PROJECT IDENTIFICATION FORM (PIF) PROJECT TYPE: FULL-SIZED PROJECT TYPE OF TRUST FUND:LDCF

PART I: PROJECT IDENTIFICATION Project Title: Strengthening climate information and early warning systems in Eastern and Southern Africa for climate resilient development and adaptation to climate change Country(ies): Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Uganda GEF Project ID: 4975 GEF Agency(ies): UNDP GEF Agency Project ID: 5075 Other Executing Submission Date: May 3, 2012 Partner(s): GEF Focal Area (s): Climate Change Adaptation Project Duration (months): 36 months Name of parent Agency Fee ($): 2,090,000 programme: For SFM/REDD+

A. FOCAL AREA STRATEGY FRAMEWORK: Focal Area Expected FA Expected FA Outputs Trust Indicative grant amount ($) Indicative co- Objectives Outcomes Fund financing ($) CCA-2 Outcome 2.2 Output 2.2.1 LDCF 5,524,000 49,600,000 Strengthened adaptive Adaptive capacity of capacity to reduce risks national early warning to climate-induced networks strengthened to economic losses rapidly respond to extreme weather events

CCA-3 Outcome 3.1 Output 3.1.1: Relevant LDCF 14,400,000 70,629,503 Promote transfer and Successful adaptation adoption of demonstration, technology transferred to adaptation deployment, and targeted groups technology transfer of relevant adaptation technology Output 3.2.1: Skills in targeted areas increased for relevant individuals in transfer of adaptation technology Sub-total 19,924,000 120,229,503 Project management cost 976,000 5,891,246 Total project cost 20,900,000 126,120,749

1 B. PROJECT FRAMEWORK

2 Project Objective: To strengthen Eastern and Southern Africa’s climate monitoring capabilities, early warning systems and available information for responding to climate shocks and planning adaptation to climate change. Trust Indicative Indicative Project Grant Fund Grant co- Expected Outcomes Expected Outputs Component type Amount ($) financing ($) LDCF 13,900,000 13,185,891 Transfer of INV 1. Enhanced capacity of 1.1 Procurement and technologies for national hydro- installation or climate and meteorological (NHMS) and rehabilitation (in case environmental environmental institutions to of existing) of 5+ monitoring monitor extreme weather an hydrological infrastructure d climate change. monitoring stations in each country with telemetry, archiving and data processing facilities. 1.2 Procurement and installation or rehabilitation of 20+ meteorological monitoring stations in each country with telemetry, archiving and data processing facilities. 1.3 Procurement and installation or rehabilitation of radar for monitoring severe weather where needed (5 countries). 1.4 Procurement and installation or rehabilitation of at least 5 upper air monitoring stations (for all countries). 1.5 Procurement and installation or rehabilitation of satellite monitoring equipment to receive real time climate and environmental information (5 countries). 1.6 Training of at least 3-5 officers in each country to maintain and repair equipment, computer infrastructure and telecommunications (approx. $500,000). LDCF 4,529,000 105,137,034 Cli 2. Efficient and effective use 2.1 NHMS capacity to make and TA mate of hydro-meteorological and use climate forecasts (on daily to infor environmental information seasonal, as well as medium- to mati for making early warnings long-term timescales) is on and long-term development strengthened by training at least 4 inte plans. forecasters per country. (approx. grat $500,000) ed 2.2 Tailored sector-specific early into INV warning products that link climate, deve environmental and socio-economic lop information on a range of men timescales are developed, based on t identified user needs. (approx. plan $800,000) s and INV 2.3 National capacity for earl assimilating forecasts and 3 y monitoring into existing development planning, PRSPs and C. INDICATIVE CO-FINANCING FOR THE PROJECT BY SOURCE AND BY NAME IF AVAILABLE, ($) Type of Sources of Co-financing Name of Co-financier Amount ($) Co-financing National Government Government of Ethiopia/GFDRR In-Kind 1,750,000 National Government Government of Malawi In-Kind 38,900,000 National Government Government of Malawi/GFDRR In-Kind 1,114,000 National Government Government of Tanzania/WFP/UNICEF In-Kind 15,480,000 National Government Government of Uganda/World Bank Loan 18,000,000 GEF Agency UNDP Grant 40,476,749 Bilateral agency Government of Finland Grant 10,400,000 CSO Total Co-financing 126,120,749

4 D. GEF RESOURCES REQUESTED BY AGENCY, FOCAL AREAS AND COUNTRY GEF TYPE OF Country Project Agency Fee Total FOCAL AREA AGENCY TRUST FUND name/Global amount (a) (b) c=a+b

Total GEF Resources

PART II: PROJECT JUSTIFICATION 1. This PIF is the result of a bundling of several country requests to access LDCF financing for establishing Early Warning Systems (EWS) to assist with national level efforts to manage climate change risks. The proposed project responds to priorities and actions identified in the NAPAs of Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Uganda that are similar in scope. These priorities all articulate the need for securing, transferring and installing critical technologies, as well as developing the necessary systems for climate change-related information to permeate into decision-making processes. The technologies required to achieve these aims will increase the capacity of the national early warning networks to forewarn and rapidly respond to extreme climate events. The project is formulated for submission under a single PIF, rather than a series of individual PIFs because: many needs are consistent across all countries and there are cost advantages to scaling up equipment purchases and technology transfer, not to mention economies of scale in technical assistance and knowledge sharing. The total amount of funding requested per country, as articulated in the Letters of Endorsement and not including PPG and agency fee are: Ethiopia (USD 4,900,000), Malawi (USD 4,000,000), Tanzania (USD 4,000,000), Zambia (USD 4,000,000) and Uganda (USD 4,000,000). 2. Based on information in the NAPAs of the above countries, NAPA priority projects on Early Warning Systems (EWS) are clearly articulated for all countries, along with projects associated with Food security, Water resources and Terrestrial ecosystems. In some cases, EWS are explicitly mentioned as NAPA priority projects (in Ethiopia, Malawi, Zambia, and Uganda); in other cases, EWS needs are embedded as priority activities under NAPA projects on food security, health and water resources (Tanzania). EWS are often not associated with any one particular sector and are expected to be relevant to multiple sectors, including the food/agriculture, water management, coastal management, health and energy sectors.

Early Education Cross- Food Coastal Warning / capacity Terrestrial Water sectoral security zones Systems building Energy Health Infrastructure Insurance Ecosystems resources Ethiopia          Malawi    Tanzania       Zambia        Uganda        Table 1: NAPA identified priority sectors and total number of projects identified within each sector.

5 A1. DESCRIPTION OF THE CONSISTENCY OF THE PROJECT WITH:

A.1.1 The GEF focal area strategies: 3. This project is fully in line with LDCF/SCCF focal area objective 2 “Increase adaptive capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change, including variability, at local, national, regional and global level” and objective 3: Promote transfer and adoption of adaptation technology. It is specifically aligned with outcomes linked to these objectives including increased knowledge and understanding of climate variability and change-induced risks at country level and in targeted vulnerable areas, strengthened adaptive capacity to reduce risks to climate-induced economic losses, successful demonstration, deployment, and transfer of relevant adaptation technology in targeted areas and enhanced enabling environment to support adaptation related technology transfer.

A.1.2. For projects funded from LDCF/SCCF: the LDCF/SCCF eligibility criteria and priorities: 4. Country ownership: The Governments of Ethiopia, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and Uganda have ratified the UNFCCC and are classified among the non-Annex 1 parties. These countries have also developed and submitted their National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA) and are entitled to benefit from the LDC Fund for the implementation of priority measures identified in their respective NAPAs. In implementing priority interventions identified in the NAPAs, the project is consistent with the Conference of Parties (COP-9) and also satisfies criteria outlined in UNFCCC Decision 7/CP.7 and GEF/C.28/18. 5. The project focus is aligned with the scope of expected interventions as articulated in the LDCF programming paper and decision 5/CP.9. As climate impacts fall disproportionately on the poor, the project recognizes the links between adaptation and poverty reduction (GEF/C.28/18, 1(b), 29).

6. Compliance with programme and LDC Fund policies: The project complies with the NAPA- identified urgent needs, all of which are relevant for supporting national development goals and for achieving MDGs 1, 3, 6 and 7.

7. Financing: The project is designed to accommodate the additional adaptation costs of priority actions identified in the NAPAs and build on several other baseline projects and programmes. The co-funding for this project is also within the stated guidelines, with more than $25m in prospective co-funding. The relevance of the co-financing to the proposed LDCF project is outlined below and will be further elaborated on during the project preparation phase.

8. Institutional Synergy and Coordination: The project outcomes will be primarily implemented through national implementation. The PIF therefore outlines project management costs that will be incurred by implementing partners at the national level (below 5%). A cross country component, to facilitate the procurement of technologies and technical support to the countries will be either directly through UNDP or through Agency Execution. The exact modalities including cost implications will be explored during the PPG phase and details will be spelt out in the project document. 9. The project is aligned with the framework of Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP) in all countries. The central goals are of the PRPSs is to revitalize the main economic sectors of the countries, notably agriculture, fisheries and primary industries, in order to contribute to inclusive and sustainable economic development and growth, and to provide food security and nutrition, as well as employment. Details of individual country PRSPs that will be advanced are given below:

6  Ethiopia’s PRSP pillars: Agricultural Development Led Industrialization by improving information for risk management and Capacity building in public and private sectors by encouraging services to be used by the private sector  Malawi’s PRSP pillars: Improving the Quality of Life for the Most Vulnerable (providing sustainable safety nets) by reducing vulnerability to natural disasters and Good Governance by providing systems that protect and benefit the poor.  Tanzania’s PRSP pillars: Growth for Reduction of Income Poverty (which includes a climate adaptation component) and Improvement of Quality of Life and Social Well-Being (improve survival and well-being of vulnerable groups).  Zambia’s PRSP pillars: Governance (improved security, including security from natural disaster) and Agriculture (technology development and food security efforts).  Uganda’s PSRP pillars: Economic Management (includes development of the agriculture sector) and Security, conflict-resolution and disaster-management.

9. The project outcomes are closely aligned and coordinated with efforts already underway within Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Uganda to promote development which is resilient to climate change at the national and local levels. The project is focused on strengthening the capacity of national and sub-national entities in the afore mentioned countries to monitor climate change, generate reliable hydro-meteorological information (including forecasts) and to be able to combine this information with other environmental and socio-economic data to improve evidence-based decision-making for early warning and adaptation responses as well as planning. The proposed project will be implemented at the country level by the lead Ministry mandated to advance climate monitoring including management of climate data in full collaboration with other relevant line Ministries who rely on the information for planning purposes (Disaster Management, Agriculture, Water, Finance and Planning etc). Sub national authorities (Provincial and/or District officers, Municipalities, civil society (women and youth associations, NGOs, media, farmers’ associations) and the private sector will all also be important stakeholders (as end users) and will be provided with the space and opportunity to contribute to the design of the project in each country. Details of the institutional coordination will be spelt out in the project document that is prepared during the PPG phase with the full participation of key stakeholders in each country including GEF OFP, UNFCCC FP, and other key senior Government officials including private sector and civil society representations as well as donor representatives.

10. Monitoring and Evaluation: The implementation of the project’s activities will reflect UNDP- GEF monitoring and evaluation standards and procedures, in line with the requirements of the LDCF. Details for monitoring and evaluation will be articulated during the project development phase.

A.2. National strategies and plans or reports and assessments under relevant conventions, if applicable, i.e. NAPAS, NAPs, NBSAPs, national communications, TNAs, NIPs, PRSPs, NPFE, etc.:

11. The link between this project strategy and the NAPA of each of the countries in this bundled NAPA priorities project is centered on a common goal of informing climate resilient development planning and sector management through improved national systems that generate relevant climate information. 12. The sections below explain in detail the manner in which EWS related projects and activities are reflected in the NAPAs of each of the participating countries.

