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Why and How to Protect Religious Freedom

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Why and How to Protect Religious Freedom eports International Institute for Religious Freedom RInternationales Institut für Religionsfreiheit Institut International pour la Liberté Religieuse Thomas Schirrmacher Plausibility test of PEW reports on restrictions of religion Cross-sectional country comparison for the years 2007 to 2014 (translated by Christof Sauer) Occassional journal with special reports, research projects, reprints and documentation IIRF Reports 2016/2 Reports The institute operates under the oversight of the World Evangelical Alliance and is registered as a company in Guernsey with its registered office at PO Box 265, Suite 6, Borough House, Rue du Pré, Saint Peter Port, Guernsey, Channel Islands, GY1 3QU. The Colombo Bureau is registered with the Asia Evangelical Alliance, Sri Lanka. The Cape Town Bureau is registered as ‘IIRF Cape Town Bureau’ in South Africa. The Bonn Bureau is registered under ProMundis e. V. (Bonn, 20 AR 197/95), President: Prof. Dr. Thomas Schirrmacher, Vice-president: Dr. Susanne Lux. Friedrichstr. 38 PO Box 1336 32, Ebenezer Place www.iirf.eu 2nd Floor Sun Valley 7985 Dehiwela [email protected] 53111 Bonn Cape Town (Colombo) [email protected] Germany South Africa Sri Lanka [email protected] Board of Supervisors • Prof. Dr. Janet Epp Buckingham • Chairman: Dr. Paul C. Murdoch (on behalf (Canada): Human rights law of the German Evangelical Alliance) • Prof. Dr. Lovell Fernandez (South • John Langlois (on behalf of the World Evangelical Alliance) Africa): Transitional justice • Julia Doxat-Purser (on behalf of the • Prof. Dr. Ken Gnanakan (India): Universities, Social justice European Evangelical Alliance) • Dr. Rosalee Velosso Ewell (Brazil): Consultations • Ex officio: Godfrey Yogarajah (Sri Lanka, • Prof. Dr. Thomas Johnson(Czech Religious Liberty Commission) Republic): Natural law ethics • Max Klingberg (Germany): Human rights organizations Executives • Drs. Behnan Konutgan (Turkey): Orthodox Churches • Ihsan Yinal Özbek (Turkey): • Director: Prof. Dr. Dr. Thomas Schirrmacher (Germany) Turkish Islam • Co-Director: Prof. Dr. Christof Sauer (South Africa) • Dr. Paul Marshall (USA): Religious liberty research, Islam • Director Colombo office: Roshini Wickremesinhe, LLB • Patson Netha (Zimbabwe): Africa • CFO: Manfred Feldmann (Germany) • Prof. Glenn Penner† (Canada) • Legal counsel: Martin Schweiger (Singapore) • Prof. Dr. Bernhard J. G. Reitsma(Netherlands): • Representative to UN, OSCE, EU: Arie Islam and Christianity de Pater (Netherlands) • Prof. Dr. Rainer Rothfu§ (Germany): Geography • Senior research writer: Fernando Perez (India) • Prof. Dr. Christine Schirrmacher (Germany): Islamic Sharia • Research Coordinator: • Dr. Benyamin Intan (Indonesia): Peacebuilding Joseph Yakubu (Nigeria) • Prof. Dr. Donald L. Stults (USA): Training • Public relations: Ron Kubsch (Germany) • Anneta Vyssotskaia (Russia): Central and Eastern Europe • Yoshiaki Yui (Japan): Church and state Academic Board with areas of research • Honorary Chairman: Prof. Dr. Dr. John Warwick Montgomery (France) Impressum International Institute for Religious Freedom V.i.S.d.P Prof. Dr. Dr. Thomas Schirrmacher Internationales Institut für Religionsfreiheit Friedrichstr. 38, 53111 Bonn, Germany Institut International pour la Liberté Religieuse Bank account: of the World Evangelical Alliance EKK (Ev. Kreditgenossenschaft Kassel eG) account number: 3 690 334, BLZ 520 604 10 Occassional journal with special reports, research projects, Reference: IRF 1000 reprints and documentation published by International Codes (IBAN): DE02520604100003690334 International Bank Code (BIC): GENODEFIEKI International Donations by Credit Card: http://iirfct.givengain.org www.iirf.eu/iirfreports VKW Culture and Science Publ. R IIRF Reports 2016/2 Thomas Schirrmacher Plausibility test of PEW reports on restrictions of religion Cross-sectional country comparison for the years 2007 to 2014 (translated by Christof Sauer) Table of Contents Introductory notes 5 Reports, abbreviations, scores 5 Testing the scores on Germany 6 Testing other countries 6 Examination of the sources (18 reports) 7 Comments on the 17 reports used as sources by PEW (latest report) 8 Issues published / Veröffentlichte Ausgaben / Oeuvres publiés 9 4 IIRF Reports 2016/2 This is a plausibility test of the “Restriction of surveys and research on religion, etc., in many Religion” Reports of the PEW Forum of Religion countries.] The results emanate exclusively from and Public Life published 2009–2016 encoding other reports. Again, among those re- ports there is none which results from on-site research. Additionally, all 18 reports are highly Introductory notes dependent upon each other. Between 2009 and 2016, the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life pub- lished five global reports on religious freedom. Reports, abbreviations, scores They include comprehensive rankings, the de- http://www.pewforum.org/files/2016/06/Restric- velopment of which were compared in different tions2016-Full-Report-FINAL.pdf