ANALYSE DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS The holding of elections in the circumstances of an epi- demic is a major challenge POLIT-BAROMETER facing the country. Year 21 Issue 1 January – February 2021 At this juncture, GERB, ac- cording to sociologists, is the leading political force, but the government has exceptionally Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) low levels of confidence, and this may bring about surprises. With a greatly fragmented parliament, forming a ruling coalition will entail the agree- ment of at least three parties. FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – POLIT-BAROMETER DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS POLIT-BAROMETER Year 21 Issue 1 January – February 2021 CONTENTS Contents 1. THE POLITICAL SITUATION 2 2. CONDITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PARTY SYSTEM 4 3. PUBLIC OPINION 6 4. MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS 7 1 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – POLIT-BAROMETER 1 THE POLITICAL SITUATION In the first months of the year, the political situation On February 1st, during his report for the fourth year has been determined by two main processes - the of his term of office, President Rumen Radev -an measures against the coronavirus and the prepara- nounced that he and Vice President Iliana Iotova tions for the upcoming electoral campaign. One of would be standing for a second term. Radev said he the main challenges facing the country is holding elec- would be counting on the support of all Bulgarian tions in a pandemic. citizens and that he had not negotiated with politi- cal parties for his candidacy. Radev said he was relying In January, the President, whose duties include setting on the support of hundreds of thousands of socialists, the date for the parliamentary elections, began consul- whom he considered as his family. Radev outlined the tations with health authorities and political parties to main priorities in the country. Amongst these were identify measures to hold fair and safe elections in the strengthening the state, the rule of law and restoring circumstances of a pandemic. One of the main topics of parliamentary democracy in the country. Radev men- the consultations was the request for the government tioned that Bulgarian citizens want a change and an to quickly draw up a health protocol for the voting, in end to the viciously corrupt model of government, as order for citizens to feel safe and for the individuals evidenced by the protests in the country last year. Ac- who are quarantined not to be deprived of their right cording to the President, the parliamentary elections to vote. There is already a solution to these issues. Those this year are key to removing the current political sta- who are sick and those in quarantine will vote with mo- tus quo, and he expressed the opinion that trying to bile ballot boxes, as provided for by the Electoral Code maintain the current model of governing in the form in other similar cases. Furthermore, it was decided that of an expert government or a government of nation- the members of the election commissions should be al salvation is not a solution but behind-the-scenes vaccinated as a matter of priority. During the consulta- political machinations. Radev stated that the country tions, opposition political parties raised the issue of the needs a clear democratic reformist majority to restore fairness of the vote and fears of possible manipulation statehood, reform the prosecution and wage a vig- by the ruling party. GERB retorted that such statements orous battle against corruption. The President reaf- further erode the credibility of the election process, firmed his readiness to submit a draft amendment to which would discourage a large number of Bulgarian the constitution, and said that this would be one of his citizens from going to the polls. Opposition groups first steps in the next parliament. called for a postal vote, at least for Bulgarians abroad, saying that this would be the best solution in the cur- In early January, the Group for Monitoring Democracy, rent epidemic situation. The government rejected the the Rule of Law and Fundamental Rights of the Euro- proposal, saying such fundamental changes could not pean Parliament’s Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice be made immediately before the elections. and Home Affairs (LIBE) conducted a new hearing on Bulgaria, noting previous weaknesses in the legal or- In the end, the President issued a decree that the elec- der in the country, media freedom and the powers of tions should be held on April 4th. He called on the the Prosecutor General. MEPs were dissatisfied with government to take all the necessary measures to en- the hearing and asked new clarifying questions in writ- sure safety in the vote and to conduct an information ing. Information was requested on how many times campaign in order to avoid a low voter turnout, which the Chief Prosecutor had overturned decisions of low- would call into question the legitimacy of the next par- er-level prosecutors, whether he had suspended them liament. GERB accused Radev of choosing an unsuit- against their will, and how often he had issued written able date, as April 4th is Catholic and Armenian Easter, instructions to them in separate cases. MEPs posed the which demonstrates disrespect to this part of Bulgari- question to the prosecutor’s office as to how far the an society. Furthermore, this date would hinder voting Barcelonagate investigation had gone - an investiga- abroad, as holidays usually impose additional restric- tion, also under way in Spain, into Prime Minister Bor- tions on travel to a number of European countries. isov’s alleged involvement in money laundering. The 2 THE POLITICAL SITUATION LIBE commission also asked what is the stage of the in Europe with regard to the number of people vac- investigation of the photos from the Prime Minister’s cinated. As of February 20th, 26,000 people had been house, which show huge sums of money, as well as vaccinated with two doses. One of the reasons is the whether technical expert study of the recordings with insufficient supply of vaccines and the government’s the alleged voice of Borisov had been made, accusing decision to refuse a larger share of the vaccines of him of insulting allegations against political oppo- Pfizer-Biontech and Moderna, at the expense of As- nents. These questions are completely justified, since tra Zeneca, which is designated for mass vaccination. at the end of last year the prosecutor’s office refused The reason for choosing this vaccine is its easier stor- to initiate pre-trial proceedings, declaring that it could age. The reason for choosing this vaccine is that it is not be concluded from the recordings that a crime had easier to store. Only at the end of February did the been committed. However, the prosecutor’s office did government decide to start mass vaccination, and the not want to say whether the expertise had established so-called green corridors were provided for everyone. whether this was the voice of the Prime Minister. With Although the government has launched a massive me- regard to the photos with the wads of euros and gold dia campaign about the benefits of the vaccine, many bars, the prosecutor’s office concluded that their au- people are still afraid to receive it, with 43% not plan- thenticity could not be established. The identity of the ning to be vaccinated yet. In the last days of February, woman whio made the recordings is not clear, even the number of positive cases of coronavirus increased though from several interviews with the Prime Minis- significantly and reached nearly 2,000 on a daily basis. ter it can be concluded that he knows who she is. The question is whether the prosecutor’s office questioned Relations between Bulgaria and the Republic of North the woman and whether she has been charged. These Macedonia continue to be extremely tense. Accusa- areas of vagueness show that certain facts about this tions against Bulgaria intensified in Skopje after the case have deliberately been concealed. blocking of the start of the negotiations of the Re- public of North Macedonia for EU membership. The After the introduction of partial lockdown, the inci- Bulgarian position remained unchanged, which pro- dence of infection in the country decreased. However, voked acute reactions from the Macedonian side. A the government continues to demonstrate contradic- new attempt at normalising the dialogue and smooth- tory and chaotic measures. The delay in vaccination is ing out the conflicts may come about only after the particularly worrying, with the country ranking last parliamentary elections in Bulgaria. 3 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – POLIT-BAROMETER 2 CONDITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PARTY SYSTEM For the first time GERB will stand in a coalition in the President in the next presidential elections. Vladimirov upcoming parliamentary elections. The partner of the accused the BSP leader of an authoritarian leadership ruling party will be the Union of Democratic Forces style, which is destroying the party and leading to a de- (UDF). Despite the protests last summer and the low cline in the number of votes. He said Ninova is living in confidence in the government and Prime Minister Bor- a world of her own, with the party showing ideological isov, GERB continues to be the leading political force aimlessness and organisational chaos. in all opinion polls. The ruling party relies on a well-es- tablished client network and the state administration, Regarding governing in the future, Ninova said she which are the main electoral core of the party. GERB re- would conduct an internal party consultation about lies on a low turnout and less protest mobilisation due which formations the party should form a coalition with to the pandemic.