3 Intelligent Well Technology: Status and Opportunities for Developing Marginal Reserves SPE s2

THE CONTRIBUTION OF BIOENERGY TO THE 2020-RES-TARGETS IN AUSTRIA AND OTHER CENTRAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Gerald Kalt, Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economics Group, Tel.: +43 1 58801/37363, [email protected] Lukas Kranzl, Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economics Group, Tel.: +43 1 58801/37351, [email protected] Reinhard Haas, Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economics Group, Tel.: +43 1 58801/37352, [email protected]

Overview

Among the different renewable energy sources (RES), biomass is of crucial importance for the future energy supply in Central Europe (CE). Not only because it already has the highest share of all RES, but also because of its vast potentials and the fact that it can be used in all energy sectors: for sole heat and electricity or combined heat and power generation as well as for the production of transport fuels.

The purpose of this work is to provide insight into the perspectives of bioenergy utilization in Austria and other CE countries (Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia) with a focus on the achievable contribution of bioenergy to the 2020-RES-targets (as defined in the directive on the promotion of RES [1]). Furthermore, the long- term achievable shares of domestic biomass resources to the future energy supply in these countries are illustrated.

Methods

The methodological approach consists of the following steps: First, the current use of biomass in the considered countries is described and compared, regarding the following characteristics: the share of biomass in the total energy consumption, the structure of bioenergy utilization (e.g. for heat, electricity and transport) and the historic development in recent years. Furthermore, reasons for the different structures of biomass utilization in the considered countries are analyzed.

Second, the perspectives for an increase in bioenergy utilization are assessed. For this purpose, numerous studies on biomass primary energy potentials, scenarios about the future bioenergy and RES deployment [2], and on the development of the total energy consumption are considered. For Austria, a more detailed illustration of various scenarios of the development of the bioenergy sector, based on different framework conditions (e.g. fuel price development, total energy demand, bioenergy support schemes) is carried out [3]. As a third step, we will draw conclusions from the comparison of current use, potentials, targets and scenarios in each country and the whole region. These conclusions will relate to the development of the bioenergy sector in central Europe until 2020 and beyond.

Results

Currently, the contribution of biomass to the energy supply in CE countries varies from about 2.5% in Italy to close to 12% in Austria. Figure 2a illustrates the current share of biomass and wastes in the gross inland consumption in CE countries (2006). Figure 2b, on the other hand, illustrates what could theoretically be achieved with domestic biomass resources in 2030. However, these high biomass shares can only be achieved if ambitious energy efficiency measures are implemented (efficiency scenario according to [6]) and the environmentally compatible biomass potentials according to [5] are utilized exhaustively. The actually realizable biomass share (with economic and non-economic barriers on both demand and supply side taken into account) can be considered significantly lower.

Simulations of the future development of the bioenergy sector under different framework conditions provide a better insight into the relevance of influencing factors like fossil fuel price developments, bioenergy support schemes etc. and illustrate what can actually be achieved with the enhanced use of biomass. For the case of Austria, numerous simulation

runs have been carried out with the dynamic simulation model Green-XBio-Austria. These scenarios give an insight into the possible future role of bioenergy in Austria’s future energy supply, and what measures are necessary for achieving a high contribution of biomass. The results are presented in the long version of this paper. 2 Intelligent Well Technology: Status and Opportunities for Developing Marginal Reserves SPE

PL PL 10 – 15% 0 – 2.5% DE DE 15 – 20% 2.5 – 5% CZ CZ 20 – 25% SK 5 – 7.5% SK 25 – 30% 7.5 – 10% AT AT HU HU > 30% > 10% SI SI IT IT

Figure 2: Share of biomass and wastes in the total gross inland consumption in 2006 (a) [4] and theoretically achievable biomass share in 2030 (b), based on biomass potentials according to [5] and the efficiency scenario according to [6]

Conclusions There are vast unused biomass primary energy potentials in CE. Among the considered countries, only in Germany and Austria more than 50% of the environmentally compatible biomass potential is currently utilized. Therefore, bioenergy has the potential to significantly contribute to the fulfillment of the 2020-RES-targets. Simulations according to [2] suggest that for achieving the 2020-target values included in the 2008-RES-directive, the domestically available biomass resource potentials have to be exploited to a large extent in CE countries. Apart from that, it is crucial that energy efficiency measures are taken. Only if both the mobilization and use of biomass resources is promoted (which is necessary for overcoming economic and non-economic barriers), and measures in the field of energy efficiency are adopted, the share of RES in the total energy consumption is likely to increase significantly (respectively amount to the 2020-target values).

References

[1] European Commission, 2008a, Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources, COM(2008) 19 final, Brussels (2008)

[2] G. Resch, 2008a, T. Faber, C. Panzer, R. Haas, Energy Economics Group, Ragwitz M., Held A., Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research, Futures-E, 20% RES by 2020 – A balanced scenario to meet Europe’s renewable energy target, Intelligent Energy for Europe-Programme, Vienna (2008)

[3] R. Haas, L. Kranzl, G. Kalt , F. Diesenreiter, L. Eltrop, A. König, P. Makkonen, Strategien zur optimalen Erschließung der Biomassepotenziale in Österreich bis zum Jahr 2050 mit dem Ziel einer maximalen Reduktion an Treibhausgasemissionen, Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna (2008)

[4] Eurostat website, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ [accessed March 2009]

[5] EEA, 2006, T. Wiesenthal, A. Mourelatou, J.-E. Peterson, European Environment Agency, P. Taylor, AEA Technology, How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment? EEA Report No 7/2006; Kopenhagen (2006)

[6] P. Capros, L. Mantzos, V. Papandreou, N. Tasios, European Energy and Transport – Trends to 2030 – Update 2007, European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of the National Technical University of Athens (2008)