Welfare Reform - Local Impact

The following slides provide a summary of the impact of welfare reform to 2017 and the proposed reforms to 2020.

Data is presented at ward level and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) Policy in Practice – The cumulative impact of welfare reform Provisional Analysis 1

The following data analysis is based on 29,500 records taken from the Single Housing Benefit Extract (SHBE)

The impacts to 2017 - Total value The impacts to 2020 - Total value

The total estimated weekly loss in benefits across the city is £225,695. The total estimated weekly loss in benefits across the city is £1,622,446. This is based on the aggregation of all pre-2017 reforms. This is based on an aggregation of all reforms scheduled to be in-place by 2020.

An estimated 1,192 households were impacted by more than £30 per week An estimated 19,110 households will be impacted by more than £30 per Further analysis has shown that 169 households lost more than £100. week . Some 10,459 households were not affected by the pre-2017 reforms. Further analysis shows that 3,698 households will lose more than £100.

At ward level At ward level Bentilee & Ubberley - is estimated to have had the largest ‘loss’ - Bentilee & Ubberley - Is estimated to have the largest ‘loss’ - amounting to amounting to £15,595 per week. £115,779 per week. 53 households are estimated to be impacted by more than £30 per week 1,424 households are estimated to be impacted by more than £30 per and 1 by more than £100 per week. week and 257 by more than £100 per week. Joiners Square - is estimated to have had the second largest ‘loss’ - Abbey Hulton - Is estimated to have the second largest ‘loss’ - amounting amounting to £10,940 per week. to £93,414 per week. 54 households are estimated to be impacted by more than £30 per week 1,186 households are estimated to be impacted by more than £30 per and 27 by more than £100 per week. week and 182 by more than £100 per week.

At Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) level (159 LSOAs in the City) At Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) level (159 LSOAs in the City) Burslem Town Centre and Hanley City centre areas are each estimated to Burslem Town Centre and Hanley City centre areas are each estimated to have a loss of more than £5,000 per week – have a loss of more than £25,000 per week –

56 LSOA across large parts of the city are estimated to have had equivalent 19 LSOA predominantly in the Trentham, Meir Park, Birches Head East, figures of less than £1,000 per week – with 32 of these experiencing figures Baddeley Green areas are estimated to have equivalent figures of less than of less than £500. £3,000 per week. – and only one with a figure of less than £1,000.

Provisional analysis indicates that there is a strong association between :- The total weekly loss due to reforms and deprivation – particularly at the smaller LSOA geography. Policy in Practice – The cumulative impact of welfare reform Provisional Analysis 1 – Total impact cumulative £ per week Policy in Practice – The cumulative impact of welfare reform Provisional Analysis – Reforms to 2017

Reforms to 2017 - Highly Impacted Households

An estimated 1,192 households were impacted by more than £30 per week – 1.1% of the city total

At ward level Lightwood North & Normacot 42 households (2.2% of the total ward) are estimated to be impacted by more than £30 per week Other most affected wards are: Joiners Square 54 households (2.1% of the total) Burslem Central 58 households (2.0% of the total) Etruria & Hanley 51households (1.8% of the total)

Provisional Analysis indicates that there were particular concentrations of highly impacted households in the following LSOA –

Hanley City centre - Regent Road Normacot Argyll - Atholl Road area Burslem town centre – Middleport Newport Lane. Tunstall High Street North and Summerbank Road Longton South Dunrobin Street, Willow Row and Sutherland Institute Burslem Park, Moorland Road and Macclesfield Street Shelton Snow Hill, Rectory Road and Sun Street Stoke Town Centre London Road, Yeaman Street Portmeirion Boothen Campbell Road and Hyde Park Industrial Estate * All affected by more than £30 per week

Policy in Practice – The cumulative impact of welfare reform Provisional Analysis – Reforms to 2020

Reforms to 2020 - Highly Impacted Households

An estimated 19,110 households will be impacted by more than £30 per week – 17.8% of the city total

