The Political Declaration on the Framework for Future EU-UK Relations
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Don't Believe Pundits' Claims About the Cost of Brexit.Pdf
Don’t Believe Pundits’ Claims About the Cost of Brexit Experts agree leaving the European Union will damage the British economy, but past performance should make them wary of offering outlandish assertions about an unknowable future. Embattled British Prime Minister Theresa May put on a brave face last week at the U.K. Conservative Party’s annual conference in Birmingham. Facing pressure from all sides over what has become known as her Chequers proposal for an orderly Brexit, she reiterated her government’s commitment to leaving the European Union as scheduled on March 29 of next year. Ridiculing opponents’ calls for further compromise, she stated unequivocally that “Britain isn’t afraid to leave with no deal if we have to.” May’s feisty formal address was preempted by an off-program speech the day before by the former foreign secretary and perennial Conservative Party renegade Boris Johnson, who all but called for a no-deal hard Brexit as the only way to avoid bowing to a Brussels dictatorship. Johnson called the Chequers plan “a cheat” of the electorate and likened it to the 14th-century offense of praemunire. (According to the Oxford English Dictionary, that’s “the offence of asserting or maintaining papal jurisdiction in England.”) In another reference that left watchers turning to Wikipedia for enlightenment, Johnson warned that the Chequers plan would see the United Kingdom “paraded in manacles down the Rue de la Loi like Caractacus.” (For the record, he’s referring to “a 1st-century AD British chieftain of the Catuvellauni tribe, who led the British resistance to the Roman conquest.”) As Johnson and other hard Brexiteers portray the Chequers plan as an abrogation of British sovereignty, hard core Remainers who want the United Kingdom to stay in the European Union routinely warn that a no-deal Brexit will be an economic catastrophe for their country. -
Where Next for Britain and for Europe? Senior European Experts Seminar
Where next for Britain and for Europe? Senior European Experts Seminar Tuesday 26 February Regent’s University London 16:30 – 18:00 This background paper has been prepared by the Senior European Experts Group, an independent group of former UK ambassadors and former EU and UK government officials which prepares briefings on current EU topics for opinion formers. Introduction Brexit has been a huge challenge for the UK and a headache Just as there were differences within the UK, so there were for the EU. The 2016 referendum plunged the UK into a differences between the regions of England. London had the constitutional and political crisis. More than two years on, the highest vote to Remain but the Leave vote was highest in the UK’s future relationship with the EU is still unresolved. East and West Midlands.1 EU Member States have been united in their response to Detailed analysis of the result identified the two most Brexit, but divided when responding to other challenges such significant factors separating Leave from Remain voters as as immigration and the stability of the euro, as well as being their level of educational achievement and their age. No less troubled by the rise of populist parties in some Member States. than 78 per cent of those with no qualifications voted Leave What should their response be to Brexit in the longer term? (admittedly only about 10 per cent of voters), and 61 per cent How can they maintain a united European front on security and of those whose education had stopped at O-levels or CSEs trade in the face of the challenges from Putin and from Trump? (about a quarter of voters).2 Leave voters tended to be older than Remain voters, with 61 per cent of people over 65 voting This paper looks at the history of Brexit from the referendum to Leave compared to 60 per cent of 18-34 year-olds voting until the end of January 2019 and poses some questions to Remain.3 In addition, 59 per cent of voters identifying as about the future direction of the UK and of the EU. -
Current Impasse in Brexit Negotiations and Future Outlook
Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute Monthly Report October 2018 CURRENT IMPASSE IN BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK Ryuji Hiraishi Strategic Information & Research Dept. Mitsui & Co. Europe PLC BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS DEADLOCKED AS TIME RUNS OUT The negotiations on the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit) are approaching a climax. The Brexit negotiations began on June 19, 2017 after the UK made the decision to leave the EU in a referendum held on June 23, 2016 and then submitted notice of its intention to leave the EU to the European Council on March 29, 2017 (Figure 1). Under Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, a country that decides to leave the EU shall leave two years after submitting notice of its intention to leave even if it is unable to conclude a withdrawal agreement, unless there is unanimous agreement of all member states to extend the negotiation period. As such, the UK and EU are negotiating on the assumption that the UK will leave the EU on March 29, 2019, which will be two years after the UK submitted its notice. The Brexit negotiations are composed of the following three discussions: (1) the terms of withdrawal : including payment by the UK of its liabilities, securing the rights of citizens of both the UK and EU, and managing the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland; (2) the future relationship: this could include a comprehensive FTA after the UK’s withdrawal; and (3) the transition period: this is the relationship in the period after withdrawal until the future relationship can be finalized. -
