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A New Regional Climate Model Operating at the Meso-Gamma Scale: Performance Over Europe

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A New Regional Climate Model Operating at the Meso-Gamma Scale: Performance Over Europe SERIES A DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY PUBLISHED BY THE INTERNATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE IN STOCKHOLM A new regional climate model operating at the meso-gamma scale: performance over Europe By DAVID LINDSTEDT1,2*, PETTER LIND1,2, ERIK KJELLSTRO¨ M 1,2 and COLIN JONES1,3, 1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrko¨ping, Sweden; 2Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; 3National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK (Manuscript received 20 February 2014; in final form 2 December 2014) ABSTRACT There are well-known difficulties to run numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models at resolutions traditionally referred to as ‘grey-zone’ (Â3Á8 km) where deep convection is neither completely resolved by the model dynamics nor completely subgrid. In this study, we describe the performance of an operational NWP model, HARMONIE, in a climate setting (HCLIM), run at two different resolutions (6 and 15 km) for a 10-yr period (1998Á2007). This model has a convection scheme particularly designed to operate in the ‘grey-zone’ regime, which increases the realism and accuracy of the time and spatial evolution of convective processes compared to more traditional parametrisations. HCLIM is evaluated against standard observational data sets over Europe as well as high-resolution, regional, observations. Not only is the regional climate very well represented but also higher order climate statistics and smaller scale spatial characteristics of precipitation are in good agreement with observations. The added value when making climate simulations at Â5 km resolution compared to more typical regional climate model resolutions is mainly seen for the very rare, high-intensity precipitation events. HCLIM at 6 km resolution reproduces the frequency and intensity of these events better than at 15 km resolution and is in closer agreement with the high-resolution observations. Keywords: grey-zone, HARMONIE, high resolution, dynamical downscaling, regional climate model, precipitation extremes 1. Introduction 2012). With the use of an atmosphere-only global climate model (GCM) run in an aqua-planet configuration, Li et al. Accurate and reliable projections of future precipita- (2011) could investigate purely atmospheric precipitation- tion distributions remain one of the greatest challenges in producing processes (i.e. model parametrisations and dy- the climate model community. Current generation climate namics) and their dependence across resolutions. The results models, global and regional, struggle to accurately cap- did not depict any clear convergence when increasing re- ture the observed intensity and frequency of precipitation, solution from Â2.88 to 0.358; however, precipitation ex- deviating from observations most radically at the ex- tremes demonstrated larger sensitivity to resolution than the treme high- and/or low-intensity tails of the distribution mean values. Despite the idealistic setup, the result empha- (e.g. Kjellstro¨ m et al., 2010; Wehner, 2013), lowering the sised the importance of model resolution for simulating confidence in models projections of changes in these features higher order statistics of rainfall. under climate change scenarios. One important reason for Running GCMs at a higher resolution than Â50 km this discrepancy is likely the low resolution presently used in [a resolution often considered a threshold resolution for climate models, an issue which has been extensively dis- a realistic simulation of mid-latitude synoptic variability cussed and studied (e.g. Iorio et al., 2004; Hohenegger et al., (e.g. Jung et al., 2012)] is still generally too expensive, and 2008; Gent et al., 2010; Wehner et al., 2010; Kendon et al., therefore dynamical downscaling provides a means to explore finer scale climate information and interactions, *Corresponding author. as they are able to capture local and regional forcings. email: [email protected] Several studies have assessed the horizontal resolution Tellus A 2015. # 2015 D. Lindstedt et al. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0 License (http:// 1 creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), allowing third parties to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format and to remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially, provided the original work is properly cited and states its license. Citation: Tellus A 2015, 67, 24138, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.24138 (page number not for citation purpose) 2 D. LINDSTEDT ET AL. dependence in regional climate models (RCMs) (e.g. Leung In a case study, Yu and Lee (2010) investigated the role and Qian, 2003; Gao et al., 2006; Rauscher et al., 2010; of CP in a numerical weather prediction (NWP) setting Sharma and Huang, 2012; Larsen et al., 2013). The at resolutions ranging from 3 to 9 km. Simulations of a majority of these, as for GCM studies, reach the conclusion