A. P. DAWID Publications

[1] Dawid, A. P. (1970). On the limiting normality of posterior distributions. Proc. Cam. Phil. Soc. 67, 625–633. [2] Stone, M. and Dawid, A. P. (1972). Expectation consistency of inverse probability distributions. Biometrika 59, 486–489. [3] Dawid, A. P. and Stone, M. (1972). Un-Bayesian implications of improper Bayes inference in routine statistical problems. Biometrika 59, 369–375. [4] Dawid, A. P. and Stone, M. (1973). Expectation consistency and generalized Bayes inference. Ann. Statist. 1, 478–485. DOI:10.1214/aos/1176342413 [5] Dawid, A. P. (1973). Posterior expectations for large observations. Biometrika 60, 664–667. [6] Dawid, A. P., Stone, M. and Zidek, J. V. (1973). Marginalization paradoxes in Bayesian and structural inference (with Discussion). J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 35, 189–233. [7] Dawid, A. P. (1975). Invited discussion of ‘Defining the curvature of a statistical problem (with applications to second-order efficiency)’, by B. Efron. Ann. Statist. 3, 1231–1234. [8] Dawid, A. P. (1975). On the concepts of sufficiency and ancillarity in the presence of nuisance parameters. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 37, 248–258. [9] Dawid, A. P. (1976). Properties of diagnostic data distributions. Biometrics 32, 647–658. [10] Dawid, A. P. (1976). Invited discussion of ‘Plausibility inference’, by O. E. Barndorff-Nielsen. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 39, 123–125. [11] Dawid, A. P. (1977). Conformity of inference patterns. Recent Developments in Statistics, edited by J. R. Barra, B. van Cutsen, F. Brodeau and G. Romier. North-Holland Press, 245–256. [12] Dawid, A. P. (1977). Invariant distributions and analysis of variance models. Biometrika 64, 291– 297. [13] Dawid, A. P. (1977). Spherical matrix distributions and a multivariate model. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 39, 254–261. [14] Dawid, A. P. (1977). Further comments on some comments on a paper by Bradley Efron. Ann. Statist. 5, 1249. DOI:10.1214/aos/1176344011 [15] Dawid, A. P. and Dickey, J. M. (1977). Likelihood and Bayesian inference from selectively reported data. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 72, 845–850. [16] Brooks, R. J., Dawid, A. P., Galbraith, J. I., Galbraith, R. F., Smith, A. F. M. and Stone, M. (1978). A note on forecasting car ownership. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.A 141, 64–68. [17] Dawid, A. P. (1978). Extendibility of spherical matrix distributions. J. Multivariate Anal. 8, 559– 566. [18] Dawid, A. P. and Skene, A. M. (1979). Maximum likelihood estimation of observer error rates using the EM algorithm. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.C (Applied Statistics) 28, 20–28. [19] Dawid, A. P. (1979). Conditional independence in statistical theory (with Discussion). J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 41, 1–31. [20] Dawid, A. P. (1979). Some misleading arguments involving conditional independence. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 41, 249–252. [21] Dawid, A. P., Stone, M. and Zidek, J. V. (1980). Comments on Jaynes’ paper ‘Marginalization and prior probabilities’. Bayesian Analysis in Econometrics and Statistics: Essays in Honor of Harold Jeffreys, edited by A. Zellner. North-Holland Publishing Company, 79–82. [22] Dawid, A. P. (1980). Conditional independence for statistical operations. Ann. Statist. 8, 598–617. DOI:10.1214/aos/1176345011

1 [23] Dawid, A. P. (1980). A Bayesian look at nuisance parameters (with Discussion). Bayesian Statistics, edited by J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D. V. Lindley and A. F. M. Smith. University of Valencia Press, 167–184. [24] Dawid, A. P. (1980). Invited discussion of ‘Sampling and Bayes’ inference in scientiﬁc modelling and robustness’, by G. E. P. Box. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.A 143, 406–408. [25] Dawid, A. P. (1981). Some matrix-variate distribution theory: notational considerations and a Bayesian application. Biometrika 68, 265–274. [26] Dawid, A. P. and Guttman, I. (1981). Conjugate Bayesian inference for structural models. Comm. Stat.—Theory Methods A 10, 739–748. [27] Dawid, A. P. (1982). Intersubjective statistical models. Exchangeability in Probability and Statistics, edited by G. Koch and F. Spizzichino. North-Holland Publishing Company, 217–232. [28] Dawid, A. P. (1982). The well-calibrated Bayesian (with Discussion). J. Amer. Statist. Ass. 77, 605–613. Reprinted in: Probability Concepts, Dialogue and Beliefs, edited by O. F. Hamouda and J. C. R. Rowley. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. (1997), 165–173. [29] Dawid, A. P. and Stone, M. (1982). The functional-model basis of ﬁducial inference (with Discussion). Ann. Statist. 10, 1054–1074. DOI:10.1214/aos/1176345970 [30] Dawid, A. P. (1982). Invited discussion of ‘The statistical analysis of compositional data’, by J. Aitchison. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 44, 162–163. [31] Dawid, A. P. (1983). Inference, Statistical: I. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences vol. 4, edited by S. Kotz, N. L. Johnson and C. B. Read. Wiley-Interscience, 89–105. [32] Dawid, A. P. (1983). Invariant Prior Distributions. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences vol. 4, edited by S. Kotz, N. L. Johnson and C. B. Read. Wiley-Interscience, 228–236. [33] Dawid, A. P. and Smith, A. F. M., Eds. (1983). Practical Bayesian Statistics. Longman. [34] Dawid, A. P. (1984). Causal inference from messy data. (Invited discussion of ‘The nature and discovery of structure’, by J. W. Pratt and R. Schlaifer). J. Amer. Statist. Ass. 79, 22–24. Reprinted in: The Methodology of Econometrics vol. I, edited by D. J. Poirier. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. (1994), 368–370. [35] Dawid, A. P. (1984). Present position and potential developments: some personal views. Statistical theory. The prequential approach (with Discussion). J. Roy. Statist. Soc.A 147, 278–292. [36] Dawid, A. P. (1984). Invited discussion of ‘Extreme point models in Statistics’, by S. L. Lauritzen. Scand. J. Statist. 11, 85. [37] Dawid, A. P. (1985). Probability, symmetry and frequency. Brit. J. Phil. Sci. 36, 107–128. [38] Consonni, G. and Dawid, A. P. (1985). Invariant normal Bayesian linear models and experimental designs. Bayesian Statistics 2 , edited by J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D. V. Lindley and A. F. M. Smith. Elsevier Science Publishers B. V., 629–644. [39] Dawid, A. P. (1985). The impossibility of inductive inference. (Invited discussion of ‘Self-calibrating priors do not exist’, by D. Oakes.) J. Amer. Statist. Ass. 80, 340–341. [40] Consonni, G. and Dawid, A. P. (1985). Decomposition and Bayesian analysis of invariant normal linear models. Linear Algebra Appl. 70, 21–49. [41] Dawid, A. P. (1985). Invariance and independence in multivariate distribution theory. J. Multivariate Anal. 17, 304–315. [42] Dawid, A. P. (1985). Calibration-based empirical probability (with Discussion). Ann. Statist. 13, 1251–1285. DOI:10.1214/aos/1176349736 Reprinted in: Probability Concepts, Dialogue and Beliefs, edited by O. F. Hamouda and J. C. R. Rowley. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. (1997), 174–208. [43] Dickey, J. M., Dawid, A. P. and Kadane, J. B. (1986). Subjective-probability assessment methods for multivariate-t and matrix-t models. Bayesian Inference and Decision Techniques, edited by P. K. Goel and A. Zellner, Chapter 12. Elsevier Science Publishers B. V., 177–195. [44] Dawid, A. P. (1986). A Bayesian view of statistical modelling. Bayesian Inference and Decision Techniques, edited by P. K. Goel and A. Zellner, Chapter 25. Elsevier Science Publishers B. V., 391–404.

2 [45] Dawid, A. P. (1986). Probability Forecasting. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences vol. 7, edited by S. Kotz, N. L. Johnson and C. B. Read. Wiley-Interscience, 210–218. [46] Dawid, A. P. (1986). Invited discussion of ‘On the consistency of Bayes estimates’, by P. Diaconis and D. Freedman. Ann. Statist. 14, 40–41. DOI:10.1214/aos/1176349834 [47] Dawid, A. P. (1986). Invited discussion of ‘On principles and arguments to likelihood’, by M. Evans, D. A. S. Fraser and G. Monette. Can. J. Statist. 14, 196–197. [48] Dawid, A. P. and Smith, A. F. M., Eds. (1987). Practical Bayesian Statistics. (Special issue of The Statistician, vol. 36, nos. 2–3.) [49] Dawid, A. P. (1987). The difficulty about conjunction. The Statistician 36, 91–97. [50] Dawid, A. P. (1987). Invited discussion of ‘Savage revisited’, by G. Shafer. Statistical Science 1, 488–492. DOI:10.1214/ss/1177013520 [51] Dawid, A. P. (1987). Invited discussion of ‘Estimation and inference by compact coding’, by C. S. Wallace and P. R. Freeman, and ‘Stochastic complexity’, by J. Rissanen. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 49, 253–254. [52] Dawid, A. P. (1988). Symmetry models and hypotheses for structured data layouts (with Discussion). J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 50, 1–34. [53] Dawid, A. P. (1988). The infinite regress and its conjugate analysis (with Discussion). Bayesian Statistics 3 , edited by J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D. V. Lindley and A. F. M. Smith. Oxford University Press, 95–110. [54] Dawid, A. P. and Gillies, D. A. (1989). A Bayesian analysis of Hume’s argument concerning miracles. Philosophical Quarterly 39, 57–65. [55] Lauritzen, S. L., Dawid, A. P., Larsen, B. N. and Leimer, H.–G. (1990). Independence properties of directed Markov fields. Networks 20, 491–505. [56] Dawid, A. P. (1991). Fisherian inference in likelihood and prequential frames of reference (with Discussion). J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 53, 79–109. [57] Royal Statistical Society Working Party (1991). Statistics and statisticians in drug regulation in the United Kingdom. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.A 154, 413–419. [58] Hutchinson, T. A., Dawid, A. P., Spiegelhalter, D. J., Cowell, R. G. and Roden, S. (1991). Computer aids for probabilistic assessment of drug safety. I. A spreadsheet program. Drug Information Journal 25, 29–39. [59] Hutchinson, T. A., Dawid, A. P., Spiegelhalter, D. J., Cowell, R. G. and Roden, S. (1991). Computer aids for probabilistic assessment of drug safety. II. An expert system. Drug Information Journal 25, 41–48. [60] Dawid, A. P. (1991). Probability and proof: some basic concepts. Appendix to Analysis of Evidence, by T. J. Anderson and W. L. Twining. Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 389–435. [61] Cowell, R. G., Dawid, A. P., Hutchinson, T. A. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1991). A Bayesian expert system for the analysis of an adverse drug reaction. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine 3, 257–270. [62] Spiegelhalter, D. J., Dawid, A. P., Hutchinson, T. A. and Cowell, R. G. (1991). Probabilistic expert systems and graphical modelling: a case study in drug safety. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A 337, 387–405. [63] Dawid, A. P. (1992). Applications of a general propagation algorithm for probabilistic expert systems. Statistics and Computing 2, 25–36. [64] Cowell, R. G. and Dawid, A. P. (1992). Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system. Statistics and Computing 2, 37–40. [65] Dawid, A. P. (1992) Prequential data analysis. In Current Issues in Statistical Inference: Essays in Honor of D. Basu, edited by M. Ghosh and P. K. Pathak. IMS Lecture Notes–Monograph Series 17, 113–126. DOI:10.1214/lnms/1215458842 [66] Bernardo, J. M., Berger, J. O., Dawid, A. P. and Smith, A. F. M., Eds. (1992). Bayesian Statistics 4 . Oxford University Press.