At ward level Bentilee & Ubberley 1,424 households (30.4% of the total ward) are estimated to be impacted by more than £30 per week Other most affected wards are: Abbey Hulton & Townsend 1,186 households (27.8% of the total) Meir North 696 households (27.8% of the total) Meir South 652 households (27.7% of the total) Burslem Central 774 households (26.9% of the total)

Provisional Analysis indicates that there are particular concentrations of highly impacted households in the following thoroughfares / facilities –

Berryhill Village 107 households Reginald Mitchell Court, Stubbs Lane 80 households Oak Priory ,Castle Grove, Abbey Hulton 77 households Barks Drive, Norton 75 households Dawlish Drive, Bentillee 70 households Winchester Avenue, Bentilee 69 households Ubberley Road, Bentilee 68 households Beverley Drive, Bentilee 66 households Dividy Road, Stoke-on-Trent 62 households West End Village, London Road 62 households * All affected by more than £30 per week Policy in Practice – The cumulative impact of welfare reform Provisional Analysis 1 – Characteristics of residents affected

The impacts to 2017 - Characteristics The impacts to 2020 - Characteristics

Economic Status Not in work lone parent / disabled Economic Status Not in work

Household Type Lone Parent / Couple with children Household Type Single Persons / Lone Parent

Tenure Council Tenant / Private Rented / Social Rent Tenure Private Rented

Age Group 30-34 / 25-29 / 22-24 / 35-39 Age Group 30-34 / 25-29

Number of Children 3 or more children Number of Children 3-7 children

Ward – LSOA Bentilee & Ubberley / Meir North / Ward – LSOA Burslem Central / Joiner’s Square / Abbey Hulton & Townsend / Meir South Burslem Park / Lightwood North and Normacot

Deprivation Most deprived communities Deprivation More deprived communities

Mosaic Group Municipal Challenge / Transient Renters / Mosaic Group Transient Renters / Family Basics / Family Basics / Vintage Values Municipal Challenge

Benefit Breakdown

The following slides provide a time series breakdown over the 2010-16 period of the following benefits:

• Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) & Universal Credit (UC) • Incapacity Benefit (IB) & Employment Support Allowance (ESA) • Disability Living Allowance (DLA) & Personal Independence Payments (PIP) Jobseekers Allowance 2010-2016

National Context Trend

As of November 2016 there were 2,290 city residents in receipt of JSA The following graph shows the trend between 1999 and 2016 – with representing 1.4% of the working age population - the 61st highest rate in comparison against regional and national averages. England & Wales out of 348 districts.

Rates are currently less than half of those in Wolverhampton (3.1%) and Birmingham (3.0%) – and Middlesbrough (3.5%) and South Tyneside (3.2%) who top the rankings.

Locally, rates have remained consistently in-line with the regional average and only nominally above the national level (1.1%) since 2013.

The neighbouring boroughs have equivalent rates of: Newcastle-under-Lyme (0.7%), Staffordshire Moorlands (0.5%), and Stafford Borough (0.4%)

JSA numbers peaked at 8,580 in February 2010 - 5.3% - when the national figure was 4.0% - and remained as high as 6,980 persons (4.4%) until August 2013. Local Context Definition

JSA rates are currently highest in the Joiners Square ward (3.4%) and lowest Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) was introduced on 7th October 1996 and has in Hanford & Trentham (0.5%) . both contributory and income-related elements. It is paid to people under Between 2010 and 2016 JSA by fell by two-thirds across the city – with the state pension age who are available for and actively seeking work. largest declines in Moorcroft from 8.0% to 2.6% – Etruria & Hanley from 8.1% to 2.9% - and Bentilee & Ubberley from 7.3% to 2.8%. It is expressed as a rate of the working age population (16-64)

At LSOA level 10 of the city’s 159 areas have zero JSA claimants. – and one covering the city centre has a rate of 6.0%.

