Author: Malcolm Gladwell

• Author: Blink • Author: The Tipping Blink: The power of thinking Point • Writer for the New without thinking Yorker • One of Time Magazine’s 100 most Rapid Cognition influential people • Canadian! • Warning for this info: oversimplified

Story of the day Kouros

• The statue that didn’t look • In 1983, an art dealer claimed he had a right… perfectly preserved Kouros which he tried • Kouros: Statue of a nude to sell to the J. Paul Getty museum for 10 male youth (left leg forward, million dollars arms at side), only about 200 • The museum proceeds slowly, running in existence, most are multiple tests on the kouros recovered badly damaged or in fragments (Greek origin)

Kouros Problem:

• Statue was made of dolomite marble and • The statue didn’t look right • One art historian first noted this while staring at the was covered by a layer of fingernails of the statue but couldn’t articulate the calcite…important because dolomite turns problem into calcite over the course of hundreds or • An expert on Greek sculpture also felt it was fake the moment she saw it but wasn’t sure why thousands of years…didn’t appear to be a • A former museum director noted that his first thought contemporary fake upon seeing the statue was “fresh”, not the expected reaction to a 2000 year old statue • The kouros was purchased by the • No one could articulate the problem, every one of these museum after a 14 month investigation experts, however, had an instinctive sense that the statue was a fake • The statue was sent to Athens to be • Soon, however, the case falls apart…the authenticity of documents called into investigated by the foremost sculpture question (postal code), incredibly careful experts examination showed that the design of the • Every expert thought something was kouros mimicked several different styles wrong on first glance but couldn’t articulate and time periods why • Later analyses showed that you could age • One expert noted that on first glance, he the surface of dolomite marble using a felt “intuitive repulsion” potato mold • Statue turned out to be a modern forgery • Still, all scientific tests on the authenticity of the statue checked out • None of this would have been discovered in the absence of “intuitive repulsion” that occurred in many the first moment they glanced at the statue

Mother always told us… An example

• Haste makes waste • Picture a gambling game in which you are • Look before you leap faced with 4 decks…two red and two blue • Stop and think • Each card in each deck either wins you • Don’t judge a book by it’s cover money or costs you money, your task is to maximize winnings and minimize losings • We’re taught that we’re better off gathering as much information as possible and spending as much time deliberating as possible…but is it the case that doing so is actually a bad idea?

An example • Most people figure out how to play after turning over 50 cards but can’t articulate the rules • What you’re not told: the red decks are a • After 80 cards, you’ve figured out the minefield…high rewards but when you game and can explain why to avoid certain lose you lose big decks • The only way to win is by taking cards • This makes sense, it’s learning…we have from the blue decks, steady payouts, low experiences, think them through, and draw penalties conclusions • How long will it take you to figure that out? • What if we measure knowledge in a different way though (similar to implicit learning) • Participants are hooked up to a machine • In a high stakes situation where a lot of that measures activity of the sweat gland, information is being taken in in a short period of below the skins in the palm of their hands time, our brain uses two very different strategies (skin conductance…responds to stress as to make sense of the world well as temperature) • 1) Conscious strategy – we think about what we’ve learned and reach a logical and definitive • Stress responses are generated to the red conclusion, but it takes us awhile to get to this decks after only 10 cards are turned over, point (slow moving) 40 cards before conscious knowledge • 2) Unconscious strategy – operates far more kicks in quickly, very smart, identifies patterns • After 10 cards people draw from the blue immediately, the only downside is we’re not aware of it deck moreso • It’s the second strategy that influenced the • People have actually figured the game out experts examining the kouros well before they know they have

The Adaptive Unconscious The Adaptive Unconscious

• The part of our brain that leaps towards • The mind operates efficiently by leaving a conclusions (not to be confused with lot of high-level sophisticated thinking to Freud’s notion of unconscious) the unconscious much like pilots planes • Essentially a giant computer that quickly can fly on autopilot and quietly processes a lot of information • Adaptive unconscious sizes up world, to allow us to function normally warns of us dangers, sets goals and • Quick decision making process initiates actions • What do you do when a truck is bearing • We tend to switch back and forth between down on you or someone throws a punch conscious and unconscious modes of at you? thinking

