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Journal of the AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION Journal of the AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION Proceedings of the Centenary Celebration 1839 * 1939 VOLUME 35 NUMBER 209 PART II PAST PRESIDENTS izvDnuuonzu • • iuuo—icrtu "Mr. William S. Rossiter* 1922 Dr. George C. Shattuck, M.D.* Prof. Warren M. Persons* 1923 1846-1851 Dr. Louis I. Dublin 1924 Dr. Edward Jarvis, M.D.* Prof. R. E. Chaddock 1925 1852-1882 Col. Leonard P. Ayres 1926 Gen. Francis A. Walker*. 1883-1896 Dr. Edmund E. Day 1927 Col. CarrollD. Wright*.. 1897-1909 Mr. Carl Snyder 1928 Mr. S. N. D. North* 1910 Prof. Edwin B. Wilson 1929 Dr. Frederick L. Hoffman 1911 Col. Malcolm C. Rorty* 1930 Prof. Walter F. Willcox 1912 Prof. William F. Ogburn 1931 Dr. John Koren* 1913-1914 Prof. Irving Fisher 1932 Dr. E. Dana Durand 1915 Dr. Stuart A. Rice 1933 Mr. Charles P. Neill 1916 Prof. Frederick C. Mills 1934 Prof. Allyn A. Young* 1917 Prof. Willford L King 1935 Prof. Wesley C. Mitchell 1918 Dr. Joseph S. Davis. 1936 Dr. Joseph A. Hill* 1919 Dr. W. Randolph Burgen 1937 Mr. George E. Roberts 1920 Dr. R. H. Coats 1938 Prof. Carroll W. Doten 1921 Prof. Raymond Pearl 1939 * DOT wed. OFFICERS FOR THE YEAR 1939 President RAYMOND PEARL The Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, Maryland Directors MORRIS A. COPELAND HALBERT L. DUNN GEORGE 0. MAY Central Statistical Board Bureau of the Census Price, Waterhause <0 Co. Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. New York City JOSEPH S. DAVIS F. LESLIE HAYFORD WALTER W. STEWART Food Research Institute General Motors Corporation Institute for Advanced Study Stanford University, Calif. New York City Princeton, New Jersey Vice-Presidents 0. C. STINE J. FREDERIC DEWHURST Bureau of Agricultural Economics The Twentieth Century Fund Washington, D. C. New York City ALFRED J. LOTKA RODERT W. BURGESS Metropolitan Life Insurance Company Western Electric Company New York City New York City EWAN CLAQUE WILLIAM J. CARSON Social Security Board University of Pennsylvania Washington, D.C. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania JOSEPH BERKSON VERGIL D. REED Mayo Clinic Bureau of the Census Rochester, Minnesota Washington, D.C. Secretary-Treasurer and Editor FREDERICK F. STEPHAN BIO Normandy Bldg., 1626 K Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. Program Committee the Centenary Celebration E. DAXA DURAND, Chairman STUART A. RICE EDMUND S. COGSWELL WOODLIEF THOMAS JOHN DICKINSON RAYMOND PEARL, ex officio HALBERT L. DUNN FREDERICK F. STEPHAN, ex officio Committee on Arrangements for the Anniversary Meeting (The officers and counselors of the Boston Chapter) EDMUND S. COGSWELL, Chairman THEODORE H. BROWN ROSWELL F. PHELPS, Secretary HOWARD C. BALDWIN E. L. QUIRIN, Treasurer CHARLES A. BLISS OFFICERS AND EDITORS FOR THE YEAR 1940 President F. LESLIE HAYFORD General Motors Corporation New York City Directors W. LEONARD CRUM GEORGE O. MAY WALTER W. STEWART Harvard University Price, Waterhouse & Co. Institute for Advanced Study Cambridge, Massachusetts New York City Princeton, New Jersey HALBERT L. DUNN RAYMOND PEARL WILLARD L. THORP Bureau of the Census The Johns Hopkins University Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Washington, D. C. Baltimore, Maryland New York City Vice-Presidents HOWARD WHIPPLE GREEN RALPH J. WATKINS Cleveland Health Council National Resources Planning Board Cleveland, Ohio Washington, D. C. Collection and Classification of Data, and Facts and Methods Bearing upon Economics Administration of Statistical Agencies and Economic Theory GEORGE W. SNEDECOR WILLIAM A. BERRIDGE Iowa State College Metropolitan Life Insurance Company Ames, Iowa New York City Statistical and Actuarial Methods and Technique, Facts and Methods Pertaining and the Teaching of Statistics Primarily to Business NEVA R. DEARDORFF DONALD S. THOMPSON Welfare Council of New York City Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation New York City Washington, D. C. Facts and Methods Pertaining to Sociology, Social Facts and Methods Pertaining Welfare Problems, and Labor Statistics to Financial Institutions ALFRED J. LOTKA THEODORE N. BECKMAN Metropolitan Life Insurance Company Ohio State University New York City Columbus, Ohio Facts and Methods Related to Biometry, Vital Facts and Methods Pertaining to Statistics, Psychology, and Education Marketing Secretary-Treasurer and Editor Review Editor FREDERICK F. STEPHAN GLENN E. MCLAUGHLIN 210 Normandy Building 210 Normandy Building 1626 K Street, N.W. 1626 K Street, N.W. Washington, D. C. Washington, D. C. Associate Editors ROBERT W. BURGESS FRANK A. Ross GLENN E. MCLAUGHLIN Western Electric Company Syracuse University Hunter College New York City Syracuse, New York New York City WALTER F. WILLCOX THEODORE O. YNTEMA Cornell University University of Chicago Ithaca, New York Chicago, Illinois Biometrics Section Chairman Secretary HUGO MUENCH, JR. JOSEPH BERKSON