Universal Credit and Claimant Count

Universal Credit Claimant Count

Universal Credit (UC) aims to simplify the benefits system by providing a The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefit single payment based upon the circumstances of the household. Support for principally for the reason of being unemployed: housing costs, children and childcare costs are integrated in the new benefit. • from April 2015, the Claimant Count includes all Universal Credit It also provides additions for disabled people and carers. claimants who are required to seek work and be available for work, as The following benefits will be abolished as Universal Credit rolls out: well as all JSA claimants • Income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance • between May 2013 and March 2015, the Claimant Count included all out • Income-related Employment and Support Allowance of work Universal Credit claimants as well as all JSA claimants • Income Support • between October 1996 and April 2013, the Claimant Count was a count of • Working Tax Credit the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) • Child Tax Credit • Housing Benefit The Claimant Count includes people who claim unemployment-related benefits but who do not receive payment. UC was not rolled-out across Stoke-on-Trent until February 2016 – for single For example, some claimants will have had their benefits stopped for a people without children. limited period of time by Jobcentre Plus. Some people claim JSA in order to Current recipients of the six benefits listed above will be automatically receive National Insurance Credits. moved to UC before October 2017.

As of April 2017 there were 1,532 people in-receipt of UC across Stoke-on- As of November 2016 there were 3,130 person registered on the Claimant Trent – representing 1.0% of the working age population – this compares Count – representing 2.0% of the working age population compared with with 1.3% across England and 1.2%. 1.8% across England and Wales. – the 97th highest rate out of 348 districts.

UC statistics are currently not available at geographies below local authority [Claimant Count figures are generally 35-60% higher than JSA figures]. level.

Jobseekers Allowance Ward : 2010-2013-2016

2010 2013 2016 Wards <2.2% 4 3 28 City Average 4.5% 4.3% 1.6% Wards >8.8% 0 0 0 Jobseekers Allowance Super Output Area : 2010-2013-2016

2010 2013 2016 Super Output Areas <2.2% 33 36 114 City Average 4.5% 4.3% 1.6% Super Output Areas >8.8% 7 6 0 Incapacity Benefit – and - Employment and Support Allowance 2010-2016

National Context Trend As of November 2016 there were 16,010 city residents in receipt of either IB or ESA representing a combined rate of 10.1% of the working age population The following graph shows the trend between 1999 and 2016 – with - the 10th highest rate in England & Wales out of 348 districts. comparison against regional and national averages.

Currently there are only 603 city residents still in –receipt of IB-SDA. This represents 0.4% of the working age population compared with 0.2% across England & Wales.

Nationally, Blackpool has the highest combined rate of IB-ESA with 12.9% AND Hart in Hampshire the lowest with 2.3%.

Since the introduction of ESA combined volumes peaked across the city at 18,400 persons in May 2009 – someway below the peak number of recorded in November 2003 when 20,600 (13.3%) were in receipt of IB-SDA.

The neighbouring boroughs have equivalent combined rates of: Newcastle- under-Lyme (6.5%), Staffordshire Moorlands (5.5%), and Stafford Borough (4.9%) Local Context Definition

Combined IB-ESA rates are currently highest in the Bentilee & Ubberley ward This page aggregates data relating to the remaining Incapacity Benefit (15.8% - down from 19.4% in 2010) and lowest in Meir Park (4.5% - down caseload and the replacement benefit Employment and Support Allowance from 5.6% in 2010). Between 2010 and 2016 combined IB-ESA rates have fallen from 11.1% to It is expressed as a rate of the working age population (16-64) 10.1% – although rates have increased in 8 of the city’s 37 wards. The largest declines between 2010 and 2016 was in Meir Hay (down from 7.8% The graph (right) indicates the to 5.5%) and Weston Coyney (down from 9.7% to 6.6%). relative proportions of IB-SDA and ESA in Stoke-on-Trent since At LSOA level 6 of the city’s 159 areas have combined rates of IB-ESA below 2006. 3% – and four have rates over 20%. ESA overtook IB-SDA in November 2012 and now comprises 96% of the Combined caseload. Incapacity Benefit – and - Employment and Support Allowance Ward : 2010-2013-2016