7 Ethiopia 13. Ethiopia’s second adaptation priority action listed in the NAPA is “Strengthening/enhancing drought and flood early warning systems in Ethiopia.” The NAPA states that “The National Meteorological services in Ethiopia do not have adequate capacity to provide accurate and timely user specific weather and climate forecast.” Resources are requested to finance activities that will enable:  Assessment of existing early warning systems needs and identify gaps in the country;  Improve monitoring and prediction facilities;  Improve the observational network;  Upgrade the telecommunication network through modern technologies;  Improve data processing systems and automation of date quality control, analysis and archival;  Develop skilled human resources;  Provide specialized training in Numerical weather prediction(NWP), climate modelling; information technology, meteorological equipment and instrument maintenance. Malawi 14. The Malawi NAPA espouses multiple EWS-related needs as its priority adaptation actions. In particular, EWS needs are highlighted for “extension deliveries to the farming communities” (Priority Action 3) and for “sustainable utilization of Lake Malawi and lakeshore areas resources” (Priority Action 5).1 These priorities have not been implemented comprehensively, though some work on EWS in Malawi has been completed through the UNDP-support, Government of Japan financed Africa Adaptation Programme (AAP) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) projects (see below), as well as by NGOs in some locations. 15. Malawi’s NAPA project priority #4 on “Improving Malawi’s Preparedness to cope with droughts and floods” features the implementation of both flood and drought early warning systems. The project’s includes priority activities for strengthening the “Forecasting and Early Warning system” including “Capacity building (training staff to man the systems).” The lead institution identified in the NAPA is the Department of Meteorology in collaboration with the Ministry of Water Development, Ministry of Agriculture, NGOs, CBOs, local communities and The Malawi Polytechnic (Civil Engineering Dept.). 16. Malawi’s NAPA project priority #5 on “Improving climate monitoring to enhance Malawi’s early warning capability and decision making and sustainable utilization of Lake Malawi and lakeshore areas resources,” features a climate monitoring and early warning system on Lake Malawi and lakeshore areas for pre-disaster preparedness to rural fishing and farming communities. It also benefits fisheries, transport, tourism, water and hydropower energy sectors. Tanzania 17. The need to strengthen EWS is recognized as a potential adaptation activity for the Agriculture sector, as well as for both the Water and Health sectors. The development of an efficient and well coordinated early warning system, especially one focused on drought and flood, and one that supports emergency response and anticipatory planning, in all Districts is highlighted as an urgent and immediate need. Specific activities that have been requested include:  Technology transfer such as Automatic Weather, Upper Air Stations including hydrogen generator (purchasing and installation);  Forecasting and Data Visualization Tools;  Data storage facilities for real time data management functionality;  Laboratory equipment for temperature calibration;  Technical support and skills development in Mapping Disaster prone areas in the country; 1 Malawi NAPA, p. ix

8  Awareness to end users on weather and climate information;  Policy development for agriculture and water sectors using information generated by early warning systems.

Zambia 18. Zambia’s NAPA identifies the provision of irrigation/water management, sustainable land management and the promotion of a stronger role of early warning systems for adaptation as the top priorities for facilitating better management of climate-related risks. Its Priority Action number 2 project, “Strengthening of early warning systems to improve services to preparedness and adaptation to climate change,” the following activities are featured:  Development of infrastructure for early warning advanced planning purposes;  Establishment of a National Climate Centre;  Collection of the required climate, environmental and health data;  Conducting field surveys in representative localities to identify climatic and non climatic disease risk factors;  Establishment of an effective climate data management system;  Development of Human capacity for regular monitoring of climate stations for data quality;  Devising an effective information dissemination process to all sectors that may be affected by climate change. 19. NAPA consultations also suggested that indigenous knowledge for climate forecasting could be further studied and integrated into a climate-based early warning system for disease outbreaks. Uganda 20. Uganda’s NAPA mentions the need to strengthen climate information and EWS for agricultural producers. Two NAPA priority actions relate to disaster risk management and forecasting. Uganda’s number three priority action is the project, “Strengthening Meteorological Services.” Uganda identified the need to create an effective and adequate climate observing network; foster skilled and effective human capacity in climate management; implement a functional and effective early warning system; and develop increased use of weather and climate information by communities. The number 4 priority action, “Drought Adaptation Project,” seeks to enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities in drought-prone areas of Uganda. Although not specifically referenced, an effective agricultural EWS would strengthen the aim of the project. Neither of these projects has been implemented.

B. PROJECT OVERVIEW:

B.1. DESCRIBE THE BASELINE PROJECT AND THE PROBLEM THAT IT SEEKS TO ADDRESS:

Problem 20. Many countries in Eastern & Southern (E&S) Africa suffer from low rates of development. In particular, the countries this PIF aims to help (Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Uganda) are all within the lowest 20% of countries worldwide, ranked by both Gross National Income (GNI per capita) and the 2011 United Nations Human Development Index 2. These countries are particularly vulnerable to climate-related shocks (either to the economy or to unprotected populations), which threaten to undo years of development assistance and asset accumulation, especially within poor populations. One way to help mitigate the impact of these climate-related

2 http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2011/

9 shocks is to warn populations, businesses and governments in advance of an impending or likely damaging event through an Early Warning System (EWS). 21. The fundamental problem in all target countries is that a complete EWS, which generates knowledge of the risks (vulnerability & hazard), has capacity to monitor, analyze and forecast hazards, provides communication and dissemination of alerts and warnings, either does not exist or does not function as well as it ought to be relevant and useful for long-term planning, management and risk reduction activities. For many LDCs, this status unnecessarily imperils lives and assets. Reasons for this situation involve a lack of both hard and soft technologies and the capacity to utilise those technologies in an appropriate manner. This results in: i) a limited understanding of current and future risks; ii) limited monitoring and forecasting of climate-related hazards; iii) inappropriate communication and packaging of warnings; iv) restricted responses to impending disasters and v) constrained planning for slow-onset changes due to climate change that will require a transformational shift in economic development and risk reduction efforts. The infrastructure and technology on which to build these services is lacking in the countries this proposal will serve. Without investing in the capacity to generate information, especially the monitoring and forecasting of climate-related hazards, the EWS will never function as optimally as it could. The aim of this proposal is to strengthen the EWS of each country, largely through improving national capabilities to generate and use climate information in the planning for and management of climate induced hazard risks. It will achieve this by implementing the transfer of appropriate technology, infrastructure and skills to each country.

Changes in climate-related hazards and likely impacts 22. Africa is the continent expected to suffer the most under anthropogenic induced climate change, both due to expected increases in climate hazards and its already high vulnerabilities to those hazards across a range of sectors. All countries in this proposal are classified as a Least Developed Country (LDC) which are recognized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. These vulnerabilities span many sectors, livelihoods and assets within each country and the region in general. 23. Water is a scarce resource across the African continent and it's availability both for agriculture and domestic consumption is impacted severely by drought, which has been and will continue to increase in intensity and frequency (due to both changes in rainfall and increasing temperatures), especially in the sub-tropical and semi-arid regions bordering all the target countries. These hazardous events often lead to impacts on food security and health such as those seen recently in the horn of Africa. Flooding due to heavy rainfall over a short period of time has wreaked havoc in both urban and rural (river basins/watersheds) environments, with attendant impacts on health and the spread of disease e.g. recent floods in Mozambique/South Africa and across much of West Africa in 2009. Whilst the upswing in deaths attributed to floods in recent years may largely be due to population dynamics3, many deaths can be avoided with sufficient early warning. These risks and associated losses are expected to increase in some regions due to the increased availability of atmospheric moisture and intensity of rainfall in the future4.

3 Di Baldassarre, G., A. Montanari, H. Lins, D. Koutsoyiannis, L. Brandimarte, and G. Blöschl (2010), Flood fataliti es in Africa: From diagnosis to mitigation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22402, doi:10.1029/2010GL045467 4 IPCC, 2012:Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.A Speci al Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp

10 24. Severe weather, associated with convective weather, atmospheric heating and moisture, will likely increase in many regions and can result in increases in rain, hail and winds. Whilst changes in cyclone frequency are uncertain, most models and observations suggest an increase in cyclone intensity5 (or an increase in the frequency of more intense cyclones), therefore where cyclones are a current risk (Tanzania) they are likely to be more of a risk in the future (including impacts through several hazards - rainfall, storm surge and winds). Sea level rise is a problem for many low lying coastal areas where large populations often assemble and the slow and steady rise of mean sea level results in more frequent flooding and coastal erosion. Rises in temperature which affects all countries and regions, results in an increase in the frequency of heat waves and extremely hot days/nights, which in turn affect the health of humans, ecosystems and urban environments. 25. Changes in the above climate-related hazards will negatively affect a range of sectors. Of particular concern is the agricultural sector which is an important component of the economy in all countries and forms the basis of many rural livelihoods. Droughts, floods and increases in temperature reduce the ability to grow crops, as well as affecting other aspects of the value chain e.g. drying/storage and transport to market.

Underlying causes 26. Whilst the EWS in each of the target countries may serve different sectors or users, they also share common problems; i) insufficient meteorological and hydrological observing stations to monitor the current state of the climate and hydrology, map risks and detect long-term trends; ii) insufficient use of satellite data for monitoring different aspects of the environment and providing information in regions not covered by the meteorological and hydrological stations; iii) limited use of climate forecasts on daily to seasonal timescales and; iv) limited packaging of different sources of information to inform risk reduction efforts in different sectors; v) inappropriate communication of EWS messages and vi) lack of trained personnel to effectively run and maintain the different aspects of the EWS. 27. A lack of meteorological and hydrological monitoring stations in all target countries has meant that many important regions and populations vulnerable to climate hazards are not monitored e.g. drought conditions (rainfall) are not monitored for important agricultural lands, intense rainfall is not monitored in areas prone to landslides and flooding, and rapid rises in rivers as a precursor to flooding goes unnoticed. Therefore many potentially threatening hazards are not forewarned because of a lack of monitoring stations. Where stations exist they are often manually operated and do not report measurements for days to weeks after the climate hazard has passed. Equipment failure is also common and regular checks and maintenance often neglected due to insufficient funds, incentives and regulatory policies resulting in poor quality and unreliable data for making management decisions related to climate change induced disaster risks. 28. It is now common practice to utilize satellite imagery as a useful tool for monitoring areas where meteorological and hydrological monitoring stations do not exist and aspects of the environment useful for assessing current risks e.g. vegetation monitoring helps assess crop performance and images of floods help understand which areas are more at risk. Additionally satellite data may be used to predict rainfall or monitor severe weather. However, many developing countries do not utilize these technologies because they either do not have the means to easily access to data held overseas ), do not have the necessary equipment to access the data or do not have the human resources to access and use the data.

5 Knutson1 T, Mcbride J, Chan J, Emanuel K, Holland G, Landsea C, Held I, Kossin J, K Srivastava and M Sugi (2010). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience. doi: 10.1038/ngeo779.

11 29. The radar network for monitoring severe weather is limited in all target countries, often to airports where its main application is for air traffic control. This is largely a consequence of the high costs (for infrastructure, maintenance and human resources to run the equipment). Given most radars have a range of approximately 75-200 km covering large areas becomes very costly. 30. Climate forecasts are used by most NHMS, but only a few run Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to predict the weather for the next 1-7 days. Others rely on obtaining their predictions either from neighboring countries or international centres. Seasonal forecasts are also used by some but not all NHMS, depending on whether the skills to make these forecasts exist. In situations where forecasts are externally sourced, forecasters are dependent on the applicability of the forecasts to local conditions and restricted in their ability to apply local observations to develop better forecasts. 31. Often forecasts and climate information is given in the same standard formats for different users and this restricts their interpretation and application. For example, agricultural extension officers require information about the start of the rains, or the frequency of days with rain, whereas those monitoring floods require information on rainfall intensity. Extracting these particular attributes from forecasts is currently not undertaken. This information is then more useful when packaged with other sources of data e.g. satellite maps showing current vegetation and rainfall, or soil moisture as an indication of flooding potential etc. 32. Further problems are caused by a lack of trained personnel who are capable of maintaining an observational network, generating information for specific sectors, as well as interpreting the data in ways that non-technical stakeholders can understand. This human capacity is required to:  Replace components of the observing networks when they fail;  Manage and run any forecast models;  Understand how users interpret data and design information packages that address these needs;  Be able to combine, manipulate and overlay different data to identify areas at risk.

Long-term solution and barriers to achieving it: 33. It is expected that as climate change unfolds the frequency and intensity of climate related shocks will change, therefore improving EWSs is one way to adapt to a changing climate. As an adaptive measure EWS also benefit the poorer segments of society, those who do not necessarily benefit from large protective infrastructure projects6. Furthermore, improving the EWS also provides benefits for long term planning and helps NHMS and other institutions build capacity to service other needs e.g. for land-use and agricultural planning, hydro-electric power etc.

