Source : CDC US Health Department

The New Zealand 2006 Employees Pandemic Preparedness Course Aegility eLearning

PANDEMIC ASSESSMENT TOOL

Download this Free Pandemic Situation Assessment Tool.

This a Review of facts, events and thinking around what appears to be a pandemic threat. No everyone thinks the situation is serious. Use this list to help you make up your mind.

1. The risk of a pandemic is great.

 During 2005/6 ominous changes have been observed in the epidemiology of the disease in animals.

 Human cases are continuing to occur,

 the virus has expanded its geographical range to include new countries,

 this has increase the size of the population at risk.

 Each new human case gives the virus an opportunity to evolve towards a fully transmissible pandemic strain.

2. The risk persists. Why?

 This highly contagious influsz virus is hard to contain.

 Evidence shows that the H5N1 virus is now endemic in parts of Asia, established in poultry.

 Continuing opportunities for a pandemic virus to emerge.

 Despite aggressive control measures, wild migratory birds are now dying in large numbers from highly pathogenic H5N1.

 Migatory birds infect domestic chickens and ducks.

 Ducks who do not show any signs of illness, excrete excrete large quantities of highly pathogenic virus every day.

 Their silent role in the transmission chain raises the avoidance of risky behaviours to be more difficult.

3. Evolution of the threat cannot be predicted.

 Given the constantly changing nature of influenza viruses, the timing and severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted.  This virus is constantly looking for a way to gain the capability to bind to human cells . That could be now, let us all hope it could be later

 But it is necessary to be prepared as we do know it will come.

 Hopefully human cases will break out initially as small clusters with evidence of limited transmission.

 This will enable the world some time to take defensive action. Again, whether such a “grace period” will be granted is unknown.

4. The early warning system is weak.

 Rural poverty continues to drive high-risk behaviours which easily lead to the repetitous cycle of infected birds migrating throughout the world.

 Most affected countries cannot adequately compensate farmers for culled poultry so there is little reporting on bird to human cases.

 Plus continuing traditional home-slaughter and consumption of diseased birds will also perpetuate the exposure cycle to humans, thus maintaining the high probability of virus mutation.

 Inadequate medical supplies will also play a major role in the mortality rate. A vaccine could be created quite quickly once the new virus is identified and isolated. But it would take 12 months to manufacture what was needed.

Conclusion

o There will be no magic cure o We will all need to have well prepared employees who know what is expected of them and how to do it if we wish to achieve business continuity

source : CDC – US Health Department

International Centre for Online Medical Education and Training