Rockefeller Foundation Mayo Clinic New York City Rochester, Minnesota JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION MARCH, 1940 • This part $1.00 per copy • VOL. 35 • No. 209, PT. 2 CONTENTS The Centenary of the American Statistical Association FREDERICK F. STEPHAN 213 Program of the Centenary Anniversary Meeting 216 PROCEEDINGS OF THE ANNIVERSARY DINNER MEETING Remarks of the Presiding Officer RAYMOND PEARL 217 Remarks of the President of the Boston Chapter EDMUND S. COGSWELL 219 Greetings of the Brazilian Geographical and Statistical Institute ILDEFONSO FALCÁO 220 Lemuel Shattuck, Statist, Founder of the American Statistical Associa- tion WALTER F. WILLCOX 224 The Halfway Point DAVIS R. DEWEY 236 Program of the Centenary Celebration at the Annual Meeting .... 241 CENTENARY CELEBRATION ADDRESSES AT THE ANNUAL MEETING Census—Past and Future IIALBERT L. DUNN, M.D. 242 Statistical Trends WILLIAM F. OGBURN 252 The Next 100 Years of the American Statistical Association JOSEPH S. DAVIS 261 Greetings of the Allied Social Science Associations . JACOB VINER 273 Greetings of the Royal Statistical Society and the Canadian Political Science Association R. II. COATS 275 The Aging of Populations RAYMOND PEARL 277 HISTORICAL EXHIBITS Minutes of the First Six Meetings 298 Circular Issued by the Home Secretary 303 By Laws 305 Membership List, 1840 305 Charter 308 JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION Number 209, Pt. 2 MARCH, 1940 Volume 35 THE CENTENARY OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION A group of five men met in Boston on November 27, 1839, and de- cided to organize a statistical society. They did not have in mind the establishment of a purely local institution for, although the primitive facilities for transportation and communication available at that time prevented the development of a national organization of the kind that we now know, they drew into the membership of the society during its first year men from all the New England states, New York, and Philadelphia, and elected in addition corresponding members from New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, District of Columbia, Virginia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Arkansas. The membership reached into the southern states and westward to the frontier. The center of activities, however, was Boston, and for more than fifty years all the meetings were held in that city. In its development as a national body the American Statistical Association has grown and spread like the Nation of which it is a part. Its meetings are no longer confined to one city or one region. On the date of the 100th anniversary it was appropriate that the Association should return to the city of its birth to inaugurate its Centenary Celebration. As early as 1933 the Association undertook to prepare an invitation to the International Statistical Institute for a meeting in the United States in 1939 in conjunction with the celebration of the Association's Centenary. Later the invitation of the United States Government was extended to the Institute by President Roosevelt in accordance with a joint resolution of Congress. It was contemplated originally that a meeting of the Institute would be held in the fall of 1939, but the pre- mature adjournment of its Prague meeting during the Czechoslovakian crisis in September, 1938, delayed the formal acceptance of the invita- tion and made it desirable to shift the time of the meeting to the spring of 1940. The officers of the Association thereupon planned to arrange the Centenary Celebration in a scries of three meetings: the first in Boston on the anniversary date, the second in Philadelphia a month later as part of the annual meeting, and the third in Washington in conjunction with the meeting of the International Statistical Institute. 213 214 AMERICAN' STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION- The shadow of war fell across these plans shortly after they were formed. The officers of the International Statistical Institute post- poned indefinitely the American meeting. With very deep regret the officers of the American Statistical Association set aside the plans and preparations that had been made for the third meeting in the Centen- ary Celebration series. The following societies, institutions, and statistical bureaus were represented at the Centenary Celebration meetings or sent messages of felicitation. Many of them and a number of other scientific and statistical organizations expected to be represented at the meeting with the International Statistical Institute which was planned to be held in May 1940. Actuarial Society of America The Brookings Institution American Academy of Arts and Cambridge Philosophical Society Sciences Canadian Political Science Associa- American Academy of Political and tion Social Science Carnegie Institution of Washington American Accounting Association Cowles Commission for Research in American
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