J.P.Morgan: Brazil Opportunities Conference December, 2019 Disclaimer
This communication contains certain statements that are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Some of these forward-looking statements are identified with words like “believe,” “may,” “could,” “would,” “might,” “possible,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “estimate”, “potential”, “outlook” or “continue,” the negative of these words, other terms of similar meaning or the use of future dates. Forward-looking statements in this communication include, without limitation, statements regarding the implementation of operating and financing strategies and initiatives, including with respect to the integration of Fibria’s operations and expected potential synergies, plans with respect to capital expenditures, and factors or trends affecting financial condition, liquidity or results of operations. Such statements reflect the current views of management and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including changes in prices and customer demand for our products, changes in raw material costs, pricing actions by competitors, changes in the rates of exchange of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, and general changes in the economic environment in Brazil, emerging markets or internationally. Such forward-looking statements are qualified by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations generally, and actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to such risks and uncertainties. There is no guarantee that the expected events, trends or results will actually occur.
The statements information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as at the date of this presentation and should thus be considered in the context of the circumstances prevailing at the time. They are based on many assumptions and factors, including general economic and market conditions, industry conditions, and operating factors, and are subject to change without notice. Any changes in such assumptions or factors could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. Suzano does not undertake any obligation to update any information, opinion or forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as expressly required by law. All information, opinions and forward-looking statements in this communication are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. The New Suzano An
first class assets base
Our plantations
hectares of planted and certified areas Geographically eucalyptus genetic base equivalent to 200x Manhattan
areas m³/ha/year structural harvesting and average productivity average radius inbound logistics 4 An
first class assets base
Our mills
MWm average pulp
equivalent to supply chain tons of tons of 1.4 mn market pulp paper people town
5 An
first class assets base
Our logistics
mills fully either close to shore export or railway connected pulp served
6 An
first class assets base
Paper business
pulp go-to-market Brazilian clients Brazilian integrated model brands market share¹
¹ Addressable market. 7 Fully integrated
Plantation
Mill
Railway
Port
8 Undisputable
in the pulp industry
1 Hardwood | CIF China | USD / ton Softwood | CIF China | USD / ton Top 10 and Production Capacity (M Tons) and Production Capacity (M Tons) . . Japan 600 0.6 (2%) 600 Japan 0.2 (1%) Suzano 10.9 APP + PE Other Asia 3.8 0.7 (2%) CMPC 3.7
400 400 Arauco 3.1 April 2.8 Canada Metsa
1.8 (5%)1.8 USA 6.4 (22%)
1.2 (3%)1.2 Western Europe 2.7
-
-
1.1 (3%)1.1 1.7 (4%)1.7 2.0(7%) 7.7 (27%)
1.1 (3%)1.1 9.5 (33%)
1.1 (4%)1.1 -
- UPM
– 2.5 (7%)2.5
- 2.6 –
200 - 200
1.8 (6%) 1.8 US US
Brazil – Stora Enso Indonesia 4.1 (11%)4.1 2.1
17.6 (47%) China
World
5.3 (14%)5.3 Iberia
Europe Canada
Chile Mercer 2.0
Chile/Uruguay
East EuropeEast
West. EuropeWest. East Other Ilim 1.8 0 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 9 1 Market pulp capacity production including hardwood and softwood volumes. | Source: Hawkins Wright, August 2019 Consistently cash cost R$/ton¹
709 690 668 622
2015 2016 2017 2018