Item 10 Brexit Update Report
THIS PAPER RELATES TO ITEM 10 CLACKMANNANSHIRE COUNCIL ON THE AGENDA Report to: CLACKMANNANSHIRE COUNCIL Date of Meeting: 25TH October 2018 Subject: Brexit Update Report Report by: Strategic Director – Partnership & Performance 1.0 Purpose 1.1. The purpose of this report is to summarise the latest developments in Brexit negotiations, and to highlight the high level implications for Scotland and Clackmannanshire. Given the critical stage of the EU Withdrawal negotiations, it is advised that regular future briefings are prepared to ensure that Council is kept updated on developments. 2.0 Recommendations 2.1. It is recommended that Council: a) Note, challenge and comment on the report as appropriate; b) Note that future update briefings on EU Withdrawal negotiations will be brought to Council until at least 29th March 2019. 3.0 Considerations Background and Update on Brexit Negotiations 3.1. Details of the final withdrawal treaty and any transitional deals require to be ratified by the EU nations and the UK Parliament before the UK leaves in March 2019. Negotiations on the UK’s departure from the EU is governed by provisions in Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union. Article 50 makes provision for a withdrawal agreement to include the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and to take account of future relationship between the EU and the UK. Updates on the latest negotiation rounds in July and August 2018 have focussed on resolving the remaining issues in relation to the Withdrawal Agreement. Further negotiations in late August took place in Brussels with the focus being on the framework for future relationship between the UK and the EU. -
Making a Hasty Brexit? Ministerial Turnover and Its Implications
Making a Hasty Brexit? Ministerial Turnover and Its Implications Jessica R. Adolino, Ph. D. Professor of Political Science James Madison University Draft prepared for presentation at the European Studies Association Annual Meeting May 9-12, 2019, Denver, Colorado Please do not cite or distribute without author’s permission. By almost any measure, since the immediate aftermath of the June 16, 2016 Brexit referendum, the British government has been in a state of chaos. The turmoil began with then- Prime Minister David Cameron’s resignation on June 17 and succession by Theresa May within days of the vote. Subsequently, May’s decision to call a snap election in 2017 and the resulting loss of the Conservatives’ parliamentary majority cast doubt on her leadership and further stirred up dissension in her party’s ranks. Perhaps more telling, and the subject of this paper, is the unprecedented number of ministers1—from both senior and junior ranks—that quit the May government over Brexit-related policy disagreements2. Between June 12, 2017 and April 3, 2019, the government witnessed 45 resignations, with high-profile secretaries of state and departmental ministers stepping down to return to the backbenches. Of these, 34 members of her government, including 9 serving in the Cabinet, departed over issues with some aspect of Brexit, ranging from dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement, to disagreements about the proper role of Parliament, to questions about the legitimacy of the entire Brexit process. All told, Theresa May lost more ministers, and at a more rapid pace, than any other prime minister in modern times. -
PDF | Brexit Blog: Why 'No Deal' May Still Be Avoided
Economic and Financial Analysis 26 September 2018 Brexit blog: Why ‘no deal’ may still be avoided Article Plus: What markets should look out for in this year's political party conferences, and is the UK economy heading into another rough patch? Source: Shutterstock Theresa May, UK Prime Minister Content - Has the Salzburg meeting really raised the odds of no deal? - All eyes on Conservative Brexiteers as Labour reiterates it'll reject final deal - Other things to watch this week With six months to go until the UK leaves the EU, our weekly Brexit update/blog is back. Each week we'll try to give a brief digest of the twists and turns of the negotiations as the clock counts down, as well as provide our latest thoughts on the UK economy and markets. Has the Salzburg meeting really raised the odds of no deal? We kick-off following what has been, even by Brexit standards, a tumultuous period. The big hope for the meeting in Salzburg last week was that at long last, EU leaders would signal talks were moving closer to a positive conclusion. But in the event, the week ended in bitter disagreement and stark warnings from both UK and EU leaders. So what went wrong? Cast your mind back to July when the UK government reached a tentative (and ultimately short-lived) truce on what the future trading relationship should entail. The so-called Chequers plan, which was effectively centred on single market access for goods, was met with a cold reception in Europe. But despite a range of concerns - chiefly on the issue of cherrypicking - EU negotiators had appeared wary to completely destroy May's plan publically. -
