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Hispanic Chamber's Latino Leadership

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Hispanic Chamber's Latino Leadership FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY – OKLAHOMA CITY BRANCH Latino Leadership Class VII Greater Oklahoma City Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Oklahoma City Branch May 12, 2020 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY The Fed, Monetary Policy, and the U.S. Economy Hispanic Chamber’s Latino Leadership Class VII May 12, 2020 Chad Wilkerson Vice President and Oklahoma City Branch Executive *The views expressed herein are those of the presenter only and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Structure & Functions of the Federal Reserve The “Fed” consists of three main entities: Primary responsibility areas: • Board of Governors: 7 members appointed by U.S. President • Monetary policy • Federal Reserve Banks: 12 total; semi-independent by design • Bank regulation • Federal Open Market Committee: 19 members; 12 voting • Financial services 3 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY The Federal Reserve’s Role in Monetary Policy • Dual Mandate from U.S. Congress: 1) Maximum employment 2) Price stability • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Board of Governors Reserve Bank Presidents • Jerome H. Powell, Chairman • John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chairman • Richard H. Clarida, Vice Chairman • Patrick T. Harker, Philadelphia • Randal K. Quarles, Vice Chairman of Supervision • Robert S. Kaplan, Dallas • Lael Brainard • Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis • Michelle W. Bowman • Loretta J. Mester, Cleveland • Open • Thomas I. Barkin, Richmond • Open • Raphael W. Bostic, Atlanta • Mary C. Daly, San Francisco • Charles L. Evans, Chicago • James Bullard, St. Louis • Esther L. George, Kansas City • Eric Rosengren, Boston 4 *Permanent voters in bold; 2020 rotating voters in red; 2021 rotating voters in blue FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY The Oklahoma City Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City • 2020 Is Our Centennial! • Functions and purposes ~ 50 staff • Research on U.S. and Oklahoma economies; energy sector and business survey focus • Examinations of Oklahoma financial institutions (~45 banks, ~175 holding cos.) • Community development programming for low and moderate income groups, workforce focus • Economic education and public outreach programming • 2020 OKC Fed Branch Board of Directors • Tina Patel (chair), Co-Owner & CFO, Promise Hotels, Tulsa • Walt Duncan, President, Duncan Oil Properties, Oklahoma City • Susan Plumb, Chair & CEO, Bank of Cherokee County, Tahlequah • Brady Sidwell, Principal, Sidwell Strategies, Enid • Chris Turner, President & CFO, First State Bank, Oklahoma City • Katrina Washington, Owner/Broker, Stratos Realty, Oklahoma City • Dana Weber, Chair & CEO, Webco Industries, Sand Springs 5 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY In early 2020, cases of COVID-19 spread rapidly across the nation, and cases in Oklahoma have risen Confirmed Cases Cases on Log Scale % of Pop. % of Pop. % of Pop. % of Pop. 0.45 0.45 10,000,000 10,000,000 U.S.: 0.40% U.S. 0.40 0.40 1,000,000 1,000,000 0.35 0.35 100,000 100,000 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 10,000 OK 10,000 0.20 0.20 1,000 1,000 0.15 0.15 OK: 0.12% 100 100 0.10 0.10 10 10 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 1 1 8-Mar 29-Mar 19-Apr 10-May 8-Mar 29-Mar 19-Apr 10-May 6 Source: The COVID Tracking Project FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY In early 2020 prior to COVID-19, unemployment rates were at historic lows Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted Percent 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 U.S. 6 4 4 2 OK OKC MSA 2 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 7 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER recession shading FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY New state claims for unemployment insurance surged past record highs in March and again the first week of May Weekly Initial UI Claims Ths, sa Through Week Ending May 2, 2020 Ths, sa 8,000 80 U.S., left 7,000 Oklahoma, right 70 6,000 60 5,000 50 4,000 40 3,000 30 2,000 20 1,000 10 0 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 8 Source: U.S. Department of Labor FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY U.S. GDP decreased 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, despite solid months in January and February Real U.S. GDP Growth % chg, saar % chg, saar 6 6 3 3 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 -9 -9 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Real GDP q/q (saar) Real GDP y/y 9 Sources: BEA, NBER, Haver Analytics FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Inflation is likely to remain subdued in the near term Inflation Rate Change 12m % chg 12m % chg 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -1.5 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Core PCE inflation Headline PCE inflation 10 Sources: BEA, NBER, Haver Analytics FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Questions for discussion today • In what ways has the spread of coronavirus, including government directives (shelter-in-place, essential businesses, etc.), affected your business? • How has access or lack of access to credit opportunities further affected your operations, employment, and capital spending plans in this time? 11 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY – COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT Community Development An Overview FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY – OKLAHOMA CITY BRANCH Community Development at the Fed Mission of the Department Develop the capacity of low- and moderate-income (LMI) individuals, their communities and the organizations that serve them to create widely shared prosperity and economic opportunity. • Promote fair and impartial access to financial products through research, relationship building and resource development. • Grounded in the Community Reinvestment Act • Focused on low- and moderate-income communities • Responsive to local needs and opportunities 13 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY – OKLAHOMA CITY BRANCH Areas of Focus • Community Development Investments • Small Business and Economic Development • Workforce Development • Digital Inclusion • Research and Analysis Relationships, Research and Resources 14 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY – OKLAHOMA CITY BRANCH Investment Connection Over $34 million in connections Requirements • Nonprofit or CDFI “There are many valuable non-profit • CRA eligible activity organizations in our communities. We like • One year of reviewed or audited to find partners that align with the bank’s financials. strategic initiatives so that both the non- profit and the bank find value. Investment • Request depends on capacity and project Connection has helped Guaranty Bank need. identify new partners that fit into our CRA • Online application: initiatives.” http://investmentconnection.kcfed.org Nancy Taylor, Guaranty Bank 15 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY – OKLAHOMA CITY BRANCH www.kansascityfed.org/community 16 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY – OKLAHOMA CITY BRANCH Questions? 17.
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