3 [67] Dawid, A. P. (1992). Prequential analysis, stochastic complexity and Bayesian inference (with Discussion). Bayesian Statistics 4 , edited by J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith. Oxford University Press, 109–125. [68] Dawid, A. P. and Fang, B. Q. (1992). Conjugate Bayes discrimination with infinitely many variables. J. Mult. Anal. 41, 27–42. [69] Seillier-Moiseiwitsch, F., Sweeting, T. J. and Dawid, A. P. (1992). Prequential tests of model fit. Scand. J. Statist. 19, 45–60. [70] Dawid, A. P. (1993). Invited discussion of ‘The logic of probability’, by V. G. Vovk. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 55, 341–343. [71] Seillier-Moiseiwitsch, F. and Dawid, A. P. (1993). On testing the validity of sequential probability forecasts. J. Amer. Statist. Ass. 88, 355–359. [72] Cowell, R. G., Dawid, A. P. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1993). Sequential model criticism in probabilistic expert systems. IEEE Trans. Pattern Recognition and Machine Intelligence 15, 209–219. [73] Fang, B. Q. and Dawid, A. P. (1993). Asymptotic properties of conjugate Bayes discrete discrimination. J. Mult. Anal. 46, 83–96. [74] Spiegelhalter, D. J., Dawid, A. P., Lauritzen, S. L. and Cowell, R. G. (1993). Bayesian analysis in expert systems (with Discussion). Statistical Science 8, 219–283. DOI:10.1214/ss/1177010888 [75] Dawid, A. P. (1993). Taking prediction seriously. Bull. I. S. I. 55, Book 3, 3–13. [76] Dawid, A. P. and Wang, J. (1993). Fiducial prediction and semi-Bayesian inference. Ann. Statist. 21, 1119–1138. DOI:10.1214/aos/1176349253 [77] Dawid, A. P. and Lauritzen, S. L. (1993). Hyper Markov laws in the statistical analysis of decom- posable graphical models. Ann. Statist. 21, 1272–1317. DOI:10.1214/aos/1176349260 (Correction: Ann. Statist. 23 (1995), 1864. DOI:aos/1176324328) [78] Cowell, R. G., Dawid, A. P., Hutchinson, T. A., Roden, S. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1993). Bayesian networks for the analysis of drug safety. The Statistician 42, 369–384. [79] Dawid, A. P. (1994). Foundations of probability. Companion Encyclopedia of the History and Phi- losophy of the Mathematical Sciences, edited by I. Grattan-Guinness. Routledge, Vol. 2, 1399–1406. [80] Dawid, A. P. (1994). The island problem: coherent use of identification evidence. Chapter 11 of Aspects of Uncertainty: A Tribute to D. V. Lindley, edited by P. R. Freeman and A. F. M. Smith. J. Wiley and Sons, 159–170. [81] Dawid, A. P. (1994). Selection paradoxes of Bayesian inference. In Multivariate Analysis and its Applications, edited by T. W. Anderson, K. T. Fang and I. Olkin. IMS Lecture Notes-Monograph Series 24, 211–220. DOI:10.1214/lnms/1215463797 [82] Dawid, A. P., Kjaerulff, U. and Lauritzen, S. L. (1995). Hybrid propagation in junction trees. In Advances in Intelligent Computing — IPMU 94 , edited by B. Bouchon-Meunier, R. R. Yager and L. A. Zadeh. Springer-Verlag Lecture Notes in Computer Science 945, 87–97. [83] Dawid, A. P., DeGroot, M. H. and Mortera, J. (1995). Coherent combination of experts’ opinions (with Discussion). TEST 4, 263–313. [84] Dawid, A. P. (1995). Invited discussion of ‘Causal diagrams for empirical research’, by J. Pearl. Biometrika 82, 689–690. [85] Dawid, A. P. and Mortera, J. (1996). Coherent analysis of forensic identification evidence. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 58, 425–443. [86] Bernardo, J. M., Berger, J. O., Dawid, A. P. and Smith, A. F. M., Eds. (1996). Bayesian Statistics 5 . Oxford University Press. [87] Cowell, R. G., Dawid, A. P. and Sebastiani, P. (1996). A comparison of sequential learning methods for incomplete data. Bayesian Statistics 5 , edited by J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith. Oxford University Press, 533–541.

