’s Nine in One Local Election: Which Politicians Have NineNew Lives?

Presented by Ross Darrell Feingold to the Taiwan Business Leaders Forum

29 November 2018 Macro Environment Developments

• Taiex remains in line with global markets:

2 Macro Environment Developments

• Volatile recent month:

3 Personnel & Policy Developments

• Tsai approval fell significantly pre-election.

4 Macro Environment Developments

• International support for Taiwan status in various forms mostly from US based commentary, USG speeches, USN in Taiwan Strait again. • Negative coverage of • Positive global media threat, trade coverage recently and intellectual over China threats, property theft, election. elections aftermath.

5 Personnel & Policy Developments

• Transitional justice returns w/controversies: • Transitional Justice Commission. • Referendums; government must take view. • Formosa Alliance rally fails to inspire. • Shui-bian politicking, commutation. • New cabinet honeymoon will soon end over. • Disaster management now on voters minds. • CIER this week raised 2018F GDP to 2.6%, up from 2.48% in July. • Something to watch: WTO policy change.

6 What are the Nine in One Elections?

• Administrative division type determines what voters select.

7 Election Results

• DPP support collapses across Taiwan.

8 Election Results

• Voter turnout in-line with recent elections. • Six special municipalities vs. 2014: • Mayor: 66.11% vs. 66.31%. • Councils: 66.14% vs. 66.48%. • First mayor election in 2010: 71.71%. • Remaining counties & cities vs. 2014: • Magistrates/mayors: 68.87% vs. 70.40% • Councils: 68.9% vs. 70.42%.

9 Election Results

• City close due to Yao Factor.

10 Election Results

• New Taipei in-line with polls for Hou.

11 Election Results

• Taoyuan in-line with polls for Mayor Cheng.

12 Election Results

• Taichung surprising victory margin for Lu.

13 Special Municipalities - Taichung

• followed on the voter fatigue from Mayor Hu’s long tenure (2001 to 2014) and perception that Taichung fails to reach its potential as a business, tourism center. • Unclear if Lin has addressed voter concerns. • Pollution leads to voter discontent. • Flower show and other freebies attempting to improve feelings towards Lin in the days before election. • Lu has strong networks but unclear if she can turn out the vote.

14 Election Results

• Tainan soft victory for Huang.

15 Election Results

• Han Tide clears away DPP.

16 Special Municipalities - Kaohsiung

• ’s recent election and governance success makes this an easy win for DPP. • Chen Chi-mai suffers from voter fatigue due to a long public career that began at young age and association with father’s corruption. • Han is surging in recent days with unified support among KMT and other local power centers such as agriculture, fishing associations. • Personal style vs. Chen also helps Han. • Reduced China tourism, procurement impact.

17 Cross Straits Relations • Multiple simultaneous pressure points. • Military exercises, corporates, intl orgs, criminal repatriations, high profile visits to China that Taiwan can’t compete with from US, Europe, Japan. • Golf wars. • Summits (Apec, G20, EU-Asia, Pacific Island) challenge Taiwan. • Struggle to respond to investment and residency incentive programs (overt) as well as election meddling (covert). 18 Taiwan – U.S. Relations

• Possible negative and positive outcomes. • Positive: China tensions unrelated to Taiwan (Pence speech) Pence Asia visit, US visits, nominee at State Dept, defense conference sales. • Negative: Trade, Trump-Xi-Kim, Pence speech, Pence Asia visit, Walker loss. • Taiwan fatigue. • Taiwan must understand personnel in the Trump Administration and next Congress.

19 Ten Referendums

• 7: Anti-pollution.

20 Ten Referendums

• 8. Anti-Shen Ao coal.

21 Ten Referendums

• 9: Anti-nuclear food.

22 Ten Referendums

• 10: Limit Civil Code to heterosexual marriage.

23 Ten Referendums

• 11: No sex equality ed in primary/junior schools.

24 Ten Referendums

• 12: Marriage equality outside Civil Code.

25 Ten Referendums

• 13: Taiwan as Olympic team name at Tokyo Oly.

26 Ten Referendums

• 14: Civil Code to include marriage equality. • 15: Sex equality ed in primary/junior schools.

27 Ten Referendums

• 16: Support nuclear power, eliminate 2025 nuclear free homeland law.

28 Things to Watch

• 2014 Question: New paradigm for civil society’s role? • KMT outperformance: • Changhua, Hualien, Ilan, Penghu, Kinmen. • Kaohusing, New Taipei, Taichung. • If KMT underperforms, does Wu remain chair? • If DPP under performs: • Does Tsai continue as chairwoman? • Who becomes 2020 presidential candidate? • Overall vote totals.

29 Key Political Figures

Tsai Ing-wen Lai Ching-te Chen Chu

Chen Chi-mai Su Chia-chyuan Freddy Lim

30 Key Political Figures

Ko Wen-je Wu Den-yih Han Kuo-yu ?

Lu Shiow-yen Eric Chu Presidential Candidate

31 Key Political Figures

Donald Trump Xi Jinping Lee Hsien Loong

Pope Francis Shinzo Abe Brexit Leaders

32 Ross Darrell Feingold +886 916 363 269 [email protected]

This presentation represents the individual views of the author and not his employer(s) or any other organization with which. he is affiliated.

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