JANUARY 2015 After the 2014 escalation: The front line between and Overview and Key Outcomes

OVER THE LAST TWO DECADES, the standoff between Armenians and Azerbaijanis has often been characterised as ‘no war, no peace’ as there has been little progress on resolving Armenia-Azerbaijan: the Nagorny Karabakh (NK) conflict. The unresolved conflict continues to pose ongoing and Protect Civilians Project evolving challenges on the ground, including insecurity, long-term displacement, and ingrained This study was made possible by mistrust. the support of the Swiss Federal In 2014, however, the situation escalated towards ‘more war and less peace’, as both Department of Foreign Affairs. It is Azerbaijani and Armenian villagers describe it. The year was marked by increased fighting, part of Saferworld’s project, jointly implemented with Civil Society more human loss and damage, and several major security incidents. Institute (Yerevan) and Society for One group particularly hit hard by this escalation are ordinary Azerbaijanis and Armenians Humanitarian Research (), living on either side of the border. Communities on both sides report loss and injury and a which aims to study and publicising great increase of worry and fear. Parents are worried about their children’s safety. The fighting the security concerns of the has made it hard to continue farming, choking the main source of income for most households. communities living near Armenian- Azerbaijani frontlines and add In response, both sides should explore ways of de-escalating the conflict at a local level, so their voice to security provision and that communities are not caught up in spirals of escalation. Both sides may benefit from processes. basic measures that would address key community concerns, such as the safety of children attending kindergartens and school, or making arrangements that make it possible to collect harvests without being shot at. Communities need help in coping with the prospect of ongoing military action, for example with more firefighting equipment as well as more medical support. People stressed that they want to be actively involved and that authorities and international organisations should work closely with local people, to ensure measures target their needs. This briefing provides broad The findings and recommendations in this policy brief and the accompanying report were recommendations to various drawn from consultations and interviews conducted in late 2014 among people directly stakeholders. More detailed affected by the conflict, in ten Azerbaijani communities located close to the border with background information and Armenia, in the districts of Gazakh, Tovuz and , and in nine communities in the recommendations can be found in region on the Armenian side of the border. This report thus focused on the northern regions the main report, Towards a secure of Azerbaijan and Armenia, and did not specifically focus on communities close to the Line of future: community voices in border Contact around Nagorny Karabakh. areas of Armenia and Azerbaijan. AFTER THE 2014 ESCALATION: THE FRONT LINE BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN

Findings and Recommendations

Importance of de-escalating locally

All sides should work to prevent creates a risk of unchecked escalation. Part of recognising patterns of escalation is new incidents that can contribute The communities do receive some national to understand the role of particular stories. to future escalation. attention, for example through the media Of particular concern in 2014 were several reporting on increased hostilities. This instances of Armenians crossing onto the The escalation of hostilities in 2014 means that the way the local communities Azerbaijani side, presumably after losing along the border between Armenia perceive the conflict also affects how the their way. Seeing a fellow villager paraded and Azerbaijan highlighted familiar broader narratives within the countries. on Azerbaijani television, shortly before his but potentially dangerous patterns of death in captivity, was a searing experience escalation. If unchecked, these patterns “The government should act more for Armenians. It contributed to a sense of could potentially drag Armenia and decisively to repel such Armenian the inevitability of conflict. Azerbaijan into a more intensified attacks.” resumption of hostilities, even if this Former serviceman, Alibeyli Similarly, Azerbaijani communities have outcome is not initially fully intended by their stories of innocent victims of explosive Recognising the pattern for what it is either side. devices, mines and snipers, few of which and awareness of its symmetry are key to are likely to be familiar to people on the “They shoot every day, there is no day avoiding a potential spiral of escalation. Armenian side. Even the crossings of without shooting.” So far, there is limited evidence that there Armenians to the Azerbaijani side are seen is strong awareness of these risks in the Villagers, and Chinari as ominous: in an exposed Azerbaijani communities and beyond. This could, at These dangerous patterns of escalation are community the arrival of an Armenian some point, fuel rhetoric that will make it discernible at a local level. Communities raised the fear of positions being probed, in more difficult for either side to back down on both sides appear to believe that their advance of local attacks. To the extent that and de-escalate. side is primarily responding to ceasefire this report is read on either side, it may violations from the other side. There is Yet it could also have an even more direct serve as a reminder that there typically is a keen awareness of losses and damage impact, as the planned formation of village more symmetry than either side is willing suffered by one’s own side. The other side self-defence units in Azerbaijan illustrates. at first to acknowledge. is primarily seen as inflicting violence Such units, also discussed in focus groups, All sides should do their utmost to prevent rather than as also suffering. would involve local communities even more any new such incidents. The border directly in the conflict. “At times they shell our village for communities illustrate that in an escalation five-six hours without a break.” Residents report limited progress in the any satisfaction received is likely to be Woman, pensioner, from Jafarli formation of such units. As the concept short-lived. is still under development, Azerbaijani Yet there is powerful symmetry: it appears political and military leaders may indeed KEY RECOMMENDATION that both sides shoot at villages of the want to consider the potential risks. There n All sides should work to prevent new other side, with both sides sustaining is good reason why traditionally militaries incidents, and explore mechanisms to significant damage in villages over the have been cautious about complementing de-escalate locally, to ensure that the summer of 2014, especially in August. their forces with local residents who may situation does not unintentionally spiral Both sides report that some of the roads have attachments and emotions that out of control in the future. are regularly under fire and that moving override strategic intent. vehicles are shot at. People on both sides say they are primarily worried about snipers, though also that they are being kept up at night by gunfire. People on both sides report just how hard it is to live and believe that there is a future, under these circumstances. “Our home came under direct fire from the Azerbaijani side, it looked like another war, and I took the grandchildren and walked to a nearby village, from where our friend drove us with his car to the city.” 57-year-old woman, Seeing oneself as just responding to the ceasefire violations of the other side Local people hit hard by the escalation of 2014

