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KFC Holdings Japan / 9873 KFC Holdings Japan / 9873 COVERAGE INITIATED ON: 2016.10.31 LAST UPDATE: 2019.10.07 Shared Research Inc. has produced this report by request from the company discussed in the report. The aim is to provide an “owner’s manual” to investors. We at Shared Research Inc. make every effort to provide an accurate, objective, and neutral analysis. In order to highlight any biases, we clearly attribute our data and findings. We will always present opinions from company management as such. Our views are ours where stated. We do not try to convince or influence, only inform. We appreciate your suggestions and feedback. Write to us at [email protected] or find us on Bloomberg. Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. KFC Holdings Japan / 9873 RCoverage LAST UPDATE: 2019.10.07 Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. | www.sharedresearch.jp INDEX How to read a Shared Research report: This report begins with the trends and outlook section, which discusses the company’s most recent earnings. First-time readers should start at the business section later in the report. Executive summary ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Key financial data ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 Recent updates ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Highlights ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5 Trends and outlook ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 Monthly trends ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 Quarterly trends and results ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Medium-term management plan --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 Business ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15 Overview ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 KFC business ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 17 Earnings structure ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 Market and value chain ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 Strengths and weaknesses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 29 Financial statements ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 Income statement ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 Balance sheet ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 Cash flow statement -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 ROE, ROA, ROIC ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 33 Historical performance ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 News and topics ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 Other information ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 History -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 Corporate governance and top management --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 43 Major shareholders (As of March 31, 2019) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 44 Principal group companies (as of March 2019) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 44 Dividend policy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 44 Employees --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 45 By the way --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 45 Profile ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 46 02/47 KFC Holdings Japan / 9873 RCoverage LAST UPDATE: 2019.10.07 Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. | www.sharedresearch.jp Executive summary Core businesses Under a master franchise agreement with Yum! Brands Inc., KFC Holdings Japan operates KFC brand restaurants in Japan. The company also acts as a franchisor in Japan for the KFC brand, earning royalties and other revenues. The company says the KFC business had a leading domestic share of the fried chicken market, at 37% in 2015. As of end March 2019 the company had 306 directly operated restaurants primarily in Greater Tokyo, and 826 restaurants run by franchisees, mainly in regional areas. Japan’s fried chicken market has been relatively flat since 2000, and in 2003 major convenience stores began entering the fried chicken market. KFC is distinctive due to the brand power of its “original-recipe chicken,” which it has cultivated since its launch in Japan in 1970, and procurement arrangements with major trading company Mitsubishi Corporation (TSE1: 8058) for high-quality chicken. Convenience stores primarily use imported frozen chicken 50 days old or older, while KFC uses only Japan-raised chickens (about 40 days old), which are more tender but make stable procurement difficult. Trends and outlook Total revenues have been in the JPY70–90bn region since FY03/11. The company’s restaurant sales are sensitive to consumer trends because its meals are higher priced than other fast food and often purchased for special occasions, rather than as casual dining options. Operating profit declined from a peak of JPY3.5bn in FY03/11 to JPY700mn in FY03/15 due in part to deterioration of the Pizza Hut business, but recovered to JPY2.6bn in FY03/17 (+27.2% YoY) on cost cuts in the Pizza Hut business. Then in FY03/18, the company sold the Pizza Hut business, and operating profit fell to JPY500mn due to increases in ingredient and personnel costs and falling customer count in the KFC business. In FY03/19 the company posted consolidated revenues of JPY74.3bn (+1.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY2.2bn (4.6x higher YoY), and net income of JPY2.1bn (3.6x higher YoY). Excluding the effect of selling the Pizza Hut business (sold in June 2017), revenues increased 5.1% YoY, and operating profit was 4.6x higher YoY. The implementation of measures to increase customer numbers, such as the introduction of value meals aimed at promoting customer visits on regular days and the addition of new menu items to prevent customer boredom, has been successful, though. As of the end of FY03/19, the total number of KFC stores in operation was 1,132, down 21 versus the end of FY03/18 (directly operated stores down by 23 and franchise stores up by two); however, customer traffic was up 4.3% YoY, and spending per customer up 0.4% YoY, leading to improved results. On September 12, 2018, the company unveiled its medium-term management plan “Toward Our 50th Anniversary.” Under the brand slogan, Why not make it KFC today? introduced in FY03/19, the company is positioning FY03/19–FY03/21 as a period to rebuild the foundations of the KFC business to support sustainable brand growth. Key medium-term policies for the KFC business are 1) getting back to the roots of the business, 2) customer orientation (focus on frontline operations), and 3) the cultivation of human resources. For FY03/21, the company targets revenues of JPY75.0bn, operating profit of JPY2.4bn, an operating profit margin of 3.2%, and net income of JPY1.6bn. Strengths and weaknesses Shared Research thinks the company’s strengths are brand power cultivated since its founding; a business model built on a relationship with Mitsubishi; and economies
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