1. Mexicans Are More Self-Absorbed, Pessimistic and Detached from the World

Executive Summary

The most noteworthy changes in the Mexican public’s mood are reflected in seven core characteristics and trends in Mexicans’ international attitudes. These seven characteristics and trends echo 2008’s rapidly evolving international panorama of increasing political and economic uncertainty.

1. Mexicans are more self-absorbed, pessimistic and detached from the world. Interest in international affairs has declined, as has the intensity and levels of contact with the outside world. At the same time, hostility towards globalization has increased.

2. Mexican nationalism is strong but is changing in its nature. National pride and the defense of oil, symbolic elements of Mexican nationalism, are strong among all groups, while Younger and more educated Mexicans are more accepting than older and less educated Mexicans of an interconnected world.

3. The gap between Mexican opinions has widened. Mexicans living in the south of the country disagree more than they did in 2004 and 2006 with Mexicans living in the center and north of the country. Mexican leaders and the public now also have more differences of opinion.Mexican leaders are more polarized by political partisanship than is the Mexican public, and politicians, government officials and business leaders, Mexico’s traditional leadership groups, have notable differences of opinion with social and media leaders, an emerging leadership group in Mexico.

4. Mexicans have lost enthusiasm for North American integration and they are disenchanted with the United States. Distrust of the United States has increased since the 2004 and 2006 surveys. More Mexicans now believe that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) needs to be renegotiated. A greater share of Mexicans now believe that their country’s proximity to the United States is more of a problem than an advantage.

5. Mexicans continue to see Latin America as a better option than other regions for Mexico’s attention, but Mexicans hold inconsistent views on how Mexico should interact with other Latin American countries. Although Mexicans agree that their country’s foreign policy should pay more attention to Latin America than any other region, they do not hold consistent views on how Mexico should behave in its regional relations. Mexicans lack the will for leadership in the region, they are ambivalent in their attitudes toward Latin American countries and they reject providing economic support for their less- developed neighbors. 6. Towards a new international agenda centered on social issues. Mexicans are more worried about world poverty, epidemics, food shortages and global warming than they are about more traditional security and economic concerns. Mexicans are less worried than they were in the previous surveys about terrorism and the international economic situation.

7. Mexicans see Asia as an opportunity for their country, but it is far from being a highly visible option. Mexicans view China’s increasing economic influence in the world as positive. They have favorable opinions of Asian countries, but do not believe that Asia should be a priority for their country’s foreign policy.

Summary of trends and results 2008

Interest, contact and identity

 Mexicans are interested in the world and are in contact with it: 52% are very or somewhat interested in the news about Mexico’s relations with other countries, 28% have traveled outside the country, 56% have relatives residing abroad, 29% have members of the immediate family living outside the country and 15% receive remittances from their relatives abroad (84% of them from the United States).

 Citizens and leaders have a strong national identity, although the local identity predominates in the south: 81% of the leaders and 59% of the general population consider themselves Mexican rather than from a region, state or location in the country; nevertheless, the local identity is stronger in the south (64%) than the national identity (35%).

 Latin American identity is stronger than the North American identity in both the population and leaders: 55% of the population consider themselves as Latin American, 7% as North American, 6% Central American and 24% as citizens of the world; similarly, among the leaders, the Latin American (51%) and international (40%) identities are stronger that the North American (5%) and the Central American (1%) identities.

 Both the leaders and the general population are relatively open to the cultural influence of other countries: 80% of the leaders and 50% of the public classify the dissemination of foreign ideas and customs in Mexico as positive. Threats, confidence and security

 Pessimistic public and optimistic leaders regarding the world: 19% of the population believes that the world is better than it was a decade ago and 23% think that it will be better in the 10 years, while 43% of the leaders believe that the world is better than a decade ago and 52% expect it to be better in the next 10 years.

 They are more concerned about issues that directly affect their wellbeing: drug-trafficking and organized crime (79%), global warming (77%), epidemics like AIDS (75%), poverty and food shortages (73%) and the global economic crises (69%). They are less concerned about issues perceived as being distant, such as the emergence of China as a world power (32%), ethnic or religious conflicts (37%), the inflow of illegal immigrants into Mexico (37%) and populist leaders (37%).

 The perceived threat of international terrorism and a tougher of US immigration policy have weakened: between 2006 and 2008, concern about terrorism decreased from 70% to 63%, and from 66% to 51% regarding the tighter immigration controls in the United States.

 The problem of drug-trafficking is seen as something very serious: to the extent that 49% would be willing to allow US agents to collaborate with Mexican authorities in the security of Mexico’s borders, ports and airports in order to tackle the issue, while 61% of the leaders oppose the idea. Additionally, 58% of the public and 76% of the leaders are very much in favor of extraditing criminals from Mexico to the United States. In the same pragmatic line, 55% of the public and 70% of the elite support receiving financial aid from the United States to fight drug-trafficking and organized crime.

Mexico’s Role and Foreign Policy

 Mexicans are not isolationists and prefer active international participation by Mexico: 69% of the population and 93% of the leaders believe that there should be active participation in global affairs.

 They have a more pragmatic than legalist or altruist approach to foreign policy: for Mexicans, the three priority foreign policy objectives are fighting drug-trafficking and organized crime (81%), protecting Mexico’s foreign interests (76%) and environmental protection (76%); the three least important are strengthening the Organization of American States - OAS (31%), promoting democracy in other countries (37%) and bolstering the UN (42%).

 The assessment of the government in foreign policy has improved, especially among leaders, but there is lingering criticism in other fields: 45% of the public and 73% of the leaders agree with the current foreign policy.