¹ Cash production cost ex-downtimes. Pro forma basis of Suzano Papel e Celulose and Fibria Celulose cash production cost (R$/ton). Figures are adjusted by Brazilian inflation (IPCA) which represents R$ 104/t in 2015, R$ 52/t in 2016 and R$ 57/t in 2017. 10 Synergies Structural competitiveness boosted by
Capture Profile1
100% 90% Operational Synergies G&A Supply Chain 40% R$800MM R$900MM Forestry per year¹ Industrial
¹ Total Steady State. Dec /2019 Dec /2020 Dec /2021
12 Structural competitiveness boosted by
Selected Logistic / examples Industrial Forestry Commercial Procurement G&A
Reduction in Wood supply Routes Contractual Organizational Initiative products (SKUs) optimization Optimization parameters Structure per plant equalization adjustment
Lower consumption Wood Operational scale Lower cost in Headcount of chemicals logistics cost expansion industrial and reduction Benefit reduction forestry inputs Higher OEE¹ Transshipment and fuel costs reduction
¹ Overall equipment effectiveness 13 Adjusted Balance Average² annual deductible Accounting effect: Sheet to fair value¹ R$ 18.4 bn expenses of R$1.2 bn¹ EBT reduction
Preliminary Average3 annual fiscal Tax effect: Goodwill¹ R$ 8.1 bn deduction of R$0.8 bn¹ taxable base reduction
Total R$ 26.5 bn
¹ Based on preliminary PPA as disclosed on 2018 Financial Statements – Note 32 (ii). ² Estimate considering preliminary 10 years depreciation period. ³ Estimate considering preliminary 10 years fiscal amortization period. 14 Resulting Company mostly from international markets 3% 16% Others Specialties Net revenues (US$ billion) 8.7 7.0 6.1 6.1 Americas 5.6 Pulp
Europe
Asia 61% 20% Tissue P&W 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Note: Pro forma figures of Suzano and Fibria historical data. Note: The data represents simple sum out of the sold volumes of Suzano + Fibria and also considers Klabin’s volumes. Average exchange rate of R$ 2.35 in 2014, R$ 3.33 in 2015, R$ 3.49 in 2016, R$ 3.19 in 2017 and R$ 3.65 in 2018. 16 Adjusted EBITDA¹ and Margin¹ Operational Cash Generation² R$ and US$ million and (%) R$ and US$ million
1
25,000 60%
20,000 52% 0.9
0.8 47% 50%
20,000
0.7 16,361 15,000 40%
12,481 0.6
15,000
0.5
11,809 30%
10,000
0.4
10,000 7,988
20%
0.3
5,000
0.2 5,000 4,477 3,415 3,053 10% 2,065 0.1
0 0% 0 0 2018 LTM3Q19 2018 LTM3Q19
¹ Excludes sales from the commercial agreement with Klabin. ² Operational Cash Generation = Adjusted EBITDA less cash Sustaining CAPEX. Note: for 2018 and LTM 3Q19 data is pro forma, considering the sum of the results of the companies, or weighted average where applicable 17 ` Revenue 88% USD Hedging Policy
COGS 20% USD Operating Hedge Debt Hedge Target: up to 75% of the Target: Net debt SG&A 27% USD following 18 months 100% denominated Sustaining in USD 11% USD Current: 75% of Capex net exposure² Sensitivity¹
~ R$ 700 million EBITDA ~ R$ 600 million ¹ Sensitivity at each R$ 0.10/US$ variation Operational Cash ² Net exposure as of September 2019. Generation 18 debt profile
Pro-forma3 Amortization Schedule (US$ million)¹ average debt maturity 8,015 2,851
740 2,384 RCF Average Cost (US$)²: 467 7.463 1,518 Non-Trade 1,277 Finance Cash on 944 703 2,111 481 1.917 hand 678 558 80 310 871 797 815 Trade US$ 15.4 bn 552 478 73 367 Finance Liquidity 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 onward
¹ PTAX of 4.1644 R$/US$ (09/30/2019) 78% from 2023 onwards ² Total average cost in US$ considering the debt in BRL adjusted by the market swap curve. (vs. 77% 2Q19) 3 Liquidity position as @3Q19 19 Figures from the closing of the 2Q19 for comparison purposes. 5% Non Trade Finance 28% Related Bank Local
Counterpart Sources
72% International 45% 33% 17% International Trade Finance Local Capital and Capital Markets Related Bank Markets
Funding sources As of November 28, 2019. 20 Policies Indebtedness Net Debt/EBITDA Ratio (in US$):
1.0x to 3.0x 1.0x to 3.5x Normal Cycle Investment Cycle
Dividend The lowest between: 25% of the net income or 10% of the Operational Net Debt (US$ billion) Cash Flow Generation¹ 13.3 10
Leverage US$ (Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA)² 4.3x Sep-19³ Long-Term Target
¹ Operational Cash Flow = Adjusted EBITDA – Sustaining Capex | ² Net Debt and Leverage on Sep. 30, 2019. Considers the adjustments mentioned on amortization schedule slide. | . ³Closing rate (BRL/USD): Sep/19: R$4.16.21 Financial
