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2014 SABR Analytics Conference 3 Welcome! Welcome to the third annual SABR Analytics Conference. In 2014, we have invited another top group of speakers from throughout the baseball industry, and we have also added new panels such as Medical Analysis and Injury Prevention; Which Numbers Athletes Love, Which Numbers Athletes Hate; The International Baseball Landscape; Prospect Analysis and Evaluation; Telling Stories in the Age of Sabermetrics; and SABR Defensive Index. Each year, the top minds of the baseball analytic community gather to discuss, debate and share insightful ways to analyze and examine the great game of baseball. The event is a natural for SABR. The Society for American Baseball Research has a long and storied history with baseball statistical analysis, evidenced by the link between our name and sabermetrics. While SABR is a multi-faceted organization involved in virtually every aspect of baseball, we have taken a major step to re-connect with our beginnings by producing and hosting our third annual SABR Analytics Conference. This year’s conference will be held from Thursday, March 13 through Saturday, March 15 at the Hyatt Regency Phoenix in downtown Phoenix. The schedule will consist of a combination of Guest Speakers, Panels and Research Presentations — plus the Diamond Dollars Case Competition. In this competition, graduate and undergraduate students will analyze and present a real baseball operations decision. SABR’s long history in this area of baseball research, coupled with our mission of advancing the understanding and the knowledge of baseball, makes us the perfect choice to coordinate and host such an important baseball industry event. Once again, we want to thank all of our attendees and our sponsors, which include Major League Baseball, ESPN, Bloomberg Sports, Sportvision, Rawlings, Baseball Info Solutions, Topps, SmartKage, YarcData, Baseball-Reference.com, and the following MLB teams: the Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers. You can visit SABR.org/analytics during and after the conference for complete coverage of the 2014 SABR Analytics Conference, including stories and highlights, video and audio clips, and photo galleries. Vince Gennaro, SABR President s Marc Appleman, SABR Executive Director sabr.org/analytics 4 2014 SABR Analytics Conference Events Schedule THURSDAY, MARCH 13 Thursday’s programming will be held at the Hyatt Regency Phoenix, 122 N. 2nd St., Phoenix, AZ 85004. s 8:00 a.m.-7:00 p.m.: Registration open at Hyatt Regency Phoenix You can pick up your SABR Analytics Conference registration packet in the Regency Ballroom Foyer (1st floor) of the Hyatt Regency Phoenix. s 8:30 a.m.-1:00 p.m.: Diamond Dollars Case Competition, presented by YarcData (Remington, Cassidy, Russell and Phoenix Ballrooms, 2nd floor) Presentations of the Diamond Dollars Case Competition. Introduction at 8:30 a.m. by SABR President Vince Gennaro in the Phoenix Ballroom, 2nd floor. See page 22 for the full presentation schedule. s 1:45-2:00 p.m.: Opening Remarks: Vince Gennaro/Marc Appleman (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) SABR President Vince Gennaro and Executive Director Marc Appleman welcome attendees to the 2014 SABR Analytics Conference. s 2:00-3:00 p.m.: Panel: Medical Analysis and Injury Prevention (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Dr. Stan Conte, Los Angeles Dodgers; Dr. Glenn Fleisig, American Sports Medicine Institute; Chris Marinak, Major League Baseball. Moderator Buster Olney, ESPN.com. s 3:00-3:15 p.m.: SABR Analytics Conference Research Award presentation: Historical Analysis/Commentary (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) The winner of a 2014 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award will be announced and presented. s 3:15-4:00 p.m.: RP1— Vince Gennaro, “An In Depth Study of Team Chemistry: A Progress Report” (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) s 3:15-4:00 p.m.: RP2—TBA (Phoenix Ballroom, 2nd floor) s 4:30-5:30 p.m.: Panel: Which Numbers Athletes Love, Which Numbers Athletes Hate (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Aaron Boone, ESPN; Eduardo Perez, ESPN; Manny Acta, ESPN; Kirk Goldsberry, Grantland.com. Moderator: John Walsh, ESPN. s 5:30-6:30 p.m.: Diamond Dollars Case Competition, presented by YarcData (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Final presentation of the Diamond Dollars Case Competition. Note: Schedule change! sabr.org/analytics 2014 SABR Analytics Conference 5 Events Schedule s 6:30-7:30 p.m.: Panel: Analytics from the Players’ View (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Brandon McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks; Brian Bannister, former major league pitcher. Moderator: Jon Sciambi, ESPN. s 7:30-10:00 p.m.: Welcome/Networking Reception with Baseball Industry Network (Garden Terrace, 3rd floor) The welcome reception will be an opportunity for conference attendees to meet some of our panelists, speakers, writers and others working throughout the baseball industry. Cash bar. FRIDAY, MARCH 14 Friday’s programming will be held at the Hyatt Regency Phoenix, 122 N. 2nd St., Phoenix, AZ 85004. s 8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m.: Registration open at Hyatt Regency Phoenix s 8:30-9:45 a.m.: Panel: Decision-Making in the Front Office (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Jack Zduriencik, Seattle Mariners; Bill Geivett, Colorado Rockies; Bobby Evans, San Francisco Giants. Moderator: Ken Rosenthal, MLB Network/FoxSports.com. s 10:00-10:45 a.m.: One on One: Mark Attanasio (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Mark Attanasio, Chairman and Principal Owner, Milwaukee Brewers. Moderator: Ken Rosenthal, MLB Network/FoxSports.com. s 11:30 a.m.