4 [88] Fang, B. Q. and Dawid, A. P. (1996). Comparison of full Bayes and Bayes-least squares criteria for normal discrimination. Chinese J. Applied Prob. and Stat. 12, 401–410. [89] Dawid, A. P. (1996). Invited discussion of ‘Markov random field priors for univariate density estimation’, by R. L. Wolpert and M. Lavine. In Bayesian Robustness, edited by J. O. Berger, B. Betrò,E. Moreno, L. R. Pericchi, F. Ruggeri, G. Salinetti, and L. Wasserman. IMS Lecture Notes–Monograph Series 29, 267–268. [90] Dawid, A. P. and Evett, I. W. (1997). Using a graphical method to assist the evaluation of complicated patterns of evidence. J. Forensic Sci. 42, 226–231. [91] Dawid, A. P. (1997). Prequential analysis. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Update Volume 1, edited by S. Kotz, C. B. Read and D. L. Banks. Wiley-Interscience, 464–470. [92] Dawid, A. P. (1997). Invited discussion of ‘Non-informative priors do not exist. A dialogue with JoséM. Bernardo’. J. Statist. Plan. Inf . 65, 178–180. [93] Dawid, A. P. (1998). Conditional independence. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Update Volume 2, edited by S. Kotz, C. B. Read and D. L. Banks. Wiley-Interscience, 146–155. [94] Dawid, A. P. (1998). Modelling issues in forensic inference. In 1997 ASA Proceedings, Section on Bayesian Statistics, 182–186. [95] Skouras, K. and Dawid, A. P. (1998). On efficient point prediction systems. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 60, 765–780. [96] Dawid, A. P. and Mortera, J. (1998). Forensic identification with imperfect evidence. Biometrika 85, 835–849. (Correction: Biometrika 86 (1999), 974.) [97] Dawid, A. P. and Evett, I. W. (1998). Authors’ response to ‘Commentary on Dawid, A. P. and Evett, I. W. Using a graphical method to assist the evaluation of complicated patterns of evidence. J. Forensic Sci. (1997) Mar; 42(2): 226–231.’ by Ira J. Rimson. J. Forensic Sci. 43, 251. [98] Dawid, A. P. and Studený,M. (1999). Conditional products: An alternative approach to conditional independence. In Artificial Intelligence and Statistics 99 , edited by D. Heckerman and J. Whittaker. Morgan Kaufmann, 32–40. [99] Dawid, A. P. and Vovk, V. G. (1999). Prequential probability: Principles and properties. Bernoulli 5, 125–162. http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bj/1173707098 [100] Bernardo, J. M., Berger, J. O., Dawid, A. P. and Smith, A. F. M., Eds. (1999). Bayesian Statistics 6 . Oxford University Press. [101] Dawid, A. P. and Pueschel, J. (1999). Hierarchical models for DNA profiling using heteroge- neous databases (with Discussion). Bayesian Statistics 6 , edited by J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith. Oxford University Press, 187–212. [102] Cowell, R. G., Dawid, A. P., Lauritzen, S. L. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1999). Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems. Springer, xii + 321 pp. [103] Dawid, A. P. and Sebastiani, P. (1999). Coherent dispersion criteria for optimal experimental design. Ann. Statist. 27, 65–81. DOI:10.1214/aos/1018031101 [104] Dawid, A. P. (1999). Who needs counterfactuals? Chapter 3 of Causal Models and Intelligent Data Management, edited by A. Gammerman. Springer–Verlag, 33–50. [105] Dawid, A. P., van Boxel, D. W., Mortera, J. and Pascali, V. L. (1999). Inference about disputed paternity from an incomplete pedigree using a probabilistic expert system. Bull. Int. Statist. Inst. 58, Contributed Papers Book 1, 241–242. [106] Dawid, A. P. (1999). Discussion of the papers by Rissanen and by Wallace and Dowe. (Invited discussion of ‘Hypothesis Selection and Testing by the MDL Principle’, by J. Rissanen, and ‘Minimum Message Length and Kolmogorov Complexity’, by C. S. Wallace and D. L. Dowe.) The Computer Journal 42, 323–326. [107] Skouras, K. and Dawid, A. P. (1999). On efficient probability forecasting systems. Biometrika 86, 765–784. [108] Dawid, A. P. (2000). Causal inference without counterfactuals (with Discussion). J. Amer. Statist. Ass. 95, 407–448. Reprinted without discussion in: D. Corfield and J. Williamson (Eds.), Founda- tions of Bayesianism, Kluwer Applied Logic Series (2001), 37–74.

