and Climate Change

AS222d 20 May 2009 284 Mary Gates

James W. Murray School of Oceanography 1999 - ~$10/b University of Washington 2008 - ~$147/b

IEA World Energy Outlook - Nov 2008 (NEW) “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable — environmentally, economically, socially. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution.”

with special acknowledgement to David Rutledge (Cal Tech) Conclusions

Evidence is strong suggesting that we are reaching the time when the supply of energy (oil + gas + ) will not meet the demand.

Peak Oil has occurred or will occur soon. Why? existing oil fields are declining at ~5-7% New discoveries are not keeping up.

Coal Reserves may be significantly less than assumed by the IPCC.

Implication - For the way we live (The End of Surburbia) - For CO2 Production and Global Warming

We know enough to see that Resource Limitation needs to be an IPCC Scenario Background geology: Source rocks (Marine Carbon - plankton), Migration from source rocks to reservoir rocks Oil and Gas Traps Requirements for oil and gas to occur.

Almost all of the world has been considered. When an area of the world is shown as unexplored for oil it is because geologists have decided that it is not prospective Outline

• The 4th UN IPCC Assessment Report SRES Scenarios • Oil Reserves • Hubbert’s peak – The history of US oil production – How much oil and gas will the world produce? • The Coal Question • Discussion – Future carbon-dioxide levels and temperatures – Summary The UN Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change publishes assessment reports that reflect the scientific consensus on climate change • The 4th report was released in 2007 – Over one thousand authors – Over one thousand reviewers – Nobel Prize • Updated measurements show that the global temperature is rising 0.013C per year for the last 50 years • Report discusses climate simulations for fossil-fuel carbon- emission scenarios • There are 40 scenarios, each considered to be equally valid, with story lines and different government policies, population projections, and economic models Oil Production in the IPCC Scenarios

A1 AIM A1 ASF 80 A1 Image A1 Message A1 Minicam A1 Maria A1C AIM A1C Message A1C Minicam A1G AIM A1G Message A1G Minicam A1V1 Minicam A1V2 Minicam A1T AIM A1T Message A1T Maria A2 ASF A2 AIM A2G Image 40 A2 Message A2 Minicam A2-A1 Minicam B1 Image 28 B1 AIM B1 ASF B1 Message B1 Maria B1 Minicam B1T Message Annual Oil Production, Gb B1High Message B1High Minicam B2 Message B2 AIM B2 ASF B2 Image 0 B2 Maria B2 Minicam 2000 2050 2100 B2High Minicam B2C Maria • Gb = billions of barrels 1 barrel = 42 gallons = 159 liters • In 13 scenarios, oil production is still rising in 2100 • In none of the scenarios did oil production decrease because of resource limitation. None consider Peak Oil! • Oil production is never going to be more than today. 7 CO2 emission Scenarios

40 A1 AIM A1 ASF A1 Image A1 Message A1 Minicam A1 Maria A1C AIM A1C Message A1C Minicam A1G AIM 30 A1G Message A1G Minicam A1V1 Minicam A1V2 Minicam A1T AIM A1T Message A1T Maria A2 ASF 20 A2 AIM A2G Image A2 Message A2 Minicam A2-A1 Minicam B1 Image B1 AIM B1 ASF B1 Message B1 Maria 10 B1 Minicam B1T Message B1High Message B1High Minicam B2 Message B2 AIM B2 ASF B2 Image Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions, GtC 0 B2 Maria B2 Minicam B2High Minicam B2C Maria 2000 2050 2100

From Oil + Gas + Coal These Scenarios drive almost all climate change research What is Peak Oil?

It’s not about Reserves!

It’s all about the Production Rate!

We are not close to running out or oil OPEC Oil “Proven” Reserves!

Saudi 200 Iran Iraq Kuwait 100 UAE

Proved Reserves, Gb Reserves, Proved Not proven by anybody! 0 1980 1990 2000

• 430Gb rise in reserves, no adjustment for 193Gb produced since 1980 • These questionable reserves are 45% of world oil reserves used by IPCC! • A recent leak of Kuwait Company documents showed the actual reserves are only 48Gb (official reserves are 102Gb) • 1980 Kuwait reserves adjusted for production since then are 55Gb

From BP Statistical Review Gb = billions of barrels M. King Hubbert

• Geophysicist at the Shell lab in Houston • In 1956, he presented a paper with predictions for the peak year of US oil production A model normal distribution

Oil Fields Peak --- Regions Peak --- The World will peak

Everyone agrees that world oil will peak – controversy on the date Examples: Rapid Depletion is Normal IEA (2008) – World Oil Fields are declining at -6.7% per year Typo: Million!

US Oil Consumption today is about 20 million barrels of oil/day

ANWAR will not save us! Hubbert’s Peak

• From his 1956 paper • Hubbert drew bell-shaped curves by hand, and added up barrels by counting squares • For the larger estimate, he predicted a peak in 1970 • Hubbert has been much criticized  there is no consideration of supply and demand curves, prices, or policy, and new technologies Case Study:

Apply the Principals of Hubbert’s Model to the US to see how this works US Crude‐Oil Production

• Production is bell‐shaped, like the curves Hubbert drew • Average price after the peak is 2.6 times higher than before 18

Hubbert’s Model P = annual production Q = cummulative production to some year Plot P/Q versus Q From 1958 onward – negative trend

Oil from Lower 48 US States – Data from EIA Web Site The Logistic Curve or Rate Plot P/Q = mQ + a Q for which P/Q = 0 is 198 gigabarrels of oil.

