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NPR10.3: a Complementary Approach to Bioterrorism Prevention

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NPR10.3: a Complementary Approach to Bioterrorism Prevention A Complementary Approach to Bioterrorism Prevention MICHAEL MAIR AND JULIE SAMIA MAIR Michael Mair, MPH, is a senior research assistant at the Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Julie Samia Mair, JD, MPH, is an assistant scientist in the Department of Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and a core faculty member of the Center for Law and the Public’s Health at Johns Hopkins and Georgetown Universities.1 ioterrorism is a particularly horrific crime, and of committing the crime, reduce the anticipated rewards the premeditation and deliberation required to expected from the crime’s commission, and remove the Bmount a successful attack make bioterrorists a excuses that justify the crime. special breed of criminal. As such, criminology theory While the rational choice perspective is usually can help to inform and shape bioterrorism prevention applied to very specific crimes (for example, bus driver efforts. Successful crime prevention strategies include robberies in a particular city, automobile thefts in a cer- those that view criminals as opportunists who search for tain parking lot, violence in a specific prison setting), the and exploit opportunities to commit crime. One “oppor- general theory that a criminal engages in a cost-benefit tunity theory,” the rational choice perspective, argues that analysis prior to committing a crime can be applied more a criminally motivated person engages in a cost-benefit broadly. 3 Terrorists associated with the September 11th analysis before committing a particular crime.2 This cost- attacks, for example, engaged in significant planning.4 benefit analysis is driven by four key considerations: They allegedly considered alternative targets and meth- 1. Perceived effort ods of attack and weighed such factors as the feasibility 2. Perceived risk of completing the attacks and the potential harm that they 3. Anticipated rewards could cause.5 4. Excuses or rationalizations. The idea that terrorists are rational actors is not If—upon consideration of these four rational choice new to national security policy. Indeed, the Bush categories—the benefits appear to outweigh the costs, the administration’s National Strategy for Homeland Secu- theory argues that the potential offender will be more likely rity recognizes that “[t]errorists are opportunistic,”— to commit the crime. The theory also suggests that by deliberately choosing targets based on perceived vulner- 6 manipulating this cost-benefit analysis, interventions can abilities. This article recommends viewing potential be designed to prevent a crime’s commission—specifically, bioterrorists as rational actors and analyzing their interventions that increase the perceived effort and risk decisionmaking processes in order to foster a deeper The Nonproliferation Review/Fall-Winter 2003 1 MICHAEL MAIR & JULIE SAMIA MAIR understanding of current bioterrorism prevention measures, not require large-scale agent production, would not be identify gaps in current measures, and identify new and constrained by long-term storage requirements, and would complementary measures. pursue low-tech (i.e., non-military) delivery systems.13 However, there is also tremendous concern that state BIOTERRORISTS AS RATIONAL ACTORS actors could supply biological weapons to non-state actors either conspiratorially or unwittingly through theft.14 For the foreseeable future, biological weapons represent one of the greatest threats to U.S. national security.7 How- COUNTERPROLIFERATION—REDUCING ever, no terrorist group or state potentially hostile to the United States is known to possess the weapons systems OPPORTUNITIES necessary to mount a significant, military-style biological Every step along a given proliferation pathway provides attack directly against the United States.8 Even if a group opportunities to prevent proliferation, although it is not or state actor had the capability, an overt attack is necessary to intervene at every step. Instead, the objec- unlikely given the overwhelming response such an attack tive is to determine where along the pathway a combina- would elicit. It is far more plausible that a biological tion of “opportunity-reducing”15 counterproliferation attack against the United States will be carried out through measures can be reasonably applied with the greatest like- bioterrorism—defined here as “a covert biological weap- lihood of affecting the potential bioterrorists’ cost-benefit ons attack by a state or non-state actor” for which attri- analysis such that producing or acquiring biological bution and retribution are extremely difficult.9 Thus, as weapons is no longer attractive. No single step must be