Research project hosted by the University of Glasgow’s Adam Smith Research Foundation Funded by the ESRC www.voterecology.com
ESTABLISHED CHALLENGED TRANSITIONAL DEMOCRACY DEMOCRACY STATE
UK/USA ITALY EGYPT } High Internet } Lower Internet } Decreasing penetration penetration digital divide } Internet and than European } Increasing social media average penetration of actively used } Alternative and social media during impartial } Successful presidential media cyber-activism campaigns } Determining citizen agenda by identifying unexpected search terms (Scandals/ controversial policies/social media events)
Political actors (campaign agenda)
Mainstream media (agenda setting) Citizen agenda (Search agenda) } Google Trends: visualise users’ interests over time and for specific search terms
Google Trends score } Search agenda determined by key actors } 3 categories of political actors
Activists, bloggers and opposition Individual citizens: revolutionaries Traditional political figures leaders and martyrs
2012 presidential candidates Wael Ghonim Mohammed Bou’zizi
Leaders of parties Tamarud youth organisation Khaled Said
Members of transitional government Alaa Abdel Fatah 2011 protests martyrs
Members of Constituent Assembly Bassem Youssef 2012 protests martyrs Google Trends score
www.voterecology.com Google Trends score
www.voterecology.com Google Trends score Google Trends score Average Google Trends Score perAverage Google Trend Score per KeywordKeyword “Tamarud” Jan 2011- Jan 2011"Khaled Said"- "Ahmad Shafik"“Amru Mussa ” (activist Sept 2013 (famous martyr of the revolutionSept 2013 ) (leading candidate 2012 presidential election(leading candidate 2012 presidential election)) organisation) 6.18056 1.604167 1.743061.381944
www.voterecology.com Average Google Trend Score per keyword Jan 2011- Saly Zahran (young martyr Al Beblawi (interim prime Sept 2013 killed during 2011 protests) minister of Egypt in 2013) 10.42424 9.454545
www.voterecology.com } Nexis Lexis: Egyptian news articles in a selection of 37 print media } Only four newspapers covering the campaign consistently } Number of occurrences for Names of the candidates does not reflect search peaks } Low amount of news articles addressing the major «search events» 1 March-22 May (first round of presidential campaign) Keywords total sources "Ahmad Shafik" 550 "Mohammed Morsi" 506 "Hamdeen Sabahi" 279 "Abu al Futuh" 493 "Amru Mussa" 213 "Hazem Salah Abu Ismail" 177
} Recurrent references to social media } Increase of references to opposition leaders: ◦ Little references to martyrs of protests (2011) ◦ Substantial number of references to martyrs (2012-2013) ◦ High number of references to Tamarud movement (2013) ◦ High number of references to activist Bassem Youssef (2013)
1 Jan 2012-31 Dec 2013 Keywords Total amount of sources Martyr killed "Mohammed Al Gindy" 259 during protest "Mohammed Al Gindy" and “Martyr” 18 2012
April-August 2013 Keyword total sources "Tamarud" 2802
Egyptian Search Agenda: Relationship between traditional mass media and } Political action rather participative media: than political ideology
} Decreasing interest for traditional political } mainstream media structures coverage does not reflect } Emerging political search agenda leaders active online } and likely to influence Traditional mass media search agenda relies more and more on } Potential framework for online sources fluid democracy