Peter Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 535-6203
Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: JANUARY 9, 2012
ROMNEY HAS BIG GOP LIKELY VOTER LEAD IN FLORIDA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; MOST VOTERS SAY THEY MIGHT CHANGE THEIR MIND
With 36 percent of Florida Republican likely primary voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Ro mney has a double-digit lead three weeks before the nation’s first big-state presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 54 percent of GOP primary voters say they still might change their mind. Twelve points back in the Republican pack is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 24 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 16 percent, the independe nt Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul is at 10 per cent with 5 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and 2 percent for former ambassador Jon Huntsma n. This first look at likely primary voters, a more select group, can’t be compared with earlier su rveys of registered voters. There is almost no gender gap in the primary selections. “Gov. Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead in Florida among likely primary voters. But t he primary is three weeks away and the results from New Hampshire and South Carolina could s hake things up in the Sunshine State,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “With more than half of voters saying they might change their mind s and more than 50 percent of them backing candidates perceived as more conservative, Romney could be vulnerable if those voters settle on one candidate.” Romney is the best-liked candidate among Florida likely GOP primary voters, with a 7 3 – 14 percent favorability rating. Santorum gets a 59 – 8 percent favorability, while 33 percent of likely voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Gingrich gets a 59 – 29 percen t favorability, while Paul has a negative 34 – 47 percent favorability. -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/January 9, 2012 – page 2 Among Florida self-professed Tea Party members, Romney and Gingrich are tied with 3 2 percent each, followed by Santorum with 19 percent, Paul with 7 percent and Perry with 4 perc ent. Tea Party members give Gingrich a 76 – 18 percent favorability, with 72 – 7 percent for Santorum and 72 – 19 percent for Romney. The race is closer among white evangelical Christians: Romney gets 28 percent to Gingri ch’s 26 percent, with 20 percent for Santorum. From January 4 – 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 560 Republican likely primary voter s with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell ph ones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
2 3 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Jon Huntsman, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Perry, Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, Paul, or Huntsman? (Table includes Leaners and early voters)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...... WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Perry 5% 5% 5% 7% 1% 6% 3% 4% 6% Gingrich 24 26 21 28 15 26 23 32 20 Romney 36 36 37 35 41 28 42 32 38 Santorum 16 17 15 17 12 20 13 19 14 Paul 10 11 10 7 15 9 9 7 12 Huntsman 2 2 2 - 7 1 3 - 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) ------DK/NA 7 3 10 6 8 10 6 7 6
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE CHOICE Q1 Tot NG MR RS
Mind made up 44% 46% 44% 41% Might change 54 53 56 57 DK/NA 1 2 1 2
5. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...... WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 59% 65% 52% 67% 45% 68% 56% 72% 54% Unfavorable 8 8 9 6 14 5 9 7 9 Hvn't hrd enough 33 27 39 26 40 27 34 20 37 REFUSED ------
6. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...... WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 34% 33% 34% 29% 41% 28% 34% 29% 36% Unfavorable 47 50 43 52 37 51 49 56 43 Hvn't hrd enough 19 16 21 17 21 19 16 15 19 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 - 1
4 7. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...... WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 59% 66% 52% 68% 44% 67% 59% 76% 53% Unfavorable 29 25 34 25 42 25 33 18 35 Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 10 5 11 8 5 5 10 REFUSED 2 1 4 2 4 1 2 1 3
8. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...... WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Favorable 73% 74% 73% 77% 67% 72% 74% 72% 74% Unfavorable 14 15 14 13 14 19 13 19 12 Hvn't hrd enough 10 11 9 9 14 7 11 8 10 REFUSED 3 1 4 2 5 2 2 1 3
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