Leverage framing plan
Capex limited to sustaining and commitments already made
Monetization of excess inventory of ~US$ 500 MM Commitment to Financial Policy Synergies capture: 90% in 2020
Non-core assets sale
22 Capital
Old New Capex (R$ billion) 2018 2019e 2019e Sustaining 3.9 4.0 3.8 Modernization and Expansion 2.0 0.6 0.4 Forest and Land 1.3 1.4 1.3 Port Terminals¹ 0.2 0.4 0.4
Total 7.4 6.4 5.9
¹ States of São Paulo and Maranhão. 23 Bonds One of the
G-spreads¹ in Brazil
263 270 247 253 219 219 192 173 Investment Grade
Rating Outlook
BBB- Negative
BBB- Negative BRAZIL VALE GERDAU SUZANO PETROBRAS KLABIN BRF BRASKEM
¹ Issuances with no maturity in 2026 interpolated for comparative purposes; G-spread as of December 3, 2019. Source: Bloomberg. 25 Peers Bonds Mid YTM (%)
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0 Arauco 27 (BBB-) Suzano 26 (BBB-)
3.5 CMPC 27 (BBB-)
3.0 IP 26 (BBB) 2.5
Source: Bloomberg, as of 11/28/2019 Pulp Market on global pulp demand
Global Market Pulp Demand By Grade in million tons in million tons Softwood +1.4/y +0.2/y +0.2/y +0.4/y +1.3/y 66.0 27.0 21.8 24.3 24.9 +1.2/y 58.9 55.0
42.8 2005 2015 2018 2023E
Hardwood +1.0/y +1.1/y +1.0/y 34.0 39.0 30.8 21.1
2005 2015 2018 2023E 2005 2015 2018 2023E
Source: PPPC S&D 2019. 28 Driven by end-uses
58.8 Global Market Pulp Million tons Demand Annual Demand by end use Growth until 2030 Paper and
Tissue 38% +2.8% paperboard demand average growth of
Printing 26% -0.7% & Writing
Specialty 20% +0.6%
Fluff 9% +3.3% until Packaging 7% +2.3% 2030 Breakdown
Source: PPPC S&D 2019, Poyry, Hawkins Wright, Suzano BI. 29 China became the leading consumer of tissue
Tissue Demand by main region in thousand tons
14,100 Western Europe 12,100 North America China 10,100
8,100
6,100
4,100
2,100
100 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: RISI 30 Supported by market dynamics
Chinese Market Pulp Demand Tissue Consumption per Capita Tissue Machine Closures from in million tons in kgs per year Environmental Restrictions in million tons 25.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 +1.1/y 16.0 15.7 25.3 0.6 +1.1/y 0.5 6.7 6.0 19.8 +1.1/y North West Japan Latin China 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 16.5 America Europe America
Chinese Waste Paper Imports Woodchip Supply Restrictions in million tons in million BDMT 29 25 28 23 26 Others 3 Chile 3.1 3.3 5.8 2 17 Australia 6.5 4.5 ? Southeast Asia 12.4 13.3
2005 2015 2018 2023E 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019- 2018 2023E 2023E Source: PPPC S&D 2019, RISI, Hawkins Wright, Suzano BI. 31 Chinese exposure to Hardwood chips sourcing
2009-2019YTD US dollars per BDMT, nominal prices CIF Share of pulp capacity based on imported HW chips
Imported HW chips by pulp grade Source of HW chips for the Asia-Pacific Markets, 2019YTD
Source: RISI 32 No major new capacity in the short term
1,200 2.5
(2) Europe - BHKP China - HW UPM
Uruguay (2)
1,000 )
Horizonte 2 2 ton Eldorado 800 MAPA(3)
Rizhao APP South (‘000 Maranhão Sumatra(1) 1.5 Três Montes Lagoas del Plata Guaíba II 600 APP Hainan Fray Bentos Santa Fé Klabin Nueva Veracel 1 Aldea 400 Mucuri Kerinci Chenming
CIFEurope/China (US$/ton) Aracruz Valdivia PL3 Zhanjiang - Jacarei APP Guangxi Oji Metsa Nantong 0.5
200 CapacityAdditions Pulp Pulp Prices - 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
7,650 kt 3,600 kt (1) Partially integrated production (2) Sources: Hawkins Wright, Poyry and Suzano; PIX China List Price until April 2017 and PIX China Net Price afterwards 33 (3) Gross capacity, does not consider the closure of Line 1 in Horcones plant (Source: RISI) drive production planning Hardwood (BHKP) Market Pulp Softwood (BSKP) Market Pulp Domestic Captive Excluded Domestic Captive Excluded
PM Capacity, 1000 t/a PM Capacity, 1000 t/a 3500 1600 STRONG STRONG Três Lagoas 1400 3000
1200 2500 1000 Aracruz 2000 Mucuri Imperatriz 800
1500 600 Veracel
1000 Jacareí 400
Limeira 500 200
0 0 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Technical age, years Technical age, years WEAK WEAK
34 Source: Pöyry | 2Q19 35 ESG for more value and less risk Board of a directors Sustainability Committee
