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The Darpa Model for Transformative Technologies B The DARPA Model for Transformative ONVILLIAN Technologies The DARPA Model Perspectives on the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency ,V for Transformative AN Technologies EDITED BY WILLIAM B. BONVILLIAN,RICHARD VAN ATTA AND A ATRICK INDHAM P W TTA Perspectives on the U.S. Defense ,W Advanced Research Projects Agency The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has played a remarkable role in the crea�on new transforma�ve technologies, revolu�onizing defense with stealth INDHAM drones and precision-guided muni�ons, and transforming civilian life with portable GPS receivers, voice-recogni�on so�ware, self-driving cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and, most famously, the ARPANET and its successor, the Internet. Other parts of the U.S. Government and some foreign governments have tried to apply the ( ‘DARPA model’ to help develop valuable new technologies. But how and why has DARPA EDS succeeded? Which features of its opera�on and environment contribute to this success? EDITED BY WILLIAM B. BONVILLIAN, .) And what lessons does its experience offer for other U.S. agencies and other governments ICHARD AN TTA AND that want to develop and demonstrate their own ‘transforma�ve technologies’? R V A This book is a remarkable collec�on of leading academic research on DARPA from a wide PATRICK WINDHAM range of perspec�ves, combining to chart an important story from the Agency’s founding FOR in the wake of Sputnik, to the current a�empts to adapt it to use by other federal agencies. FOR Informa�ve and insigh�ul, this guide is essen�al reading for poli�cal and policy leaders, as well as researchers and students interested in understanding the success of this agency T RANSFORMATIVE T and the lessons it offers to others. T HE As with all Open Book publica�ons, this en�re book is available to read for free on the DARPA M publisher’s website. Printed and digital edi�ons, together with supplementary digital material, can also be found at www.openbookpublishers.com Cover illustration and design by Anna Gatti T ECHNOLOGIES ODEL book eebook and OA edi�ons also available OPEN ACCESS www.openbookpublishers.com OBP To access digital resources including: blog posts videos online appendices and to purchase copies of this book in: hardback paperback ebook editions Go to: https://www.openbookpublishers.com/product/1079 Open Book Publishers is a non-profit independent initiative. We rely on sales and donations to continue publishing high-quality academic works. THE DARPA MODEL FOR TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGIES The DARPA Model for Transformative Technologies Perspectives on the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Edited by William B. Bonvillian, Richard Van Atta, and Patrick Windham https://www.openbookpublishers.com © 2019 William B. Bonvillian, Richard Van Atta, and Patrick Windham. Copyright of individual chapters is maintained by the chapters’ authors. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs license (CC BY-NC-ND). This license allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the text; to adapt the text and to make commercial use of the text providing attribution is made to the authors (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Attribution should include the following information: William B. Bonvillian, Richard Van Atta, and Patrick Windham (eds.), The DARPA Model for Transformative Technologies Perspectives on the U.S.: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. Cambridge, UK: Open Book Publishers, 2019, https://doi.org/10.11647/OBP.0184 In order to access detailed and updated information on the license, please visit, https:// doi.org/10.11647/OBP.0184#copyright Further details about CC BY-NC-ND licenses are available at, https://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ All external links were active at the time of publication unless otherwise stated and have been archived via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine at https://archive.org/web Updated digital material and resources associated with this volume are available at https://doi.org/10.11647/OBP.0184#resources Every effort has been made to identify and contact copyright holders and any omission or error will be corrected if notification is made to the publisher. ISBN Paperback: 978-1-78374-791-7 ISBN Hardback: 978-1-78374-792-4 ISBN Digital (PDF): 978-1-78374-793-1 ISBN Digital ebook (epub): 978-1-78374-794-8 ISBN Digital ebook (mobi): 978-1-78374-795-5 ISBN XML: 978-1-78374-796-2 DOI: 10.11647/OBP.0184 Cover design: Anna Gatti. Contents Notes on Contributors xi Acknowledgements xix 1. Introduction: DARPA—The Innovation Icon 1 Patrick Windham and Richard Van Atta DARPA’s Historical Mission and Organization 2 DARPA’s Organization and Budget 9 Important Features of the DARPA Model 12 The Remainder of this Book 24 References 25 PART I: PERSPECTIVES ON DARPA 27 2. Fifty Years of Innovation and Discovery 29 Richard Van Atta The “DARPA Model” 30 DARPA’s Origins: Strategic Challenges ~1958 31 DARPA Roles 37 Key Elements of DARPA’s Success 37 Tension Between DARPA Roles 39 DARPA’s Successes 39 DARPA’s Role in Creating a Revolution in Military Affairs 41 Sustaining the DARPA Vision 42 References 43 vi The DARPA Model for Transformative Technologies 3. NSF and DARPA as Models for Research Funding: An 45 Institutional Analysis Michael J. Piore, Phech Colatat, and Elisabeth Beck Reynolds I. Methodology and Research Approach 47 II. Basic Findings 48 III. Interpretation 67 Conclusions 72 References 75 4. The Connected Science Model for Innovation—The 77 DARPA Model William B. Bonvillian Introduction: Fundamentals of Defense Technology 77 Development Innovation Systems at the Personal Level: Great Groups 88 DARPA as a Unique Model—Combining Institutional 93 Connectedness and Great Groups Elements of the DARPA Model 98 Summary 112 References 113 5. The Value of Vision in Radical Technological Innovation 119 Tamara L. Carleton The Value of Vision in Radical Technological Innovation 119 Conclusion 135 References 136 6. ARPA Does Windows: The Defense Underpinning of the 145 PC Revolution Glenn R. Fong Introduction 145 PARC and HCI 147 Alto’s Offspring 151 The Rest of the Story 158 Xerox’s ARPA Brats 164 Windows on the Future 171 Conclusions 173 References 175 Contents vii 7. Rethinking the Role of the State in Technology 179 Development: DARPA and the Case for Embedded Network Governance Erica R. H. Fuchs 1. Introduction 179 2. The Developmental Network State 183 3. The Changing Faces of DARPA 189 4. Methods 198 5. Results and Discussion 200 6. Discussion: the DARPA Program Manager—Embedded 219 Network Agent 7. Conclusions 222 Acknowledgements 223 References 224 8. DARPA’s Process for Creating New Programs 229 David W. Cheney and Richard Van Atta Introduction 229 General Framework and Typical Patterns of Program 233 Development Case Studies of the Development of DARPA Programs 236 Have Blue (Stealth) 237 Assault Breaker (Standoff Precision Strike) 244 Amber/Predator (High Altitude Long Endurance UAVs) 249 Optoelectronics Program 256 High Definition Systems 262 Spintronics (Quantum Computing) 268 Personalized Assistant that Learns (PAL) 272 Topological Data Analysis 276 Revolutionizing Prosthetics 279 Findings, Conclusions, and Key Observations 282 Concluding Thoughts 286 References 287 9. Some Questions about the DARPA Model 289 Patrick Windham References 297 viii The DARPA Model for Transformative Technologies PART II: THE ROLE OF DARPA PROGRAM MANAGERS 301 10. DARPA—Enabling Technical Innovation 303 Jinendra Ranka The Role of DARPA 303 DARPA and Innovation? 304 Developing and Running DARPA Programs 306 Important Questions to Ask 310 Timelines 311 Additional Thoughts on Why DARPA is Needed 312 A Flexible and Supportive Agency 314 11. Program Management at DARPA: A Personal Perspective 315 Larry Jackel Getting New Programs Approved 316 Soliciting and Reviewing Proposals 316 Managing Programs 317 Independence, Responsibility, and Accomplishments 318 PART III: APPLYING THE DARPA MODEL IN OTHER 321 SITUATIONS 12. Lessons from DARPA for Innovating in Defense Legacy 323 Sectors William B. Bonvillian Conclusion: Innovation in the Defense Legacy Sector 354 References 357 13. ARPA-E and DARPA: Applying the DARPA Model to 361 Energy Innovation William B. Bonvillian and Richard Van Atta Overview 361 I. The DARPA Model 365 II. ARPA-E—A New R&D Model for the Department of 383 Energy III. The Remaining Technology Implementation Challenge 409 for DARPA and ARPA-E IV. Conclusion—Brief Summary of Key Points 426 References 428 Contents ix 14. IARPA: A Modified DARPA Innovation Model 435 William B. Bonvillian The DARPA Model in the Context of Innovation Policy 436 The IARPA Model 441 Two Challenges to DARPA and its Clones— 447 Manufacturing and Scaling up Startups Conclusion 449 References 450 15. Does NIH need a DARPA? 453 Robert Cook-Deegan Biomedical Success 455 PART IV: CONCLUSIONS 461 16. Lessons from DARPA’s Experience 463 Richard Van Atta, Patrick Windham and William B. Bonvillian Important Features 464 Creating New Technical Communities 466 DARPA and the Future 467 Further Reading 471 DARPA Documents 471 General Histories of DARPA 471 Histories of DARPA’s Contributions to Information 472 Technology List of Illustrations and Tables 473 Index 475 Notes on Contributors William B. Bonvillian is a Lecturer at MIT, and Senior Director at MIT’s Office of Digital Learning, leading a project on workforce education. From 2006 until 2017, he was Director of MIT’s Washington Office, supporting MIT’s historic role in science policy. He teaches courses on innovation systems at MIT and is coauthor of three books on innovation, Advanced Manufacturing: The New American Innovation Policies (2018), Technological Innovation in Legacy Sectors (2015), and Structuring an Energy Technology Revolution (2009), as well as numerous articles. Previously he worked for over fifteen years on innovation issues as a senior advisor in the U.S.
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