How quickly can you determine a Rapid cognition professor’s teaching effectiveness? • We tend to be suspicious of rapid processing • Ambady & Rosenthal (1993) due to how we’re taught to think (more research, • Students shown a 10 second, 5 second, or more tests, etc.) 2 second clip of a professor with the sound • Present purpose turned off and are asked to rate teaching – 1) To convince you that the decisions we make rapidly are often as good as those we make after a effectiveness good deal of time and thought • Ratings compared with ratings at the end – 2) To determine the situations in which our of the semester unconscious fails us (why did that museum purchase the kouros?) • No difference in ratings – 3) Snap judgments can be controlled and we can teach ourselves to make better snap judgments How rapid cognition applies Keep in mind…

• Decision making • …our unconscious is powerful, but fallible, • Attention it can be thrown off, our instinctive • Automaticity reactions can go awry • Expertise • Normally when this happens though, there’s a reason

Thin slicing: a little knowledge goes a long way • Couples seated on chairs facing each other with electrodes and sensors clipped • John Gottman, to their fingers and ears (measures heart Washington University rate, skin temperature, sweat) • Marital stability and relationship analysis • Chairs are motion sensitive to determine • Claims to be able to how much people move around assess the likelihood of • Videotape interactions in which couple is divorce just by asked to talk about a contentious issue watching brief from their marriage interactions

What can be learned in 15 SPAFF minutes? • Gottman analyzes all interactions with • Can you tell if someone’s marriage is SPAFF (specific affect), a coding system healthy/unhealthy when viewing them with 20 categories corresponding to any having a discussion about a single topic? emotion that may be expressed during the conversation (e.g. contempt is 2, anger is • To really know a couple, wouldn’t you 7, defensiveness is 10) need to see them interact over time in • Students code every second of every different situations? interaction • Gottman says no, 15 minutes is all it takes • The coded information is then added to an to predict future relationship success equation that also factors in the data from the electrodes and sensors How much can you tell from the Thin-slicing data? • If you look at one hour of interaction, • A critical aspect of rapid cognition ability to predict whether the couple will • Thin-slicing is the ability of our still be together in 15 years is 95% unconscious to find patterns in situations • If you look at 15 minutes, can still predict and behaviors based on narrow slices of with up to 90% accuracy experience • Even after viewing only 3 minutes, your • When our unconscious thin-slices, it is ability to predict marriage stability is quite doing an automated, accelerated, high unconscious version of what Gottman • How can one be so accurate with little does with his videotapes and calculations information?

Thin slicing… Expertise

• …comes about due to expertise • As people become experienced at coding • What Gottman is able to do comes about due to SPAFF, patterns of behavior jump out that his years of experience coding tapes wouldn’t be perceived otherwise (e.g., eye • Claims he can now here couples discuss things rolling, word choices, yes-but, tone) over dinner and know whether or not they’ll • What is actually being measured is make it positive and negative emotion • Our unconscious is able to thin slice for the independent of what is said…interactions same reason, lots of experience with things that appear positive can actually be very makes them automatic (like driving a car) negative

What exactly is our unconscious Expertise basing it’s decision on? • As people become experienced at coding • Fists – distinctive patterns SPAFF, patterns of behavior jump out that • A fist is a term used in Morse code, even wouldn’t be perceived otherwise (e.g., eye though dots and dashes are standard, rolling, word choices, yes-but, tone) everyone has their own specific fist – dots • What is actually being measured is and dashes are formed with various positive and negative emotion independent of what is said…interactions spacing and rhythm for each individual that appear positive can actually be very negative What exactly is our unconscious • Relationships also have fists which are expressed during interactions, one needs to basing it’s decision on? know how to pick up on them • In WW2, the British were able to learn about the • Turns out that there are shortcuts to this as well Germans by analyzing fists rather than particular • Selectivity is key (picking up on the most message content (certain operators were with important determinants) certain units and by determining their fist they • For relationships, there are 4 critical negative could pick up on where each unit was at a given predictors: defensiveness, stonewalling, time) criticism, and contempt • Critically: fists emerge naturally, your personality • Contempt is by and large the most important tends to express itself automatically and determinant of marital stability (contempt is essentially any statement of superiority, made unconsciously from a higher level)

Contempt Another example

• Contempt also correlates with the number of • If you’re going to hire someone for a job, colds a husband/wife gets in a year…being in what’s the more effective approach? the presence of contempt is so stressful it can – A) Meet with the prospective hire twice a damage your immune system week for a year • This seems to be how our unconscious works: – B) Go to his/her house and spend a half hour when we leap to a decision our unconscious is looking around throwing out irrelevant info and zeroing in on the important stuff • As a result thin-slicing is sometimes better than • We’re generally taught that option a) is deliberative/exhaustive thinking correct

Samuel Gosling Gosling et al., 2002

• Uses the Big 5 • 80 subjects…all of whom fill out a questionnaire inventory to study tapping into the Big Five personality • The subjects then select their closest friends to – Extraversion fill out the same questionnaire describing them – Agreeableness • Then the experimenter took strangers who had never met the students, gave them the same – Conscientiousness questionnaire (is this person talkative, original, – Emotion Stability reserved, etc.), and asked them to fill it out after – Openness to new spending 15 minutes looking through the experiences subjects dorm room (no interaction with individual) How does everyone do What can a bedroom tell you?