a CEO Reports to
Chief Innovation and New business Strategy, HR, IT Sustainability Technology …. Officer
• Coordinate the Sustainability Strategy throughout the company Forest Social Environment Development • Integration of sustainability aspects throughout the company • Transparency and dialogue • Stakeholder relationship and engagement Instituto Corporate • Implementation social, environmental and sustainability projects Ecofuturo Sustainability • Reporting 37 Construction process April May June July August September October November December
1. GROUNDING 2 Engagement
Benchmarking External Stakeholders: • EUA Community favorability • Europe Stakeholders consultation • Brazil Suzano’s leadership interviews 3. LONG TERM GOALS JANUARY 2020
Development of long-term goals and definition of institutional commitments and positions: Carbon, Biodiversity and Conservation, Waste, Water, Productivity and Communities
3. ROADMAP 2020
Create the company's institutional roadmap and develop Sustainability strategies in conjunction with Business Units
38 - 100% of the wood used in the production process is controlled (traceability)
- Compliance with the chain of custody management systems Forest Stewardship Council® (FSC®) and Cerflor® / Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC)
- Commitment to prevent sourcing and supply of wood from: 1 2 3 4 5
Illegally harvested Wood harvested Wood harvested in Wood harvested in Wood from wood in violation of forests where high forests being forests in which traditional and conservation values converted to genetically human rights are threatened by plantations or non- modified trees management forest use activities are planted 39 Public engagement In the concept of the new economic model, there is no way to exclude the role of the forest regarding climate change
Eucalyptus plantation + native forest preservation = carbon capture
Greenhouse Gas Sequestration and Emissions 2018
Capture (tCO2e/ton) 1.7 Positive Balance Emissions (scopes 1, 2 and 3) 0.4 (capture – emissions) (1) Balance (capture – emissions) (tCO2e/ton) 1.3 +15 million tCO2e
Greenhouse inventories – GHG Protocol methodology (http://www.ghgprotocolbrasil.com.br/?locale=en)
About 90% of Company’s energy requirements based on renewable fuels (black liquor and biomass)
Committed to CDP (Climate, Water, Forest) and TCFD
40 (1) Considering production of 10.3 million tons of market pulp and 1.3 million tons of paper. Sustainable Forest Management Model
Operation takes place in exclusively and already consolidated agricultural and degraded areas
Commited to zero deforestation
Wood purchase policy and forest management plans
Aiming for biodiversity maintenance, soil ~40% of its total area devoted to conservation (~900 k hectares) productivity, water cycle preservation, carbon sequestration and stock, etc.
All Suzano industrial units are certified
- Forest Stewardship Council® (FSC®) and/or CERFLOR® / PEFC
- Traceability of 100% of the total raw material used in operations 41 Water body (rivers)
20% Evaporation Pulp and paper production Pulp and paper – final product
Water withdraw 80% 22 – 32m³/adt Recirculation of around 5 times Returns as treated effluent
- Suzano returns about 80% of the water withdrawn from the river as treated effluent.
- High efficiency in the use of water – withdraw is below the BAT of IPPC (Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control), which is within 30-50m³/adt.
42 Suzano has no genetically modified trees deployed in commercial operations at this time.
Plant biotechnology to improve forest yield and forest protection.
FuturaGene undertakes extensive biosafety evaluation of new varieties, including human and animal safety and environmental impact, under normatives determined by the National Biosafety Technical Commission (CTNBio).
Environmental impact assessment protocol of CTNBio includes studies to evaluate if the GM variety impacts the environment differently from conventional varieties.
Policy of open dialogue with multiple stakeholders with respect to the Suzano’s GM program (including NGOs, certification bodies, smallholder farmers, agricultural associations and customers).