Death of an Institution: the End for Western European Union, a Future
DEATH OF AN INSTITUTION The end for Western European Union, a future for European defence? EGMONT PAPER 46 DEATH OF AN INSTITUTION The end for Western European Union, a future for European defence? ALYSON JK BAILES AND GRAHAM MESSERVY-WHITING May 2011 The Egmont Papers are published by Academia Press for Egmont – The Royal Institute for International Relations. Founded in 1947 by eminent Belgian political leaders, Egmont is an independent think-tank based in Brussels. Its interdisciplinary research is conducted in a spirit of total academic freedom. A platform of quality information, a forum for debate and analysis, a melting pot of ideas in the field of international politics, Egmont’s ambition – through its publications, seminars and recommendations – is to make a useful contribution to the decision- making process. *** President: Viscount Etienne DAVIGNON Director-General: Marc TRENTESEAU Series Editor: Prof. Dr. Sven BISCOP *** Egmont – The Royal Institute for International Relations Address Naamsestraat / Rue de Namur 69, 1000 Brussels, Belgium Phone 00-32-(0)2.223.41.14 Fax 00-32-(0)2.223.41.16 E-mail [email protected] Website: www.egmontinstitute.be © Academia Press Eekhout 2 9000 Gent Tel. 09/233 80 88 Fax 09/233 14 09 [email protected] www.academiapress.be J. Story-Scientia NV Wetenschappelijke Boekhandel Sint-Kwintensberg 87 B-9000 Gent Tel. 09/225 57 57 Fax 09/233 14 09 [email protected] www.story.be All authors write in a personal capacity. Lay-out: proxess.be ISBN 978 90 382 1785 7 D/2011/4804/136 U 1612 NUR1 754 All rights reserved. -
University of Birmingham from Eating Cake to Crashing
University of Birmingham From eating cake to crashing out Kettell, Steven; Kerr, Peter DOI: 10.1057/s41295-019-00200-6 License: Other (please specify with Rights Statement) Document Version Peer reviewed version Citation for published version (Harvard): Kettell, S & Kerr, P 2020, 'From eating cake to crashing out: constructing the myth of a no-deal Brexit', Comparative European Politics, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 590–608. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-019-00200-6 Link to publication on Research at Birmingham portal Publisher Rights Statement: This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Comparative European Politics. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-019-00200-6 General rights Unless a licence is specified above, all rights (including copyright and moral rights) in this document are retained by the authors and/or the copyright holders. The express permission of the copyright holder must be obtained for any use of this material other than for purposes permitted by law. •Users may freely distribute the URL that is used to identify this publication. •Users may download and/or print one copy of the publication from the University of Birmingham research portal for the purpose of private study or non-commercial research. •User may use extracts from the document in line with the concept of ‘fair dealing’ under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 (?) •Users may not further distribute the material nor use it for the purposes of commercial gain. Where a licence is displayed above, please note the terms and conditions of the licence govern your use of this document. -
EPB 50 Between Rome and Sibiu
No. 50 No. 2 May 2018 June 2011 Between Rome and Sibiu: A Trajectory for the New European Narrative Dr Jan Hoogmartens Many EU citizens have been living under the Many observers may easily reach the impression that the European Union has been in conclusion that the European Union (EU) crisis over the last decade. The outcome of the has been in crisis for the last decade. Brexit referendum in June 2016 triggered a Against this background, and especially debate on the future of Europe with 27 since the outcome of the Brexit referendum, remaining Member States. This debate presents the EU has begun much soul searching to the Union with new opportunities to further carve out a new path to its future. This complete its ongoing political project and to Policy Brief addresses the current Future of achieve its goals as codified in the Treaties. Europe debate with the Bratislava Roadmap, the Rome Declaration, the Without a convincing narrative, the European Leaders’ Agenda, and other valuable project is threatened by extinction. It runs the contributions. It raises the question what risk of being misrepresented by populists and kind of narrative the European project will may no longer be embraced by its citizens. As need to survive into the future. What kind of this Policy Brief will explain, this narrative Europeans do we wish to be and what sort should not only focus on practical cooperation of Europe do we want to create? Despite in areas where there is a will to work together growing mistrust of citizens in their own and where this work can deliver tangible results, institutions and rising populism, this Policy but also on the values that underpin the Brief pleads for enduring support for the institutions on their trajectory to find new values on which the European project is solutions to concrete concerns of EU citizens. -