34. To allow countries to better manage severe weather related disasters, food security and agricultural production, scarce and dwindling water resources and make their socioeconomic development process less vulnerable to climate-related risks it is essential to:  enhance the capacity of hydro-meteorological services and networks for predicting climatic events and associated risks;  develop a more effective, efficient and targeted delivery of climate information including early warnings;  support improved and timely preparedness and response to forecast climate-related risks and vulnerabilities. 35. These objectives require developing robust weather and climate observation, forecasting, and monitoring infrastructure, which can be rapidly deployed, is relatively easy to maintain, and 6 World Bank (2010). Natural hazards, Unnatural disasters: Effective prevention through an economic lens. World Bank and United Nations. 231 pp.

12 simple to use. Such a weather and climate monitoring system can provide countries with the capacity to develop: (i) an early warning system for severe weather; (ii) real-time weather and hydrological monitoring; (iii) weather forecasting capabilities (Numerical Weather Prediction); (iv) agro-meteorological information and services (including integrated crop and pest management); (v) applications related to building and management of infrastructure; (vi) land, air and maritime transport management; (vii) integrated water resources management; (viii) coastal zone and land management; and (ix) planning and policy making processes. 36. However, there are significant policy, institutional, financial, technological and informational barriers that prevent the desired situation from emerging. These barriers include: Lack of weather and climate monitoring infrastructure 37. In all countries considered here there has been a steady decline in infrastructure dedicated to monitoring the climate, hydrology, environment and severe weather (e.g. meteorological and hydrological observing stations, satellite receivers and weather radar) for the last 20-30 years. Whilst this situation has been ameliorated by specifically targeted project interventions, this has often benefitted a few countries or a particular aspect of the early warning system (e.g. African Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development (AMESD)7 to improve use of satellite data or the “Weather for all” initiative to improve weather station coverage 8). Recently the need for a systematic improvement of the observing network is recognized by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)9 which in its reports to the UNFCCC notes that “Developing Countries have made only limited progress in filling gaps in their in situ observing networks, with some evidence of decline in some regions, and capacity building support remains small in relation to needs”. The installation of new infrastructure also requires several practical condiderations: i) safety of the equipment; ii) power sources; iii) long term durability; iv) access for maintenance and v) transmission and archiving of data. Limited knowledge and capacity to effectively predict future climate events 38. The scientific and technical capabilities required to effectively identify hazards and forecast their potential impacts on vulnerable communities are often weak. This may be due to a lack of either infrastructure (i.e. computational equipment), software (model code and associated routines) or human capacity/skills to programme and run the model code. Running forecast models is a highly skilled task and requires many years of education and training. Forecasters, with highly sought skills, are often lured into more lucrative work. Inconsistent use of different information sources across and within country borders 39. If there is not a clear legal mandate for the issuing of warnings then messages may be confused (between different sources) and not acted upon. There needs to be an official process for generating warnings that include communication between sectoral ministries and with communities where disasters are experienced. In some countries (e.g. Zambia), representatives from different ministries convene, assess the situation and warning messages are conveyed via disaster management, which is an inter-ministerial body mandated to issue warnings. This allows a wide range of views and evidence to be considered (including information from international and regional sources), though the process needs to be clear and act efficiently if warnings are to be issued in time. No systematic forecasting of climate hazards, risks and timely dissemination of warnings

7 http://www.amesd.org/index.php?start=25 8 http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=31193&Cr=weather&Cr1 9 http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php

13 40. When climate information is available (monitoring and forecasts), it should be translated into specific hazards experienced by different sectors and users e.g. heat units for agriculture or wave heights for managing coastal shipping. Without translation into information that can be easily understood by users, the information is unlikely to be used. This information should then be combined with known vulnerabilities to identify areas and communities at risk. This is currently not part of the process for issuing warnings in most cases. Lack of environmental databases for assessing the risks posed by climate variability and change 41. Calculating risks for known vulnerabilities requires a comprehensive archive of information related to vulnerable communities, infrastructure, roads, shipping, access to markets, flood prone areas, cropping patterns etc. This information are held in disconnected databases or computers spread across different government departments and ministries. All the information required to assess vulnerability and calculate risks needs to be accessible, either through a central database/repository, or through distributed networks. Long-term sustainability of observational infrastructure and technically skilled human resources 42. The maintenance of monitoring equipment, the human capacity to use and repair this equipment, process data and develop early warning packages, all require constant income streams and annual budgets. These are needed beyond the lifetime of this project and therefore require suitable business models and financial mechanisms to be developed. Currently most NHMS rely on budgets organized through overarching Ministries which have to juggle competing priorities, often in circumstances of reduced public expenditure. This issue has been recognized10 and various levels of public-private partnership have been suggested, including the use of an intermediary organisation11. Regardless of the business structure it is clear that delivery of targeted services, such as those proposed here, are essential for generating products and revenue that both public and private clients will pay for. This revenue can then support the maintenance of the observational infrastructure and the salaries of skilled staff to use it and generate the early warning products.

Baseline Project(s) the project will build on: 43. UNDP’s Africa Adaptation Programme (AAP), financed by the Government of Japan - is a multi-country programme working in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Tanzania, Tunisia, and Zambia. Total funding for the programme is $91m. None of this financing has been considered as co-financing as the funds are for adaptation activities. However, it is included under baseline projects as this proposal seeks funds that will build on some of these activities. 44. In Tanzania, the AAP project “Mainstreaming CCA in the National sectoral policies of Tanzania” (with financing of $2.97m) seeks to mainstream CCA mechanisms in Tanzania’s policy, development and investment frameworks. The expected proposed outputs are: introduction of long term mechanisms that can cope with CC uncertainties, strengthened leadership and institutional frameworks that can manage CC risks and opportunities, enhanced CC resilient polices and measures in priority sectors, national adaptation financing options established and dissemination of CC knowledge generated, stored and shared nationally, regionally and internationally. The project includes significant EWS components, including EWS equipment and infrastructure procurement. This project seeks to strengthen the capacities of the Tanzania

10 see WMO Global Framework for Climate Services 11 See GFDRR WCIDS: http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/WCIDS

14 Meteorological Agency and other research institutions in climate change data collection, analysis, and dissemination. 45. In Malawi the AAP project “Building Capacity for Integrated Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Malawi” (with financing of $3m) has a component related to EWS. One of its outcomes is to evaluate the effectiveness of disaster risk responses and implementation of early warning systems supported to decrease vulnerability to natural disasters12. This project does not include any specific budget lines for implementation of EWS technology. It primarily seeks to strengthen hazard mapping capacity, communication and awareness around DRR and emergency management programmes. 46. In Ethiopia the AAP project “Supporting integrated and comprehensive approaches to climate change adaptation in Africa - Supporting climate resilient sustainable development in Ethiopia” (with financing of $6.48m) will strengthen existing leadership for climate change adaptation at national and local levels, by strengthening the capacity of line Ministries to develop technical advice on adaptation, the capacity of local managers for managing local adaptation planning and improving the understanding of climate change and its strategic implications amongst leaders themselves. The programme will pilot approaches to managing climate change risk that integrate known methods of sustainable land management with adaptive practices that are informed by climate risk forecasting. Lessons emerging from these pilot interventions will feed into improving coordinated approaches for adaptation action. Using the evidence and experience generated through the pilots the programme will assist line Ministries to collaboratively prepare a climate change strategy that will support the implementation of PASPDEP II and a linked investment facility to attract and manage funds for integrated, or multi-sector adaptation action. 47. SADC Regional Meteorology Project (SAMPRO). Financing: $10.4m. SAMPRO is a regional development cooperation project based on an agreement between the Government of Finland and the Secretariat of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). An Inception Phase executed by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) in collaboration with the Meteorological Association of Southern Africa (MASA). The objective of the Inception Phase is build basis for multiyear regional project in Southern Africa and to strengthen the implementation of meteorology services in Southern Africa by building capacity and to make the function of early warning systems more effective. The purpose of cooperation in meteorology is based on the regional meteorology priorities set by the SADC ministers responsible for Transport and Meteorology. At present it is not clear how this investment will be distributed between countries and activities – for this PIF it is assumed that $8.4m will be invested in observational infrastructure (component 1) and $2m in regional coordination and technical assistance (component 3) Ethiopia 48. Government of Ethiopia and World Bank (GFDRR) – Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management Country Plan. Financing: $1.75m. This project seeks to reinforce risk and vulnerability assessments, early warning systems and contingency planning: The methodology for mapping vulnerabilities and risk at woreda level has been developed in earlier projects financed by GFDRR and shall now be rolled out in the entire country. Multi hazard forecasting systems combine the efforts to a comprehensive early warning system, including a further development of the LEAP Livelihood Early Warning and Protection system. The activities will be completed with a plan for contingency operation in case of drought and flood events in Ethiopia. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2.

12 http://www.undp-aap.org/countries/malawi

15 49. UNDP - Strengthening Capacities for Ethiopia’s Disaster Risk Management System. Financing: $12m. UNDP is currently supporting the Government of Ethiopia to reduce disaster risk and impact of disasters through the establishment of a comprehensive and integrated disaster risk management system. More than $12m has been secured to-date for a programme that will run from 2012-2016. The programme is to support the DRMFSS led the development of the Disaster Risk Management Strategic Programme and Investment Framework (DRM-SPIF) which elaborates the new Government of Ethiopia (GoE) approach on DRM and is the sole government framework for the harmonization of government, donor, and development partner support and interventions on DRM. The DRM-SPIF supports the Growth and Transformational Plan (GTP) by maximizing the achievement of socio-economic targets and the preservation of social and economic gains by not allowing these gains to be translated into losses as a result of disasters. It also firms up the position of the GoE on its new DRM approach to shift from disaster response and food aid to the building of community resilience and reduction of vulnerabilities. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2. 50. With the implementation of the current DRR and LR Programme, the Ministry of Agriculture, specifically the DRMFSS, requested UNDP to undertake a substantive revision of the current programme to capitalize on its significant achievements and direct it towards supporting the DRM-SPIF. The revised programme will work towards the reduction in the risks and impacts of disasters through the establishment of a comprehensive and integrated disaster risk management system within the context of sustainable development. As the main engine for UNDP to realize the intended GoE and UNDAF outcomes, the programme will work at achieving the intended UNDP contribution of making integrated DRM systems and coordination mechanisms functional at federal and regional levels. Malawi 51. UNDP - Enhancing National and Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Malawi. Financing $2,310,350. This initiative seeks to develop a Disaster Risk Management (DRM) policy, review the 1991 Disaster and Relief Act, document economic impact analysis of disasters and enhance DRR knowledge, develop and implement DRR/DRM road map, develop DRR Framework, DRM Handbook and Flood Risk Management Strategy, strengthen emergency preparedness and contingency planning process in selected vulnerable districts13. These funds are assumed co- financing for component 2. 52. UNDP National Programme for Climate Change in Malawi – CCP. Financing $4,152,399. The objectives of this project are to develop an evidence-based strategic framework, comprehensive funded programme for managing response to climate change in Malawi. To develop a strategic response to the challenges that climate change poses for sustainable economic development and national food security in Malawi. To address the problems that some of the communities are currently facing due to the impact of climate change by piloting few projects that the country has had on adaptation and mitigation. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2. 53. UNDP Programme Support to Disaster Risk Management 2012 – 2016 (under development). Financing $6m. This programme follow from the earlier support to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs and the recently completed The National Disaster Risk Management (NDRM) policy, which lists the main priorities of the government of Malawi (GoM) on disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Multi-sector preparedness and planning and response capacity will be developed at national, district and community levels to reduce disaster risks and shocks on vulnerable people. Specifically, mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into sustainable

13 Project Information Sheet under “Disaster Risk Reduction” at: http://www.undp.org.mw/index.php?option=com_c ontent&view=article&id=466&Itemid=197

