Based on the Projections, in the Next 150 Years, China S Birth Rate Will Remain Constant

China:

China 2005 2050 2100 2150 Birth rate (per woman) 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 Death rate .3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.78% Growth rate .6% -.58% -1.04% -1.08% Based on the projections, in the next 150 years, China’s birth rate will remain constant at around 1.62 children per woman while the percentage of population dying will increase and then level off at around 1.8%. The total population growth rate will change from the current of .6% to about -1.08% in 2150.

Since China is in the post-industrial phase of the demographic transition, it has a relatively stable population. Climate isn’t a big factor for population growth, unless the change is very dramatic; for example, if the sea level were to rise by 10m, many major cities along the coast such as Shanghai would be underwater. Though China has a relatively stable population, it is still developing and expanding. China is depleting its natural resources to bring economic gains and in the future it is going to be a problem. Many areas in China are also very short on water supply due to the destruction of the environment and desertification. The eastern coast of China is full of major cities and very densely populated, compared to the western half that is scarcely populated. The growth is also mainly around current cities as they will continue to expand in the future. China needs to use the smart growth approach to population growth in order to protect the environment. Technically, there is still a lot of land available for use in the middle and western parts of china, but these lands are not the best for agriculture. China also has tremendous amount of air and water pollution, something needs to be done about these problems soon before more damage occurs.

India:

India 2005 2050 2100 2150 Birth rate (per woman) 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 Death rate .39% .94% 1.07% 1.07% Growth rate 1.55% .76% .54% .54% Based on the predictions, for the next 150 years, India’s birth rate will remain the same while its percentage death rate will increase and then level off at 1.07%. The total population growth rate will decrease from 1.55% to .54%

India is not as developed as USA or China; it is only in the mature industrial age of the demographic transition. India is going to have a lot of problems if its birth rate doesn’t drop sometime soon because currently, India has about the same population as China but the land area of India compared to China’s is much smaller. India has large cities all over its entire country so if the population keeps on expanding, soon it is going to run out of space. It also has the problem that if the sea level were to rise about 10m, some of its largest cities that are located along the shore line are going to be partially underwater. The large population India has to support is taking a big toll on its environment. Some of the biggest problems are deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, etc. When you have so many people living in such a small area, air and water pollution are going to be a huge problem. India’s development is very much dependent on its climate, especially the annual monsoons. If global warming or other problems were to distort the pattern of monsoons, India is going to be in big trouble. The government needs to start issuing policies protecting the environment from being harmed more and use smart growth strategies to plan population growth because it will run into the problem of running out of land space soon.

Mexico

Fig. 1, Demographic Graphs of Mexico and USA

2000 2050 2100 2150 Birthrate 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 (children/woman) Deathrate .51 1.23 1.15 1.15 (percent/year) Population .92 -.06 .06 0 Growth (percent/year) United States of America Because of where it is in the demographic transition (post-industrial), the growth progresses to 0% by 2150, as seen in Fig. 1. Therefore climate is rather irrelevant due to the level of technology present. Even though the population is leveling off, there may still be natural resource issues in the future because the US running low on natural resources and relying on foreign trade. The US also has limited fresh water resources in the west. From a strictly numerical approach, America has geographic mass to continue to grow because of the empty areas in the Midwest and Alaska. However, these areas are not attractive to live in so growth will most likely occur in cities, causing larger cities to exhaust their resources. If population grows in this way (increasing density), there will be greater environmental effects in those areas, like air pollution and acid rain. If future growth extends into rural areas, it would be better for land resources in the United States. However, this may not be possible because many of the rural areas are not lived in because of lack of resources.

Mexico:

2000 2050 2100 2150 Birthrate 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.43 (children/woman) Deathrate .25 .75 92 .91 (percent/year) Population Growth 1.41 .96 .66 .64 (percent/year) Mexico

With a climate varying from tropical to desert, Mexico may face a variety of different concerns in the future because of its increasing population due to still being early in its demographic transition, as seen in Fig. 1. Population increases in Mexico will have a strong affect on its natural resources since Mexico already has severe resource problems. With a scarcity of hazardous waste disposal facilities and natural water resources, air/water population, and dwindling agricultural areas, Mexico may face more serious problems in the future, as its population continues to grow. A geographic characteristic related to the growth trends in Mexico is its closeness to the US, as 3.84 Mexican’s immigrate somewhere else per 1,000 in population, many going into the US. While this was not included in our simulation, it is an important factor in Mexico’s demographics, as losing its young workers to immigration could hurt it economically. Population growth in Mexico could accentuate current environmental concerns such as water pollution, deforestation, widespread erosion, and desertification.