If they want their communities to grow up normally as there is too much subsistence-level income, are losing their thrive, both sides should work to fear. On both sides, there are reports that economic base. Even cattle-herding, often avoid a repeat of 2014, as hostilities children are more scared, and now jump at a last resort for subsistence farmers, are hit their own communities hard. any loud sound. proving difficult as shepherds worry about mines and snipers. Though the villagers in the mountainous If life in the villages is hard, it is not easy, border area of Armenia and Azerbaijan either, to move between them or out of People are reluctant to move away. But are used to adversity, it is clear that the them. In many areas, and on both sides, many also say that they struggle to see increase of military action has made life villagers describe movement as hazardous a viable future under the circumstances. hard for them. and frightening. There were several reports Some young people highlight that border of wounded people not being able to get villages are not an environment in which In the worst weeks of 2014, primarily in to the hospital as the road out of their one can get married and raise a family. August, villagers reported that essentially village was under fire. they were living under siege. People on “I was on my way home together with both sides recounted spending time in “After sunset the road can be hit by my daughter-in-law and grandson [...] communal shelters, often improvised Armenian bullets and shells at any and once we passed the village of spaces. Similarly, people on both sides moment. Driving with headlights on Farahli the shooting began. Actually reported seeking refuge in their basements, at that time is simple suicide. There is we got stuck, unable either to get or on occasions leaving their houses no other way but to drive in complete back or move forward, and we spent altogether if they were too exposed. darkness.” six hours hiding right at the entrance Even households not directly exposed 35-year-old man, Jafarli to the village. It was only after the to shooting had their lives impacted, as shelling ended that we were able to Life has also become particularly electricity lines were hit or gas cut off to get home.” tough because people struggle to feed reduce the risk of fire. themselves. The overwhelming majority Pensioner, Gushchu-Airym On both sides, many houses were damaged. of residents on both sides are farmers. Respondents on both sides pointed to a In the worst-affected communities, more Farming had already been difficult in this significant increase in medical problems, than half of homes were damaged. mostly mountainous area, and has now which they believe is a result of the Authorities on both sides set up various been made even more difficult by the more stressful conditions. Though people compensation mechanisms. Yet these increase in hostilities. Both sides reported emphasise that they do want to stay for mechanisms create their own challenges. In being targeted, in 2014, while out farming. both personal and patriotic reasons, there some communities people felt insufficiently In more exposed communities people could is also a perceptible trickle of migration out compensated. In others, materials for not harvest at all, or only at night. from the communities, towards places that repairs are delivered but inhabitants are offer more security and more opportunity. “We could not work this summer in left to fix their own houses, which is hard the gardens and fields outside, it was Support from the central government, such for more marginalised families, including too dangerous because of shootings, as compensation for damaged property, those where men of working age have we just cultivated the land near our some tax privileges and cost-reductions, is migrated, or when more specialised repairs houses.” designed to keep the border communities are required. Woman from Nerkin Karmiraghbyur in place as ‘guardians of the border’ or the “Not a single house is left intact ‘first line of defence’, as some villagers have Irrigation is an additional concern. near the Armenian positions. Roofs, put it. Yet 2014 also illustrated how little Azerbaijani communities, being windows – everything is hit by advantage either side is gaining over the downstream from Armenia, highlight that Armenian fire. Power lines are often other in such an escalation. The accounts their fields are parched. To the extent that damaged, causing outages that may from either side are nearly interchangeable. water flows down from the Armenian side, last for days. Sometimes the village Both sides have much to gain from Azerbaijani communities fear chemical is simply impossible to reach. It’s just exploring a broad number of measures to pollution from upstream factories. Yet like a real war…” rein in any future escalation. Armenian farmers, too, mention that 57-year-old school teacher, Alibeyli irrigation is one of their prime concerns. KEY RECOMMENDATION The damage to communal buildings, such “Whenever they see a tractor or n Compensation, additional donations as schools and kindergartens, feeds worries another machine working in the field, and privileges are a poor substitute for about the well-being of children, reported they start firing.” decreasing hostilities, so that people as the preeminent concern on both sides. Man in Chinari can continue to live, farm, raise their Parents are terrified that their children may children, and believe in the future in their be killed by a stray bullet or shell. They Communities on both the Armenian and communities. are also worried that their children cannot Azerbaijani sides, already struggling on a AFTER THE 2014 ESCALATION: THE FRONT LINE BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN

Confidence-building measures could make a major difference

Practical reciprocal measures could Again, this seems to be a shared interest A further area of potential arrangements improve lives and build confidence, and thus a measure that would yield direct could safe access to cemeteries and free step-by-step. tangible benefit to communities in Armenia movement during religious occasions. and Azerbaijan, as long as a mutually Re-establishing an understanding that Given the experience of 2014, all sides agreed withdrawal of snipers from the front certain areas are safe would help to rebuild may want to explore concrete measures to line remains elusive. confidence, and reassure local residents. address the needs of their communities, and also to build confidence more “Every time they go to school we Overall, concrete measures would improve generally. Confidence-building measures feel nervous and afraid. Sometimes the lives of the communities and avoid an (CBMs) have previously been suggested, I think that it’s not a good place for ongoing spiral of escalation. They would and their value may be even more the youth to live. But leaving is not save both sides much effort and cost, as apparent to both sides at this point. Border an option – it’s their home, their well as human suffering. One potential communities would benefit greatly and property.” lesson of 2014 is that concrete CBMs authorities on both sides would be relieved, Woman, pensioner, Jafarli arguably are in the practical interest of at least in part, of having to deal with the both sides. This has not necessarily been consequences, costs and additional risks of Both sides may also want to explore clear previously, as sides found they had ongoing hostilities. arrangements for particular situations, become used to the previous status quo. especially around farming. Arrangements “The kindergarten is not a safe place, could be short-term, put into place for International actors are best placed to but our houses are not safe either.” specific occasions and in specific locations, promote such practical arrangements, and Woman from Chinari to make it possible for communities to earn to undertake first steps. Given that CBMs, in a context of escalation, are typically Based on what the communities say, the a living. Such CBMs likely would be most viewed with suspicion, early small successes safety of children could be a good first successful if they were reciprocal so that are more important than great initial focus of exploring concrete measures. the communities experience a concrete impact. The most promising avenue seems Arrangements could be made to reassure benefit. They could involve arrangements to be to focus on overwhelmingly shared children and parents that they are for the use of farming machinery, or also concerns on both sides, to concentrate safe, especially in kindergartens and for allowing irrigation. According to local locally and ensure reciprocal benefit, so schools. Both sides could explore, for residents, these are concerns of such that both sides feel they gain from the example, whether they can come to importance that local communities should arrangements. an understanding to avoid targeting be interested in seeing them addressed. kindergartens and schools. Such an “We used to have good harvests KEY RECOMMENDATION understanding could involve safe areas […] but the farming has come to a n Starting with kindergartens and schools, and safe times. standstill, as there is no water. People practical measures could increase the If such an approach were successful, one are powerless to do anything. The security of communities and build could explore extending it to certain key water shortage is gradually turning confidence, reciprocally and step-by-step. roads, or at least to making it possible to the local farmland into a scorched set up visual cover in locations in which landscape.” people currently feel exposed to snipers. Resident, Kemerli AFTER THE 2014 ESCALATION: THE FRONT LINE BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN

Engage communities to resolve their problems

Communities should take the lead in emergencies. In nearly all communities, people (and especially children) on ways increasing their own capacity to deal residents had concrete suggestions for to cope with the challenges. Armenian with the challenges they face, and potential improvements to the roads communities emphasised that more in making sure they can cope with around their villages. cultural and social events would promote potential future hostilities. the well-being of the communities, and “If the local roads were not as bad help to overcome potential feelings of People in the affected areas stress that all we would feel more secure during the marginalisation. actors should work with the communities shooting. These roads are not good to improve their situation in a number of for cars that have their lights on. Communities, as mentioned above, stressed concrete ways. These measures will help How can we bring an injured or sick that they should be closely involved in the the communities cope with the impact man to the administrative centre for implementation of measures undertaken of the conflict, whichever way the overall emergency treatment by such roads?” to support them. While not directly talking situation ultimately develops. Man, Farahli about corruption or misappropriation, many people felt that implementation was most Communities on both sides want more People highlighted that they need support likely to succeed if local people were closely employment opportunities. Some to increase their own ability to cope involved in making sure that projects highlighted their interest in a revival of with increased hostilities. Communities met their needs. People highlighted, for local small-scale factories and plants, need more and better locally available example, that some impressive buildings probably a desire widely shared throughout equipment to fight potential fires. had been put into place that brought little their countries. In the meantime, a number Residents want to be trained in how to use benefit to the communities themselves. this equipment, so that they can quickly of measures could help people deal with put out fires and prevent more damage. living in remote mountain locations, close People highlighted leaders who had been to the front line. Better roads could reduce successful in mobilising support for their Similarly, people on both sides said that the cost of bringing items from stores community, as well as the community itself. medical services in border communities and markets in regional towns. Small Conversely, there was significant disdain, should be expanded and that citizens business owners on both sides said that again on both sides, about some local should be trained in first aid. it is very difficult to obtain loans, which leaders that turned up in brief media stunts Several communities highlighted that means that they cannot expand their after shooting incidents, but otherwise they need better shelters, with reasonable selection and have to offer few goods at had done little to address local needs. amenities such as bathrooms that allow high prices. There appear to be a number Similarly, there was cynicism about regional longer stays in case of ongoing shelling. of smaller programmes to address this nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) issue. Expanding such programmes could and international organisations, with their “It is not safe to use pastures, so make it easier for people to get access to in-and-out visits and limited local impact. there is no point in keeping cattle.” affordable goods and services, locally. Villager, Yet next to considerable apathy, on both When the services do become available, sides of the front line, there also was the People also require support in order to citizens appreciate them. The Internet is feeling that communities were most likely secure their own livelihoods. Irrigation, as beginning to play a role, though local to cope and do well, in these adverse highlighted above, is a key topic in many authorities remain most important for circumstances, if they mobilised themselves communities. Greenhouses are seen as aggregating and disseminating information and helped each other. a promising approach in communities to reassure local citizens. Communities in that can only farm small plots because of Azerbaijan particularly expressed this desire KEY RECOMMENDATION regular shooting. for reliable information. n Communities should take the lead, and receive help in taking the lead, to increase “Our village is famous for its blood “In our village the government their own ability to cope with their oranges. This year I did not try even provides people with building situation and potential future adversity. one fruit, we could not take care of materials to repair their damaged the trees.” homes. But is there any point in Woman, Nerkin Karmiraghbyur repairing a house located within the firing range from Armenian positions? Communities on both sides agreed that No sooner the situation changes than safer roads would improve their lives. They the gunfire will renew.” suggested walls, trenches, visual shelters, or alternative routes to increase security. Man, pensioner, Alibeyli Improving the quality of existing roads On both sides, citizens pointed out that would make it easier for villagers to reach there is a need for more psychological towns, as well as for medical treatment in services, especially in schools, to help AFTER THE 2014 ESCALATION: THE FRONT LINE BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN

Methodology

The perspectives and ideas in this policy brief are drawn from a series of individual and group interviews held between October–December 2014 in a number of locations close to the international border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In Azerbaijan, these comprised ten vulnerable rural communities in the Gazakh, Tovuz and Agstafa districts. In Armenia, research focused on nine communities in the Tavush region. In both countries, researchers spoke to a broad representation of households. Researchers used established qualitative methods of social research, to allow for active participation. Acknowledgements The methodology specifically sought the local perspectives, This policy brief was written by Hans Gutbrod drawing on a more detailed report which were summarised and titled Towards a secure future: community voices in border areas of Armenia and analysed by the teams. Altogether Azerbaijan, produced by Saferworld as part of the “Promoting community-focused 180 people participated in formal responses to insecurity and conflict in border areas of Armenia and Azerbaijan” group interviews. Researchers project funded by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The research conducted additional expert and was conducted by teams at the Society of Humanitarian Research (SHR) and at informal individual interviews in the the Civil Society Institute. This document has been produced with the financial communities they studied. assistance of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The accompanying report, Towards About Saferworld a secure future: community voices in border areas of Armenia and Saferworld is an independent international organisation working to prevent Azerbaijan, details the perspectives violent conflict and build safer lives. We work with local people affected by from the Armenian and Azerbaijani conflict to improve their safety and sense of security, and conduct wider research side, and also provides extensive and analysis. We use this evidence and learning to improve local, national and recommendations made by the international policies and practices that can help build lasting peace. Our priority communities on how their situation is people – we believe that everyone should be able to lead peaceful, fulfilling could be improved. lives, free from insecurity and violent conflict. We are a not-for-profit organisation that works in over 20 countries and Additionally, this report builds on territories across , and . previous research undertaken by Saferworld in this area, published in a Saferworld policy brief Nagorny Karabakh conflict The Grayston Centre 28 Charles Square and frontline areas (May 2012), N1 6HT · UK and a longer report, Putting people Phone: +44 (0)20 7324 4646 first: Reducing front-line tensions in Fax: +44 (0)20 7324 4647 Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nagorny Email: [email protected] Karabakh. Web: www.saferworld.org.uk Registered charity no. 1043843 · A company limited by guarantee no. 3015948

photo credits · cover Outskirts of the Azerbaijani village of in Tovuz district, overlooking the area where Armenian and Azerbaijani militaries face each other, September 2014. © tabib huseynov · inside A man holding a bullet from a shooting, , Armenia, November 2014. © artak kirakosyan · Protective wall is being built in front of a school in the village of Agdam, Azerbaijan, November 2014. © avaz hasanov back cover A window shattered by the bullet, which hit the house of a village resident in Aygepar, Armenia, November 2014. © artak kirakosyan