4Thjoint Science Committee of the World Weather Research Programme

4thJoint Science Committee of the World Weather Research Programme CAS / WWRP / JSC4 / DOC3.4 / AGENDA ITEM 3.4

3.4 Tropical Meteorology Research (TMR)

The Working Group (WGTMR) is organized in a Tropical Cyclone Panel and a Monsoon Panel. Both of these Panels are unique within WWRP/THORPEX as to extent to which they have established and maintained direct contacts with the operational forecasters in the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and thus fulfill the CAS Strategic Thrust II to advance scientific research and application as well as development and implementation of technology, and specifically: II.3 -- Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs to produce better predictions and warnings; II.4 --Enhanced capabilities to use weather observations; and II.5 -- Enhanced capabilities to draw benefits from the global research capacity. The cornerstone activities of the Tropical Cyclone Panel and the Monsoon Panel are quadrennial International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC) and International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM) that bring together operational forecasters and researchers to discuss progress over the past four years and establish plans for the next four years.

3.4.1 Tropical Cyclone Panel

3.4.1.1 Workshops and Conferences

Close collaboration has been established with the World Weather Watch Tropical Cyclone Programme (WWW/TCP) in hosting workshops and conferences to ensure that forecasters have input as to the direction of research and technology development activities. The IWTC-VII that was held in La Reunion Island during 15-20 November 2010 had one of the best attendances by forecasters due to the generous support of WWW/TCP and Meteo France that supplemented the WWRP funding. Even though the workshop was reduced from eight working days to six days, thus unique opportunity for interaction between the forecasters and researchers was successful. The pre-workshop reports were posted (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/IWTC- VII.html). These Topic and Rapporteur reports provide an excellent summary of progress in research and forecasting over the past four years. The final report on IWTC-VII will be on the WWRP website in February 2011. This final report included 59 recommendations, including 12 high priority recommendations for future WMO activities, forecaster needs, and research opportunities. Some accomplishments from IWTC-VI were: (i) A book “Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation” has been published; (ii) A web version of “A Global Tropical Cyclone Forecast Guide II” is nearing completion; (iii) An assessment of recent advances in understanding tropical cyclones and climate change has been published in Nature Geosciences and a new summary statement for use by WMO and the NMHSs has been provided by a distinguished WGTMR Expert Panel; and (iv) A WMO website has been established for seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity that are more consistent in space and time. After developing the website and testing it over two Northern Hemisphere seasons, the second phase is to add other operational or research groups who prepare seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts.

Another workshop co-sponsored with the WWW/TCP was the second International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes, which was held in Shanghai during October 2009. A survey of the forecaster needs for tropical cyclone guidance provided some important distinctions between developed and developing nations, which can be used to guide the direction of the WWRP efforts. An aggressive WWRP project called Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) was proposed to develop improved forecast products for tropical cyclone track and intensity by the beginning of the Shanghai World Expo in May 2010. This project, in cooperation with the THORPEX Northwest Pacific Typhoon Ensemble Prediction, did develop new products and they held a forecaster training workshop. This is one of the first projects to use ensemble forecasts (as opposed to a consensus of deterministic model tracks that is the standard procedure) for tropical cyclones, and the goal over the next two seasons is to develop wind structure and precipitation products.

The WWRP Working Groups on Tropical Meteorology Research and Forecast Verification Research co–sponsored the Third WMO International Conference on Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and Hydrology. The keynote sessions were on heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones and monsoons, which was appropriate since the conference was held in Nanjing, China. In addition to the presentations on the rainfall directly associated with the inner core, Predesessor Rain Events (PRE) or remote rainfall events far from the center were also presented. Since the heavy rain may trigger Rossby wave propagation downstream in a wave guide, tropical cyclone-related rainfall may have an impact on the midlatitude circulation far from the center.

3.4.1.2 Tropical cyclone field experiments

Many research results from the combined Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS-08) and THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) are now appearing. The relative contribution of the mesoscale convective systems versus the synoptic-scale environmental conditions is still a matter of discussion in some of the cases. Some of the early results that are of interest to the tropical cyclone warning centers. A consensus of four deterministic numerical models was shown to provide formation locations and timing and early (up to 72 h) tracks for those tropical disturbances that would later form into typhoons or strong tropical storms, but not for those disturbances that form due to baroclinic processes or for midget tropical storms. The explanation is that favorable conditions for formation and intensification to a typhoon must exist over a large region, and such larger-scale circulations are more predictable by the models. By contrast, the baroclinic and small tropical cyclones that rely on an outbreak of mesoscale convection is not predictable at five days by the models since these formations depend on smaller scale processes.