5 [109] Dawid, A. P. (2000). Invited discussion of ‘The Philosophy of Statistics’, by D. V. Lindley. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.D 49, 325–326. [110] Dawid, A. P. (2001). Some variations on variation independence. In Artificial Intelligence and Statis- tics 2001 , edited by T. Jaakkola and T. Richardson. Morgan Kaufmann, 187–191. [111] Dawid, A. P. (2001). Comment on Stockmarr’s ‘Likelihood ratios for evaluating DNA evidence when the suspect is found through a database search’ (with response by A. Stockmarr). Biometrics 57, 976–980. [112] Dawid, A. P. (2001). Separoids: A mathematical framework for conditional independence and irrel- evance. Ann. Math. Artificial Intelligence 32, 335–372. [113] Dawid, A. P. and Lauritzen, S. L. (2001). Compatible prior distributions. In Bayesian Methods with Applications to Science, Policy and Official Statistics, edited by Edward George. Monographs of Official Statistics, Eurostat, 109–118. [114] Dawid, A. P., Mortera, J. and Pascali, V. L. (2001). Non-fatherhood or mutation? A probabilistic approach to parental exclusion in paternity testing. Forensic Science International 124, 55–61. [115] Fang, B. Q. and Dawid, A. P. (2002). Nonconjugate Bayesian regression on many variables. J. Statist. Plan. Inf. 103, 245–261. [116] Dawid, A. P. (2002). Counterfactuals: Help or hindrance? (Invited discussion of ‘Estimating Causal Effects’, by G. Maldonado and S. Greenland.) Int. J. Epidemiology 31, 429–430. [117] Dawid, A. P. (2002). Bayes’s theorem and weighing evidence by juries. In Bayes’s Theorem, edited by Richard Swinburne. Proc. Brit. Acad. 113, 71–90. [118] Dawid, A. P. (2002). Influence diagrams for causal modelling and inference. Intern. Statist. Rev. 70, 161–189. Corrigenda, ibid., 437. [119] Dawid, A. P. (2002). Invited discussion of ‘Chain graph models and their causal interpretations’, by S. L. Lauritzen and T. S. Richardson. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 64, 348–51. [120] Grünwald, P. D. and Dawid, A. P. (2002). Game theory, maximum generalized entropy, minimum discrepancy, robust Bayes and Pythagoras. In ITW 2002 – Proceedings of the 2002 IEEE Information Theory Workshop. ISBN 0-7803-7629-3. IEEE, Bangalore, India, 94–97. [121] Dawid, A. P., Mortera, J., Pascali, V. L. and van Boxel, D. W. (2002). Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from genetic markers. Scand. J. Statist. 29, 577–595. http://tinyurl.com/2ft4ehm [122] Dawid, A. P. (2003). An object-oriented Bayesian network for estimating mutation rates. In Proceed- ings of the Ninth International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, January 3–6 2003, Key West, Florida, edited by Christopher M. Bishop and Brendan J. Frey. ISBN 0-9727358-0-1. http://tinyurl.com/y7pj6bwj. [123] Mortera, J., Dawid, A. P. and Lauritzen, S. L. (2003). Probabilistic expert systems for DNA mixture profiling. Theor. Pop. Biol. 63, 191–205. [124] Dawid, A. P. (2003). Causal inference using influence diagrams: The problem of partial compliance (with Discussion). In Highly Structured Stochastic Systems, edited by Peter J. Green, Nils L. Hjort and Sylvia Richardson. Oxford University Press, 45–81. [125] Bernardo, J. M., Bayarri, J. M., Berger, J. O., Dawid, A. P., Heckerman, D., Smith, A. F. M. and West, M., Eds. (2003). Bayesian Statistics 7 . Oxford University Press. [126] Dawid, A. P., Mortera, J., Dobosz, M. and Pascali, V. L. (2003). Mutations and the probabilistic approach to incompatible paternity tests. In Progress in Forensic Genetics 9 (Proceedings from the 19th Congress of the International Society for Forensic Haemogenetics), International Congress Series, Vol. 1239, edited by B. Brinkmann and A. Carracedo. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, 637–638. [127] Vicard, P. and Dawid, A. P. (2004). A statistical treatment of biases affecting the estimation of mutation rates. Mutation Research 547, 19–33. [128] Dawid, A. P. (2004). Which likelihood ratio? (Comment on ‘Why the effect of prior odds should accompany the likelihood ratio when reporting DNA evidence’, by Ronald Meester and Marjan Sjerps). Law, Probability & Risk 3, 65–71. [129] Grünwald, P. D. and Dawid, A. P. (2004). Game theory, maximum entropy, minimum discrepancy, and robust Bayesian decision theory. Ann. Statist. 32, 1367–1433. DOI:10.1214/009053604000000553