16 development policies and planning processes at all levels of government; the establishment of an effective system to identify, assess and monitor disaster risks under data and information knowledge including early warning systems (EWSs); and strengthening coordination are the main focus areas. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2. 54. GFDRR. Disaster Risk Management in Malawi Country Plan. Financing $914,000. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2. This project serves as a framework for investments in DRM in Malawi over a period of three to five years. Goals are mostly centred on DRM, though it has a component on EWS which may involve an infrastructural component:  Developing and strengthening institutions responsible for DRM; instituting necessary DRM mechanisms;  Implementing mitigation measures in disaster prone areas;  Developing and strengthening coordination of institutions in disaster management and relief services;  Establishing an early warning system for Malawi;  Timely provision of emergency relief assistance to affected populations.14 55. GFDRR. Phase 1 of an activity to support national Red Cross and Red Crescent societies. Financing $200,000. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2. This project seeks to accomplish the following:  Advocacy with and advice to the National Governments of the countries concerned aimed at policy, strategy and action plans in disaster risk reduction to ensure that community level delivery is well reflected.  An advocacy plan leading to a disaster risk reduction capacity building component for taking the process of community level delivery forward.  A systematic review of safety nets and the identification of needs for the promotion of micro insurance.15 56. Agricultural Input subsidy programme: Financing: $126m per year (started in 2006 and projec ted to continue to 2015): Following severe food security difficulties in the early part of this centur y, and particularly after the poor 2004/5 production season, the government introduced a very lar ge scale input subsidy programme across the country. The core objective of the programme is to i ncrease food security and incomes for resource poor farmers, through improved access to subsidi zed agricultural inputs. Working through the Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Water Develo pment (MoAIWD), the programme distributes fertilizer and seed coupons via districts and Traditi onal Authorities (TAs). The programme also supports adoption of post harvesting management pr actices, advanced through the District Agricultural Extension Service System (DAESS). Investme nt in the programme has been rising steadily, from just over 60% of Ministry of Agriculture and F ood Security budget in 2006/7 and 2007/8 to 74% in 2008/9. In 2009/10, it accounted for 80% of the public budget to agriculture and 15% of the total national budget. During the 2011/2012 agric ulture season government has allocated $126m for the farm subsidy programme, targeting 1.4 mil lion people16. It has been assumed that 15% of the total project is relevant financing for component 2 (exact details will be determined during the PPG phase). 57. Government Flood risk management strategy – 2009-2019: Financing $3m. the government has developed a flood risk management strategy which focuses on risk mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Under this strategy, the districts prepare flood disaster contingency plans and establish rapid response teams. They also prepare and disseminate early flood warnings

14 http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/ca_projects/detail/3654 15 http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/ca_projects/detail/1677 16 Andrew Dorward, Ephraim Chirwa, T.S. Jayne – 2010: Review of the Malawi Agricultural Inputs Subsidy Progra mme, 2005/6 to 2008/9

17 messages, using seasonal weather forecasts from the Department of Meteorology. Implementation of this strategy in the River Shire has received a boost from a World Bank study17 which generates flood inundation maps for use in spatial planning to zone development away from high risk flood areas. These maps will assist in the refining flood mitigation measures including the placement of structures such as dams, culverts, bridges, levee heights, etc. These sets of data will form the basis of a flood forecasting model to be developed in the future and inform the emergency planning and response units. These funds are assumed 50% co-financing for components 1 and 2. 58. District Agricultural Extension Service Systems. Financing: $10m – Reformed in 2000 and projected to continue for the foreseeable future: The objective of Malawi’s Agriculture Extension Service is to promote adoption of agricultural technologies and farmer innovation in order to increase productivity and production so as to meet household or market requirements18. This is in recognition of the fact that smallholder farmers producers of both cash and food crops are important drivers of the agriculture sector in country. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2. 59. The National irrigation Expansion Strategy: 2010-2015. Financing: $2m: The government has established a National irrigation strategy to supplement rainfed cropping and optimize the cost of irrigation. The implementation of the irrigation strategy in the Shire Basin is being supported by “The Irrigation, Rural Livelihoods and Development project (IRLADP)” project, a World Ba nk/IFAD financed initiative which started in May 2006 and is expected to continue until 2016. Th e total budget for the project was US$52.5 million out of which US$40.0 million grant from IDA, US$8.0 million loan from IFAD and US$2.8 million GOM. The project is engaged in developing new irrigation mini-schemes and rehabilitating existing ones. It is also building capacity of local i nstitutions to effectively engage in irrigation through training and provision of micro loans. In thi s regard, the project has supported 4 large schemes totalling 1,797ha namely: Muona in Nsanje, L ikangala in Zomba, Nkhate in Chikhwawa, and Limphasa in Nkhata Bay. It has also supported s maller schemes in other districts namely Chitipa and Rumphi in the north, Lilongwe, Dedza and S alima in the centre, and Phalombe and Blantyre in the south. Currently over 1500 hectares of land are already under irrigation; this expected benefit about 197,000 farming households in 11 of Mal awi's 28 districts by the end of the project. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2. 60. Transforming agriculture through conservation agriculture in Malawi. Financing: $5m. On- going since 2006, expected to continue until 2014: The government has since 2005 engaged in a programme of conservation agriculture that has received technical and financial support from various development partners, notably CIMMYT, Total Land Care and IFAD. The programme has facilitated an innovative network of researchers, extension agencies and lead farmers to demonstrate the techniques and benefits of conservation agriculture. The network engages in participatory interaction and dialogue with farmers and encourages them to raise social capital, subsequently boosting interest in the conservation agriculture within their own communities and the surrounding areas. The project has also linked farmers to input suppliers and local banks, increasing access to soft loans for herbicides and improved seed. These funds are assumed co- financing for component 2. Tanzania

17 World Bank, Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction and others: 2009; Economic Vulnerability and Disaster Risk Assessment in Malawi and Mozambique: Measuring Economic Risks of Droughts and Floods 18 Department of Agricultural Extension Services (2008) Guidelines for Clusters and Ulimi wa M’ndandanda for various stakeholders –revised (unpublished).

18 61. The UNDP Country Programme includes a component, “Crisis Prevention and Recovery.” This project will work with the Prime Minister’s and Chief Minister’s offices’ disaster management departments to assist disaster-prone areas with emergency preparedness and response measures. This will include development of a framework for implementation of the disaster management policies in Mainland and Zanzibar. At the start of the project, disaster management guidelines in Zanzibar were not yet in place, and guidelines for Mainland needed updating following review. These efforts will be integrated with adaptation priorities. The budget for this particular component is $2.75m, according to the Country Programme document. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2. 62. The WFP Project is part of the WFP Country Programme 2011-2015. The Food for Assets component, which features a disaster risk reduction lens, will give food as an incentive to participate in activities such as “soil and water conservation measures, basic community socio- economic infrastructure, irrigation, homestead productivity intensification and income-generating activities, and tree nursery development.” These “asset-creation” activities are designed to “strengthen community resilience, reduce vulnerability and enhance local food access and availability” for those susceptible to economic, climatic, or seasonal shocks, and are tied to climate change adaptation priorities. This programme will reach an average of 250,000 individuals each year. The full budget for this component is $65.6 million 15% of which has been taken as relevant financing for component 2 (exact details will be determined during the PPG phase). 63. According to the Country Programme 2011-2015, UNICEF Project’s Emergency Preparedness and Response component will have a budget of $5.64 million (of a total $74.7m project). UNICEF will create linkages for assessment of emergencies, information-sharing, monitoring and overall response. In high-risk districts and village councils, it will create emergency preparedness and response plans. This programme will have the following results: Communities have access to improved credible emergency information to enable early action; Relevant MDAs, LGAs, and NSAs are prepared, have adequate sectoral capacity and provide an effective intra-coordinated response in WASH, health, education, protection, agriculture, food security and nutrition in emergencies; The disaster management departments of the Prime Minister’s Office and the Chief Minister’s Office effectively lead emergency preparedness and response, with a focus on areas most susceptible to disasters; Refugees have access to basic services and protection in line with international norms and standards. These funds are assumed co-financing for component 2. Uganda 64. The Netherlands, working with the Dutch Red Cross, are currently implementing the global project, “Partners for Resilience” in Uganda (EUR 40m globally; 2011-2015). This project seeks to increase the resilience of citizens against natural disasters by, among other things, making natural disaster risk management plans and warning systems. 19 The exact value of activities in Uganda and relevance to this proposed project needs to be determined during the PPG phase. It is not clear how much of this funding will be for Uganda 65. The International Telecommunications Union, in conjunction with the UCC, is implementing the project, “Natural Disaster Early Warning System – Uganda.” This project sets up an early warning system in Eastern Uganda. ITU and UCC will jointly finance, design and deploy a public alerting system for authority-to-citizen information dissemination.20. The exact value of activities and relevance to this proposed project needs to be determined during the PPG phase. 66. The World-Bank-funded project, “Agricultural Technology and Agribusiness Advisory Services,” ($120m loan; 2010-2016) seeks to improve agricultural technology and advising 19 http://www.climatecentre.org/site/partners-for-resilience 20 http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/projects/display.asp?ProjectNo=7UGA11006

19 services, as well as agricultural research, for the development of the agricultural sector in Uganda. There is potential synergy with agrometeorological EWS and 15% of these funds have been taken as relevant financing for component 2 (exact details will be determined during the PPG phase).21 67. UNDP supported Government of Uganda to implement the “Support to Preparation of a National Disaster Management Policy” from 2006 to 2009 ($4 m) and is developing a follow on project on Supporting Government with Disaster Risk Reduction and Management from 2012 to 2016 ($3.864 m). Specifically, the programme will focus on the following components: Component 1 mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies, programmes and plans (e.g., formulation of a national risk reduction strategy and review existing legal frameworks in risk reduction and draft DRR bill); Component 2 identify, assess and monitor disaster risks including strengthening an Early Warning System (EWS) at national and local level, and provision of advanced DRR information knowledge including damage and losses. These funds are assumed 50% co-financing for components 1 & 2. Zambia 68. The UNs joint programme on climate change and disaster risk reduction has the goal to reduce people’s vulnerability from the risk of climate change, natural and man-made disasters and environmental degradation by 2015. Of a total of $22.15m, $5.4m is to be used for developing an effective EWS, involving calculating climate variability trends, mapping vulnerability, developing a GIS system to hold the data and communicating messages, disaster simulations and preparing responses. There is no budget for climate or hydrological observational equipment and these funds are assumed co-financing for component 2.

The breakdowns of co-financing of these projects (USD) related to the different components of the PIF are as follows:

R E M T U Z Total

Component 1 8 0 1 0 3 0 13,832,000

Component 2 0 1 5 1 2 5 110,288,749

Component 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2,000,000

B.2. Incremental/Additional cost reasoning: DESCRIBE THE INCREMENTAL (GEF TRUST FUND) AND THE ASSOCIATED Global environmental benefits TO BE DELIVERED BY THE PROJECT: 69. The first component of the proposed project seeks to establish a functional network of climate (meteorological and hydrological) monitoring stations and associated infrastructure (satellite and severe weather monitoring) as a basis for understanding climate change and building an early warning system to increase resilience to climate-related shocks. The second component concerns itself with developing connected systems and processes to enable the data from such a network to

21 http://web.worldbank.org/external/projects/main?pagePK=64312881&piPK=64302848&theSitePK=40941&Proje ctid=P109224

20 be translated, combined, reinterpreted and communicated to intended users. It will also develop the human capacity to make such a system work.

Component 1: Transfer of technologies for climate and environmental monitoring infrastructure 70. This component will procure and install infrastructure required by each country to improve access to climate and environmental information for a functioning EWS. Details of this procurement will vary between countries depending on the required types of EWS (e.g. for floods, drought, severe weather, coastal processes etc.), existing infrastructure and telecommunications, capacity to utilise the equipment and associated data. Additionally, during the PPG phase potential climate change hotspots (where both vulnerabilities and hazards are expected to be high) will be considered when deciding where to place infrastructure e.g. meteorological stations in vulnerable regions etc.

