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Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Assessment Greater Malang

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Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Assessment Greater Malang Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Assessment Greater Malang Synthesis Report June 2012 Ministry of Environment Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment of Greater Malang – Synthesis Report © 2012 Ministry of Environment Published by: Ministry of Environment Jalan D.I. Panjaitan kav. 24, Jakarta 13410 Tel : +6221 858 0081 Fax : +6221 858 0081 Website : www.menlh.go.id Email : [email protected] / [email protected] ISBN: 978-602-8358-55-2 The content and material in this book can freely be reproduced and publicized with the condition of not altering the content and meaning of this document. Quoting is permissible by mentioning the source. The development of this document was supported by: Authors Adviser Prof. Dr. Balthasar Kambuaya, MBA, Ministry of Environment Coordinator Ir. Arief Yuwono, MA, Deputi Bidang Pengendalian Kerusakan Lingkungan dan Perubahan Iklim Editor in Chief Ir. Emma Rachmawaty, M.Sc, Asisten Deputi Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim Team from Ministry of Environment drs. Haneda Sri Mulyanto, MAS Ir. Tri Widayati, MT dra. Kusmulyani, MS Koko Wijanarko, S.Hut Yulia Suryanti, S.Si., M.Sc Astutie Widyarissantie, ST Team from AusAID Didi Marjimi Amrita Wedha Team from GIZ Tilman Hertz Ni Luh Made Ashanapuri Coordinator of Expert Team : Djoko Santoso Abi Suroso, PhD Assistant to the Coordinator : Muhammad Suhardjono Fitriyanto, M.Sc Policy Expert : Wilmar Salim, PhD Climate & Temperature Projection Expert : Dr. Tri Wahyu Hadi Sea level rise Projection Expert : Dr. Ibnu Sofian Marine and Coastal Expert : Dr. Hamzah Latief Water Resource Expert : Dr. Oman A, Dr. Budhi S. Health Expert : Prof. Ridad Agoes, Dr. Asep Sofyan Agriculture Expert : Prof. Handoko, Dr. Ruminta Administration Team: Mendur Lestira Harliana Cover picture by Darmastyo Wicaktomo Sudarto Acknowledgment The publication of this report has been made possible by the high degree of commitment and cooperation between all parties involved. The Ministry of Environment would like to thank all working units of local government in Tarakan City, South Sumatera Province, Malang Raya Area (Kota Malang, Kabupaten Malang, Kota Batu), GIZ and AusAID, We are grateful to the many representatives from local governments and universities who have contributed and supported directly and indirectly the preparation of this report. We thanked for shared information, experiences, and opinions gathered in the framework of many project events; public consultations, prioritization of adaptation options, synchronizaiton and mainstreaming events. It has helped considerably the completion of the assessment. Foreword by the Deputy Minister for Environmental Damage Control and Climate Change The impacts of climate change are already being felt all over Indonesia: extreme climate events have hit several parts of Indonesia in the past and have shown that the country is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Therefore we need real action to improve community resilience to foster resistance to shock and climate disruption, as an essential component for sustainable development. Indonesia has a coastline of approximately 80,000 km and more than 17,000 islands. Many economic activities are carried out in coastal areas and many people’s livelihoods depend on sectors that are highly sensitive to climate change, such as the agricultural sector. Due to these geographical conditions, Indonesia is highly vulnerable to climate change. Increasing the resilience to climate change is therefore an important task. Even though future climate - as a result of climate change - can be said to be subject of uncertainty, we must begin now to develop a strategy to address issues of climate variability and to understand the impact based on the knowledge that the most cutting-edge techniques available up to date can provide us with. Vulnerability to climate change is often specific to the local context. Hence, understanding climate change impacts at the local level is important and fundamental for addressing climate change. This can be best achieved by the implementation of a Risk and Adaptation Assessment to climate change. Such an assessment can be done at a general level (macro scale), intermediate level (meso scale) or detailed level (micro scale), depending on what kind of information is required. The Government of Indonesia, through the Ministry of Environment and with support from AusAID and GIZ, has conducted a Risk and Adaptation Assessments to climate change (Krapi) at several pilot sites, for the island of Lombok, for South Sumatra Province, for the Greater Malang area (meso scale) as well as the for the City of Tarakan (micro scale). The implementation of these studies began with a public consultation to identify vulnerable sectors affected by climate change, it continued with a synchronization of programs at local and national levels, and ended with the integration of recommendations from the assessment of options and climate change adaptation strategies into local development and spatial planning. There are many things that can be learned from each assessment as well as from the context and particularities of the different regions. Some important lessons learned are: • The importance of ensuring the availability and accessibility of data series that can be used for the Risk and Adaptation Assessment, especially for the preparation of information for current and projected climate change (esp. rainfall patterns, temperature) and sea level rise; • The importance of ensuring the availability and accessibility of data related to social, economic and development planning, present and future, so that the Climate Risk can be better estimated; • The importance of increasing the amount of available resources and capacities, including funding for adaptation action itself but also for the continued formation of experts through increased funding for research and development. • The importance of exploring the potential of local knowledge when it comes to climate change adaptation. • The importance of synchronizing and harmonizing national and regional development programs with the climate change adaptation options proposed by the experts. The studies conducted in South Sumatra Province, the City of Tarakan and Greater Malang (District of Malang, Cities of Batu and Malang) identified four sectors that are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, namely the coastal sector (including fisheries and marine affairs), the water (including water resources, floods and landslides), agriculture, and health sectors. Recommendations from this study may be one input for the development planning processes in South Sumatra Province, City of Tarakan and Malang (District of Malang, Cities of Batu and Malang) through the integration of its results into the RPJMD, RPJP, and other planning tools. The implementation of this study is expected to be a best practice example for addressing climate change at local level, and it is expected to be replicated in other areas in Indonesia in order to increase Indonesia’s resilience to the impacts of climate change. While carrying out this study, the local governments of South Sumatra Province, the City of Tarakan and the Greater Malang (District of Malang, Cities of Batu and Malang) have greatly supported the process. Hereby, I would like thank them for their continued and valuable contribution. Jakarta, June 2012 Deputy MENLH Deputy Minister of Environmental Damage Control and Climate Change Arief Yuwono i Table of Contents Authors ...................................................................................................................... v Table of Contents .................................................................................................... i List of Table .............................................................................................................. v List of Figure ............................................................................................................ vii 1. Description and Strategic Issues of Greater Malang .................................... 9 1.1 Physical conditions ...................................................................................... 9 1.1.1 Geographical Setting of Greater Malang ......................................... 9 1.1.2 Physical Development Growth in Greater Malang ......................... 10 1.2 Socioeconomic conditions .......................................................................... 11 1.2.1 Population ............................................................................................. 11 1.2.2 Economic Structure ............................................................................. 12 1.3 Strategic Issues ............................................................................................ 13 2. Supporting Scientific Data ................................................................................. 15 2.1 Climate Analysis and Projection ................................................................ 15 2.1.1 Mean Annual Pattern of Rainfall and Temperature in Greater Malang .................................................................................................. 15 2.1.2 Historical Climatic Hazards: Trend, Variability, and Extremes ..... 16 2.1.3 Projection of Future Rainfall and Temperature Changes .............. 20 2.1.4 Analysis of Extreme Events ............................................................... 25 3. Risk and Adaptation Assessment Methodology ............................................ 29 3.1
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