defined, bioterrorism refers to a particular method of con- completely blocked for the strategy to be effective. For ducting a biological attack, and not to the type of attacker example, it is not necessary to attempt to block access to or the goals of the attack as do some other definitions.10 all potential biological weapon agents if the information, Acquiring or producing a biological weapon is a com- equipment, or materials necessary to turn those agents plex undertaking that requires a rational, deliberate, and into weapons cannot be acquired. The combination of systematic approach.11 For example, as shown in Figure measures should seek to: 1, the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) developed 1. Make it more difficult to produce biological a proliferation pathway for state actors seeking a military weapons (increase perceived effort) biological weapons capability.12 According to this assess- 2. Make it more likely that potential bioterrorists will be ment, proliferation has five major phases, each with mul- discovered (increase perceived risk) tiple elements: 3. Make it less likely that the desired results will be • Research and development achieved (reduce anticipated rewards) • Agent production 4. Make it more difficult for potential bioterrorists to • Munitions design, testing, and building justify their actions (remove excuses). • Delivery system acquisition Every counterproliferation measure implemented • Operational capability acquisition. raises the hurdle that must be cleared in order to produce The specific proliferation pathway undertaken biological weapons. And every time the hurdle is raised, depends, in part, on the type of bioterrorist: state actor, there are fewer potential bioterrorists who can clear the terrorist organization, lone actor, or some combination hurdle—thus reducing the bioterrorism threat. thereof. Proliferation by state actors raises special concerns because they are more likely than non-state actors to have Analysis of Current Counterproliferation access to the resources—knowledge base, technical skills, Measures financial assets, infrastructure—necessary to engage in the One way to understand current counterproliferation mea- production of both biological agents and the weapons sures is to plot them on a proliferation pathway to deter- systems to deliver them. While there would be certain mine where and how they intervene to inhibit proliferation. similarities, the proliferation pathway that non-state actors Each measure can then be analyzed to determine how it might pursue would depend on the non-state actor’s goals most affects the four rational choice categories that drive and likely more limited abilities and resources. For the potential bioterrorist’s cost-benefit analysis. While example, in comparison to state actors pursuing a military some measures may significantly affect only one category, biological weapons capability, non-state actors likely would 2 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall-Winter 2003 A COMPLEMENTARY APPROACH TO BIOTERRORISM PREVENTION FIGURE 1 OTA BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROLIFERATION PATHWAY I. Conduct Research & Development II. Produce Agent Obtain Test Develop Mass Induce Store microbial seed suitability and produce spore Micro- agent stock for for pilot-test and formation encapsulate under standard or weapon production harvest or freeze- agent refriger- novel agent purposes process agent dry ation Manipulate genetic characteristics (optional) III. Design, Test, and Build Munitions Area delivery: sprayer system Field-test Mass Fill OR produce munitions Point delivery: Stockpile cluster bomb or filled warhead munitions IV. Acquire Delivery System Integrate Adapt aircraft, munitions with artillery, missiles, etc. delivery system as necessary OR Establish logistical support network V. Acquire Operational Capability Acquire individual and collective BW defenses, Integrate including vaccines weapon systems into Develop strategic military forces and tactical BW battle plans Train troops to use OPERATIONAL BW munitions and CAPACITY operate in BW environment Source: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction, OTA-BP-ISC-115 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Priting Office, December 1993) p. 83. The Nonproliferation Review/Fall-Winter 2003 3 MICHAEL MAIR & JULIE SAMIA MAIR others may affect several of the categories simultaneously. on foreign students increases the perceived risk of devel- Therefore, the categories are more effectively conceptu- oping a bio-weapons R&D program by making it more alized as areas of influence that may overlap. likely that students who attempt to exploit loopholes in In this analysis, it is the perspective of the potential the U.S. foreign student visa system in order to acquire bioterrorist that is important,
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