Also called Qt (maximum cumulative production) Half of this is 99 which occurred in 1973

A model for exponential growth in a finite system Another Approach: Cumulative Oil Production

225Gb ultimate

200 . 90% exhausted in 2011

Includes 48 + Alaska 100

31Gb remaining Cumulative Production, Gb USGS/MMS assessment 189Gb 0 1900 1950 2000 2050

• EIA data from 1859 • Fit for cumulative normal gives the ultimate production and the time for 90% exhaustion Historical Projections for US Oil

McKelvey

Hubbert

• Small circles are private estimates, large circles are government • Private median is 230Gb, government median is 433Gb

• USGS = US Geological Survey (McKelvey, 1963; Gautier 1995)

• MMS = Mineral Management Service 22

Why don’t we just drill more. What about new technologies?? 1999 to 2008: Number of rigs tripled Annual price of oil increased 5x Yet US oil production decreases from 6 mb/d to 5 mb/d Can we apply this approach to estimate ultimate global oil production?

Have we reached Global Peak Oil?

Maximum Cumulative Production (Qt) Will Be 2165 Gigabarrels

½ Qt = 1083 Gb The corresponding fit of the normal curve to the data Historical Fits for World Oil and Gas Ultimate Cumulative

• Rutledge fit for ultimate production is 641Gtoe • Maximum cumulative through 2100 for an IPCC scenario is 2,600Gtoe 28

Rate Plot for World Oil and Gas .

6%

Fit is 3.2Tboe Remaining Reserves are 2.6Tboe 4% 90% exhausted in 2070 1983

2% Growth Rate for CumulativeGrowth 012 Cumulative Production, Tboe • Oil + + natural gas liquids like propane and butane • Tboe = trillion barrels of oil equivalent • UN IPCC scenarios assume 11-15Tboe is available Who are the experts that IPCC turn to? Energy Information Agency (EIA) - DOE International Energy Agency (IEA) – Paris US Geologocal Survet (USGS) - Washington

Their models for future emissions are driven by demand (not supply).

EIA, IEA and IPCC assume that supply will meet demand

The EIA forecasts in 2008 projects a 30% increase in oil production between now and 2030 (from 85 to 97 mb/d) ( = +12 mbd).

The hard truth is that increasing energy supply at all will be difficult.

To have growth we need to balance decline of exisiting fields with discovery of new oil Existing Oil Fields are in Decline

Existing oil fields are declining at -6% per year (Exxon Mobile). -4.5% per year (CERA) -8% per year (ASPO) - 6.7% per year (IEA 2008)

For 2005 to 2030 the world needs 45 mbd of new production – just to maintain flat production

The projected growth requires discovery of 45 + 12 = 57 mbd of new oil!

57 ÷ 9 = ~6+ new Saudi Arabias Urban Legend – we can drill more to get more oil Oil discoveries have been declining since 1964

The red box shows the average amount estimated to be discovered by the USGS each year between 1995 and 2025. The world’s oil provinces have been well explored. Future discoveries will be limited to smaller structures and deeper formations Economists say – as price goes up, more oil will be produced Elasticity has become virtually zero. It’s a market where supply rules.

from Kenneth Deffeyes What about coal?

There are supposed to be hundreds of years of supply of coal!

Big 3 Reserves: US (27%) Remarkably the data-quality is very poor globally Russia (17%) but especially for China and SE Asia and FSU China (13%) then India, Australia, South Africa Can we apply Hubbert approach to coal?

Höök et al (2008) We also have a big problem with coal. The Reserves may not be as large as We’ve been led to believe.

"Present estimates of coal reserves are based upon methods that have not been reviewed or revised since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970s. Recent programs to assess reserves in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually minable reserves." from the National Academy of Sciences Report on Coal, June, 2007 Another Problem is Energy Content

Types of coal (four types – different energy content) Anthracite (30 MJ/kg) Bituminous (18 – 29 MJ/kg) Sub-bituminous (8-25 MJ/kg) Lignite (5-14 MJ/kg)

The high energy coal is running short

US passed peak anthracite in 1950 peak bituminous in 1990

Total energy content of US coal peaked in 1998 Total energy content of world coal should peak in 2025 UK Coal Production

• Mt = millions of metric tons • Production is now 16 times less than the peak, while the average price after the peak is 2.4 times higher than before

• In 1913, Britain exported 27% of its production, now it imports 74% of the coal it burns 38

Rate Plot for British Coal

• Rate plot does not curve, fit to a logistic rather than normal 39

Projections vs Reserves for World Coal

Region Projection Gt Reserves Gt Eastern US 37 96 Western US w/o Montana 33 79 Montana 68 Central and South America 16 China 88 189 South Asia 68 Australia and New Zealand 50 77 Former Soviet Union 36 226 Europe 21 44 Africa 16 30 World (at 3.6boe/t) 435 (1.6Tboe) 903