Baseline Situation including Projects 71. The following describes the baseline situation and projects regarding existing infrastructure and related activities in each country. Ethiopia 72. Currently the Ethiopian National Meteorology Agency finances and maintains the following resources:  approximately 1200 conventional stations (which are manually operated and include rainfall- only measurements);  25 automatic weather stations;  1 upper air observation station;  Automatic Weather Observation Systems (AWOS) at different airports of the country;  Satellite receiving equipment from the MSG2 satellite which was launched by EU.22 73. The Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR) is currently contributing to the project, “Disaster Risk Management in Ethiopia Country Plan,” which serves as a framework for investments in DRM in Ethiopia over a period of three to five years. Beginning in 2010, it has a component to reinforce risk and vulnerability assessments, early warning systems and contingency planning23, though it is not clear as yet if it will install new climate observing infrastructure. Linked to this is a World Bank-funded project, “Weather Risk Management Framework Using Weather-Based Indices” which seeks to shift the countries strategy to ex-ante risk management, using the LEAP index as an early warning tool, that tracks livelihood protection needs near real-time24. The index uses climate information from meteorological stations to estimate whether crop water requirements are being met and hence the chance of crop failure. Tanzania 74. As of 2010, the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) had 800 rainfall-only (manually operated) observation stations (down from over 2,000 in 1977), and 1 Doppler weather radar. Many stations are in disrepair, and the collection of data depends on telephone and radio, making it unreliable. TMA also has a need to computerize its handwritten records, but most records

22 http://www.ethiomet.gov.et/about/facilities 23 http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/ca_projects/detail/2800 24 http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/ca_projects/detail/1648

21 remain unanalyzed. In 2009, therefore, TMA’s ability to provide early warning and to contribute to historic climate analysis was considered to be far below its potential. Additionally different parameters such as river discharges, forest coverage, agricultural yields have been collected but is not always reliable.25 As of 2010, TMA’s computers used the database management system CLIMCOM, but the agency desired to use WMO-recommended software such as CLIDATA instead. Furthermore TMA has expressed a need for the following:  Modernization and expansion of observation network, including remote sensing equipment;  Upgrading of climate database management system;  Improvement of telecommunication systems;  Strengthening of marine weather service;  Forecasting, post-processing and service production system;  Climate change modeling capacity;  Improving aviation weather services, including communication between TMA and ATC;  Assessment of solar and wind power potential;  Data Rescue facilities26. 75. There is clearly a need to implement a better EWS in Tanzania as several projects incorporate early warning in their design and seek to use available climate information for this purpose (see links to the WFP, UNICEF and UNDP baseline projects). The Danish meteorological institute is providing technical assistance to Tanzania and the details of this (including financing) will be provided on completion of the PPG phase. Malawi 76. The present network of meteorological stations comprises 22 full meteorological stations, 21 subsidiary agrometeorological stations, and over 400 rainfall-only stations27. The Department of climate change and meteorological services (Malawi Meteorological service) lists among its services tropical cyclone warnings, Mwera warnings and flood forecasts. However, the existing flood early warning system has several perceived weaknesses related to existing infrastructure:  No nighttime measurements taken at gauging and rainfall stations because these are manual measurements;  No models for flood forecast and prediction;  Many rivers still lack gauging stations. 77. The Malawi Meteorological service has a satellite receiver and regularly receives imagery from Meteosat 2nd generation satellites. It wishes to develop an EWS comprising of  National Flood Early Warning System (F-EWS)  National drought Early Warning System  Wildfire Early Warning System 78. Information regarding radar and hydrological stations in Malawi was not found at this time and will be elucidated during the PPG phase, particularly taking note of equipment being installed as part of the governments flood risk programme. Zambia 79. Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) maintains 37 full-time weather stations, which are supplemented by a network of voluntary stations (mainly rainfall stations) run by various organizations such as Department of Water Affairs, Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO), Government institutions, missions, schools, as well as individuals. Observations

25 Tanzania Africa Adaptation Project Document, p. 12 26 SADC meteorology project SAMPRO. Government of Finland, Ministry for Foreign Affairs. p. 24 27 http://www.metmalawi.com/about.php

22 include rainfall, temperature, wind direction and speed, evaporation, sunshine duration, as well as visual observations (e.g. identification of clouds) are taken at prescribed times in accordance with WMO regulation. This station network is complimented by other data sources which include upper air ascents, and satellite receiving systems. In 2008, expenditures for EWS under national policy in Zambia were $780k.28 80. However, Zambia’s network of stations may be considered inadequate given the size of the country. Most stations are located at aerodromes/airports, despite the fact that much of Zambia is predominantly an agriculture-based economy. As of 2010 ZMD does not carry out upper air ascents, has no weather radars or lightning detection system, and has non-existent communication facilities with other countries/institutions. 81. ZMD has teamed up with the Danish Meteorological Institute to implement the project, “Capacity Development for climate change at the Zambia Meteorological Department.” The project will improve the existing observation network and will upgrade systems to ensure good spatial coverage and a good selection of meteorological parameters. Data management and data analysis techniques will also be improved. Training is provided on numerical weather forecasts and details of this project (financing etc) will be provided on completion of the PPG phase29 Uganda 82. The Uganda Department of Meteorology includes four departments: (1) Station Networks; (2) Forecasting; (3) Applied Meteorology & Data Processing; and (4) Training & Research. According to its website, it “establishes and maintains a weather station network across the country. At each of the weather stations, weather observations are made daily and the weather records are kept at the Department Headquarters.” The weather equipment in Uganda is generally considered unreliable, and even newly-installed equipment has produced “questionable” data30. In 2008, the UDM’s radar broke down. It is unclear whether or not it was replaced.31

Additional cost reasoning 83. Under this component of the project, countries participating in this project will be able to use LDCF resources to procure, install and/or rehabilitate critical infrastructure required to build and/or strengthen the climate-related observational network in each country. In all equipment purchases an assessment of existing equipment will be made, noting the manufacturer, whether it is still working and whether the NHMS has an interest in continuing with particular makes/models. This will need to be weighed against the costs of potentially cheaper solutions and the added costs of training personnel to service different products. 84. Under Output 1.1 of the proposed project, LDCF resources will be used for the procurement and installation or rehabilitation (in case of existing) of 5+ hydrological monitoring stations in each country with telemetry, archiving and data processing facilities, which will enable the relevant NHMS to monitor river and lake levels. In turn this allows the NHMS to identify dangerous floods before they occur, issue warnings for dam/transport managers downstream and alert communities at risk. For example, in Malawi, it was estimated that monitoring equipment needs to be installed at approximately 100 locations in order for the Flood Early Warning System and monitoring of Lake Malawi levels to function effectively. All stations will be fitted with appropriate means for relaying data to central servers (e.g. via GPRS or satellite telemetry).

28 UNDP LDCF PIF, “Adaptation to the effects of drought” p. 7 29 http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/en/print/index/klima/danish_climate_centre/developing_countries.htm 30 Karamoja Livelihoods program report (2009), EU/FAO/Gov’t of Uganda 31 http://www.ugpulse.com/uganda-news/government/new-radar-needed-for-meteorology-department-minister/5455. aspx

23 85. Under Output 1.2, LDCF resources will be used for the Procurement and installation or rehabilitation of 20+ meteorological monitoring stations in each country, also with telemetry, archiving and data processing facilities. Comparison of the network coverage in each country with the risk and vulnerability maps, calculated or sourced during the PPG phase, will be used to identify underserved locations where data from additional stations will be most useful. As early warning and up to date monitoring is a priority, Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) using GPRS mobile telecommunications will be prioritised and where this is not available the feasibility of using more costly satellite communications will be assessed (including implications for budgets and future running costs). Coordination with the PPCR funded activities to improve mobile telecoms coverage will be beneficial in Zambia. In cases where stations have been neglected but the site (fences, towers etc.) are still functional, LDCF resources will be used to replace existing sensors and data loggers as historical observations from the site can be used with newly acquired data to create longer timeseries for detecting climate changes. Preliminary estimates of costs for purchasing needed additional weather stations (based on government estimates) are: Malawi (40 stations: $1m); Tanzania (43 stations: $1.6); Ethiopia (60 stations: $2.1m). 86. Under Output 1.3, LDCF resources will be used to procure equipment for monitoring severe weather. Radar equipment for doing this is costly (both purchasing and maintaining the equipment, as well as training and paying personnel to operate it) and budgets will only allow for the purchase of 1-2 such items. Depending on the type of radar and function the useful range is of the order 75-200 km. This limits the practical use of this equipment for specific locations with either a high vulnerability to extreme weather (e.g. large urban or coastal areas prone to flooding), or high values services/assets such as airports. Alternative options using different technology to achieve similar results will be investigated and assessed, depending on the application e.g. combining satellite and in-situ observations, and lightning detection as a proxy for extreme weather. Whilst so far only Malawi has made an estimate of needed radar equipment (2 radars: $2.1m) it is clear from other surveys that all countries in southern Africa require equivalent information for severe weather warnings32. 87. Upper air monitoring stations, through either radiosonde ascents or other remote sensing technologies, are useful for improving regional numerical weather predictions and global climate models run by international forecasting centres. There were no baseline activities identified with this activity, besides regular procedures implemented by the NHMSs. Through Output 1.4 LDCF funds will be used to procure the equipment needed to make upper air soundings. As these measurements are relevant to all countries, they should ideally be shared, especially with those running their own numerical weather prediction models. The exact number of installed upper air stations will be decided as part of the PPG phase given other equipment needs. None of the ongoing baseline projects suggest that new upper air stations are being implemented, but stations to monitor upper air have been requested by governments of Malawi, Tanzania and Ethiopia. 88. LDCF resources will be used for the procurement of satellite receiving equipment and establishment of data/image processing facilities (Output 1.5). This output will build on the AMESD and recently launched SERVIR33 programmes at the regional level, as well as each countries individual installations of satellite reception equipment. The potential uses of satellite data and imagery for planning and management purposes in the context of food security, and water management will be established for each country based on country specific contexts, users of information, needs (in the short-term disaster management, medium-long term planning) etc. This will involve coordination with other projects such as FEWSNET etc. If online data is not available in time to support required decisions then satellite receiving equipment will be purchased and systems established to provide the required information.

32 SADC meteorology project SAMPRO. Government of Finland, Ministry for Foreign Affairs. 49 pp. 33 http://www.servir.net/africa/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1

24 Under Output 1.6, LDCF resources will be used to develop the human technical capacity required to maintain and use the equipment made available through the LDCF. Personnel responsible for the running of the equipment and receiving/archiving the data that it produces (including manually operated stations where necessary) will be trained, along with back up personnel and replacements. This includes ensuring that there is an incentive mechanism in place to sustain the system that is set up with the LDCF resources. No baseline activities were identified with this output besides routine NHMS activities. Table 1: Summary of country needs that are relevant to Component 1 (to be developed in detail during the PPG phase): Ethiop Malaw Tanza Zambi Ugand ia i nia a a Automa Weathe Automa Automa Automa tic r radar; tic tic tic Weathe (purcha Weathe Weathe Weather r sing, r r Stations Stations installat Stations Stations (purcha (purcha ion ) (purcha (purcha sing, sing) sing, sing, installat installat installat ion) ion) ion). Rehabil itate existing stations Upper Weathe Automa Upper Weather Air r Radar; tic Air radar, Stations training Weathe Stations weather (purcha meteoro r (purcha predicti sing logists Observi sing on and on ng and models installat interpre Station installat ion) tation, (AWOS ion) training ), of purchas technici ing and ans on installat mainten ion ance Installat Automa Upper Forecas Data ion/mai tic Air ting and rescue ntenanc Weathe Stations Visualiz equipm e r includin ation ent and support Stations g Tools softwar of (purcha hydroge e, stations sing n GPRS and generat and installat or satellite ion) (purcha modems sing and installat ion) River Laborat Weathe Trainin

25 gauging ory r radar, g on equipm equipm weather forecast ent and ent for predicti ing, installat tempera on mainten ion ture models ance calibrati and on at visualiz TMA ation tools Upper Forecas Upgrad Air ting and e weather Visualiz satellite Stations ation receivin equipm Tools g ents equipm (purcha ent and sing electron and ic links installat ion) Mainten ance support of stations

Component 2: Climate information integrated into development plans and early warning systems 89. Much of the value of early warnings (whether a user changes their actions or lives/assets are safeguarded) is dependent on the packaging, communication and dissemination of those warnings. The effectiveness of warnings can be improved either through improving the forecasts/monitoring information, communications or the decision-making process. This component is primarily concerned with improving these aspects of the EWS. Country specific details on the exact type of EWS information and risk management tools (for flood warnings, agricultural extension advisories, weather index insurance, transport planning etc) will be determined at the PPG phase and additional actions designed to meet those priority needs.