The WGTMR cooperated with the Year Of Tropical Convection (YOTC) to gain access to the full (T799) resolution ECMWF analyses and forecasts during TCS-08/T-PARC. These analyses at 25 km resolution have provided good background fields for higher resolution analyses that incorporate the special observations from the field experiment. A fortunate byproduct of the arrangement with ECMWF was that they also provided access to an experimental 32-day ensemble prediction of western North Pacific tropical cyclone – like vortices from the 51 members. During the field experiment, these weekly forecasts provided an indication of active and inactive periods of formations. Converting similar member vortices into ensemble storms, it has been demonstrated that this ECMWF ensemble could predict the formation and early tracks of the three intense typhoons and the strong tropical cyclones out to weeks 2, 3, and 4! This remarkable performance has been confirmed in a detailed study of the 2009 season as well, when more typical monsoon trough conditions existed and many more typhoons developed. An intraseasonal (10-30 days) forecast that a typhoon will develop and move into an area could be of great value to many water resource agencies or other public sectors.

The WGTMR again collaborated with the THORPEX Pacific Asia Regional Committee to provide meteorological support to the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP). This oceanographic field experiment studied the ocean response to typhoons with moorings, drifters, and buoys and the air-sea fluxes in high winds that are important for tropical cyclone intensification and maintenance. Two major deployments of ocean instrumentation were achieved in Typhoon Fanapi and Supertyphoon Megi, which will provide unprecedented observations of the ocean response. The weekly ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions provided real-time support for ITOP and successful forecasts were made of both extended periods of inactivity and then when tropical cyclone events (formation and track) would occur. Additional observations from the two “hurricane Hunter” aircraft of tropical cyclone formation and intensification were collected in this 2010 field experiment that will supplement the TCS-08/T-PARC set.

3.4.1.3 Gaps in tropical cyclone forecasting

The forecaster survey at the IWTCLP-II workshop confirmed that a global requirement is for improved guidance products for tropical cyclone intensity change, and especially rapid intensification. The first requirement in an intensity forecast is when will a tropical depression form and intensify to a tropical storm, since achieving that stage of development greatly enhances the likelihood that a typhoon or hurricane will result.

The forecaster community is now asking for guidance on rainfall rates, location, and duration as one of the major tropical cyclone impacts. Since the location and duration depend greatly on the track, and accuracy requirements for flood forecasting in an urban area or a river basin are very stringent, the track forecast is not a solved problem.

While advances in intraseasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone events have been demonstrated, clear deficiencies in mesoscale model predictions of tropical cyclone formation and intensification have been revealed during the field experiments. These models consistently over- forecast the development and intensification, which suggests a fundamental problem in model physics.

3.4.1.4 Activities to address gaps

The SouthWest Indian Ocean Weather Experiment (SWICE) was proposed by scientists in France and other countries. The WWRP supported a delegation to come to La Reunion, France to assist in the planning for SWICE. The result of that workshop was a science plan that focused on: (i) In situ observations below the proposed Megha-Tropique satellite that will provide microwave soundings in the near-equatorial region with a 5-6 h repeat cycle, which would be an important advance for tropical meteorology; (ii) Air-sea interaction observations in conjunction with other proposed field experiments in the equatorial Indian Ocean; and (iii) Targeted observations by aircraft extending earlier results from the Atlantic and western Pacific.

Aircraft have been demonstrated to provide critical in situ observations around the tropical cyclone to improve track forecasts. Targeted observations in these specific areas that the global numerical models indicate would have the greatest effect have almost the same beneficial effect as the entire flight. Thus, it is in principal possible for a short duration (4-5 h) jet aircraft to make these targeted observations in the Southwest Indian Ocean from a limited number of airports. Given the irregularly changing tracks in the Southwest Indian Ocean, such targeted observations have the potential to significantly improve the track forecasts.

Whereas the SWICE science plan received high marks, funding for the experiment in January-February 2011 was not available. One of the criticisms was that only minimal international participation was involved. Thus, a meeting was held at IWTC-VII to develop a second version of the SWICE plan in collaboration with Meteo France scientists. The CAS recommended cooperation with the Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project in South Africa to extend the impacts of the improved forecasts to the countries along the East Africa coast.

