World Airliner Census
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WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2016 Airbus WWORLDORLD AIRLINER AIRLINER CENSUS CENSUS 2016 WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2016 Stand up, be counted FlightGlobal’s annual World Airliner Census shows Boeing to have put its 787 troubles behind it – just as weakening widebody demand threatens to disrupt industrial harmony DAN THISDELL LONDON CSeries orders, at 364 units, amount to just 3% DATA ANALYSIS ANTOINE FAFARD of the global narrowbody backlog – although our listing does not include orders from lessors or Boeing, good news about the 787 that have yet to be assigned to an operator. has become, perhaps, sufficiently ordi- Another notable newcomer is Comac’s nary to push away memories of the ARJ21; two of the much-delayed regional jets nightmare years of the Dreamliner’s are now in service with Chengdu. But while F flight testing and entry into service. But the the Chinese airframer expects to produce 30 advanced-technology twinjet is now arguably ARJ21s annually by 2020, it has yet to receive turning into a star. As revealed by the latest production certification despite the programme annual FlightGlobal airliner census – a break- getting type certificated in December 2014. down of the world’s commercial aircraft fleet This means it has had to secure individual cer- by type and operator – the once-troubled 787 tifications for production of the regional jets. programme is racking up some seriously nice In other regional aircraft, note the 9% re- numbers. Over the past year, the type’s in-ser- duction in the active Embraer ERJ- vice fleet has increased by nearly half, to 423 135/140/145 fleet, to 553 aircraft – pushing aircraft by 20 July. And, if output carries on as the Brazilian family a place below Bombar- it has been, the 787 should, by next year, over- dier’s CRJ100/200, with 560 examples. take its stablemate, the venerable 747, as measured by its active fleet. SHRINKING A380 Other highlights of the census, as detailed A notable shift in the figures comes with the the new -8 variant to whittle the in-service on the following pages, include the recent ar- biggest aircraft of all, the A380. Year-on-year, fleet down by nearly 8%, to 515 units. The rival in the figures of the Airbus A320neo, with the in-service fleet has grown since the 2015 rate of 747 fleet shrinkage appears to be accel- 10 in service as of July: two with GoAir, five census by a short 16% to 193 aircraft – but the erating, but the type will almost certainly re- with IndiGo, two with Lufthansa and one backlog has shrunk by 15%, to just 126 air- main in the top 10 next year despite being with Pegasus. craft, including for lessors. The Jumbo jet – overtaken by the 787. Swiss opened the in-service book on Bom- the 747 – remains firmly in the global top 10 When A350 deliveries begin in earnest, that bardier’s CSeries in June. Our figures show despite retirements outpacing deliveries of type will begin a 787-style climb toward the in-service top 10 – but only then will the 747 Airliner fleet distribution Narrowbodies: order backlog drop out of that first division; without a surge market share of new orders, the A380 will remain a distant second place in the ultra-large category for 10% years to come. 25% 8% 8% 3% 5% Not that the prospects for either type look 4% 30% 3% 2% attractive. Airbus’s decision, revealed at the re- Total Total cent Farnborough air show, to cut production 27,186 10,828 to one A380 per month in 2018 is an acknowl- edgement that the backlog is not being replen- 28% 30% ished anywhere near fast enough to support a 44% modest delivery rate. Airlines are obviously free to place orders – but are not. Emirates is Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer (July 2016) Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer (July 2016) the only carrier that has gone big on the big platform, but Airbus has shown little enthusi- North America Asia-Pacific Europe Airbus A320neo Boeing 737 Max Boeing 737NG asm for its call for an A320- or A330-style re- Airbus Bombardier engining for greater fuel efficiency to create an Latin America Africa Middle East Comac C919 Irkut MC-21 A320ceo Cseries A380neo. In short, there is some very real pros- 20 | Flight International | 9-15 August 2016 flightglobal.com 2 | FlightGlobal FlightGlobal | 3 FIN_090816_020-023.indd 20 04/08/2016 10:34 WORLD AIRLINER CENSUSANALYSIS 2016 Boeing’s success in delivering 787s has the type’s in-service fleet count on track to climb beyond the 747 next year AirTeamImages pect of the A380 becoming an out-of-produc- Airbus and Boeing are facing gramme over the second quarter, as a result of tion type in the