Baseline Situation including Projects Ethiopia 90. The National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia issues warnings of heavy rain when rainfall amounts exceed 30mm and of droughts if rainfall is below normal. Forecasts and warnings are disseminated to Prime Minister; D/Prime Minister; Ministry of Rural Development; Ministry of Agriculture; Ministry of Water Resources; DPPC and EPPC; Regional States; Dam Administrators; Mass Media; Universities, colleges; Research Centres; etc. The NMAE has a TV broadcasting system, by which it disseminates the forecasts in four languages: 1 international language, 1 national language, and 2 local languages. 91. The UNDP is a co-partner with The Government of Ethiopia on the programme, “Strengthening National Capacities for Disaster Risk Reduction and Livelihoods Recovery.” As of January 2011, this programme had developed an Enhanced EWS reporting format and rolled it out to all regions

26 and cities. The programme has also produced early warning information products and various DRR-related awareness-raising.34 92. An existing “people-centered” Early Warning System monitors and analyzes monthly and weekly information using remote sensing and GIS. It feeds into the Operations Center/Emergency Operations Center and activates the contingency planning process. It also features a rapid assessment system, which is activated in times of emergency. 35 These EWS capacities were enhanced and expanded through the ongoing UNDP DRR programme. 93. WFP, in its Country Programme (2012-2015), indicates that it will be undertaking Disaster Risk Management activities, including working with the National Meteorological Agency to improve collection of weather data. 94. The GFDRR programme36 in Ethiopia also includes aspects related to this component, namely:  Strengthening of national disaster risk management strategies and institutions  Improve emergency preparedness and response through capacity strengthening Tanzania 95. The EWS in Tanzania is coordinated by the Disaster Management Department in the Prime Minister’s Office. 96. Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) runs the following limited-area models (LAM): the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; horizontal resolution 5-15km; forecasting length: 48- 54h); the WRF-BOGUS for TC track during the TC season (horizontal resolution 10km; forecasting length: 48-72h) for experimental purposes; and the High Resolution Regional Model (HRM; horizontal resolution 14km; forecasting length: 78h), which are also used for severe weather forecasting. 97. TMA is mainly focused on the two rainy seasons, of October-December and March-May, when most natural disasters occur in Tanzania. TMA provides climate outlooks (seasonal and monthly rainfall forecasts) and weather forecast (up to 10 days) including tropical cyclone advisories and warnings. The rainfall seasonal forecast is used by the Ministry of Water, to develop their scenarios of river flow and flooding and also by the agriculture sector to estimate yields and anticipate risks related to excess or deficits of rainfall. The Ministry of Health uses the seasonal forecasts for monitoring water borne and epidemic diseases. 98. Responsibility for the EWS is as follows: TMA: Weather and climate information (monitoring, forecasts and issuing warnings); Ministry of Water, Power Utility Company: River flow and dams (monitoring, forecasts and issuing concerned warnings); Disaster Management Department under Prime Minister’s Office (Coordination of emergency response and DRR efforts); Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and marketing: Monitoring food security; and Ministry of Health: Monitoring epidemic disease 99. The agrometeorological service provides information via emails to disaster management agencies, Ministry of Agriculture, WAMIS, the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET) offices in Tanzania. Decadal and monthly weather forecasts are also produced and TMA participates in agricultural shows and fairs to create awareness 100. CC-DARE, in conjunction with UNDP, UNEP, and Environmental Protection and Management Services, implements the project “Identification, documentation and dissemination of indigenous forecasting to adapt to climate change within selected communities.”37 This project seeks to identify indigenous forecasting through various data and information collection 34 http://www.et.undp.org/index.php?option=com_project&id=49 35 Document: “Strengthening Capacities for Ethiopia’s Disaster Risk Management System,” p. 15-16 36 http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/ca_projects/detail/2800

27 methodologies, then to create increased awareness and use of indigenous forecasting for early warning by various communities within the study area and across the country. In study communities, indigenous forecasting was to be combined with modern early warning systems and incorporated into TMA’s work to recognize impacts of climate change and associated vulnerabilities. 101. There is clearly a need to link EWS to preparedness activities related to climate shocks in Tanzania as several projects are working to use available EWS information for managing disasters and slow onset hazards (see links to the WFP, UNICEF and UNDP baseline projects) Malawi 102. In Malawi the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA) is mandated to provide early warnings, drawing on the hydrology and meteorology services to provide climate and hydrological information. There is an existing Flood Early Warning System, though perceived weaknesses of this system include:  Lack of training for what to do when an EW-message is received;  Communication of EW-messages could be standardized; currently they are sent via cell-phone service, which is not always reliable;  Southern flooding can result from heavy rainfall in Mozambique, indicating a need for cross- border cooperation. 103. UNDP Malawi is also implementing a programme on Disaster Risk Reduction, entitled, “Enhancing National and Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Malawi.” The project activities are to develop a Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Policy; review the 1991 Disaster and Relief Act; document economic impact analysis of disasters and enhance DRR knowledge; develop and implement DRR/DRM road map; develop DRR Framework, DRM Handbook and Flood Risk Management Strategy; strengthen emergency preparedness and contingency planning process in selected vulnerable districts38 104. UNDP is also starting a programme to extend this work and include multi-sectoral preparedness and planning, community-level response measures and establishing an effective system to identify, assess and monitor disaster risks (including elements of an EWS). 105. GFDRR is currently contributing to the project, “Disaster Risk Management in Malawi Country Plan,” which serves as a framework for investments in DRM in Malawi over a period of three to five years. This programme began in 2010. Its goals are mostly centred on DRM, though it has a component on EWS which may involve an infrastructural component:  Developing and strengthening institutions responsible for DRM; instituting necessary DRM mechanisms;  Implementing mitigation measures in disaster prone areas;  Developing and strengthening coordination of institutions in disaster management and relief services;  Establishing an early warning system for Malawi;  Timely provision of emergency relief assistance to affected populations.39 106. Another GFDRR project, “Phase 1 of an activity to support national Red Cross and Red Crescent societies” seeks to accomplish the following:

37 http://www.adaptationlearning.net/project/identification-documentation-and-dissemination-indigenous-forecastin g-adapt-climate-change-w 38 Project Information Sheet under “Disaster Risk Reduction” at: http://www.undp.org.mw/index.php?option=com_c ontent&view=article&id=466&Itemid=197 39 http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/ca_projects/detail/3654

28  Advocacy with and advice to the National Governments of the countries concerned aimed at policy, strategy and action plans in disaster risk reduction to ensure that community level delivery is well reflected.  An advocacy plan leading to a disaster risk reduction capacity building component for taking the process of community level delivery forward.  A systematic review of safety nets and the identification of needs for the promotion of micro insurance.40 107. The USAID-funded FEWS NET also maintains an existing National Food Security Early Warning System. This system is perceived as having multiple strengths in terms of its monitoring capabilities and equipment, but it has weak feedback to the local (affected) population, which is very limited and not on a regular, standardized basis41. 108. The Department of Forestry maintains a Wildfire Early Warning System for state-owned forest plantations. While people working/living in the forest plantations are warned in time, there is no standardized procedure to inform people living in the vicinity of the plantations or outside of state-owned plantations. The Malawi Meteorological department also issues agrometeorological bulletins every 10 days during the rainfall season, though this is mostly climate data which is useful to agriculture e.g. 10 day rainfall totals. 109. Existing district-level EWS are only in 3 districts, supported with interventions by NGOs. The UNDP Malawi consultancy found these to be largely effective, although their recent implementation means they have yet to be fully tested. Zambia 110. With funding and facilitation assistance from the UNDP CO in Zambia, the Government recently created its Climate Change Facilitation Unit, an interim body to strengthen national coordination of climate change response efforts.42 The PPCR also reports that Zambia requires improvements in the ability to monitor inundation, flash flooding/heavy rainfall and drought/dry periods, combining appropriate ICT technology to structure and geo-reference information, as well as ensuring that information is in simple language and can be understood by users43. The Disaster Mitigation and Management Unit (DMMU) currently has the mandate to collect information from the departments of Meteorology and Water affairs and issue warnings based on this information. DMMU is also supported by the joint-UN programme on reducing vulnerability to climate change to conduct an evidence-based response to climate change and develop effective national, sectoral and local early warning systems. Uganda 111. An EWS was introduced in Nakapiripirit by ACTED in 2008 and has since 2009 been expanded. “The system has produced monthly bulletins for Nakapiripirit collating information on rainfall with reports from sentinel agents (CAHWs). These have been prepared in a standard format providing information on food availability, food access, weather conditions, natural resources condition, water and pasture availability, hazard, coping mechanism, health status, purchasing power and security. Bulletins are widely circulated among concerned agencies and the

40 http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/ca_projects/detail/1677 41 UNDP Malawi “CONSULTANCY TO ASSESS THE CURRENT HAZARD MAPPING CAPACITY AND EFF ECTIVENESS OF SCENARIO BASED TOOLS FOR LONG TERM PLANNING MECHANISMS.” Final Report. Jan. 2012. 42 http://www.undp.org.zm/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=141:support-to-the-climate-change-fa cilitation-unit&catid=4:environment-and-natural-resources&Itemid=6 43 http://www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/cif/content/cif-notes-enhancing-hydrometerological-monitoring-ppcr- pilot-countries

29 results fed into the FAO Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classification (IPC).”44 112. UNDP is implementing support for DRR activities which support mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies, programmes and plans and identifying, assessing and monitoring disaster risks including strengthening an Early Warning System (EWS) at national and local level, and provision of advanced DRR information knowledge including damage and losses.

Additional cost reasoning 113. The capacity to make and use daily to seasonal climate forecasts will be developed through Output 2.1. This will link to ongoing activities at all the NHMS and will ensure that all target countries have the capacity to run numerical weather prediction models, or be able to usefully generate and use data from these models run elsewhere with the region or at international centres. The data from these models should be linked to tailored products developed in output 2.2 and the decision processes in output 2.3. Numerical weather prediction is already undertaken by Tanzania and Zambia, and the gaps between existing forecasts systems and those required for climate resilient planning purposes will be evaluated during the PPG phase, including use of indigenous knowledge when useful (see CC DARE projectError: Reference source not found). Data sharing between NHMSs will be encouraged as this helps develop forecast products and the observations from other countries, collected through output 1.2, help understand the errors in the forecast models. 114. Output 2.2 will develop new tailored products to serve the information requirements of users in different sectors and locations. These products will be developed through consultations with the intended users of the information and appropriate research organizations. Information and data from the monitoring infrastructure (weather and hydrological stations, radar, and satellite monitoring) will be combined to produce new user-relevant information. As an example, satellite and weather station observations can be combined to derive a spatially continuous dataset and estimate rainfall for locations which have no meteorological stations. Using these data the water balance of crops can be estimated (similar to the LEAP project in Ethiopia) for wider regions and these can be used as part of agricultural advisories. Improved availability of data to generate these products will also be implemented e.g. where important climate records reside in paper format, they will be digitised and used to better describe local microclimates, hence improving the baseline hazard mapping. It is currently not clear which projects are currently undertaking this work and this will be determined during the PPG phase. 115. Assimilating the forecasts from output 2.1 and tailored products from output 2.2 into existing EWS activities and processes will be the aim of Output 2.3. This will involve assessing the information needs of different decision-making processes e.g. for flood warnings, drought warnings, food security, water management etc and designing a set of information products that will inform the process. Some countries which have functioning EWS for particular sectors (e.g. Wildfire and floods in Malawi) and can extend knowledge and skills to other countries who need similar EWS, thus building on existing experience. Climate monitoring information from component 1 and forecasts from output 2.1 will be combined to identify regions where risks are currently high and likely to get worse. Where necessary satellite imagery will be used to assess the current extent of climate-related hazards and this information will be combined with agricultural (crop), flood risk or other sectoral models to help the decision making process. Training on the use of these technologies will be provided where needed. Several baseline

44 Karamoja Livelihoods program report (2009), EU/FAO/Gov’t of Uganda

30 projects are currently undertaking these activities, including UNDP, WFP and PPCR in Zambia, FEWSNET, UNDP and GFDRR in Malawi, WFP in Tanzania and GFDRR and WFP in Ethiopia. Coordination for this output will therefore be important. 116. Output 2.4 will establish communication strategies and processes targeted to each identified sector and user. The aim is to effectively communicate early warnings, and advisory packages developed through Output 2.3, in the most useful way for different users/audiences. These strategies will vary between countries as communications technologies, language and cultural norms vary. Using software and technology in innovative ways will be explored e.g. Google earth for presenting forecasts and identified risks. Lessons and experiences in other parts of Africa will be assessed for their potential to upscale e.g. using innovative techniques to communicate agrometeorological advisories45. In Ethiopia the work will build on the UNDP DRR programme and in Malawi on the work undertaken by GFDRR, UNDP and government, with the potential to extend lessons learnt to other countries. 117. Output 2.5 will, in each country, assess the sustainability of the EWS, taking cognizance of the current funding mechanisms and allocated budgets. It will assess where funding shortfalls are most acute and where budgets are likely to be reduced in the future. A comprehensive needs assessment for climate services will be carried out (how needs are currently met, opportunities for private partnerships and gaps in the current services), as well as the willingness and ability to pay for such services across a range of stakeholders, both private and public. Where suitable legal arrangements exist and where governments are willing, private companies will be approached to test their willingness to engage in a public-private partnership with the NHMS or associated entity. Similar activities within the country or region will be approached to learn from their experiences (e.g. the Weather Information for Development (WIND) initiative in Kenya). No baseline projects were identified with this output at this stage.