• Friends describe us accurately • Three kinds of clues about personality • How about strangers: – Not good at determining extraversion (really need to – Deliberate expressions of how we’d like to be interact with someone to determine this) viewed by the world (e.g., framed degree) – Slightly less better than friends at determining – Behavioural residue: inadvertent clues such agreeableness (also probably need to interact with someone) as dirty laundry or alphabetized CD collection – For the other three scales though (conscientiousness, – Thought and feeling regulators: scented emotional stability, openness to experience), strangers are actually more accurate than friends candles, decorative pillows – Overall, strangers rate us better than our friends do – This is another example of thin-slicing

More importantly, what information • People aren’t very good at being objective do you not get from a bedroom? about their own personality, they may lie, so we ask questions to get around this • When you meet someone face to face a rather than straightforward questions (e.g. number of confusing, complicated, and what is your marriage like) irrelevant pieces of information can be obtained which mess up your judgment (e.g., if you met a football player who was • Strangers can cut through this by simply a philosopher, could you get by the dumb observing your room, Gottman cuts jock bias…what if you just saw his through this by examining bookcase?) positive/negative nature of interactions independent of content of interactions

Yet another example Why people sue

• Imagine you work for an insurance • Often times shoddy medical care goes company that sells medical malpractice unpunished, people sue because of protection…it is your job to determine shoddy medical care plus something else which physicians are most likely to be sued….do you • Physician demeanor: physicians who take – A) examine each physicians’ training and more time answering questions in a credentials, analyze past performance for friendly/gentle tone are rarely sued, those errors who are rushed, blunt, or unclear, are – B) Listen in on brief snippets between each often sued doctor and his/her patient Levinson et al., 1997 Ambady et al., 2002

• What differentiates surgeons who have never • Took two 10-second clips of interactions been sued relative to those who have been sued between physicians and patients twice or more? • Surgeons who have never been sued… • Content filtered the clips to remove ability – Spend about 3 minutes more with each patient to recognize individual words, but – More likely to make orienting comments (first I’ll do intonation, pitch, and rhythm are this, then that) – More likely to engage in active listening preserved – Importantly, however, no difference in quality of information/care given by those who have been sued relative to those who have not

Ambady et al., 2002 Thin slicing

• Subjects asked to rate each clip for warth, • Related to other concepts hostility, dominance, and anxiousness – Court sense in basketball • From those ratings you can predict, with a – Love at first sight high probability, who will be sued – Coup d’oeil in the military (power of the glance) – “I knew the moment I saw him/her…” – Internet dating, speed dating

The secret life of snap decisions Expertise

• Vic Braden, former professional tennis player • Braden has become so expert at picking and top tennis coach up the subtle nuances of tennis he has this • While watching tennis knowledge but is frustrated that he can’t matches, knows instantly when a player is about to verbalize why double fault • What does this tell us about snap • Has no idea why he knows this even though he can judgments? correctly call out double – They are almost entirely unconscious (e.g. the faults almost every time they are about to happen (16 out gambling experiment where people learn of 17 over the course of one about the red decks way before they are weekend) consciously aware that they learned) Kouros • George Soros, a billionaire investor, used to say he’d change positions on the • When the experts knew the kouros was a fake, market when his back hurts they couldn’t verbalize why either • How many investors would you trust who • Art critic Bernard Berenson: “distressed told you they based things on their sore colleagues due to his inability to articulate how he could clearly see the defects and back? inconsistencies of a particular work” • Snap judgments take place behind a – His common explanations locked door that we don’t deal with very • My stomach felt wrong • I had a ringing in my ears well (seemingly no key) • I was struck by momentary depression • I felt woozy and off balance

Okay, so our unconscious makes snap judgments, is there any way for Bargh et al., 1996 us to influence our unconscious? • Scrambled sentence test: create one four word sentence • John Bargh from each set of words as quickly as possible – him was worried she always • Social Psychologist – from are Florida oranges temperature – ball the throw toss silently • Has investigated – shoes give replace old the priming effects on – he observes occasionally people watches – be will sweat lonely they behaviour – sky the seamless gray – should now withdraw forgetful we – us bingo sing play let – sunlight makes temperature wrinkle raisins