not-too-distant future. difficulties in production ramp-up, and Boe- Likewise the 747; Boeing’s recent half-year something new, or at least ing’s $1.5 billion in pre-tax charges included results saw it rein in its already modest plans new in recent aerospace its re-classification of $1.2 billion of 787 flight- for the -8. A previously announced intention test aircraft costs as research and development. to lift output to one aircraft a month in 2019 history: slowing demand But while both companies are clearly deal- has been scrapped – and, even then, Boeing ing with practical problems that stem from hav- says it needs to close more deals to keep pro- ing developed hugely popular products that duction running at its current rate of 0.5 air- saw a reversal of fortunes to post a second-quar- customers want to buy in large numbers – so- craft a month. ter operating loss of $973 million, and halved its called “first-world problems”, perhaps – they Perhaps more alarmingly, those half-year re- guidance for the division’s full-year operating are also facing something new, or at least new sults may augur a turn in fortunes for both lead- margin – having previously told investors to ex- in recent aerospace history: slowing demand. ing airframers. Boeing Commercial Airplanes pect a 9% return on sales for 2016, they must In presenting its first-half analysis, Boeing now make do with just 4.5-5%. Underscoring made this clear, taking care to prepare inves- the challenge of staying competitive in this tors for a softening in demand for widebody highly charged game, overall planned 2016 aircraft. A planned rate increase for the 787 is spending on research and development has being re-considered, an already-slower rate of been increased by a third, to $4.8 billion. 777 output may not be sustainable and, for the 747, outright cancellation is now a possibility. PRODUCTION TROUBLES Airbus has more on its plate than A380 pro- Airbus commercial aircraft earnings were gramme inertia, hitches in the A350 ramp-up down by 70%, to €421 million for the half and a first-half profit slump attributed to a year, on flat revenues of €21 billion. Some of “back-loaded delivery profile, lower A330 pro- those financial ripples were caused by produc- duction and transition pricing on the A320 Airbus tion issues – Airbus took a charge of €385 mil- and A330”. For the half year, commercial air- The A380 needs a surge of orders to survive lion ($423 million) against the A350 pro- craft order intake dropped by 30% compared ❯❯ flightglobal.com 9-15 August 2016 | Flight International | 21 FlightGlobal | 3 FIN_090816_020-023.indd 21 04/08/2016 10:35 ANALYSIS WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2016 WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS 2016 ❯❯ with the year-ago period and profit before one-off charges was still down 17%. Airbus/Boeing commercial order backlog by region At one level, of course, an orders slowdown Number of aircraft on its own is little cause for alarm. After a 2,500 three-year order boom, from 2013 to 2015, Air- bus and Boeing have burgeoning backlogs and 2,000 the principal challenge of building and deliv- ering lots of aircraft. Given the complexity of 1,500 organising mass production of such compli- cated products, some difficulties can hardly be unexpected. Deal with them efficiently and all 1,000 is well. Unfortunately, a profits and orders slump comes against a background of rising 500 geopolitical tensions and economic jitters, no- tably including slowdowns in the key Asian 0 emerging markets whose voracious demand Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America Unknown area did so much to keep the aerospace industry Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer (July 2016) buoyant after the 2008 financial crisis. Airbus Boeing TURBULENCE Top 10 fleets - mainline aircraft It is often said that the Airbus-Boeing order In service fleet backlog is so large that even an unprecedent- Manufacturer & aircraft family 2016 2015 Change edly large number of cancellations would not Airbus A320 family 6,510 6,041 7.8% materially upset economics of the aerospace Boeing 737-600/700/800/900 5,567 5,115 8.8% industry. Some pressure off the delivery pace Boeing 777 1,324 1,258 5.2% could even be a good thing. But the question Airbus A330 1,154 1,093 5.6% now is: can aerospace shrug off another 2008- Boeing 737-200/300/400/500 945 1,006 -6.1% style financial crisis and global downturn? The Boeing 767 742 762 -2.6% answer, fortunately, remains to be seen – but Boeing 757 688 737 -6.6% even if there is no forthcoming crash, Western Boeing 717/MD-80/MD-90/DC-9 655 668 -1.9% economies are overdue for the downside of Boeing 747 515 558 -7.7% their economic cycles.