2010 2013 2016 Wards <6.6% 3 5 6 City Average 11.1% 9.9% 10.1% Wards >15.4% 3 2 1 Incapacity Benefit – and - Employment and Support Allowance Super Output Area : 2010-2013-2016

2010 2013 2016 Super Output Areas <6.6% 38 46 46 City Average 11.1% 9.9% 10.1% Super Output Areas >15.4% 37 23 22 Disability Living Allowance – Working Age 2010-2016

National Context Trend

As of November 2016 there were 6,440 city residents of working age in The following graph shows the trend between 1999 and 2016 – with receipt of DLA representing 4.1% of the working age population - the 44th comparison against regional and national averages. highest rate in England & Wales out of 348 districts.

Rates are currently the highest in the West Midlands – with Walsall (3.5%) and Wolverhampton (3.4%) second and third respectively. – nationally Merthyr Tydfil (5.8%) and Torbay (5.7%) top the rankings – with five

Northamptonshire districts having the lowest rates 0.4-0.5% reflecting their early rollout of PIP.

Locally, rates have gradually converged with the regional and national averages as the rollout of PIP has gathered pace locally.

The neighbouring boroughs have equivalent rates of: Newcastle-under-Lyme (2.9%), Staffordshire Moorlands (2.7%), and Stafford Borough (2.4%)

Local Context Definition

DLA working age rates are currently highest in the Bentilee & Ubberley ward Disability Living Allowance (DLA) was introduced on 1st April 1992 and is a (6.7%) and lowest in Hanley Park & Shelton (1.8%) . benefit for people who have become disabled before the age of 65 and who Between 2010 and 2016 working age DLA by fell by almost half across the need assistance with personal care or mobility. city – with the largest declines in Bentilee & Ubberley from 12.8% to 6.7%. and Meir north from 12.0% to 6.1%. From 8 April 2013, Disability Living Allowance for people aged 16-64 was replaced by Personal Independence payment (PIP) for new claims. PIP will At LSOA level 19 of the city’s 159 areas have less than 2.2% working-age DLA also gradually replace existing DLA claims for people aged 16-64. claimants. – and four have rates above 8.8%. It is expressed as a rate of the working age population (16-64) Disability Living Allowance – Working Age Ward : 2010-2013-2016

2010 2013 2016 Areas <2.2% 0 0 2 City Average 7.4% 7.0% 4.2% Areas >13.2% 0 0 0 Disability Living Allowance – Working Age Super Output Area : 2010-2013-2016

2010 2013 2016 Super Output Areas <2.2% 2 3 19 City Average 7.4% 7.0% 4.2% Super Output Areas >13.2% 10 6 0 Personal Independence Payments : 2013-2016

National Context Trend As of November 2016 there were 6,224 city residents in receipt of PIP representing 3.9% of the working age population - the 53rd highest rate in The following graph shows the trend between 2013 and 2016 – with England & Wales out of 348 districts. comparison against regional and national averages.

Rates are below those of Sandwell (4.3%) and Dudley (4.1%) in the West Midlands region. Welsh districts make-up seven of the highest ten rates – in- part due to the early rollout of PIP in the principality.

Locally, while rates continue to rise as the transition from DLA continues – the gap to the national average has closed as more districts are included in the rollout of PIP.

The neighbouring boroughs have equivalent rates of: Newcastle-under-Lyme (3.0%), Staffordshire Moorlands (2.4%), and Stafford Borough (2.4%)

Locally, the rate of DLA to PIP conversions has accelerated recently to c.400 per month – at this rate it will take a further 13 months to transition all outstanding working-age DLA cases to PIP. Local Context Definition

PIP statistics are not currently available at ward or LSOA geographies from From 8 April 2013, Disability Living Allowance for people aged 16-64 was either; replaced by Personal Independence payment (PIP) for new claims. PIP will The official labour market statistics source www.nomisweb.co.uk – part of also gradually replace existing DLA claims for people aged 16-64. the Office for National Statistics, or The DWP benefit statistics website www.stat-xplore.gov.uk It is expressed as a rate of the working age population (16-64)

Personal Independence Payments and Disability Living Allowance – Working Age : 2010-2016

National Context Trend As of November 2016 there were 12,331 city residents in receipt of PIP-DLA representing 7.8% of the working age population - compared with 4.1% The following graph shows the trend between 2011 and 2016 – with across the West Midlands region and 3.7% across England & Wales. comparison against regional and national averages.

