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University of Southampton Research Repository ePrints Soton Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full thesis title", University of Southampton, name of the University School or Department, PhD Thesis, pagination http://eprints.soton.ac.uk UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON FACULTY OF ENGINEERING AND THE ENVIRONMENT Transportation Research Group Railway Track Capacity: Measuring and Managing by Melody Khadem Sameni Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy October 2012 Abstract This thesis adopts a holistic approach towards railway track capacity to develop methodologies for different aspects of defining, measuring, analysing, improving and controlling track capacity utilisation. Chapter 1 presents an overview of the concept of capacity and the railway capacity challenge is explained. Chapter 2 focuses on past approaches to defining and analysing the concept of railway capacity. Existing methods for estimating capacity utilisation are studied in four categories: analytical methods, parametric models, optimisation and simulation. Chapter 3 examines various factors affecting capacity utilisation. Chapter 4 develops the systems engineering foundation toward railway capacity. From process improvement methods, Six Sigma and its Define, Measure, Analyse, Improve and Control (DMAIC) cycle is chosen as the underlying framework of the thesis. Chapter 5 defines lean, micro and macro capacity utilisation based on the discrete nature of railway capacity. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to develop two novel methodologies to analyse lean capacity utilisation. A DEA model analyses relative efficiency of train operating companies based on their efficiency to transform allocated train paths (timetabled train kilometres) and franchise payments to passenger-kilometres while avoiding delays. A case study demonstrates its application to 16 train operating companies in the UK. The operational efficiency of stations is benchmarked from similar studies for ports and airports. Two models are developed for analysing technical efficiency and service effectiveness. 96 busiest stations in Great Britain are analysed by this method. For analysing capacity utilisation in the freight sector, the concept of ‘profit-generating capacity’ is introduced in chapter 6. It is applied in an American freight case study to choose between bulk and intermodal trains in a heterogeneous traffic. DEA is also used in another case study for identifying the most profitable commodities. Chapter 7 suggests using variation reduction and failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to control capacity utilisation. For improving railway capacity utilisation it is suggested to find and improve the weakest line section, the weakest trains and the weakest station. A real world case study of the South West Main Line in Great Britain, demonstrates applying these aspects. For finding the weakest line section two existing methods of the UIC 406 and the CUI method are compared with each other. For finding the weakest trains a meso index is suggested. It can identify which trains can be removed to free up some capacity in the busiest section of the line. Simulating delays and removing the highest delay causing trains is another method suggested. The weakest stations are identified by applying the DEA methodology developed in chapter 5. Target values for train stops at each station are suggested to be fed to the tactical timetabling. It is concluded that developing methodologies to analyse, improve and control railway capacity utilisation is needed and the methodologies proposed in this thesis can be a stepping stone towards them. To My parents, God’s angels in my life and to Professor Preston, my parent in the academia Acknowledgements The acknowledgments page is my favourite page of all in books and theses. It provides an opportunity to be grateful to all the people who have played great roles in our lives and remember that we are and can do nothing without social interactions. The most difficult part of this thesis is finding an appropriate way of thanking my parents. What a futile ambition… They totally devoted their lives to the wellbeing and education of their children (surprisingly two out of three are railway engineers!). They provided us an ocean of unconditional love and caring to be able to swim towards growth. They taught us numerous life lessons to be better human beings in this world. If finishing this thesis puts a single smile on their face, I will be the happiest daughter. I am also very thankful to Mohammad and Mona for being the best brother and sister in the world. Professor Preston… oh, where to begin! I did a month’s full-time research to decide where to do my PhD studies. The conclusion was so strong that I made up my mind either to do a PhD under the supervision of Professor Preston or never to do a PhD. I explained my research passion to him through email in November 2007 and received a very kind reply. There were some months of anxious waiting but my dream finally came true when I gained not only admission but also a full PhD scholarship. He suggested railway capacity as a rising and interesting research topic which cleverly put me on the right track in railway research that better matched my capabilities compared to my previous experiences in pure operations research. This was the beginning of an adventurous train journey that I have been on since October 2008. He is a supervisor sent directly from heaven: he is very organised, provides very quick and meticulous feedback, replies to all emails that need an answer concisely but efficiently within a few hours and is in good temper 99.9 per cent of the times. He is internationally celebrated, profoundly knowledgeable and passionate about railways as well as being one of the greatest human beings I have met in my life. He provided various opportunities for me to attend conferences and go on research visits to other universities. He gave me a delicate balance of freedom to develop my intellectual curiosity as well as disciplined supervision to keep me on track. In the past four years, the total number of his supporting letters for me exceeds 20. He has made countless contributions to my life. Most importantly he taught me how to face challenges, learn the lesson and he kindly and firmly took my hand whenever needed. In the beginning of my undergraduate studies in railway engineering, I was not sure whether I would like this major and wanted to change it. The reason I am now writing my PhD thesis is solely due to the brilliant professors of School of Railway Engineering at Iran University of Science and Technology who ignited my passion for railways. My heart-felt sincere thanks to my undergraduate supervisor, Dr. Ghoseiri and my master thesis co-supervisor, Dr. Aghaei for making me interested in railway operations and for all I have learnt from them. Dr. Amin Naseri, my master’s supervisor, kindly helped me to bridge between industrial and railway engineering. Dr.Yaghini and Mr. Ahmadi I provided some profound insights for my bachelor and master’s theses on train scheduling respectively. My research on railway capacity started just as Dr. Landex finished his PhD thesis on this topic. When I went in search of one of his papers, he generously shared all his research and experiences with me. It led to a joint sponsored research visit to the Technical University of Denmark in October 2009 for me to learn the Railsys software and the UIC 406 capacity method. This visit laid the building blocks of my thesis and resulted in further co-authored papers and cooperation between the two universities. I owe a deep debt of gratitude to him for supporting me just like a co-supervisor. Due to the very limited number of researchers working on railway capacity, he was always there whenever I needed help or was stuck. He kindly spared a lot of time in spite of his extremely busy schedule. Without his help and the synergy of discussing research ideas with him, it would have been utterly impossible to conduct this research. I would like to acknowledge Bernd Schittenhelm as well for being a complement to Dr.Landex whenever he was away. I am grateful to Dr. Lai from the Taiwan National University who initiated a research visit to the Railroad Engineering Program at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign where he did his PhD. Professor Barkan, the director, in every way supported this visit and enabled us to write a mutual proposal to win an Individual Enhancement Award from the University of Southampton to fund this. Professor Barkan, who is the pioneer of railway research and education in the North America, is very down to earth, a hallmark of great people. This is to the extent that he kindly accompanied me to buy a pair of safety shoes at 10 p.m to enable me to attend a railway site visit the following day. He managed this research visit excellently and put me in touch with one of his best master’s students working on the topic of railway capacity and train delays. The collaboration with Mark Dingler, currently Manager of Operations Planning at CSX Transportation, was very fruitful and we developed the concept of revenue-generating capacity for freight trains and did a case study in an American context.