Rules of the international game: multilateralism and globalization

 The leaders want Mexico to participate in the United Nations Security Council: 75% of the leaders support Mexico’s attempt to be a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council once again, although 59% of them oppose Mexico’s having blue helmets. 60% of the public think Mexico should have them.

 Despite their traditional pacifism, the population agrees that the Security Council could authorize the use of military force against a state in critical situations: to avoid serious violations of human rights, such as genocide (70%), and to the reinstate overthrown democratic governments (59%).

 38% of Mexicans and 65% of the leaders consider globalization as positive for Mexico: while 33% and 19%, respectively, think the opposite.

 Foreign investment is welcomed, but not in strategic sectors: although 70% regard foreign investment as very or rather beneficial for the country, the majority opposes involvement in the oil sector (70%), electric power (60%), telephony (51%) and communication media (50%).

 The leaders cannot not agree on whether restrictions on foreign investment should continue: 56% of them support them in the oil sector, 65% in electricity, 86% in telephony and 74% in communication media.

 Mexicans and their leaders have a favorable opinion regarding international trade: 61% of the public and 70% of the leaders believe that it is good for the Mexican economy; 55% and 74%, respectively, consider that it is good for their own standard of living; additionally, 59% and 51%, respectively, claim that it is good for Mexican workers.

 They believe that international trade benefits Mexican agriculture less than other sectors: 50% of the general public and 42% of the leaders believe that agriculture benefits from international trade, while approximately one third of both groups (38% and 29%, respectively), claim this is not true.

North America

 Overriding distrust in the United States of America: the degree of distrust has risen substantially in recent years, in both the public and the elites. In 2004, 43% of the population harbored doubts, in 2006, 53% and in 2008, 61%; in 2006, 41% of the elites were distrustful and the figure jumped to 64% in 2008. There are major regional differences: the further from the northern border, the greater the distrust (45% of the north compared with 62% of the center and 72% of the south).

 Qualified pragmatism towards the United States of America: in 2006, 54% of the Mexicans stated high or limited agreement that Mexico and the United States should form a single country, if this meant an improvement in their standard of living; in 2008 the number dropped to 45%.

 NAFTA must be renegotiated: most Mexicans (73%) and also their leaders (72%) believe that Mexico should try to renegotiate NAFTA, especially the farming chapter, even if this means losing some of the benefits acquired.

 The counterweight of the United States is not always the option preferred by Mexicans: 45% of the public thinks that Mexico should strive for special treatment by the United States instead of coordinating its positions with Canada (39%). The leaders are divided: 43% prefer to act with Canada while 44% want a special deal with the United States.

Latin America

 Latin America is the region that should be given the most attention: that is the opinion of 37%, while 30% think that preference should be given to North America, 10% to Europe, 5% to Africa, 3% to Asia, 2% to the Middle East and 1% to Oceania.

 In Latin America, more cooperation than leadership: 46% of the public and 54% of the leaders think that Mexico should coordinate with Latin American countries, without trying to be a regional leader, whereas 41% and 45%, respectively, believe Mexico should be the leader.

 Great Mexican influence in the region: the public believes that Mexico has been the most influential country in the region in the last decade (22%) and it will be in the next one (28%); the leaders disagree with this opinion and make Brazil the leader, both in the past (64%) and in the future (54%).

 Discrepancy on the likelihood of conflicts in Latin America: There is no coincidence among the population and elites on the probability of an armed conflict in the region; 41% of the public regard strife as more likely and 57% of the leaders as less likely.

 Caution regarding situations of conflict and violence in the region: if a Latin American government is overthrown, 39% think that Mexico should wait for the international reaction and then act. 32% believe that such public acts should be publically condemned without severing diplomatic relations and 15% favor breaking diplomatic ties. The leaders favor condemnation without breaking relations (59%), over breaking ties (18%) or waiting for international reaction (11%).

 Multilateralism for the solution of Latin American conflicts: 60% of the general population believes that the UN should act to solve conflicts, while the elite give the responsibility to the OAS (35%) and the UN (34%).

 Consensus on Venezuela as the most controversial country in the region: Venezuela is the country that has generated most of the regional conflicts in the last 10 years and will do so in the next decade, in both the public opinion (23% and 24%) and the elites (67% and 60%).

 Low commitment with Central America: 42% of the public and 65% of the leaders believe that Mexico should channel economic resources to promote the economic development of the Central American nations. Additionally, the opinion of Central American immigrants is more unfavorable (for 48% of the population and 49% of the leaders) than favorable (41% and 46%, respectively).

 Integration priorities in the Americas: 35% of Mexicans and 37% of their leaders hold the opinion that Mexico’s priority should be to integrate with Latin America and 30% and 27%, respectively, with North America.

 They foresee a more integrated Latin America and North America: 73% of Mexicans and 89% of their leaders think that there will be more economic integration among Latin American nations. Similarly, 71% and 85%, respectively consider that the economic integration of Mexico, the United States and Canada will increase.

 Classic measures regarding immigrants in Mexico are gaining ground: almost half the population (45%) and most of the leaders (59%) are in favor of establishing a temporary work program for Central Americans, while 36% and 29%, respectively, prefer to establish controls on the southern border to prevent unauthorized entry into the country, there is even a minority of 8% who think a wall should be built on the border with Guatemala and Belize.

 As regards immigration, Mexicans see the mote in someone else's eye: 71% believe that Mexico treats the Central American immigrants better than Mexicans are treated in the United States.

Relations with other countries and regions

 Mexicans have more favorable feelings towards developed countries, such as Germany, Canada Spain or Japan than for developing nations, including those in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Chile, El Salvador, Guatemala, Peru or Venezuela.  The public approves of China’s economic growth, although the leaders are fearful: 46% of the public believe that the emergence of China as an economic power is positive for the world, while 59% of the leaders see it as something negative.