Following the introduction of PIP in 2013 the number of working age recipients of either DLA or PIP increased from 11,300 to 13,600 persons in

November 2015 but have since declined both locally and nationally.

The smaller graph to the right indicates the total rates of DLA and PIP for all age groups :- • There are currently 8,520 city residents not of working age in-receipt of DLA – 2,000 of whom are aged under 16. • More than 90% of those aged 65 and over have been in-receipt of DLA for

more than 5 years.

Local Context Definition

PIP statistics are not currently available at ward or LSOA geographies from This page aggregates data relating to the remaining Disability Living either; Allowance caseload and the replacement benefit Personal Independence The official labour market statistics source www.nomisweb.co.uk – part of Payments. the Office for National Statistics, or The DWP benefit statistics website www.stat-xplore.gov.uk It is expressed as a rate of the working age population (16-64)

The graph (right) indicates the relative proportions of DLA and PIP in Stoke-on-Trent since 2011.

PIP now comprises 48% of the combined working-age caseload.

Deprivation Analysis

The following slides provide an analysis of the association between deprivation and benefits Indices of Deprivation - 2015

Context Comparison with the 2010 index

• Stoke-on-Trent – 14th most deprived of 326 English districts • 69 of the City’s LSOA’s • Previously ranked 16th on the 2010 & 2007 Indices changed by less than 2.5% - • Blackpool now ranked as the most deprived (1st) – replacing Liverpool • A further 48 by less than 5%. now ranked 4th • Only 13 changed by more • 30% of the population – 74,900 persons - are classified as living in areas in the 10% most deprived in England compared with 31% in 2010. than 10% • • More than half of the population (52% - 130,100 persons) live in areas 104 LSOA’s improved their classified in the 20% most deprived in England – unchanged since 2010. score while 54 declined. The neighbouring boroughs have performed as follows: Newcastle-under-Lyme –156th (150th in 2010) Persistent Deprivation - 85 of the 100 most deprived areas identified on ID2015 were in the top 100 in IMD 2000. Staffordshire Moorlands –207th (190th) Stafford Borough –233rd (232nd) Domains of Deprivation Composition of the Index

With regard to individual domains – or themes – the City is ranked as follows The Indices of Deprivation 2015 (ID2015) are measures of deprivation for (2010 rank in brackets): every Super Output Area and local authority area in England. The indices combine a total of 38 indicators across seven domains (Income, Employment, Income deprivation –29th (32nd) Health and Disability, Education, Skills and Training, Barriers to Housing and Employment deprivation –19th (6th) Services, Living Environment, and Crime) into a single deprivation score and rank for each area. Health deprivation and disability –14th (19th)

Education, skills and training –5th (4th) The model is underpinned by the idea of distinct domains; or dimensions; of deprivation, that can be recognised and measured separately; and Barriers to Housing and Services - 268th (300th) experienced by individuals living in an area. People may be counted in one or Crime deprivation –37th (34th) more of the domains, and the overall index constructed as a weighted aggregation of seven domains listed above. Living Environment –98th (73rd)

Indices of Deprivation 2015 Associations – Benefits and Deprivation IMD 2015 and Jobseekers Allowance 2016

Context

A strong association exists between deprivation and JSA – As deprivation levels increase JSA rates increase :

Meir Park - overall estimated to be in the 27% least deprived areas in England has a JSA rate of 0.2%.

Bentilee & Ubberley – in the 4.5% most deprived areas has a JSA rate of 2.8%.

At ward level a number of ‘outliers’ were identified where particular geo-demographic characteristics exist – for example: large student populations or diverse populations within one administrative area.

