Fault Lines: , DEC 2017 Jakarta is the economic, cultural, and political center of Indonesia. As such it represents an interdependent and complex problem set where points of friction manifest and potentially pose a threat to the stability of Indonesia as a whole. Culturally, and in part as result of their country’s archipelago geography, Indonesians remain rather insular. Historically-rooted prejudices against the Chinese continue to be prevalent and have risen in recent years. These prejudices, in combination with increasing preference for the role of Islam in government, contributed to the ouster of the mayor of Jakarta and effectively served as a harbinger of changes to come in the Jakarta political and social environments. Despite being a major regional economic link, and the seat of ASEAN, the Bank of Indonesia, and the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Jakarta is home to a rapidly growing and economically struggling population. Rampant corruption and economic policies favoring the middle class have effectively created a disadvantaged population that is vulnerable to exploitation by actors in the region. The following fault lines, if exploited, have the potential to contribute to instability in the Jakarta operational environment: Resurgence in historical prejudice against the Chinese: The native (pribumi) Indonesian population is endemically prejudicial against ethnic and Chinese influence in Indonesian politics and economy. This prejudice is fueled by the confluence of economic inequalities FAULT LINES suffered by many natives. Thus, they believe that ethnic Chinese are more likely than pribumi to benefit from the Jakartan economic environment. Further, pribumi perceive that ethnic Chinese harbor divided national loyalties based on their ethnicity and the economic opportunities provided by are “exploitable Chinese investment. sources of Widespread corruption and partiality in business and politics: Corruption is viewed as the biggest problem in Jakarta and a significant contributor to the ’s inability to systemically function (economically) for all. Economic and political influence can be bought (and sold) to further the agendas of multiple actors and effect change across Jakartan society. instability in the Lack of economic mobility for lower socioeconomic groups: Jakartans of lower socio-economic class often suffer from a lack of basic services human domain; (notably water and sewage), experience evictions in favor of new development that will not benefit them, and are unable to afford a post- elementary education required for formal employment, all situations that restrict opportunity for improvement of socioeconomic status/quality of they can be real or life. Contentious division over the role of Islam in government: Indonesia is experiencing a growth in support for incorporating Islamic laws and perceived.” traditions into formal government despite its current status as a secular state. Recent legislation has codified laws that mandate respect for Islam Source: GCKN Fault Line Methodology, 2017 and prescribes heavy penalties for those convicted of violating them. The inability to come to consensus on the role of Islam in politics is an ongoing conflict of disparate views.

Percentage of ethnic groups in Jakarta, 2000 census Javanese INDIGENOUS GROUPS Betawi

FAULT 35% Sudanese 28% Batak Minangkabau Chinese Malay Other 15% 4% 3% 2% 6% 7% LINES Percentage of population below the poverty line, 2005-2013 (scale for each line noted in margin in matching color) 10 20 National Average

(if exploited) Jakarta 15 JAKARTA 5 Assessment of impact 0 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SIGNIFICANT Extreme 1 Resurgence in prejudice against Chinese Probable with major consequence High Risk MODERATE 2 Corruption & partiality in business and politics Probable with major consequence Major Significant Risk

MODERATE Moderate 24 1 3 Lack of economic mobility for lower class Probable with major consequence Risk 3 Moderate MODERATE 4 Division over role of Islam in government Probable with moderate consequence CONSEQUENCE Low Risk

Minor Pervasiveness, Importance, & Recovery Highly Improbable Probable Very Unlikely PROBABILITY Likely Resurgence in prejudice Pervasiveness Importance Implications: 1 against Chinese Recovery If exploited, these conditions could substantially affect the political and economic stability Pervasiveness of Jakarta, and therefore Indonesia as a whole. A population marginalized by corruption and Corruption & partiality Importance economic policies preventing social mobility is likely to be vulnerable to actors who promise 2 in business and politics Recovery increased agency. As the vast majority of Jakartans are Muslim, the most likely exploitation method is Islamic populism. Given the recent propensity to support an increased role for Is- Lack of economic Pervasiveness lam in Indonesian politics and the growing presence of extreme Islamist ideologies, Indone- mobility for lower class Importance sia’s ability to continue to act as a U.S. ally in the fight against Islamic terrorism in the region 3 Recovery could be degraded. The resurgence in historical Chinese prejudice may result in reduced Chinese investment in Indonesia and Jakarta. This would ultimately harm the economy Division over role of Pervasiveness and create an opening for other countries to gain influence in Indonesia and Jakarta while Importance reducing the Chinese sphere of influence. 4 Islam in government Recovery

1 2 3 4 5

DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED angerang aata ndonesia oplation ensit A Fault Line Analysis is our enss methodology for identifying ava Sea unstable and exploitable

Bekasi conditions within an OE.

oda akarta tara (North akarta)

oda akarta Barat TRADOC G-2 Fort Leavenworth (est akarta) 801 Harrison Dr., Fort Leavenworth, KS, 66027 oda akarta Pusat (Central akarta) POC: Jennifer Dunn (913) 684-7962 ota angerang [email protected] DAERAH KHUSUS IBUKOTA JAKARTA

Persons per sq. km. oda akarta imur (ast akarta) Less than 5,000

BANTEN oda akarta Selatan (South akarta) ota 5,001 - 10,000

ota angerang Selatan 10,001 - 12,500 12,501 - 15,000

15,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 30,000

Bekasi Bogor More than 30,000 ota epok 0 1.5 3 6 Kilometers JAWA BARAT

angerang aata ndonesia oet eliion Reported religion National aerage poert rate: 13.% enss (shown in pie charts) ava Sea Bekasi Muslim

oda akarta tara (North akarta) Christian 5.3%

oda akarta Barat oda akarta Pusat Catholic (est akarta) (Central akarta) 3.% 3.% Buddhist ota angerang DAERAH KHUSUS IBUKOTA JAKARTA Not asked

oda akarta imur (ast akarta) Poverty rate 3.1% (shown in background color)

BANTEN oda akarta Selatan (South akarta) ota Bekasi 3.% 3.1% 5.3%

ota angerang Selatan

Bekasi Bogor Bogor ota epok JAWA BARAT 0 1.5 3 6 Kilometers Source: Lambang Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Indonesia (http://sp2010.bps.go.id/)