The WWRP/TCP/PWS Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project in conjunction with the THORPEX Northwest Pacific Typhoon Ensemble Prediction will be continued through December 2012. This project is expected to demonstrate the utility of ensemble forecasts for track and intensity, but also for wind structure and precipitation.

Analyses of the ITOP/TCS-10 field experiment observations will continue. In addition to the new understanding of the ocean response to typhoons (and thus potential negative feedback on tropical cyclone intensity), the analyses of the formation cases and the spectacular rapid intensification of supertyphoon Megi are expected to yield new understanding of formation and intensity. Given the operational forecaster requirements for tropical cyclone-related precipitation, and the keynote session and discussions at IWTC-VII, efforts to initiate a Research Development Project (RDP) or a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) will be explored. This RDP or FDP would address not just the direct effect of inner-core rainfall, but also the PRE or remote rainfall that affects midlatitude WMO Members.

The success of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble forecasts in the western North Pacific may lead to tests in other tropical cyclone basins. The ability of other major numerical weather prediction centers to produce forecasts of tropical cyclone formation and tracks on 10-30 day time scales is being explored, since a consensus approach involving multiple model forecasts has generally been successful in tropical cyclone forecast. The IWTC-VII recommended that an intraseasonal forecast website similar to the seasonal activity website be established by WMO at an appropriate time.

Although not a WWRP project, new findings from the three Atlantic field experiments will be summarized for the Region IV Hurricane Committee at the appropriate time to provide forecasters in that Region operational guidance for formation and intense change.

3.4.2 Monsoon Panel

3.4.2.1 Publications A meeting report of the Fourth WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-IV) held in Beijing October 20-25, 2008 was submitted to Bulletin of American Meteorological Society in 2009. The report, entitled “BRIDGING WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN RESEARCH AND FORECASTS OF THE GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM”, was accepted for publication in May 2010 and will be published by BAMS in February 2010. The preprint is attached (Appendix A)。 nd Editing of the book, “The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, 2 Edition”, was completed in November 2010. This book of 34 invited chapters in 560 pages by leading scientists around the world was based on the discussions of monsoon research and forecasting topics at IWM-IV and the subsequent peer review and revision process. It represents a complete rewriting of the first edition published in March 2005 (WMO Technical Document 1266). The book will be published in March 2011 as Vol. 5 of the World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate (WSS-APWC). The Table of Contents (Appendix B) and the Foreword by WMO Secretary General (Appendix C) are attached.

3.4.2.2 Monsoon Data Centers In September 2009 the WWRP JSC approved three proposals to establish monsoon data centers to facilitate the archiving and exchange of field observational data and special data for monitoring extreme events. They are Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets (Colorado State University, USA); Monsoon Radar Meteorology Data Information Center (Nagoya University, Japan); and Center for Extreme Events Monitoring in Asia (EAMAC/Beijing Climate Center, CMA, China). The USA and the China Centers have been established, and the reports from them are attached (Appendixes D and E, respectively). The establishment of the Japan Center was interrupted due to an unexpected technical staff resignation, but Professor Hiroshi Uyeda has just indicated that recruitment and hiring of a new staff is well underway and he expects the effort to establish the center will be revived soon.

3.4.2.3 Meetings and Plans of Monsoon Rainfall RDP and IWM-V The Monsoon Panel held a meeting during the Third WMO QPE/QPF and Hydrology Meeting in Nanjing, October 2010, to discuss a proposed initiative as a WWRP RDP to study the heavy rainfall system in southern China during the East Asian summer monsoon by China Meteorological Administration. The southern China summer heavy rainfall is a major component of the Meiyu-Beiu-Changma rainfall system that affects a large part of Southeast and East Asia including Indochina Peninsula, southern and eastern China, Korea and Japan, and the adjacent oceanic regions. The rainfall system often causes severe floods with major life and property losses. It was decided that the 2011 heavy monsoon rainfall workshop and associated training, originally scheduled for Busan, Korea, will be moved to Beijing in the summer or fall 2011 and hosted by CMA in order for international experts to discuss a CMA draft proposal. It is expected that this workshop will help finalize the CMA proposal before submission to the WWRP JSC. Monsoon rainfall experts from several regions, including Japan, Korea and U.S., have expressed strong interest in participation. The next IWM, IWM-V, is scheduled to take place in late 2012. This series of quadrennial workshops has been the keystone activity of the Monsoon Panel and has developed into the most important forum where monsoon researchers and NMHS forecasters discuss topics of common interest and directions of future research that can improve forecasting. The Malaysian Meteorology Department has expressed an interest to host the workshop, subject to the approval by the Government of Malaysia. Appendix A BRIDGING WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN RESEARCH AND FORECASTS OF THE GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, February 2011 (pdf file attached) Appendix B

