WHAT CAN BE LEARENED FROM A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF PROTESTS IN SOUTH AFRICA
By John Devenish
1. SCATTERGRAPH 2. PROTEST MAPPING 3.PROTEST PROCESS
SCATTERGRAPH
A scatter plot , scatterplot , or scattergraph is a type of mathematical diagram using Cartesian coordinates to display values for typically two variables for a set of data. If the points are color-coded you can increase the number of displayed variables to three.
The data is displayed as a collection of points, each having the value of one variable determining the position on the horizontal axis and the value of the other variable determining the position on the vertical axis. [2] This kind of plot is also called a scatter chart , scattergram , scatter diagram ,[3] or scatter graph . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scatter_plot
Scattergraph adopted for analysing protests X axis Degree of organization Y axis degree of militancy.
Determination of values of the variables X AXIS (Horizontal) shows the degree of organisation
Some attempt to solve problems before protest action is embarked on +0.5 Protestors have a set of demands+0.5 Appointment of spokespersons +0.5 Use of media ie posters flyers+0.5 Involvement of organisations ie Civics CBO,s +0.5 Use of blockades +0.5 March/Picket +1 Land occupation +1 If protest involves both marches pickets and blockades count only March/Picket Permitted (legal) march +0.5 Use of buses other transport to take protest to CBD or other area to get more publicity + 0.5 Bail fund ability to organise secondary protests outside courts + 0.5 Protest sustained for more than 24 hours +0.5 Involvement of Trade Unions Political Parties +0.5
If score > 5 score =5
Y AXIS (Vertical) Degree of confrontation (Militancy) 1. Passive actions Vigils, petitions, meetings 1 2. 2 Marches, Pickets 2 3. 3 Disruptive actions Blockades, Occupations, Strikes, Nonviolent direct action 3 4. If any of these incidents occur at March or Picket make 3 and add: Property damage +0.25 , intimidation threats +0.25, injuries +0.25 fighting between groups or with police +0.25 5. If score> 3.5 & any of these incidents occur make 4 and add else just add: Use of firearms explosives incl petrol bombs +0.25 deaths +0.25 widespread injuries especially of police +0.25 extensive property damage esp by fire arson +0.25
Practical Application: Some protests in Cape Town
Note the use of color and labels to convey additional information.
Possible relationships between variables
JAVA SCRIPT PLOTTER
DRAWING SCATTERGRAPHS IS TIME CONSUMING THE JAVA SCRIPT PLOTTER Allows you to plot Scattergrams by entering text protestdata[0] = 3; X protestdata[1] = 4.5; Y protestdata[2] = 0; Can be used for size color with slight changes to programme protestdata[3] = "3 July 1990 "; Date protestdata[4] = "Soweto Orlando"; Location REPEAT
INTRODUCTION OF ADDITIONAL VARIABLES
PROTESTS BY SIZE
AVERAGE OF PROTESTS OVER MONTH, YEAR
Use formula AVERAGE in Excel Also can be used to compare averages of different cities provinces countries.
THE JAVA SCRIPT PLOTTER displays on protest at a time moving to the next protest is by clicking a button or after a set period of time. setTimeout("mainloop()",1000); In thousandths of a second. By a using a short time intervals trends over years or even decades can be observed.
INVESTIGATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN XENOPHOBIC VIOLENCE, MILITANCY AND ORGANISATION
SCATTERGRAPH IN EXCEL
2. PROTEST MAPPING Sample Maps showing location of protests Note the use of different symbols and labels to convey additional information such as date and type of protest.
PROTEST MAPPER Displays the location and date of protests and with changes additional information.
3.PROTEST PROCESS Protest occur over period of time It has inputs, grievances often there is trigger event. This can be many things evictions, cut-offs arrogant remark by a government official or upcoming elections. Protestors use different methods of protest (tactics) which are influenced by factors such as the presence of organizations, numbers, the type of people protesting, previous experience and many other factors. Protests may have untended consequences. It has a outcome either the issues are resolved otherwise another protest occurs after a period of time new protest methods may be used perhaps more militant ones. This process can best be understood by a FLOWCHART like diagram.
Service Delivery is a general term for protests related to housing electricity water they are not ”Political” Protests, strikes. General dissatisfaction with economic and political situation may play a role in many of these protests. They are often labelled in the media a service delivery protests as the press may not be aware the exact issues due to poor communication language or other factors.
PROTEST ISSUES
Gauteng July 2014 –June 2015 CCS Protest Observatory http://ccs.ukzn.ac.za/default.asp?2,27,3,1858
Grievances cited by protesters 2012-2013 Source: “University of Johannesburg Media Briefing: Community Protests 2004-2013,” Johannesburg, Social Change Research Chair, http://www.uj.ac.za/EN/Newsroom/News/Pages/home.aspx
PROTEST METHODS (TACTICS)
CCS Protest Observatory Gauteng July 2014 – June 2015
The blockade is the most popular method. Sometimes methods are combined as in marches blockades other methods are occupations pickets and property destruction.