-12:15 p.m.: RP3— Graham Goldbeck, “An Introduction to In-Game Biomechanics Data” (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) s 11:30 a.m.-12:15 p.m.: RP4— Kevin Tenenbaum and Dave Allen, “Scouting Bayes: A Bayesian Forecast with Scouting Priors” (Phoenix Ballroom, 2nd floor) s 12:30-1:30 p.m.: Lunch (Atrium, 2nd floor) Analytics Conference registration includes lunch. s 1:45-2:30 p.m.: Panel: Inside the SABR Defensive Index (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Vince Gennaro, SABR; Sean Forman, Sports Reference LLC; John Dewan, Baseball Info Solutions; Kurt Hunzeker, Rawlings. Moderator: Jon Sciambi, ESPN. sabr.org/analytics 6 2014 SABR Analytics Conference Events Schedule s 2:45-3:00 p.m.: SABR Analytics Conference Research Award presentation: Contemporary Commentary (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) The winner of a 2014 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award will be announced and presented. s 3:00-3:45 p.m.: RP5— Ben Jedlovec, “The Anatomy of a Stolen Base” (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) s 3:00-3:45 p.m.: RP6— Jeff Zimmerman, “Using PITCHf/x Data to Help Determine Pitcher Injury Risk” (Phoenix Ballroom, 2nd floor) s 4:00-5:00 p.m.: Panel: Clubhouse Confidential (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Dave Cameron, FanGraphs; Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus; Rob Neyer, FoxSports.com; Vince Gennaro, SABR. Saturday, March 15 Saturday’s programming will be held at the Hyatt Regency Phoenix, 122 N. 2nd St., Phoenix, AZ 85004. s 8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m.: Registration open at Hyatt Regency Phoenix s 8:00-8:30 a.m.: Baseball-Reference.com Q&A (Phoenix Ballroom, 2nd floor) Baseball-Reference.com founder Sean Forman will be on hand to answer questions and provide tips on getting the most out of his website and its research tools. s 8:30-9:45 a.m.: Panel: How Fans Consume Baseball in the Digital Age (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) A discussion of how baseball is viewed through the eyes of today’s young fans. Speakers: Hunter Gilbertson, NYU; Jake Sotir, Elon University; Lewie Pollis, Brown University; Olivia Wyatt, Tufts University. Moderator: Vince Gennaro, SABR. s 10:00-11:00 a.m.: Panel: The International Baseball Landscape (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Leonte Landino, ESPN Deportes; Tyrone Brooks, Pittsburgh Pirates; Josh Rawitch, Arizona Diamondbacks. Moderator: Rob Neyer, FoxSports.com. s 11:00-11:45 a.m.: RP7— Bill Petti, “Quantifying and Understanding the Consistency of Pitchers” (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) s 11:00-11:45 a.m.: RP8—Lewie Pollis, “If You Build It: Rethinking the Market for Front Office Personnel” (Phoenix Ballroom, 2nd floor) sabr.org/analytics 2014 SABR Analytics Conference 7 Events Schedule s 11:45 a.m.-12:00 p.m.: SABR Analytics Conference Research Award presentation: Contemporary Analysis (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) The winner of a 2014 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award will be announced and presented. s 12:00-1:00 p.m.: Lunch (Atrium, 2nd floor) Analytics Conference registration includes lunch. s 1:15-2:15 p.m.: Panel: Prospect Analysis and Evaluation (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Jim Callis, MLB.com; Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com; Bernie Pleskoff, MLB.com. Moderator: Barry M. Bloom, MLB.com. s 2:30-3:30 p.m.: Panel: Telling Stories in the Age of Sabermetrics (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Howard Megdal, Sports on Earth; Emma Span, Sports on Earth; Mike Tanier, Sports on Earth. Moderator: Steve Madden, Sports on Earth. s 3:30-4:15 p.m.: Bloomberg Sports—Next Generation of Analytics (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) Daniel Cohen, Bloomberg Sports; Kyle Evans, Chicago Cubs. Note: Schedule change! s 4:15-4:30 p.m.: Conference wrap-up (Regency Ballroom A/B, 1st floor) SABR President Vince Gennaro and Executive Director Marc Appleman. Please note: All speakers and panelists are subject to change due to availability. sabr.org/analytics 8 2014 SABR Analytics Conference Speakers/Panelists Medical Analysis and Injury Prevention: This panel will discuss how Major League Baseball and its teams are working to better diagnose, track and prevent injuries in the future.