• UN IPCC scenarios assume 18Tboe is available for production from D. Rutledge Where Does the IPCC Get Its Coal Numbers? World Energy Proved recoverable Additional recoverable Council survey reserves, Gt reserves, Gt

1992 1,039 702 1995 1,032 680 1998 984 3,368 2001 984 409 2004 909 449 2007 847 180

• The scenario report SRES (2000) references the 1995 and 1998 WEC surveys • Downward trend in proved recoverable reserves was noted by Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler of the German Energy Watch Group —trend

toward reporting recoverable coal and coal at working mines

• The IPCC chose to use additional recoverable reserves and they also chose 1998 (3,368Gt) instead of 1995 (680Gt) (Deffeyes’ Law) — additional

recoverable reserves are now 19 times smaller than in 1998 41

Coal Resources for the IPCC Scenarios (Tboe), from Nakicenovic

IPCC Recoverable with Rutledge Maximum Reserves IPCC technological projection scenario Identified progress use to 2100 2000 4.0 14 Proved Additional WEC Recoverable Recoverable Reserves Reserves 1.3 12 (at 3.6boe/t) 1998 4.0 13 2001 4.0 1.4 2004 3.7 1.5 2007 3.4 0.7

• IPCC scenario coal resources are based on WEC survey categories • IPCC resources have not been adjusted for the new WEC surveys 42 Many independent groups are coming to the same conclusion

Uppsala – Kjell Aleklett in 2030 (examples follow) http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Coalarticle.pdf

Energy Watch Group (EWG-Germany) Peak Coal in 2025 http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf

Institute of Energy (IFE) Kavakov and Peteves (2007) The Future of Coal http://ie.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Richard Heinberg Post Carbon Institute (book in progress) http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/195 Historical fits for Oil, Gas, and Coal Ultimate Reserves BP for oil and gas

WEC for coal

Fits for ultimate

Projection Half‐Way 2019

Cumulative oil, gas, and coal Projection

Cumulative coal

44 Future Fossil-Fuels Production

10 .

5 4.7Tboe fossil fuels 50% in 2022 remaining

1.6Tboe coal remaining

Cumulative Production, Tboe 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Comparing with the IPCC Scenarios . 2,000 .

1,000

Projection CO2 Emissions, GtC GtC Emissions, CO2 0 Cumulative Future Fossil-Fuel 2000 2050 2100

• This projection has lower emissions than any of the 40 IPCC scenarios • This is still true even with full coal reserves MAGICC Simulations for CO2 and Temperature • Written by Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Colorado • This program has been used in the IPCC assessments • Simulation parameters – IPCC “most likely value” temperature sensitivity: 3C/2CO2 concentration (“likely” range is 2.0 to 4.5)

– Aslam Khalil’s recent measurements for CH4 equilibrium concentration: 1,750ppb

– Tom Wigley’s P50 values (IPCC scenario medians) for other greenhouse gases: deforestation CO2 , N2O, NOx, VOCs, SO2, C2F6, HFCs, SF6

– Our projection for CO2 emissions from oil, gas, and coal burning. 47 Carbon-Dioxide Levels 460ppm

. 10 460

440ppm 440 . 420 400 Projection 380 5 360 50% Stretch-out for 340 Fossil Fuel Burning 320

300 ppm Concentration, CO2

Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions, GtC Emissions, GtC CO2 Fossil-Fuel 0 280 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400

• Simulations with the program MAGICC from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder • This program was used in the earlier UN IPCC Assessment Reports • profiles that come with the program are modified to use our projection for fossil-fuel emissions • profiles are business-as-usual for other greenhouse gases Simulated Temperature Rises

49 Conclusions: 1) Supply Limitation will be serious Existing scenarios and energy policies are based on emissions - not supply

2) Coal is thought of as a solution to energy needs –

This will be a disaster for climate change without CO2 sequestration. Is CO2 sequestration realistic? 3) Energy will pass climate change as the hot button issue We have to get our energy plan in order before we can move forward on climate change

4) Energy Supply will Buffer Economic recovery Recessions correl;ate with price rise

5) Security Issue: Seven nations control 75% of world’s oil exports. There will be shifts in global power and wealth

Once it is clear that oil production has peaked is there are reason to believe that exports will not be limited? Social tensions are starting to emerge.

Largely unnoticed in America are the increasingly frequent electricity shortages developing around the world.

There is a new web site devoted to keeping track of them (n=103) www.energyshortage.org

Demand is outstripping supply and the poor countries are feeling the impacts first. Important Reading that will change your outlook

Matt Simmons (2005) Twilight in the Desert

James Kunstler (2005) The Long Emergency

Jeff Rubin (2009) Why the World is About to get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and The End of Globalization

Important web-site

www.theoildrum.com Energy as a buffer on economic growth

James Hamilton (UCSD) – Recessions generally correlate with the price of oil. If energy expenditures rise faster than income, then the share of income for other things must decline

Oil Expenditures as a % of GDP