Table 2: Country needs that are relevant to Component 2 which will be developed further during the PPG phase: Ethio Mala Tanza Zambi Ugand pia wi nia a a Hazard Hazard Integrat Apply Trainin mappin Mappin ed appropr g on g g multi- iate hazard capacit capacit hazard ICT mappin y y system technol g. built - ogy for Trainin currentl commu g on y nicatio natural differen n with hazards t commu modelli compo nities ng nents of the EWS do not commu nicate well Modelli Data Data Access Applica ng and Manag compil to tion of

45 http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/what-we-do/current-work/developing-climate-change-resilience/grants-gran tees/african-agriculture-climate-change

31 monitor ement ed and satellite early ing systems analyse imager warnin capacit and d in an y and g y built capacit integrat integrat messag y ed ion into es manner develop ment of EWS messag es Comm Modelli Simple Formul Commu unicati ng and and ate nication on of monitor user- coheren of early ing friendly t policy scientifi warnin capacit messag for c early g y es are dissemi warnin informa (includi develop nating g tion ng ed climate informa and vulnera informa tion to appropr bility tion end- iate and users packagi GIS ng of mappin messag g) es Agricul Flood Agricul Flood Flood tural early tural warnin early advisor warnin advisor gs, warnin ies, g, ies, agricult g, weather agricult flood ural agricult index ural warnin advisor ural insuran advisor gs ies, advisori ce ies, drought es Lake monitor Malawi ing severe weather

Component 3: Technical assistance for implementation and coordination 118. This component will provide overall technical assistance to the project to help implement the most cost effective solutions given budgetary, human and technical restrictions. It will provide scientific support to ensure that climate and environmental information is utilized in line with accepted norms as well as coordination with other in-country and regional development partners undertaking similar work. The benefits of a regional effort on EWS will be promoted by sharing best practices, support tools, experience and information between countries, as well as negotiating discounts on equipment.

Baseline Situation including Projects 119. Most countries lack the technical capacity to design and implement cost-effective systems which incorporate climate monitoring, forecasting and other environmental information (e.g. from satellites) into processes to inform preparedness and response activities. The skills often exist to implement parts of the processes (e.g. WFP in Zambia has been designing a GIS- based early warning system for food security), but linking these into a wider framework requires

32 dedicated resources. Furthermore, the utility of climate monitoring and forecast information is limited by the use of standard meteorological formats e.g. seasonal mean rainfall, which is difficult to relate to agricultural impacts or floods. Developing and testing new products based on available data, skills and resources can improve the use and interpretation of EWS messages. 120. Presently there is ad-hoc coordination between countries on EWS-related activities and within countries the implementation of EWS is usually tied to the availability of project funds, which may be earmarked for particular activities, equipment or service providers. This can result in breaks in the flow of information, inability to utilize technologies or the absence of important information. Several development organisations are, however, working to overcome these limitations, both at the regional level (Clim-dev, SADC-HYCOS, GCOS and AMESD – see coordination projects) and across many countries simultaneously (the Finnish SAMPRO project, GFDRR, PPCR and UNDP projects). It is important that any new initiative such as this one coordinates with these activities as no one initiative can provide all the requirements of a fully functional EWS. 121. There are examples of best practices being shared e.g. the regional climate outlook forums (SARCOF and GHARCOF) where climate scientists come together from each country to make a consensus forecast using similar tools and methods. However, regional coordination is often limited e.g. neighbouring countries often use a different weather prediction model, though they are predicting for the same areas. Combining the forecasts from these different sources can provide better forecasts. Similarly, weather radar may overlap an adjoining country and could provide useful information for other countries. However, this sharing of information and the processes to enable it are often lacking

Additional cost reasoning 122. Output 3.1 will provide technical guidance and training on the selection of appropriate hardware/equipment, assessing it’s technical capabilities and cost effectiveness. This will be based on the intended purpose and accuracy of required data, the lifespan of the equipment, cost of maintenance (including specialised skills) and integration with existing systems. It will ensure that equipment can be maintained beyond the lifetime of the project. Further technical guidance will be provided on the appropriate uses of available data, how to use it to generate meaningful information which can either be used to generate a warning or combined with other sources of data (climate and environmental e.g. from satellites) to generate warnings. Appropriate technologies for this purpose will be suggested, with the emphasis on workable, low cost solutions when available. Baseline projects such as the SAMPRO project will be approached for their experiences, as well as the experiences of the NHMS in operating different infrastructure. 123. Coordination with other ongoing activities led by PPCR, AAP, GFDRR, AMESD etc. will undertaken through Output 3.2 and will involve meetings, joint missions, teleconferences etc. Where different sources of equipment and software are used they will be assessed for compatibility and ways in which they may be combined suggested to the respective governments. Where possible complimentary equipment and software will be purchased with a view to combining these into a coherent system. As the different organisations will sometimes be concentrating on different aspects of the EWS (e.g. this project focuses on monitoring/forecasting and communications, whereas GFDRR or UNDP-BCPR may focus on responses and preparedness) it is important that this project first consults the information needed for preparedness and response activities, and works back to design appropriate information systems and forecasting/monitoring tools. Related activities through regional centres and activities such as

33 FEWSNET (Famine and Early Warning System Network)46 and ICPAC (IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre)47 will also be considered. 124. Through Output 3.3 best practices and information will be shared between countries, especially where either the same sectoral EWS are planned and therefore use similar equipment and/or technologies, or nearby countries produce or monitor data and information that is relevant for other countries. The level of cooperation between countries will be dependent on political/institutional circumstances but the placement of new equipment may be optimised based on information from nearby countries e.g. upper air stations for regional climate modelling or weather radar. Best practises and successful applications of tailored climate information, sectoral impact models and decision support tools will also be shared to promote successful strategies and minimise mistakes. Projects associated with this output include FEWSNET and GCOS, but no baseline project financing was identified at this stage.

46 http://www.fews.net/Pages/default.aspx 47 http://www.icpac.net/

34 B.3. DESCRIBE THE SOCIOECONOMIC BENEFITS TO BE DELIVERED BY THE PROJECT AT THE NATIONAL AND LOCAL LEVELS, INCLUDING CONSIDERATION OF GENDER DIMENSIONS, AND HOW THESE WILL SUPPORT THE ACHIEVEMENT OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT BENEFITS. AS A BACKGROUND INFORMATION, READ Mainstreaming Gender at the GEF.:

125. The project is expected to deliver benefits at both the national and local levels. The installation of weather, upper air, radar and other observation and computer infrastructure will benefit the NHMS staff (through training and technological advancement). Other national institutions that will benefit from this endeavour will be Ministries of Agriculture, Water, Energy and Disaster Management, through strengthening of their computer databases, access to information and ability to communicate with other regions. One important benefit will be the improved coordination between government departments and the sharing of information, which can lead to improved products and services. It is then possible that these institutions can start marketing such information and products (satellite monitoring and climate forecast products in particular) to private entities who will pay for the services. 126. At the local level early warnings and climate hazard mapping, disseminated correctly and acted on appropriately, can provide economic benefits through reducing losses of agricultural produce, infrastructure (roads and bridges) and disruption to peoples livelihoods. This has further knock-on effects on people’s health and wellbeing and thus affects communities and social structures. Communities will immediately benefit through warnings related to agriculture, coastal management, water and flood management, wildfires etc. This total population benefiting from these developments has the potential to grow hugely if warnings extend to a reasonable percentage of the total population e.g. through a mobile phone relay or similar system. Many of the beneficiaries will be women, especially within the agriculture sector where they often make up the majority of smallholder farmers, yet are most vulnerable to food insecurity. There may also be other benefits to developing the communication systems associated with early warnings - for instance radios can also be used for arranging medical evacuations. 127. Perhaps the largest economic benefits are associated with improved transport planning, especially shipping which will take advantage of improved forecasts of winds and waves, and aviation which can take advantage of improved local forecasts. These and commercial agriculture likely represent some of the largest private clients for early warning services and tailored forecasts. Together with satellite imagery used for land-use planning and monitoring these can provide environmental benefits, including monitoring of illegal logging which has global consequences in terms of deforestation and the global carbon budget.

35 B.4. INDICATE RISKS, INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS THAT MIGHT PREVENT THE PROJECT OBJECTIVES FROM BEING ACHIEVED, AND IF POSSIBLE, PROPOSE MEASURES THAT ADDRESS THESE RISKS

Risk Level Mitigation Unavailability of requisite human resources High The issue of the unavailability of requisite human resources will and data be mitigated by recruitment of international consultants who will work closely with in-country counterparts and by targeted capacity building activities. Training activities of local personnel will also be part of all aspects of the work and the relevant institutions will be encouraged to expand the staff base if it is weak in particular areas. Local IT and telecommunications Medium Cost-effective solutions for each particular situation will be used infrastructure weak e.g. international e.g. satellite and/or radio communications. Where feasible bandwidth and local mobile automatic weather and hydrological stations reporting over the telecommunications networks mobile telecoms network will be preferred. Insufficient institutional support and political Medium The proposed project is strongly supported by Governments and commitments other key stakeholders and development partners. The project, in conjunction with UNDP, will therefore take advantage of this opportunity to seek substantial support from the Governments and forge strong partnership with other development partners. Direct linkages to existing and planned baseline development activities implemented by government, securing of the necessary co-financing, as well as local buy-in will also minimize this risk. It will also be important to establish buy in from all government departments early as the project will utilize data and information from a wide range of departments. Work progresses in a compartmentalized Medium This risk is always present in a project such as this. By ensuring fashion and there is little integration e.g. that capacity is built across a range of departments and government departments refuse to share data implementing ‘quick win’ measures early (developing products and information based on internationally available data), these issues can be mitigated. Non-compliance by primary proponents for the Medium Ensuring that the project is designed and implemented in a successful implementation of this project participatory and inclusive manner, following established UNDP procedures, will mitigate the risk. Since the activities correspond to the urgent needs as expressed by the primary proponents the risk of non-compliance should be reduced Climate shock occurring during the design and Low to There may be some delays as more urgent priorities may need to implementation phase of the project medium be addressed by some of the stakeholders (e.g. NHMS or disaster management) but it is unlikely that this will derail the project.