nd THE GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM: RESEARCH AND FORECAST, 2 Edition World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, Vol. 5CONTENTS

Foreword...... v

Preface...... vii

I. GLOBAL MONSOON

1. Concept of Global Monsoon...... 3 Bin WANG, Qinghua DING, and Jian LIU

2. Heaviest Precipitation Events, 1998-2007: A Near-Global Survey...... 15 Brian MAPES

II. REGIONAL MONSOONS

3. Interannual Variation of the South Asian Monsoon: Links with ENSO and EQUINOO...... 25 Sulochana GADGIL, Madhavan N. RAJEEVAN, Lareef ZUBAIR, and Priyanka YADAV

4. Summer Monsoons in East Asia, Indochina and the Western North Pacific...... 43 Tianjun ZHOU, Huang-Hsiung HSU, and Jun MATSUMOTO

5. Seasonal Prediction of Australian Summer Monsoon Rainfall ...... 73 Harry H. HENDON, Eunpa LIM, and Matthew C. WHEELER

6. The Maritime Continent Monsoon...... 85 Andrew ROBERTSON, Vincent MORON, Jian-Hua QIAN, Chih-Pei CHANG, Fredolin TANGANG, Edvin ALDRIAN, Tieh Yong KOH, and Liew JUNENG

7. The East Asian Winter Monsoon...... 9999 Chih-Pei CHANG, Mong-Ming LU, and Bin WANG

8. The West African Monsoon...... 111 Serge JANICOT, Jean-Philippe LAFORE, and Chris THORNCROFT

9. The South American Monsoon System...... 137 Brant LIEBMANN and Carlos R. MECHOSO

10. Contributions from the North American Monsoon Experiment towards Improved Understanding and Prediction of High Impact Weather and Climate Events ...... 159 David J. GOCHIS and Ernesto H. BERBERRY III. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE WEATHER

11. Synoptic and Meso-Scale Weather Disturbances over South Asia during the Southwest Summer Monsoon Season...... 183 Dev R. SIKKA

12. The Meiyu Weather System in East Asia: Build-Up, Maintenance and Structures...... 205 Yihui DING, Yunyun LIU, Li ZHANG, Junjie LIU, Liang ZHAO, and Yafang SONG

13. Mesoscale Aspects of the Australian Monsoon...... 223 Peter MAY

14. Synoptic and Mesoscale Processes in the South American Monsoon...... 239 Alice M. GRIMM and Maria Assunção F. SILVA DIAS

15. Diurnal Cycle of Monsoon Convection ...... 257 Richard JOHNSON

16. Some Aspects of Precipitation Relating to Topography ...... 277 Seung-Hee KIM and Robert G. FOVELL

17. Field Experiments on Meiyu/Baiu Frontal Precipitation Systems and Heavy Rainfalls over Yangtze River, East China Sea and Kyushu, Japan ...... 289 Hiroshi UYEDA

18. An Overview of SoWMEX/TiMREX...... 303 Ben Jong-Dao JOU, Wen-Chau LEE, and Richard H. JOHNSON

19. The Characteristics of Summer Monsoon Rainfall at the Southwestern Ocean Area of Korea: A Study of the 2007 Season ...... 319 Dong-In LEE, Sang-Min JANG, Cheol-Hwan YOU, Min JANG, Kil-Jong SEO, Dong-Soon KIM, Mi-Young KANG, Hiroshi UYEDA, Masayuki MAKI, and Ben Jong-Dao JOU

20. Heavy Rainfall over the Baiu Frontal Zone around Japan - Relation with Cloud-Top Heights of Cumulonimbi ...... 339 Teruyuki KATO