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8 [163] Dawid, A. P., Twining, W. L. and Vasilaki, D., Eds. (2011). Evidence, Inference and Enquiry (Pro- ceedings of the British Academy, vol. 171). Oxford University Press, xiv + 487 pp. [164] Dawid, A. P. (2011). Introduction. In Evidence, Inference and Enquiry (Proceedings of the British Academy, vol. 171), edited by A. P. Dawid, W. L. Twining and D. Vasilaki, Chapter 1. Oxford University Press, 1–9. [165] Dawid, A. P., Hepler, A. B. and Schum, D. A. (2011). Inference networks: Bayes and Wigmore. In Evidence, Inference and Enquiry (Proceedings of the British Academy, vol. 171), edited by A. P. Dawid, W. L. Twining and D. Vasilaki, Chapter 5. Oxford University Press, 119–150. [166] Bernardo, J. M., Bayarri, J. M., Berger, J. O., Dawid, A. P., Heckerman, D., Smith, A. F. M. and West, M., Eds. (2011). Bayesian Statistics 9 . Oxford University Press, x + 706 pp. [167] Christie, M., Cliffe, A., Dawid, A. P. and Senn, S., Eds. (2011). Simplicity, Complexity and Mod- elling. J. Wiley and Sons, xiv + 205 pp. DOI:10.1002/9781119951445 [168] Christie, M., Cliffe, A., Dawid, A. P. and Senn, S. (2011). Introduction. In Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling, edited by M. Christie, A. Cliffe, A. P. Dawid and S. Senn, Chapter 1. J. Wiley and Sons, 1–9. DOI:10.1002/9781119951445.ch1 [169] Dawid, A. P. and Senn, S. (2011). Statistical model selection. In Simplicity, Complexity and Mod- elling, edited by M. Christie, A. Cliffe, A. P. Dawid and S. Senn, Chapter 2. J. Wiley and Sons, 11–33. DOI:10.1002/9781119951445.ch2 [170] Christie, M., Cliffe, A., Dawid, A. P. and Senn, S. (2011). Issues for modellers. In Simplicity, Com- plexity and Modelling, edited by M. Christie, A. Cliffe, A. P. Dawid and S. Senn, Chapter 11. J. Wiley and Sons, 187–192. DOI:10.1002/9781119951445.ch11 [171] Parry, M., Dawid, A. P. and Lauritzen, S. L. (2012). Proper local scoring rules. Ann. Statist. 40, 561–592. DOI:10.1214/12-AOS971 Available here [172] Dawid, A. P., Lauritzen, S. L. and Parry, M. (2012). Proper local scoring rules on discrete sample spaces. Ann. Statist. 40, 593–608. DOI:10.1214/12-AOS972 Available here [173] Dawid, A. P. (2012). Invited discussion of ‘Catching up faster by switching sooner: A predictive approach to adaptive estimation with an application to the AIC-BIC dilemma’, by T. van Erven, P. D. Grünwald and S. de Rooij. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 74, 397–399. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2011.01025.x [174] Berzuini, C. R., Dawid, A. P. and Bernardinelli, L., Eds. (2012). Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK, xxv + 377 pp. DOI:10.1002/9781119945710 [175] Berzuini, C. R., Dawid, A. P. and Bernardinelli, L. (2012). An overview of statistical causality. In Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications, edited by C. R. Berzuini, A. P. Dawid and L. Bernardinelli. J. Wiley and Sons, xvii–xxv. DOI:10.1002/9781119945710.fmatter [176] Dawid, A. P. (2012). The decision-theoretic approach to causal inference. In Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications, edited by C. R. Berzuini, A. P. Dawid and L. Bernardinelli, Chapter 4. J. Wiley and Sons, 25–42. DOI:10.1002/9781119945710.ch4 [177] Berzuini, C. R,, Dawid, A. P. and Didelez, V. (2012). Assessing dynamic treatment strategies. In Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications, edited by C. R. Berzuini, A. P. Dawid and L. Bernardinelli, Chapter 8. J. Wiley and Sons, 85–100. DOI:10.1002/9781119945710.ch8

9 [178] Berzuini, C. R., Dawid, A. P., Zhang, H. and Parkes, M. (2012). Analysis of interaction for identifying causal mechanisms. In Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications, edited by C. R. Berzuini, A. P. Dawid and L. Bernardinelli, Chapter 14. J. Wiley and Sons, 192–207. DOI:10.1002/9781119945710.ch14 [179] Dawid, A. P. and Didelez, V. (2012) “Imagine a can opener”—The magic of principal stratum analysis. International Journal of Biostatistics 8 (1). DOI:10.1515/1557-4679.1391 [180] Dawid, A. P. and Musio, M. (2013). Estimation of spatial processes using local scoring rules. AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis 97, 173–179. DOI:10.1007/s10182-012-0191-8 [181] Dawid, A. P. (2013). Invited discussion of ‘A Bayesian approach to complex clinical diagnoses: A case-study in child abuse’, by Nicky Best, Deborah Ashby, Frank Dunstan, David Foreman and Neil McIntosh. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.A 176, 83–84. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2012.01050.x [182] Berzuini, C. R. and Dawid, A. P. (2013). Deep determinism and the assessment of mechanistic interaction. Biostatistics 14, 502–513. DOI:10.1093/biostatistics/kxs049 [183] Dawid, A. P. (2013). Exchangeability and its ramifications. In Bayesian Theory and Applications, edited by P. Damien, P. Dellaportas, N. G. Polson and D. A. Stephens. Oxford University Press, 19–29. http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199695607.do].ULk3A4aa9eM [184] Arrington, L., Leinhardt, Z. M. and Dawid, A. P., Eds. (2013). Beauty. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, xiv + 195 pp. DOI:10.1017/CBO9781139342421 [185] Musio, M. and Dawid, A. P. (2013). Local scoring rules: A versatile tool for inference. In Proceedings of the 59th ISI World Statistics Congress. International Statistical Institute, 1459–1464. http://2013.isiproceedings.org/Files/STS019-P3-S.pdf [186] Dawid, A. P., Faigman, D. L. and Fienberg, S. E. (2014). Fitting science into legal contexts: Assessing effects of causes or causes of effects? (with Discussion and authors’ rejoinder). Sociological Methods and Research 43, 359–421. DOI:10.1177/0049124113515188 [187] Byrne, S. P. J. and Dawid, A. P. (2014). Retrospective-prospective symmetry in the likelihood and Bayesian analysis of case-control studies. Biometrika 101, 189–204. DOI:10.1093/biomet/ast050 [188] Dawid, A. P. and Musio, M. (2014). Theory and applications of proper scoring rules. Metron 72, 169–183. DOI:10.1007/s40300-014-0039-y [189] Dawid, A. P. (2014). Invited discussion of ‘On the Birnbaum argument for the Strong Likelihood Principle’, by Deborah Mayo. Statistical Science 29, 240–241. DOI:10.1214/14-STS470 [190] Dawid, A. P. and Constantinou, P. (2014). A formal treatment of sequential ignorability. Statistics in Biosciences 6, 166–188. DOI:10.1007/s12561-014-9110-8 [191] Dawid, A. P., Faigman, D. L. and Fienberg, S. E. (2015). On the causes of effects: Response to Pearl. Sociological Methods and Research 44, 165–174. DOI:10.1177/0049124114562613 [192] Dawid, A. P. (2015). Statistical causality from a decision-theoretic perspective. Ann. Rev. Statist. Appl. 2, 273–303. DOI:10.1146/annurev-statistics-010814-020105 e-print [193] Dawid, A. P. and Musio, M. (2015). Bayesian model selection based on proper scoring rules (with Discussion). Bayesian Analysis 10, 479–521. DOI:10.1214/15-BA942

10 [194] Imrey, P. B. and Dawid, A. P. (2015). A commentary on statistical assessment of violence recidivism risk. Statistics and Public Policy 2, 25–42. DOI:10.1080/2330443X.2015.1029338 [195] Byrne, S. P. J. and Dawid, A. P. (2015). Structural Markov graph laws for Bayesian model uncertainty. The Annals of Statistics 43, 1647—1681. DOI:10.1214/15-AOS1319 [196] Baio, G. and Dawid, A. P. (2015). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 24, 615–634. DOI:10.1177/0962280211419832. Epub 2011 Sep 18. [197] Dawid, A. P., Musio, M., and Ventura, L. (2016). Minimum scoring rule inference. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 43, 123–138. DOI:10.1111/sjos.12168 [198] Berzuini, C. R. and Dawid, A. P. (2016). Stochastic mechanistic interaction. Biometrika 103, 89– 102. DOI:10.1093/biomet/asv072 [199] Dawid, A. P. (2016). Invited discussion of ‘Of quantiles and expectiles: Consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings,’ by W. Ehm, T. Gneiting, A. Jordan and F. Krüger. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.B 78, 534–5. [200] Dawid, A. P., Musio, M., and Fienberg, S. E. (2016). From statistical evidence to evidence of causality. Bayesian Analysis 11, 725–752. DOI:10.1214/15-BA968 [201] Dawid, A. P., Murtas, R. and Musio, M. (2016). Bounding the probability of causation in mediation analysis. In Topics on Methodological and Applied Statistical Inference, edited by T. Di Battista, E. Moreno and W. Racugno. Springer, 75–84. DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-44093-4. [202] Guo, H., Dawid, A. P. and Berzuini, G. M. (2016). Sufficient covariate, propensity variable and doubly robust estimation. In Statistical Causal Inferences and Their Applications in Public Health Research, edited by Hua He, Pan Wu and Ding-Geng Chen. Springer, 49–89. DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-41259-7 3 [203] Morrison, G. S., Kaye, D. H., Balding, D. J., Taylor, D., Dawid, A. P., Aitken, C. G. G., Gittelson, S., Zadora, G., Robertson, B., Willis, S., Pope, S., Neil, M., Martire, K. A., Hepler, A., Gill, R. D., Jamieson, A., de Zoete, J., Ostrum, R. B. and Caliebe, A. (2017). A comment on the PCAST report: Skip the “match”/“non-match” stage. Forensic Science International 272, e7-–e9. DOI:10.1016/j.forsciint.2016.10.018 [204] Mortera. J. and Dawid, A. P. (2016). Forensic identification then and now. Statistica Applicata 27, 145–172. [205] Dawid, A. P. (2017). On individual risk. Synthese 194, 3445–3474. http://rdcu.be/v5pV. [206] Dawid, A. P. (2017). Forensic likelihood ratio: Statistical problems and pitfalls. Science and Justice 57, 73–75. DOI:10.1016/j.scijus.2016.09.002 [207] Dawid, A. P., Musio, M. and Columbu, S. (2017). A note on Bayesian model selection for discrete data using proper scoring rules. Statistics & Probability Letters 129, 101–106. DOI:10.1016/j.spl.2017.05.010 [208] Dawid, A. P. (2017). Invited discussion of “Beyond subjective and objective in statistics”, by A. Gel- man and C. Hennig. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.A 180, 997–998. [209] Dawid, A. P., Musio, M. and Murtas, R. (2017). The probability of causation. Law, Probability and Risk, 16, 163-–179. https://academic.oup.com/lpr/article/16/4/163/4591661?guestAccessKey= fabd6f4a-071c-4313-9f69-797b519bcf56 doi:10.1093/lpr/mgx012 [210] Constantinou, P. and Dawid, A. P. (2017). Extended conditional independence and applications in causal inference. Annals of Statistics 45, 2618–2653. DOI:10.1214/16-AOS153 [211] Murtas, R., Dawid, A. P. and Musio, M. (2017). New bounds for the probability of causation in mediation analysis. arXiv:1706.04857 [212] Dawid, A. P. and Mortera. J. (2017). A note on prediction markets. Working paper 215-2017, Dipartimento di Economia dell’Universitàdegli studi Roma Tre. arXiv:1702.02502 [213] Dawid, A. P. (2018). Invited discussion of ‘Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions’, by Yuling Yao, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, and Andrew Gelman. Bayesian Analysis 13, 962–5. DOI:10.1214/17-BA1091

