<p> The New Zealand 2006 Employees Pandemic Preparedness Course Aegility eLearning</p><p>PANDEMIC ASSESSMENT TOOL</p><p>Download this Free Pandemic Situation Assessment Tool. </p><p>This a Review of facts, events and thinking around what appears to be a pandemic threat. No everyone thinks the situation is serious. Use this list to help you make up your mind. </p><p>1. The risk of a pandemic is great. </p><p> During 2005/6 ominous changes have been observed in the epidemiology of the disease in animals. </p><p> Human cases are continuing to occur, </p><p> the virus has expanded its geographical range to include new countries, </p><p> this has increase the size of the population at risk. </p><p> Each new human case gives the virus an opportunity to evolve towards a fully transmissible pandemic strain. </p><p>2. The risk persists. Why? </p><p> This highly contagious influsz virus is hard to contain.</p><p> Evidence shows that the H5N1 virus is now endemic in parts of Asia, established in poultry. </p><p> Continuing opportunities for a pandemic virus to emerge. </p><p> Despite aggressive control measures, wild migratory birds are now dying in large numbers from highly pathogenic H5N1. </p><p> Migatory birds infect domestic chickens and ducks.</p><p> Ducks who do not show any signs of illness, excrete excrete large quantities of highly pathogenic virus every day.</p><p> Their silent role in the transmission chain raises the avoidance of risky behaviours to be more difficult. </p><p>3. Evolution of the threat cannot be predicted. </p><p> Given the constantly changing nature of influenza viruses, the timing and severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted.  This virus is constantly looking for a way to gain the capability to bind to human cells . That could be now, let us all hope it could be later</p><p> But it is necessary to be prepared as we do know it will come. </p><p> Hopefully human cases will break out initially as small clusters with evidence of limited transmission.</p><p> This will enable the world some time to take defensive action. Again, whether such a “grace period” will be granted is unknown. </p><p>4. The early warning system is weak. </p><p> Rural poverty continues to drive high-risk behaviours which easily lead to the repetitous cycle of infected birds migrating throughout the world.</p><p> Most affected countries cannot adequately compensate farmers for culled poultry so there is little reporting on bird to human cases. </p><p> Plus continuing traditional home-slaughter and consumption of diseased birds will also perpetuate the exposure cycle to humans, thus maintaining the high probability of virus mutation.</p><p> Inadequate medical supplies will also play a major role in the mortality rate. A vaccine could be created quite quickly once the new virus is identified and isolated. But it would take 12 months to manufacture what was needed.</p><p>Conclusion </p><p> o There will be no magic cure o We will all need to have well prepared employees who know what is expected of them and how to do it if we wish to achieve business continuity</p><p> source : CDC – US Health Department</p><p>International Centre for Online Medical Education and Training</p>