21. Tropical Cyclone Characteristics and Monsoon Circulations...... 357 Patrick A. HARR and Chun-Chieh WU

22. Airborne Radar Observations of Heavy Precipitation Systems...... 373 Wen-Chau LEE and Ching- Hwang LIU

IV. INTRASEASONAL PREDICTION

23. Intraseasonal Variability and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research ...... 389 B. N. GOSWAMI, Matthew C. WHEELER, Jon C. GOTTSCHALCK, and Duane E. WALISER

24. Intraseasonal Prediction and Predictability for Boreal Winter ...... 409 In-Sik KANG and Hye-Mi KIM

V. NUMERICAL MODELING

25. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour ...... 421 Andrew TURNER, Kenneth R. SPERBER, Julia SLINGO, Gerald MEEHL, Carlos R. MECHOSO, Masahide KIMOTO, and Alessandra GIANNINI

26. Cloud-Cluster-Resolving Global Atmosphere Modeling – A Challenge for the New Age of Tropical Meteorology...... 455 Taroh MATSUNO, Masaki SATOH, Hirofumi TOMITA, Tomoe NASUNO, Hinichi IGA, Akira T. NODA, Kazuyoshi OOUCHI, Tomonori SATO, Wataru YANASE, Hiroaki MIURA, and Hironori FUDEYASU

27. Improving Multimodel Forecasts of Monsoon Rainfall over China Using the FSU Superensemble...... 475 Tiruvalam N. KRISHNAMURTI and Akhilesh K. MISHIRA

28. Simulation of Synoptic and Sub-synoptic Scale Phenomena Associated with the East Asian Monsoon Using a High-Resolution GCM ...... 493 Ngar-Cheung LAU

VI. OCEAN AND AIR-SEA INTERACTION

29. Why Climate Modelers Should Worry About Atmospheric and Oceanic Weather ...... 511 Ben KIRTMAN and Gabriel A. VECCHI

30. Oceanic Processes Influencing the SST in Regions Related to the Asian-Australian Monsoon System ...... 525 Bo QIU and Yukio MASUMOTO

VII. LAND AND AEROSOL PROCESSES, CLIMATE CHANGE

31. Review of Recent Observational and Dynamical Studies on the Climate Impacts of the Tibetan Plateau...... 537 Guoxiong WU, Toshio KOIKE, Yimin LIU, and Kenji TANIGUCHI

32. Impacts of Climate Change on Asian Monsoon Characteristics ...... 557 Akio KITOH

33. Effects of Dust and Black Carbon on Variability of the South Asian Monsoon ...... 569 William K. M. LAU and Kyu-Myong KIM

34. Role of Vegetation in the Monsoon Climate System ...... 583 Tetsuzo YASUNARI

Appendix C FOREWORD

Although monsoons are most prominent over Asia, where they tend to determine weather and climate over vast areas, monsoon winds and rainfall variations are also observed in other regions, to the point that they influence the lives of nearly three-quarters of the world population. Accordingly, monsoon research has traditionally held a very high priority for the weather and climate international scientific communities, including the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of WMO's 189 Members, since this systematic study contributes to enhance their operational capabilities in high-impact weather forecasting, in particular for floods and droughts, thereby supporting the provision of early warnings for the protection of lives and property, a capability which has considerably expanded in recent times thanks to the increasingly accurate forecasts and longer lead times which can today be achieved. At the kind invitation of People's Republic of China, the Fourth WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-IV) was held successfully in Beijing from 20 to 25 October 2008. The workshop, which covered all major monsoon regions and scales, was organized by WMO through its World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) with the strong support of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), which WMO co-sponsors with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO and the International Council for Science (ICSU). On behalf of WMO, I would like to express our appreciation to the International Organizing Committee, chaired by Professor Chih-Pei CHANG, which developed the workshop programme and brought together many distinguished monsoon researchers and operational experts, thereby providing a key forum for discussions. WMO's gratitude is also extended to the Local Organizing Committee, the session chairpersons and to all authors, reviewers and editors, for their key efforts. The present publication, which is also an update of the 2005 WMO edition of “The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast”, has been the result of the active discussions during IWM-IV and the subsequent peer reviewing process. It provides a comprehensive review of the current status of knowledge in global monsoon meteorology, including the modeling capabilities and future research directions. I am confident that it will significantly contribute to future advances in monsoon research applications, through the exchange of innovative ideas and novel results among all monsoon scientists, forecasters and prediction end-users. Lastly, I also wish to thank China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), as well as the continuing collaboration of the World Scientific Publication Company.