Nigeria:

2000 2050 2100 2150 Birthrate 4.78 4.78 4.78 4.78 (children/woman) Deathrate .26 .36 .36 .36 (percent/year) Population 2.46 3.58 3.61 3.62 Growth (percent/year) Nigeria:

Nigeria has a varying climate throughout. Some areas are equatorial, others tropical, and still more arid. This can cause a small scale demographic transition within in the country, with those regions less equipped for agriculture and urbanization (arid) being behind the regions with more moderate climates. Though the country is in the mechanization of agriculture/industrialization stage, some regions may still have pre-industrial conditions. Were the entire country in a later stage they may have possessed the necessary technology to compensate for the less arable land, but they are not. As shown in figure 1, Nigeria is expected to continue growing and thus depleting the resources in potentially unstable environments, unless it practices smart growth, and efficient urbanization where it minimizes infrastructure and transportation needs and maximizes the availablity of services thus minimizing its effect on the environment. The geographic conditions that play a part in population trends don't necessarily control the magnitude of the population, but its density. The people of Nigeria probably concentrate in regions with an abundant resource, whether it be water like near rivers, or arable land like that in other places of the country. Nigeria has an EXTREMELY high dependency ratio unlike other stable countries like the United States and China. However, this ratio could be used to benefit the country if it were to grow so that jobs were readily available to young workers, as the dependents are mainly people between the ages of 0-15 with very few people living passed 40-50 yrs. If NIgeria were to make jobs readily available it could reach a demographic dividend which would boost the economy. Another difference from this and other more stable countries is also its largest hindrance, the high occurrence of HIV/AIDS in the country.

EGYPT 2005 2050 2100 2150 Birth Rate 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.83 Death Rate .41% .79% .82% .82% Population Growth 2% 1.32% 1.33% 1.31%

In Egypt, the population is dependent on the Nile. It is the main source of sustenance. There are some towns on the Mediterranean that are supported by the sea, but the majority of people live along the mouth of the Nile. They put a strain on the river by withdrawing water and controlling the floods. If the snowcaps of Ethiopia (whose melting feed the Nile) were to shrink, the population of Egypt would be hurt. They would have to deal with less water. In addition, if the sea level were to rise, salt water from the Mediterranean could increase the salinity of the foot of the Nile. This would make the delta nonarable. Egypt’s population is based around the mouth of the Nile. An increasing popu-lation such as the current trend, would exacerbate the effect of increased salinity by affecting more people. Even without increased salinity, the increased population would strain the delta. It has already reached its agricultural capacity (Egypt imports more than it exports). Another concern of the growing population would be water use. They might reach the point where they have to choose between flooding the Nile to increase soil fertility and letting it run to have drinking water. A policy that could prevent this problem is water rationing. ITALY:

ITALY 2005 2050 2100 2150 Birth Rate 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 Death Rate .72% 2.14% 2.06% 2.16% Population Growth .35% -1.33% -2.11% -2.5%

Italy is in the same area as Egypt (Mediterranean), but it faces very different challenges. It has an aging population that will stretch its human resources, but it does not have a growing population that will further stretch its natural resources. Its population trend is not a result of climate change, but a result of a voluntary low birth rate. Economically, the trend will probably hit southern Italy the hardest. Southern Italy is dependent on agriculture, while the more densely populated North is industrialized and sustains itself on production of goods. If the climate of the South became inhospitable to grapes or olives (fragile, important, high priced crops) the effect on the economy and politics of the area could be catastrophic. However, rising sea levels would not affect the high elevation South. While, the North would have flooding in Pisa and Venice if the sea rose as little as two meters. The affect of Italy’s declining population on the environment is uncertain. It could be positive, because fewer people will need less. But, it could place a strain on the environment, if the young population is filled with immigrants, or if the decreased population decides that it wants to spread out (because of lower density.) It should also be noted that Italy has been developed for over two thousand years. Much of its environment is already artificial. Italy and Egypt both have limited resources. They both import more than they export, and are both limited by their location (Egypt in the desert, Italy on a peninsula with mountains). Both populations stress there environments, but Egypt’s stress is increasing. Italy is dealing with the impact of past generations. The US and China are the largest producers of wheat in the world. China is the leading producer of rice. In contrast, Nigeria now needs to import food (CIA Fact Book.) However, there does not seem to be a correlation between stability of the population and availability of natural resources. The USA, stable, and Egypt, increasing, import more than they export. Nigeria, increasing, and China, stable, export more than they import. In conclusion, different nations face different environmental issues in the future based on their place in the demographic conditions, economics factors, and geographic factors. In some countries, current environmental concerns will worsen, but in others, many new concerns may arise as a result of their demographic changes. While some countries are increasing at a more rapid rate, this does not necessarily mean that they face more aggravated environmental issues. However, it is worrisome that some of these nations have not yet fully industrialized because when they do, the world will face a lot of people producing a lot of pollution.