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Chapter 6: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks

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Chapter 6: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks FIRST ORDER DRAFT Chapter 6 IPCC SR Ocean and Cryosphere 1 2 Chapter 6: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks 3 4 Coordinating Lead Authors: Matthew Collins (UK), Michael Sutherland (Trinidad and Tobago) 5 6 Lead Authors: Laurens Bouwer (Netherlands), So-Min Cheong (Republic of Korea), Thomas Frölicher 7 (Switzerland), Hélène Jacot Des Combes (Fiji), Roxy Mathew Koll (India), Iñigo Losada (Spain), Kathleen 8 McInnes (Australia), Beate Ratter (Germany), Evelia Rivera-Arriga (Mexico), Raden Dwi Susanto 9 (Indonesia), Didier Swingedouw (France), Lourdes Tibig (Philippines) 10 11 Contributing Authors: Pepijn Bakker (Netherlands), C. Mark Eakin (USA), Kerry Emanuel (USA), 12 Michael Grose (Australia), Stéphane Hallegatte (France), Mark Hemer (Australia), Andreas Kääb (Norway), 13 Jules Kajtar (UK), Thomas Knutson (USA), Charlotte Laufkötter (Switzerland), Roshanka Ranasinghe 14 (Netherlands), Giovanni Sgubin (Italy), Mary-Louise Timmermans (USA) 15 16 Review Editors: Amjad Abdulla (Maldives), Marcelino Hernádez González (Cuba), Carol Turley (UK) 17 18 Chapter Scientist: Jules Kajtar (UK) 19 20 Date of Draft: 20 April 2018 21 22 Notes: TSU Compiled Version 23 24 25 Table of Contents 26 27 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 3 28 6.1 .. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 6 29 6.1.1 Definitions of Principal Terms ........................................................................................................ 6 30 6.2 .. Summary of Abrupt Changes, Irreversibility and Tipping Points ..................................................... 7 31 6.3 .. Changes in Tracks, Intensity, and Frequency of Tropical and Extra-Tropical Storms and 32 Associated Wave Height .......................................................................................................................... 9 33 6.3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 9 34 6.3.2 Recent Anomalous Extreme Climate Events and their Causes ........................................................ 9 35 6.3.3 Projections of Cyclones and Wave Heights ................................................................................... 13 36 6.3.4 Impacts ........................................................................................................................................... 17 37 6.3.5 Risk Management .......................................................................................................................... 18 38 6.4 .. Marine Heat Waves and their Implications ........................................................................................ 19 39 6.4.1 Observations and Key Processes, Detection and Attribution, Projections ................................... 19 40 6.4.2 Impacts on Physical, Natural and Human Systems ....................................................................... 22 41 6.4.3 Risk Management and Adaptation, Monitoring and Early Warning Systems ............................... 24 42 6.5 .. Extreme ENSO Events and Other Modes of Interannual Climate Variability ............................... 25 43 6.5.1 Key Processes and Feedbacks, Observations, Detection and Attribution, Projections ................ 25 44 6.5.2 Impacts on Human and Natural Systems, and Confounding Factors ........................................... 27 45 6.5.3 Risk Management and Adaptation ................................................................................................. 29 46 6.6 .. Inter-Ocean Exchanges and Global Change ....................................................................................... 30 47 6.6.1 Key Processes and Feedbacks, Observations, Detection and Attribution, Projections: 48 Strengthening of the Pacific Trade Winds ..................................................................................... 30 49 6.6.2 Impacts on Natural and Human Systems ....................................................................................... 31 50 6.6.3 Risk Management and Adaptation ................................................................................................. 32 51 6.7 .. Risks of Abrupt Change in Ocean Circulation and Potential Consequences .................................. 32 52 6.7.1 Key Processes and Feedbacks, Observations, Detection and Attribution, Projections ................ 32 53 6.7.2 Impacts on Climate, Natural and Human Systems ........................................................................ 36 54 6.7.3 Risk Management and Adaptation ................................................................................................. 38 55 6.8 .. Multi-risk, Cascading Impact (or Effects), and Compound Events ................................................. 39 56 6.8.1 Concepts ........................................................................................................................................ 39 57 6.8.2 Cascading Impacts or Cumulative Effects on Ecosystems ............................................................ 39 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 6-1 Total pages: 67 FIRST ORDER DRAFT Chapter 6 IPCC SR Ocean and Cryosphere 1 6.8.3 Cascading Impacts or Cumulative Risks on Social Systems ......................................................... 39 2 6.8.4 Risk Management and Adaptation, Sustainable and Resilient Pathways ..................................... 40 3 6.8.5 Global Impact of Tipping Points ................................................................................................... 40 4 Box 6.1: Compound Events and Cascading Risks ...................................................................................... 41 5 6.9 .. Governance and Policy Options, Risk Management, Including Disaster Risk Reduction and 6 Enhancing Resilience ............................................................................................................................. 44 7 6.9.1 Decision Making for Abrupt and Extreme Changes ...................................................................... 44 8 6.9.2 Resilient Pathways and Transformative Governance ................................................................... 45 9 FAQ6.1: What risks emerge from abrupt changes in the ocean and the cryosphere? ............................ 47 10 FAQ6.2: How can risks of extreme events in the ocean and cryosphere related to climate change be 11 addressed? .............................................................................................................................................. 47 12 FAQ6.3: What are compound events and what is a cascading risk? ........................................................ 47 13 References ....................................................................................................................................................... 48 14 15 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 6-2 Total pages: 67 FIRST ORDER DRAFT Chapter 6 IPCC SR Ocean and Cryosphere 1 Executive Summary 2 3 This chapter assesses extremes and abrupt or irreversible changes in the ocean and cryosphere in a changing 4 climate, to identify regional hot spots, cascading effects, their impacts on human and natural systems, and 5 sustainable and resilient risk management strategies. 6 7 Changes in Tracks, Intensity, and Frequency of Tropical and Extra-tropical Cyclones 8 1 9 An anthropogenic influence on tropical and extra-tropical cyclones is likely . Trends in mean sea 10 surface temperature (SST) and sea level have contributed to increased precipitation, winds and 11 extreme sea level events associated with a number of observed tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. 12 Sustainable and resilient plans exist to prepare for these storms although the implementation of the 13 plans is sometimes lacking. In the future, stronger tropical cyclones are likely although they may be fewer 14 in number. The AR5 assessment of changes in both tropical and extratropical cyclones thus remains valid. 15 The unexpected nature of future storms that change track, intensity, or frequency leave governments and 16 people ill-prepared. Warnings and evacuations are not well heeded. Coordination among disaster response 17 organizations has the potential to become more chaotic. Social media as a new tool for information transfer 18 provide emotional support and real-time responses, but also generate second hand and wrong information. 19 Reductions in vulnerability from storm surges have been documented, and can continue to mitigate some 20 future impacts. {6.3, Table 6.2, Figure 6.2} 21 22 Marine Heat Waves and their Implications 23 24 Marine heat waves have very likely become more frequent in recent decades and human-induced 2 25 global warming has increased their probability of occurrence (high confidence ). Marine heat waves 26 are projected to become commonplace and will likely push marine organisms and ecosystems to the 27 limits of their resilience. Marine heat waves, defined as coherent areas of extreme warm sea surface 28 temperature that persist for days-months, have very likely become more frequent since the beginning of 29 satellite sea surface temperature observations in 1982. There is high confidence that human-induced global 30 warming has increased the probability of marine heat waves over the past few
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