B.5. IDENTIFY KEY STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVED IN THE PROJECT INCLUDING THE PRIVATE SECTOR, CIVIL SOCIETY ORGA NIZATIONS, LOCAL AND INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ROLES, AS APPLICABLE:

Stakeholder Relevant roles Regional Africa Adaptation Programme (UNDP) Investing in both hard technology and the use of climate information for risk management SADC Regional Meteorology Project Not clear as yet – project is just starting but will likely invest in hard technologies (SAMPRO) e.g. weather stations and radars Climate for Development in Africa Promoting the use of climate information for development – potential partner for Programme (ClimDev-Africa) TA

36 African Monitoring of the Environment Installing and promoting the use of satellite equipment and technology for for Sustainable Development (AMESD) environmental monitoring Global Climate Observing System Coordinating body for the climate observing system worldwide (GCOS) Southern African Development Coordinating the installation and use of hydrological monitoring equipment and Community Hydrological Cycle information for water resource management Observing System (SADC-HYCOS) Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience Particularly working in Zambia, the programme may invest in new infrastructure (PPCR) and/or technical assistance Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Working mostly with disaster management, the programme also has a facility for Recovery (GFDRR) advising on infrastructure development IGAD Climate Prediction and For East African countries (Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia) climate forecasts and the Applications Centre (ICPAC) seasonal outlooks Famine and early warning system network Working across Africa to implement climate monitoring and forecasting for early (FEWSNET) warning in the food security sector UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Working with disaster management, disaster and loss databases and climate risk Recovery (UNDP-BCPR) assessments Malawi Department of Disaster Management Coordination of Disaster Risk Management, operationalization of the DRM Affairs Policy, including EWS, contingency planning, etc. Falls under the Office of President and Cabinet (OPC) Department of Climate Change and Provide weather and climate related data, including forecasting. Falls under Meteorological Services Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment and Energy Department of Water development Providing hydrological data and flood forecasting Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Mandated on food production and security Water Development Ministry of Finance and Development Planning and budgeting following the Malawi Growth and Development Startegy Planning (MGDS), including monitoring its progress. Social Protection and Disaster Risk Management is one of the main themes in the MGDS Survey Department GIS operations and houses the National Spatial data Centre Ministry of Local Government and Rural Mandated to govern the District and local structures, including of DRM, as well Development as Integrated Rural Development CISONECC Overarching Civil Society Network on Climate Change. Also linked to DRR activities. Consisting of some 20 NGOs (National and International) Development Partners Main Development Patrners active in DRR / EWS: Irish Aid, DfID, Norwegian Embassy, EU, UNDP, UN-Habitat, UNICEF, WFP, World Bank Zambia Meteorology department Run meteorological observation network and produce forecasts Department of water affairs Run hydrological observation network and associated supply infrastructure Disaster mitigation and management unit Coordinate disaster management activities under the office of the prime minister Ministry of agriculture and livestock Manage agricultural activities and food security assessments Climate change secretariat Successor to climate change facilitation unit (government coordination for climate change) Zambia climate change network NGO working with communities Centre for Engineering, Energy and NGO working on adaptation Environment University of Zambia Climate modelling and analysis Tanzania PMO-DMD Disaster preparedness and response Ministry of water Water supply and monitoring Ministry of energy and minerals Hydropower and geological prospecting Ministry of agriculture Food security and cooperatives Ministry of livestock and fisheries Animal diseases Ministry of transport Airports, road, ports World Food Programme Food security and development FAO Agriculture and food security WHO Health Uganda Department of Disaster Preparedness and Coordinate DRR issues at National level under the Office of the Prime Minister, Management, Office of the Prime Minister Chairs the National DRR Platform, Co-Chairs the Early Warning Sub-committee

37 of the National Platform Meteorology Department, Ministry of Runs meteorological observation network and produce forecast and issues Water and Environment warnings Climate Change Unit, Ministry of Water Coordinate climate change issues at national level and Environment National Environmental Management Lead institution for control and management of land/mudslides Authority (NEMA), Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry Lead institution for Food Security and Fisheries Ministry of Health Lead institution for control of human epidemics FEWSNET Issue Famine Early Warning information UNISDR Regional Office for Africa Technical support and capacity building to OPM and National Platform for DRR ACTED/DCA Consortium Implement Drought Early Warning System Makerere University, Department of Training and Research of climate science and Early Warning Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climate Sciences Ethiopia National Meteorological Agency Collect and archive observational data. Make climate and weather forecasts Ministry of Water Operate dams, water scheduling etc. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Food security, agricultural advisories, promote climate resilient development Development Environmental Protection Authority Land use monitoring, environmental impacts assessments Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery Disaster management and coordination Central Statistical Agency Collect census and economic loss data

B.6. OUTLINE THE COORDINATION WITH OTHER RELATED INITIATIVES:

Regional 128. Climate for Development in Africa Programme (ClimDev-Africa) is a joint initiative of the Commission of the African Union (AUC), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). ClimDev-Africa has received strong political endorsement from AU heads of state and government, African Ministers, several key stakeholders and the International Community. In general, the ClimDev-Africa programme supports Africa's response to climate variability and change by building regional, sub-regional and national policy capacity. It will improve the quality and availability of information and analysis to decision-makers. 129. The African Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development (AMESD) Project. The European Union funded project Preparation for the Use of MSG in Africa (PUMA) made available data and products from EUMETSAT’s latest satellites, promoting African National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to provide accurate weather forecasts, monitor extreme weather phenomena, and improve disaster management. The African Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development (AMESD) initiative takes PUMA a stage further by significantly extending the use of remote sensing data to environmental and climate monitoring applications. 130. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is intended to be a long-term, user- driven operational system capable of providing the comprehensive observations required for: Monitoring the climate system; Detecting and attributing climate change; Assessing impacts of, and supporting adaptation to, climate variability and change; Application to national economic development; Research to improve understanding, modelling and prediction of the climate system. GCOS is a joint undertaking of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United Nations Environment Programme

38 (UNEP) and the International Council for Science (ICSU). It includes both in situ and remote sensing components, with its space based components coordinated by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS). GCOS is intended to meet the full range of national and international requirements for climate and climate-related observations. 131. The Southern African Development Community Hydrological Cycle Observing System (SADC-HYCOS) is a regional component of the World Meterological Organisation (WMO) programme aimed at improving the basic observation activities, strengthening regional cooperation and promoting free exchange of data in the field of hydrology. The programme is guided by the World Hydrological Observing System (WHYCOS) International Advisory Group (WIAG). The aim is to ensure that participating countries, individually and collectively, attain the technical capability, effective management and equitable use of the freshwater resources of the sub-region and to establish a Water Resources Information System as an effective decision making tool Ethiopia 132. The World Bank-UNDP-GEF project, “Coping with Drought and Climate Change in Ethiopia (CwDCC)” ($2.8m, SCCF) is working to improve the use and communication of early warning information for agricultural producers. It is also using simple data collection mechanisms at the local level to inform an EW database system. As of February 2012, early warning information is being collected from kebeles and reported monthly to the agriculture office, where it is analyzed and communicated to farmers at pilot sites. 48. The project is providing the following relevant resources:  Fully equipped information management support unit and center  DRM database and software applications  Updated and decentralized (at regional level) EWS database and analytical capability  EW analyses information products  EWS alert technology and tools  Establishment of EW Analysis Unit Tanzania 133. A component of UNEP’s LDCF-funded project, “Developing Core Capacity to Address Adaptation to Climate Change” seeks to “provide decentralized administrations and communities with the capacity to perform coastal vulnerability assessments, as well as information and analytical tools to undertake participatory adaptation planning. This will also include local climate monitoring capacity, so as to enhance local forecasting and monitoring of climate change and sea level rise.” Zambia 134. The UNDP project, “Adaptation to the effects of drought and climate change in agro- ecological zones 1 and 2 in Zambia” (LDCF, $10.45m; implemented 2009-2013), seeks to address the Government’s insufficient use of EWS for the agricultural sector. It identifies two key weaknesses in the Government’s existing agricultural EWS programme:  “outreach to farmers (including packaging the information in an accessible format)  the links between the Ministry of Agriculture and the District authorities.” 135. Within the Ministry of Agriculture, and at pilot sites, the project designs interventions to ensure that climate risk information is communicated effectively. A priority EWS intervention is

48 Document “Achievements of Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project,” at http://undp.adaptationlearning . net/projects/ethiopia-coping-drought-and-climate-change

39 for EWS to prevent the spread of livestock disease. The 2012 annual work plan for this project in dicates that automatic weather stations will be installed at all 8 pilot sites throughout the year at a cost of $10,000.49 136. The PPCR programme in Zambia50 includes a climate information component to the project "Strengthening climate resilience in Zambia and the Barotse sub-basin." This totals $9.5m, including upgrading climate infrastructure ($4m) and developing EWS ($2.3m) (p. 74). The project "Private sector support to climate resilience" includes a climate information and dissemination network component, which includes activities to determine the feasibility of establishing a mobile phone platform in the private sector in Zambia ($0.3m) and to develop appropriate public-private sector partnerships to implement a mobile phone platform that provides market, technical and weather information to farmers ($4.5m).

C. DESCRIBE THE GEF AGENCY’S COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE TO IMPLEMENT THIS PROJECT: 137. The proposed project is aligned with UNDP’s comparative advantage, as articulated in the GEF matrix, in the area of capacity building, providing technical and policy support as well as expertise in project design and implementation. Additionally UNDP country offices in Ethiopia, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and Uganda have close links with their respective governments, as well as a high level of experience managing other LDCF projects in the region, and in particular those with an early warning component. The figure below shows the value and sectoral focus of projects currently managed by UNDP which have an EWS component. UNDP is therefore already working with EWS in many countries and many sectors, strengthening its capability to coordinate and providing the flexibility to handle changing needs between countries. The country offices are supported by Regional Technical Advisors at UNDP offices in Pretoria, as well as by policy, adaptation, economics and climate modeling experts in New York, Cape Town and Bangkok.

49 Work Plan on CO Site: http://www.undp.org.zm/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15:adaptatio n-to-the-effects-of-drought-and-climate-change&catid=4:environment-and-natural-resources&Itemid=6 50 http://www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/cifnet/investment-plan/zambias-ppcr-strategic-program

40 C.1. INDICATE THE CO-FINANCING AMOUNT THE GEF AGENCY IS BRINGING TO THE PROJECT: 138. The total funding that UNDP is bringing to this project is $40,476,749. The details of these projects have been outlined above.

C.2. HOW DOES THE PROJECT FIT INTO THE GEF AGENCY’S PROGRAMME (REFLECTED IN DOCUMENTS SUCH AS UNDAF, CAS, ETC.) AND STAFF CAPACITY IN THE COUNTRY TO FOLLOW UP PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION:

139. Activities and results that will be developed under this project are also fully consistent with the UNDAF outcome 2.1 “Improved sustainable Natural Resource Utilization and food security”, 2.2 “Improved access to sustainable livelihoods opportunities in an innovative and competitive private sector”, and UNDAF outcome 2.3 "Improved access to sustainable basic infrastructure”. 140. UNDP’s comparative advantage in implementing this project is underpinned by our energy and environment programme strategy which aims to mainstream environment and disaster prevention measures into national and local development policies, strategies and plans and our overarching role of capacity development. 141. Public service reform and institutional building is one of UNDP’s flagship programming areas. The proposed capacity development activities in all components of the LDCF project will benefit from UNDP’s overarching and strategic role in this area, helping to ensure that related outcomes are sustainable in the long-term. 142. There are other LDCF, SCCF and Adaptation Fund -financed projects within the region with similar objectives (see figure above) currently supported by UNDP, which means that there is substantial in-house technical expertise within UNDP that can be brought to bear to support the Government with the project as outlined above. UNDP country office operations are supported by regional advisory capacity based in the UNDP Regional Centre in Pretoria. UNDP has dedicated Regional Technical Advisers focusing on supporting adaptation programming and implementation in a range of technical areas relevant to this project including capacity development, coastal zone management, disaster management, infrastructure development, and ecosystem based adaptation. Our network of global Senior Technical Advisors provide additional technical oversight and leadership helping to ensure that programmes on the ground achieve maximum policy impact. 143. UNDAF and CPD priorities for all countries will be outlined after conclusion of the PPG phase.

41 PART III: APPROVAL/ENDORSEMENT BY GEF OPERATIONAL FOCAL POINT(S) AND GEF AGEN CY(IES)

A. RECORD OF ENDORSEMENT OF GEF OPERATIONAL FOCAL POINT (S) ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT(S): NAME POSITION MINISTRY DATE (MM/DD/YYYY) Dr Tewolde Berhan Director general Environmental Protection authority, 04/23/2012 G/Egziabher Ethiopia Dr Julius Ningu Permanent Vice presidents office, Tanzania 04/20/2012 secretary Keith Muhakanizi Deputy secretary Ministry of finance, planning and 04/24/2012 to the treasury economic development, Uganda Dr K. Nkowani Director Ministry of Lands, natural resources and 04/19/2012 Environmental protection , Zambia Dr Aloysius 04/24/2012 Kamperewera Deputy director Environmental Affairs Department, Malawi

B. GEF AGENCY(IES) CERTIFICATION This request has been prepared in accordance with GEF policies and procedures and meets the GEF criteria for project identification and preparation. Agency Signature Date Project Contact Telephone Email Coordinator, Person Address Agency name Yannick Glemarec May 3, 2012 Mark Tadross +27 21 6502884 Mark.tadross@ Executive Technical Advisor undp.org Coordinator Gr-LECRDS UNDP/GEF

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