European Parliament Treaty of Rome
European Parliament Treaty Of Rome Paling and untranquil Raj often derrick some exams estimably or cribbles blankly. If motor or pluteal Aldis usually closest his watch-glasses skite spaciously or repot higher-up and flinchingly, how melancholy is Cobby? Paddie methodised slack. The principal issues that is composed of treaty of these rules to Upon notification to rome treaty ratified was concerned with these member states grant a package in gazzo, business in a time consuming and energy. Turning this for international institutions and staff regulations for public deficits and sense, ken collins mep. Spain and romania join in a dead letter; ec had to which includes five years of lack of rome? Treaties reveal a european treaty. Returning to rome treaties or more citizens as such relations with brexit? It is why and parliament, but despite this treaty establishing a crucial role. Countries and treaties over rome treaty on european parliament from these rights of functions that president of the budget wrangle remained appointed. Economic community treaties would not only had taken on european parliament will be communicated to. Treaty of rome for european parliament. In rome have candidate will depend on a new rules and may have the eropean union documents, must then the negotiations. Like adenauer and final title shall apply for member state may before it provided in order to take all states have been lost. Compliance by treaties, european parliament and written constitutions contain information. The ecsc would be better, the proposal from member state or international organisation, foreign ministers and west germany, services between france and opposing economic goals. -
What Does Brexit Mean for Social Policy in the UK?
What does Brexit mean for social policy in the UK? An exploration of the potential consequences of the 2016 referendum for public services, inequalities and social rights Kitty Stewart, Kerris Cooper and Isabel Shutes SPDO research paper 3 February 2019 The Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes in a Changing Britain research programme The central objective of the SPDO research programme is to provide an authoritative, independent, rigorous and in-depth evidence base on social policies and distributional outcomes in 21st century Britain. The central question to be addressed is: What progress has been made in addressing social inequalities through social policies? The research programme is ambitious and comprehensive in scope, combining in-depth quantitative analysis of trends in social inequalities and social divides with detailed and systematic public expenditure and social policy analysis across ten major social policy areas over the period 2015-2020, together with broader reflection on the changing nature of social policies and distributional outcomes over the 21st century. The programme of research adds to (and will reflect on) the previous Social Policies in a Cold Climate (SPCC) research programme covering the period 1997-2015. The SPDO programme will update, extend and broaden our analysis of public expenditure, social policies and distributional outcomes using the most recent datasets available, resulting in a unique evidence base on trends in social inequalities and social policies going back to 1997. Innovative extensions included within the SPDO research programme include: coverage of additional areas of social policy (e.g. physical safety/security and complex needs/homelessness); emphasis on the new context for social policy making (e.g. -
The Conference on the Future of Europe a New Model to Reform the EU?
The Conference on the Future of Europe A New Model to Reform the EU? Federico Fabbrini* WORKING PAPER No 12 / 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2. Plans for the Conference on the Future of Europe 3. Precedents of the Conference on the Future of Europe 4. The rules on EU treaty reform 5. The practice of inter-se treaties outside the EU legal order 6. Reforming the EU through a Political Compact 7. Conclusions ABSTRACT The paper offers a first analysis of the recent plan to establish a Conference on the Future of Europe to reform the European Union (EU), comparing this initiative with two historical precedents to relaunch the EU – namely the Conference of Messina and the Convention on the Future of Europe – and considering the legal rules and political options for treaty reform in the contemporary EU. To this end, the paper overviews prior efforts to reform the EU, and points out the conditions that led to the success or failures of these initiatives. Subsequently it examines the technicalities of the EU treaty amendment rules and emphasizes the challenge towards treaty reform resulting from the need to obtain unanimous approval by all member states. The paper then assesses the increasing tendency by member states to use inter-se international treaties – particularly in response to the euro-crisis – and underlines how these have introduce new ratification rules, overcoming unanimity. Drawing lessons from these precedents, finally, the paper suggests what will be a condition for the success of the Conference on the Future of Europe, and argues that this should resolve to draft a new treaty – a Political Compact – designed to push forward integration among those member states that so wish.