UNENTENDED CONSEQUENCES . A protest should be directed against the persons or institutions responsible for the problem local government or employers in a strike often however persons not connected with the problem may be affected Criminals may join a march or demonstration or use the disruption and the fact the police are distracted to steal. There may be conflict with people who don’t support the protest. Some people may see the protest as a opportunity to settle other issues as in local shop owners against foreigners. Agent provocateurs may infiltrate the protest to discredit the protestors. This opportunistic violence needs to distinguished from violent actions connected with the protest for example fighting with the police.
Presence of organizations discourages opportunistic violence, looting and Xenophobia.
The horizontal blue lines represent opportunistic violence looting Xenophobia stoning cars. Notice the strong negative correlation (Gauteng July 2014 - June 2015)
Greater chance of Xenophobia looting and conflict with other groups if the protest is already violent.
OUTCOMES SUCESSFUL OUTCOME: OCCUPY UMLAZI
Occupy Umlazi: Hesitant Steps Towards Political Ideology
by China Ngubane, published in Politikon
In Umlazi we leared a variety of lessons from weeks of protest marred by state violence, followed by a Ward Committee election won by the Occupy movement. The ebb and flow of ideology is one such lesson: it is a necessary part of moving from local to global, to address both deep problems and the politicians who sustain them. http://ccs.ukzn.ac.za/default.asp?2,68,3,2675
FETAKGOMO ANC LEADERSHIP TAUGHT LESSON BY COMMUNITY SICK OF CORRUPTION
The community of Ga-Nchabeleng has won an important victory against the corrupt ANC leadership in Fetakgomo municipality, Limpopo. For two weeks in September the community protested daily. This included a 3,000 strong march to the Fetakgomo municipality offices.
The protest was sparked when work was halted on a new Home Affairs office in the centre of Ga- Nchabeleng on land given by the community to the municipality for development. Fetakgomo ANC pulled the plug on this site when they realised that the tender had not been awarded to one of their ‘inner circle’ and an opportunity to loot the tender process for self-enrichment had been missed.
The final straw for the community however was when the building work that had begun was demolished and a pre-existing unused municipal building – a previous white elephant project – was designated the Home Affairs office. However, this building is kilometres away from the municipal business and administrative centre and in fact kilometres from anywhere! In a community suffering severe unemployment, where huge swathes of the people are reliant on social grants, the ability to easily access the services of Home Affairs was an important developmental achievement. To have that snatched away and the suffering of the community prolonged just so a corrupt few could enrich themselves caused outrage. http://workerssocialistparty.co.za/2014/09/
UNSUCESSFUL OUTCOME RECURRENT SERVICE DELVERY PROTESTS IN THE WESTEN CAPE http://ccs.ukzn.ac.za/files/major-protestjuly 2014-june2015.pdf Page 22
KURUMAN SCHOOL BOYCOTT OVER ROADS http://ccs.ukzn.ac.za/files/major-protestjuly 2014-june2015.pdf Page 37
Success seems to depend on the choice of the correct tactics for the circumstances & ability to control unentered consequences, media and solidarity.
JavaScript Code for the Scatter graph Plotter and Protest Mapper. Open a saved html (Webpage) file with text editor replace text with these texts You need a image for the background like this for Plotter and a map for the Protest Mapper.
It must be in the same folder as html file. Also need 2 images for the forward and back buttons.
SCATTERGRAPH PLOTTER
ANALYSIS OF PROTESTS WITH X Y GRAPH
X AXIS (Horizontal) shows the degree of organisation
Some attempt to solve problems before protest action is embarked on +0.5
Protestors have a set of demands+0.5
Appointment of spokespersons +0.5
Use of media ie posters flyers+0.5
Involvement of organisations ie Civics CBO,s +0.5
Use of blockades +0.5
March/Picket/Occupation +1
If protest involves both marches pickets and blockades count only March/Picket
Permited (legal) march +0.5
Use of buses other transport to take protest to CBD or other area to get mor publicity + 0.5
Bail fund ablity to organise secondary protests outside courts + 0.5
Protest sustained for more than 24 hours +0.5
Involvement of Trade Unions Political Parties +0.5
If score > 5 score =5
Y AXIS (Vertical) Degree of confrontation (Militancy)
1. Passive actions Vigils, petitions, meetings 1
2. 2 Marches, Pickets 2
3. 3 Disruptive actions Blockades, Occupations, Strikes, Nonviolent direct action 3
4. If any of these incidents occur at March or Picket make 3 and add: Property damage +0.25 , intimidation threats +0.25, injuries +0.25 fighting between groups or with police +0.25
5. If score> 3.5 & any of these incidents occur make 4 and add else just add: Use ofirearms explosives incl petrol bombs +0.25 deaths +0.25 widespread injuries especially of police +0.25 extensive property damage esp by fire arson +0.25
PROTEST MAPPER
PROTEST MAPPER