(M. Jarraud) Secretary-General World Meteorological Organization Attachment D

Status Report

Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets December 2010

Director and PI: Richard H. Johnson Project Scientist: Paul E. Ciesielski

In 2009, the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University established a Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets as a WWRP Project. The website for this project is at http://johnson.atmos.colostate.edu/wwrp_monsoon/. At present, the following field campaigns are included on this website: ATEX, BOMEX, GATE, WMONEX, ASTEX, TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, SALLJEX, NAME, NAMMA, and TiMREX. The primary products on this website are raw and plotted sounding data, as well as analyses derived from the soundings themselves. The upper-air sounding datasets for TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, NAME and TiMREX have undergone numerous checks and corrections to enhance their quality. Corrected data for TiMREX will soon be added to the website (Ciesielski et al 2010). Currently, some of the sounding data for several of the monsoon-related experiments in the list are missing or incomplete. We intend to fill in missing data as we obtain it in connection with an ongoing joint project between CSU and NCAR EOL (Co-PI: Steve Williams) to recover sounding data from past field programs, which is being funded in the United States by NSF and NOAA. We are also working with NOAA’s NCDC to locate, inventory, and rescue some of the historical data sets. Although we do not have exact numbers, there are numerous inquiries and requests for the sounding data listed on this website. Most requests are probably for TOGA COARE data, although many investigators are also interested in accessing SCSMEX, NAME, and TiMREX sounding data. During the coming months, we intend to add data for another monsoon experiment – the 2006 AMMA over West Africa. Efforts are still underway by the European community to correct the humidity data from AMMA, but once we receive the corrected data, we will place it on our website. ______Ciesielski, P. E., W.-M. Chang, S.-C. Huang, R. H. Johnson, B. Jong-Dao Jou, W.-C. Lee, P.-H. Lin, C.- H. Liu, and J. Wang, 2010: Quality controlled upper-air sounding dataset for TiMREX/SoWMEX: Development and corrections. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., (in press) Attachment E Status Report

Center for Extreme Events Monitoring in Asia (CEEMA)

Beijing Climate Center/East Asian Monsoon Activity Center December 2010

In 2010 the Center for Extreme (Weather and Climate) Events Monitoring in Asia (CEEMA) was established by the East Asian Monsoon Activity Center/Beijing Climate Center as a WWRP- endorsed Project hosted by the China Meteorological Administration. The following progresses have been made:

1. A website for CEEMA has been established

The links are at: BCC http://bcc.cma.gov.cn/en/

CEEMA: http://bcc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=28&show_product=1

NEWS on establishment of CEEMA: http://bcc.cma.gov.cn/Website/?ChannelID=2&NewsID=877

2. An initial Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Weather and Climate Events (OITREE) has been developed

A new technique for identifying regional weather and climate extreme events – the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events (OITREE) – is a crucial tool for the Center. The initial versions of its two key technologies, partitioning daily affected area and identifying the continuity of the daily affected area for an event, have just been developed. Based on historical daily station data, OITREE can be applied in different types of extreme events within a certain region, identifying not only the area affected by the extreme events, but also the intensity and lasting period of it. In addition, four single indices - extreme intensity, accumulated intensity, impacted area and lasting period, and an integrated intensity, have also been developed to measure each extreme event. 3. Applications of the technique (OITREE) in China is underway

In 2010 OITREE was applied in a study on China’s drought events. Fig. 1 shows frequency variations of drought events during 1957-2009 and that there exists an obvious increase trend for drought events. Fig. 2 shows the affected area with intensity distribution for the 2009/2010 Southwest China drought. According to the integrated intensity, the 2009/2010 Southwest China drought is the severest drought event in record for Southwest China and the second severest drought event in record for China.

c 5 n e u

q 4 e r f 3

0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year

Fig. 1 frequency variations of drought events during 1957-2009 in China

Fig. 2 the affected area with intensity distribution of the 2009/2010 Southwest China drought event

This application of the initial OITREE is now extended to the studies of heavy-rainfall, heat-wave, and cold-wave events. We will continue to refine the techniques as the results of these applicationsin China are evaluated, and eventually a relatively mature OITREE will be used for research and operational applications to monitor and assess the extreme events in Asia.