Bargh et al., 1996 Bargh et al., 1996

• The sentence task is actually • Scrambled sentence test: create one four word sentence from each set of words as quickly as possible irrelevant…interest is in how fast/slow – him was worried she always people leave the experiment relative to – from are Florida oranges temperature how fast/slow they came – ball the throw toss silently – shoes give replace old the • After the sentence task people take longer – he observes occasionally people watches walking back down the hall than they took – be will sweat lonely they walking in – sky the seamless gray – should now withdraw forgetful we • Priming “old” is supposed to have made – us bingo sing play let people walk slowly – sunlight makes temperature wrinkle raisins Works for other behaviours also Related findings

• Sentence test has words related to either being • Subjects asked to answer 42 Trivial Pursuit rude (aggressive, bold, rude, bother, disturb) or questions polite (respect, considerate, patiently, yield, polite) • Prior to this, half of all subjects are asked to • After task, subjects are asked to walk down the think about what it would mean to be a professor hall and get the experimenter who is engaged in and write down everything that came to mind a conversation with someone else • Other half of subjects were asked to think about • Those primed to be rude interrupted around 5 minutes into the conversation soccer hooligans • Those primed to be polite never interrupted 82% • “Professor” group outperforms “hooligan” group of the time (10 minute max) on trivia questions (56% vs. 42% correct)

Steele & Aronson Free will?

• Subjects: black college students • Is free will an illusion? The results • Test: 20 questions drawn from the GRE suggest that much of the time we operate • Prior to the GRE questions, half of all subjects are asked to identify race (primes stereotypes of on autopilot and we’re influenced by far African Americans?) more variables than we could imagine • People asked about their race do half as well as subjects who weren’t • Is there an advantage to operating like • All subjects indicated that it hadn’t bothered this? them to be asked about their race pre-test • In all of these examples people have no idea the prime is influencing them

What if our unconscious didn’t act Free will? this way? • Yes, we’re hardwired to perform optimally • Damasio has studied a patient with damage to across environments, if we carefully the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (area critical analyzed everything around us we’d never to decision making) get anything done…your unconscious • Highly intelligent, high functioning individual who picks up on clues about the environment lacks judgment and tells you how to act accordingly so • Takes about 30 minutes to decide between two potential dates for an appointment (considers you needn’t waste previous engagements, proximity to other time/resources…unconscious is like a engagements, weather, etc.) mental valet The Warren Harding Error (tall dark Gambling experiment and handsome) • In 1899, Harding was a • When this patient does the red deck/blue senator in Ohio who was deck experiment he learns the same as met and befriended by political advisor Harry everyone else but don’t show any of the Daugherty physiological symptoms early on (e.g. • Daugherty’s initial sweaty palms) impression was that Harding would make a good • Can’t verbalize at any point why the blue president (based on this looks, tall, chiseled, deck is better either handsome) • Lacks the same mental valet the rest of it • Many others agreed, thought he looked noble has and it affects performance (Roman)

The Warren Harding Error (tall dark He looked like a presidential and handsome) candidate • Problem: Harding was not very intelligent • Despite his shortcomings, he was (pompous and not particularly well continuously pushed up the political ladder spoken), spent most of his time playing based on his look poker and golf, and had a voracious • Unfortunately, Harding is considered on of sexual appetite that got him into a fair the worst presidents in American history amount of political trouble • This is the dark and unfortunate side of thin slicing

The dark side of thin slicing The dark side of thin slicing

• Though thin slicing can be helpful, it must • In order to take rapid cognition seriously, also be acknowledged that it is not we need to accept the fact that in some infallible situations, rapid cognition leads us astray • Thin slicing is at the root of most • Numerous researchers have begun prejudice/discrimination examining these unconscious/implicit • It’s why picking a job candidate is difficult associations which influence our beliefs and why sometimes, very mediocre people end up in positions of enormous behaviour responsibility The Implicit Association Test (IAT) Example 1

• Based on the idea that we make Male Female connections more quickly between pairs of ______John ______Bob ______ideas that already related in our minds ______Amy ______than we do pairs that are unfamiliar to us ______Holly ______• How do we use this knowledge to test ______Joan ______implicit associations? ______Derek ______Peggy ______Jason ______Lisa ______