11 [214] Dawid, A. P. and Mortera. J. (2019). Graphical models for forensic analysis. In Handbook of Graphical Models, edited by M. Maathuis, M. Drton, S. L. Lauritzen and M. Wainwright. CRC Press, Boca Raton, 473–95. [215] Dawid, A. P. and Mortera, J. (2020). Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools (comments on “Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging” by Richard Bradley). Theory and Decision 88, 453–6. DOI:10.1007/s11238-019-09729-0 [216] Robin N. Thompson, T. DéirdreHollingsworth, Valerie Isham, Daniel Arribas-Bel, Ben Ashby, Tom Britton, Lauren Chappell, Hannah Clapham, Nik J. Cunniffe, A. Philip Dawid, Christl A. Donnelly, Rosalind Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Nigel Gilbert, Julia R. Gog, Paul Glendinning, William S. Hart, Thomas House, Matt Keeling, Istvan Z. Kiss, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Alun L. Lloyd, Emma McBryde, James McCaw, Joel C. Miller, Martina Morris, Philip D. O’Neill, Carl A. B. Pearson, Kris V. Parag, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet R. C. Pulliam, Bernard W. Silverman, Claudio J. Struchiner, Pieter Trapman, Cerian R. Webb, Denis Mollison and Olivier Restif (2020). Key questions for modelling Covid-19 exit strategies Proceedings of the Royal Society B 287 20201405. DOI:10.1098/rspb.2020.1405 [217] Columbu, S,. Mameli, V., Musio, M. and Dawid, A. P. (2020). The Hyvärinenscoring rule in Gaussian linear time series models. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 212, 126–40. DOI:10.1016/j.jspi.2020.08.004 [218] Dawid, A. P. and Mortera. J. (2020). Bayesian networks in forensic science. In Handbook of Forensic Statistics, edited by D. Banks, K. Kafadar, D. H. Kaye and M. Tackett. CRC Press, Boca Raton, 165–197. [219] Dawid, A. P, (2021). Invited discussion of ‘Testing by betting: A strategy for statistical and scientific communication’, by Glenn Shafer. J. Roy. Statist. Soc.A 184, 432–3. [220] Dawid, A. P. (2021). Decision-theoretic foundations for statistical causality. Journal of Causal In- ference 9, 39–77. DOI:10.1515/jci-2020-0008 [221] Dawid, A. P., Musio, M. and Columbu, S. (2021). Bayesian discrete model selection based on proper scoring rules. Proceedings of the 61st ISI World Statistics Congress — ISI2017 (to appear). [222] Mortera, J. and Dawid, A. P. (2021). Probability forecasts and prediction markets. In Statistics in the Public Interest—In Memory of Stephen E. Fienberg, edited by A. Carriquiry, W. Eddy and J. Tanur. Springer (to appear). [223] Dawid, A. P, and Musio, M. (2021). What can group level data tell us about individual causality? In Statistics in the Public Interest—In Memory of Stephen E. Fienberg, edited by A. Carriquiry, W. Eddy and J. Tanur. Springer (to appear). [224] Dawid, A. P. (2021). The tale wags the DAG. In Probabilistic and Causal Inference: The Works of Judea Pearl, edited by R. Dechter, H. Geffner and J. Halpern. Association for Computing Machinery (to appear). [225] Dawid, A. P., Humphreys, M. and Musio, M. (2021). Bounding causes of effects with mediators. Sociological Methods and Research (to appear). arXiv:1907.00399 [226] Dawid, A. P. (2021). Fiducial inference then and now. In Handbook on Bayesian, Fiducial and Frequentist (BFF) Inferences. Chapman and Hall (to appear). arXiv:2012.10689 [227] Dawid, A. P, and Musio, M. (2021). Effects of causes and causes of effects. Annual Review of Statistics and its Application (to appear). arXiv:2104.00119 [228] Sanders, J., Faigman, D. L., Imrey, P. B. and Dawid, A. P. (2021) Differential etiology: Inferring specific causation in the Law from group data in Science. Arizona Law Review (to appear). [229] Dawid, A. P. and Tewari. A. (2021). On learnability under general stochastic processes. Submitted to Harvard Data Science Review. arXiv:2005.07605. [230] Ben Swallow, Paul Birrell, Joshua Blake, Mark Burgman, Peter Challenor, Luc E. Coffeng, Philip Dawid, Daniela De Angelis, Michael Goldstein, Victoria Hemming, Glenn Marion, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Christopher Overton, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Lorenzo Pellis, Will Probert, Katriona Shea, Daniel Villela, and Ian R. Vernon (2021). Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Submitted to Epidemics.

Some additional Research Reports can be found at: http://tinyurl.com/2maycn/reports.html

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