43 - Risk and cost reduction: operational and reputational PDRT - Certification demands adherence
- Income generation and education improvement as drivers for life quality increase and financial self-sufficiency
- Open dialogue and programs jointly developed with traditional communities, NGOs, social movements, government and other companies
- Examples:
Territorial Beehives PDRT Sustainability +4,000 families 2,976 families +1,000 families Attended Attended Attended 31 communities 76 communities 111 communities Attended Attended Attended 9 different Indian R$ 1,668 Families’ ethnicities average income R$ 1,431 Families’ Indigenous communities average income R$ 881 Families’ 1,664 tons of honey production average income (30% of São Paulo state production) 44 in place
Well-balanced Board of Directors Supported by Management Up to 10 members Audit Statutory Committee Eligibility assessment Management and Finance Committee 5 independent members Innovation and Strategy Committee (above min. req. of 20%) Sustainability Committee + Talent and Compensation Committee
45 Our Future Innovation and New Businesses Consumer Goods Pulp Paper
Fluff Nanocellulose Bio fuel Geographic Organic expansion in Brazil International Expansion
Lignin Dissolving Pulp Bio Composites Portfolio expansion M&A
47 48 Backup 2018 2019 2020 Mill – Pulp capacity 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 Aracruz – Mill A (ES) – 590 kt Aracruz - Mill B (ES) – 830 kt Aracruz - Mill C (ES) – 920 kt Imperatriz (MA)² – 1,650 kt Jacareí (SP) – 1,100 kt Limeira (SP)² – 690 kt Mucuri - Mill 1 (BA)² – 600 kt Mucuri - Mill 2 (BA) – 1,130 kt No downtimes Suzano (SP)² – 520 kt No downtimes Três Lagoas - Mill 1 (MS) – 1,300 kt Três Lagoas - Mill 2 (MS) – 1,950 kt Veracel (BA)¹ – 560 kt No downtimes
50 Demand Growth 2018-2030 in million tons
+80 (+1.5%/yr) 495 479 487 465 472 451 458 432 438 445 90 420 426 91 91 414 93 92 94 93 96 95 97 96 59 P&W 99 98 55 57 52 54 49 51 45 46 48 Tissue & Fluff 41 43 44
220 200 205 210 215 182 186 191 195 Containerboard 166 169 174 178
Cartonboard 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 58 59 60 61 62
Specialty 60 60 60 61 61 61 62 62 62 63 63 64 64
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Poyry, Hawkins Wright, Suzano BI 51 China’s demand of BHKP by Country in million tons
9,705 9,755 YTD 2018 (Sep) YTD 2019 (Sep) 5,656 5,626
1,981 1,939 1,733 1,710
97 80 157 254 81 146
BHKP Total Latin America Indonesia Others USA Canada Western Europe China’s Share of Market Pulp in million tons
35% 33% 16 30% 29% 28% 14 25% 26% 23% 23% 24% 12 25% 21% 22% 10 20% 17% 14% 8 15% 12% 10% 10% 6 10% 4 5% 2 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019 (Oct) Eucalyptus Hardwood Total % Compared to the global Market Pulp
Source: PPPC – W20 and Chinese Demand Report 52 Share on total fiber consumption
4 20 40 60 80 100
Tissue Containerboard 3 Paperboard
2
Packaging 1 Uncoated Newsprint Woodfree Other
0
-1
Coated Average growth of
-2 Woodfree Estimateddemand growth until 2030(%p.a.)
-3 Emerging Markets: 2.2% p.a. Coated Uncoated Mature Markets: -0.2% p.a. Source: Poyry Mechanical (2017) Mechanical 53 65 398 413 175 Unbleached 59 Non-Wood 2 Others 6 Mechanical Fluff Newsprint 34 4 6 23 Tissue 35 Recycled Softwood P&W Integrated 20 217 110 100
BCP 59
Packaging Hardwood Virgin 34 222 Market Pulp 175 65
2018 Total Fiber Consumption Virgin Pulp Market Pulp Bleached Chemical Paper Pulp (BCP) Production
Source: Poyry, Hawkins Wright and Suzano BI 54 Suzano’s tax structure
Description and Amount Maturity
(-)Deductible accounting expense Annual deduction: R$ 1.2 bn (based on 10yr average) According to assets maturity
(a) EBT As stated in the income statement
Annual deduction: R$ 790 mn (based on 10yr average) (-)(b) Goodwill (Fibria acquisition) 2029(1) Tax benefit: ~R$ 270 mn
(+/-)(c) Exchange variation (cash) ------
(+/-)(d) Other ------
Tax base before compensations (a) + (b) + (c) + (d) - Up to 30% of tax base before compensations (e) (-) Tax loss carryforward Undefined - Balance up to sep19: R$ 1.2 billion (base) (f) Tax base Tax base before compensations – tax loss carryforward (e) ------(g) Income tax Tax base (f) * 34% ------
2024 - Mucuri line 1 and Imperatriz (h) (-) SUDENE 75% reduction of the annual payable Income Tax² 2027 – Mucuri line 2 Balance sep/2019: - PIS/COFINS: R$ 846 million (i) (-) Federal tax credits Undefined - Withholding tax (IR and CSLL): R$ 807 million - Reintegra: R$ 116 million Cash Tax Income Tax (g) – SUDENE (h) - Tax Credits (i) ¹ Based on PPA as disclosed on Financial Statements (ii) | ²Benefit does not include CSLL (Social Contribution) reduction 55 and monitoring of its forest
base and efficient firefighting mechanism
Forest monitoring towers, communication network, fire brigades, video monitoring
Fire awareness and environmental education awareness activities
Community workers and stakeholders involvement
Commitment to native forest conservation Investor Relations www.suzano.com.br/ir [email protected]