convective band over the mid-Korean Peninsula showed of an improvement as the resolution increases, especially that a 3 km grid was able to resolve the convective system in regions of complex terrain. However, it is not always without CP, which was not possible at a coarser resolu- evident what is the primary cause of the improvement: the tion. All simulations with CP gave a too-wide rainfall area dynamics, the finer representation of local and regional and the authors concluded that one of the major issues forcings or the model physics. Gao et al. (2006) reported with this CP was the false triggering of convection. They that resolution sensitivity of the latter was more important suggested a modification in the triggering of convection, than surface forcing to accurately represent precipita- which was shown to improve the results especially for tion over complex terrain in East Asia. In a recent study, a 6 km simulation. This shows the importance of the CP Larsen et al. (2013) investigated the sensitivity of simulated scheme at this scale. precipitation to domain size (where all domains were Fosser et al. (2014) is one of few studies that address the kept sufficiently large so that the errors caused by the delicate problem of running a climate model in a multiyear lateral boundary forcings did not dominate the interior), transient simulation in the grey-zone regime (over central in addition to varied resolution. They concluded that, for Europe). Similar to Yu and Lee, Fosser et al. conclude that Denmark and surrounding areas, the results from a larger at 7 km, convection is not explicitly resolved and para- domain were superior to those of a smaller domain with metrisation is still required. But their implemented scheme higher resolution. (Tiedtke, 1989) proved not to be applicable at this high Therefore, just increasing resolution does not necessarily resolution, particularly when looking at subdaily statistics. imply better results. Even though a finer grid enables more Also Berg et al. (2012) and Lucas-Picher et al. (2012) have processes to be resolved, as well as more realistic surface carried out multidecadal RCM simulations within the grey- forcing, for example in association with topography and zone (7 and 5.5 km, respectively). Berg et al. (2012) showed land ocean contrasts, the impact of these on the model that the high-resolution simulations are comparable to response may be modified or even masked by artefacts and coarser state-of-the-art simulations. Furthermore, the high errors in the model parametrisation, in some cases even end of the precipitation intensity distribution over Germany deteriorating the resulting response (Giorgi and Marinucci, showed good resemblance to high-resolution observations. 1996; Pope and Stratton, 2002). For example, Wilcox and However, they did not investigate the validity of using the convective parametrisation scheme at this resolution. Donner (2007) concluded that the difference in simulated The study of Lucas-Picher et al. (2012) aimed to identify frequency of extreme rain events using two different con- added value for a high-resolution simulation over Greenland vection schemes (in otherwise identical model setup) was when contrasted to a coarser one at 27.75 km. The finer larger than the change in the frequency of heavy rain events  description of the orography led to a change in the pre- associated with a 2-K warming using either scheme. cipitation pattern and more physical plausible climate fields. As the grid size is reduced to Â5 km, usually referred The spatial variability increased in the high-resolution to as the ‘grey-zone’ scale, convective precipitation response simulation, but due to the sparseness of observations over often starts to degrade as most convection parametrisa- Greenland it was difficult to fully validate. tion (CP) schemes are not designed for this resolution. The NWP model HARMONIE (Hirlam Aladin Regio- The reason for this deficiency is two-fold; first, there is nal Mesoscale Operational NWP In Europe) is especially an increase in the risk of double counting convective pre- interesting in this respect as it is specifically developed to be cipitation and associated diabatic effects via both CP and used at a large range of horizontal resolutions within the resolved scale cloud processes (Gerard, 2007); second, meso-gamma scale (from around 10 km down to 3Á4 km). through the closure of the scheme, excessive stabilisation Particularly, it has a convection scheme that is designed at the grid point might arise suppressing the convective to operate in the grey-zone regime (Gerard, 2007; Gerard activity (Gerard et al., 2009). et al., 2009). This is achieved primarily through Thus, at these spatial scales, parametrisations of convec- tion eventually start to seriously violate underlying statis- (1) A clean separation of resolved and subgrid con- tical assumptions upon which the schemes are based; hence, densates to avoid double counting. these have to become more sophisticated to account for the (2) The use of a prognostic closure instead of a diagnostic stronger interactions between small-scale convection and one, which relieves the need for a quasi-equilibrium mesoscale processes (e.g.
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