This association was found to exist at LSOA and also at Local Authority district level.

Blackpool the most deprived district in England has the 23rd highest rate of JSA, while Middlesbrough with the highest rate of JSA (3.5%) is the 6th most deprived LA in England.

Conversely Wokingham and Hart – the least two deprived districts in England – have JSA rates of 0.4%.

Associations – Benefits and Deprivation IMD 2015 and Employment and Support Allowance 2016

Context

A strong association exists between deprivation and ESA – As deprivation levels increase ESA rates increase :

Hanford & Trentham - overall estimated to be in the 29% least deprived areas in England has an ESA rate of 4.3%.

Burslem Central – in the 7.3% most deprived areas has an ESA rate of 13.9%.

This association was found to exist at LSOA and also at Local Authority district level.

Blackpool the most deprived district in England also has the highest rate of ESA (12.6%), while Knowsley with the second highest rate of ESA (11.7%) is also 2nd most deprived LA in England.

Conversely Wokingham and Hart – the least two deprived districts in England – have ESA rates of 2.2%. – the second and third lowest in England & Wales Associations – Benefits and Deprivation IMD 2015 and Disability Living Allowance All Ages 2016

Context

A limited association exists between deprivation and JSA – As deprivation levels increase DLA rates generally increase :

Meir Park - overall estimated to be in the 27% least deprived areas in England has a DLA rate of 4.3%.

Meir North – in the 11.4% most deprived areas has a DLA rate of 8.6%.

At ward level a particular ‘outlier’ was identified:- Hanley Park & Shelton in the 26% most deprived areas – but with the lowest DLA rate (2.4%).

This association was found to exist at LSOA and also at Local Authority district level.

Blackpool the most deprived district in England has the 11th highest rate of DLA (6.9%), while Knowsley with the highest rate of DLA in England (8.2%) is the 2nd most deprived LA in England.

Conversely Wokingham and Hart – the least two deprived districts in England – have DLA rates of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively.

Associations – Benefits and Deprivation IMD 2015 and Disability Living Allowance Working Age 2016

Context

A limited association exists between deprivation and working age rates of DLA at ward level – As deprivation levels increase DLA rates generally increase :

Hanford & Trentham - overall estimated to be in the 29% least deprived areas in England has a working age DLA rate of 2.6%.

Bentilee & Ubberley – in the 4.5% most deprived areas has a working age DLA rate of 6.7%.

At LSOA level - no association was found between deprivation and the working age DLA rate – in-part due to the rollout of PIP.

This limited association was found at Local Authority district level.

Blackpool the most deprived district in England has the 4th highest rate of working age DLA (5.4%), while Torbay with the highest rate of working age DLA in England (5.7%) is the 46h most deprived LA in England.

Conversely Wokingham and Hart – the least two deprived districts in England – have working age DLA rates of 1.6%. And 1.5% respectively.

Associations – Benefits and Deprivation IMD 2015 and Other Benefits 2016

Strong statistical associations exist between Deprivation (IMD 2015) and the level of Income Support and Pension Credit – These associations were found to hold true at all three levels of geography – LSOA, Ward AND Local Authority district.

Blackpool – with the highest rate of Pension Credit (23.0% of all females 60+ / males 65+) – is also the most deprived district in England.

Middlesbrough – with the highest rate of Income Support (3.0% of all persons aged 16 and over) – is also the 6th most deprived district in England.

A level of statistical association exists between any two of the DWP-administered benefits analysed (*) - with the exceptions of: • Disability living Allowance – Working Age people – it is understood . • In-general – where there is a high prevalence of one benefit – there is a high prevalence of all benefits irrespective of the cohort the benefit is designed to support. (*) Including Jobseekers Allowance (JSA), Incapacity Benefit (IB), Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), Disability Living Allowance (DLA), Personal Independence Payments (PIP), Pension Credit (PC), Income Support (IS), Housing Benefit (HB), Attendance Allowance (AA) The association with Universal Credit is yet to fully emerge due to the differential rollout of the benefit across differing local authority areas.