variations. http://www.pewforum.org/2016/06/23/trends-in- A plausibility assessment at an early stage is global-restrictions-on-religion/ standard procedure regarding all statistics and http://www.pewforum.org/files/2014/01/Restric- scientific research outcomes. It has the potential tionsV-full-report.pdf to uncover weaknesses in investigations early on http://www.pewforum.org/2014/01/14/religious- without having to say where the implausible re- hostilities-reach-six-year-high/ sults stem from. http://www.pewforum.org/files/2013/06/Restric- The categorization of individual countries in the tionsIV-web.pdf PEW reports did not appear very plausible to me. http://www.pewforum.org/2013/06/20/arab- Countries with rather liberal religious freedom spring-restrictions-on-religion-findings/ received very poor evaluations, and countries with serious restrictions received positive ratings. http://www.pewforum.org/files/2012/09/ For instance, in 2013 Germany received a Social RisingTideofRestrictions-fullreport.pdf Hostilities Index (SHI) rating of 4.5, worse than http://www.pewforum.org/2012/09/20/rising-ti- Saudi Arabia’s rating of 3.6. Additionally, a num- de-of-restrictions-on-religion-findings/ ber of countries fluctuated significantly over the http://www.pewforum.org/files/2011/08/Rising- six years examined, during which, from my point Restrictions-web.pdf of view, there were no notable changes standing http://www.pewforum.org/2011/08/09/rising-re- out regarding the situation. Furthermore, there strictions-on-religion2/ were significant differences in the classification of countries when compared to the results of http://www.pewforum.org/files/2009/12/restric- other researchers. tions-fullreport1.pdf http://www.pewforum.org/2009/12/17/global-re- I thus began to compare countries by looking at strictions-on-religion/ a number of countries over time. I then looked at countries reported on for a single year period, PEW report 2009 = status mid-2007 and then over time, and compared countries with PEW 2011 = mid-2009 each other. The outcome of this sample examina- PEW 2012 = mid-2010 tion can be found below and raises considerable doubts regarding the reliability of the results. PEW 2013 = end 2011 One possible reason for such results could lie in PEW 2014 = end 2012 the fact that the data base for the reports is very PEW 2015 = end 2013 thin. There is actually no on-site research under- lying the PEW religious freedom reports. Likewi- PEW 2016 = end 2014 se, there is no elaboration by experts within the All dates given below refer to the status date and prospective countries or by external experts on not to the years in which the PEW reports were those countries. [That is unusual since the Pew published. Foundation otherwise conducts comprehensive IIRF Reports 2016/2 – Thomas Schirrmacher, Plausibility test of PEW reports on restrictions of religion 5 GRI = Government Restrictions [on Religion] In- Comparison between Germany and the geo- dex graphical area of Europe on the 2013 GRI: Only three countries scored worse than Germa- SHI = Social Hostilities Index ny: Belarus, Bulgaria, Russia. Countries scoring GRI: „Very high“ = 6.6 or higher; „High“ = 4.5 better included Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, to 6.5; „Moderate“ = 2.4 to 4.4; „Low“ = 0.0 to Georgia, Italy, Malta, Serbia, Greece, and Hun- 2.3 gary. Accordingly, Germany would place near the SHI: „Very high“ = 7.2 or higher; „High“ = 3.6 bottom in matters of governmental restrictions of to 7.1; „Moderate“ = 1.5 to 3.5; „Low“ = 0.0 to religious freedom within Europe. That is far from 1.4 reality. Testing the scores on Germany Testing other countries a) Chronological cross-section Bulgaria SHI: 2007: 2.2; 2009: 4.0; 2010: 2.2; Germany GRI scores: 2007: 3.1; 2008: 3.2; 2009: 2011: 4.7; 2012: 4.4; 2013: 3.6; 2014: 2.8. The score 3.5; 2010 4.0; 2011 3.5; 2013: 4.5; 2014: 3.4. Has constantly fluctuates, even though the situation on there really been a worsening in government re- the ground is stable. strictions on religious freedom from moderate in Indonesia GRI: 2007: 6.2; 2012: 8.3; 2013: 8.5; 2007 to high in 2013 and then back again? No. 2014: 7.9: Allegedly increasing significantly, alt- The score was already too high in 2007. In additi- hough in reality the problems are decreasing. on, there is no proof whatsoever that legal restric- Compare Iran GRI: 2007: 7.9; 2012: 8.6; 2013: tions on religious freedom have strongly increa- 8.3; 2014: 7.7. Is the situation in Indonesia as bad sed during this six-year period. as or even a little worse than in Iran? I think that Germany SHI scores: 2007: 2.1; 2008: 2.5; 2009: is nonsensical. 3.3; 2010: 5.3; 2011: 5.0; 2013: 4.3; 2014: 2.5. This Mexico GRI: 2007=2008: 4.7; 2009: 4.2; 2010: 3.5; set of scores suggests considerable fluctuation, 2011: 3.6; 2012: 3.9; 2013 3.4; 2014: 4.5; SHI: 2007: whereas in reality the situation is quite stable. 5.5; 2008: 4.7; 2009: 5.1; 2010: 3.6; 2011: 3.2; 2012: The scores for 2007 to 2009 and 2014 may be 6.7; 2013: 3.7; 2014: 4.2: Did the situation really im- considered valid, the scores for 2011 and 2013 are prove decidedly in 2013? Is a jump in the SHI score much too high.
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