Example 2 Example 3 Male or career Female or family Male or family Female or career ______Lisa ______Babies ______Matt ______Sarah ______Laundry ______Derek ______John ______Employment ______Merchant ______Merchant ______Bob ______Holly ______Home ______Home ______Holly ______Lisa ______Joan ______Corporation ______Jason ______Matt ______Kitchen ______Entrepreneur ______Parents ______Cousins ______Sarah ______Parents ______Derek ______Domestic ______Siblings ______Joan ______

Another example IAT White or bad Black or good ______Hurt ______Evil ______• People tend to be much faster completing ______Glorious ______example 2 relative to example 3 because most people have stronger associations between maleness and career-oriented concepts than we do between femaleness and career (and ______femaleness correlates more with family concepts ______Wonderful ______Mean ______than maleness) • The IAT gets to the bottom of deeply held associations that people may try to disguise otherwise ______Another example White or good Black or bad Racism? ______Hurt ______Evil ______• More than 80% of those tested have pro-white ______Glorious ______associations • Even if you don’t feel as though you are prejudiced, there is a strong inclination for black ______to be associated with bad on this test ______Wonderful ______• Our attitudes towards race/gender operates on ______Mean ______two levels – 1) conscious – what we choose to believe, stated values – 2) unconscious – immediate, automatic associations ______that express themselves before we have time to think

What does this mean? IAT

• Unconscious attitudes may be completely • More than just an abstract measure of inconsistent with our stated conscious values attitudes, a predictor of how we would act • Most African Americans that take this test (more in spontaneous situations than 50%) have more pro-white associations than pro-black associations • Example, walking down a dark alley at night • You don’t choose to make positive associations with the dominant group, but you’re mostly acquired to (influence of society, media, etc.)

IAT Career guidance for a thin slicer

• Other interesting related findings: tall • Car salesman – customers vary from being people enact positive associations insecure and nervous to knowledgeable and – Fortune 500 CEOs tend to be 2-3 inches taller confident to clueless…salesmen needs to on average than the general population determine which it is quickly to determine sales • Could this be one of the reasons that there approach are fewer women/minorities in positions of • To successfully do this though, you need to power? constantly make snap judgments while • Note, this is not a measure of deliberate simultaneously overriding stereotypes based on prejudice, it is unconscious bias that is customer appearance difficult to overcome How does race affect car price? How does race affect car price?

• Ayres, 2001 • Initial offer: white men ($725 above invoice), • Sends a number of confederates to car white women ($935 above invoice), black women ($1195 above invoice), black men dealerships, all told to dress the same and ($1687) above invoice interact the same, only thing that differs is • Popular explanation: black women and men are race being viewed as stupid/naïve and are being • When an interest is expressed in buying a suckered car by a young college educated • This doesn’t hold as all confederates present professional, does race matter? themselves as college age and successful, might instead be something unconscious

Can we overcome these biases? Hey, let’s make fun of the US army!

• Think of Martin Luther King • What do you • By preemptively associating positive suppose is better? things with African American, the Millions of dollars commonly observed result on the IAT can worth of technology be changed/reversed and report and • We can change our first research….or rapid impressions/instincts via top down control, cognition? we need to know when to do this though • Meet Paul Van and when no to Riper

Van Riper The scenario

• Incredibly well respected military veteran • A rogue military commander has broken away • Multiple tours of Vietnam in a variety of from his government somewhere in the capacities Persian Gulf and is threatening to engulf the • Known for his unorthodox methods entire region in war. He has a considerable power base from strong religious and ethnic • In 2000, Van Riper (retired) was loyalties, and he is harboring and sponsoring approached by the Pentagon to take part four different terrorist organizations…he is in the largest and most expensive (cost virulently anti-American 250 million dollars) War Games ever, Millennium Challenge ‘02 • Paul Van Riper was asked to play the rogue commander War games War games • War games are run by the Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) • Pentagon wanted to test new and radical • JFCOM has at its disposal, hundreds of military ideas about how to go to battle analysts and specialists and software experts • The belief was that future wars will not be • For a good deal of time prior to the game, military vs. military…the decisive factor JFCOM performed a number of spiral exercises would be how you take apart your enemy’s to prepare them system (war making capability is • USA = blue team, Enemy = red team connected to the economic system, which is connected to the cultural system, which • As it turned out, these war games were actually is connected with personal relationships a rehearsal for an upcoming war so blue team wanted everything to go perfectly

The centerpiece Van Riper • …was fairly convinced that all of blue • JFCOM devised the Operational Net team’s equipment was useless because it Assessment – formal decision making tool is impossible to lift “the fog of war” (idea that breaks the enemy down into a series of that things rarely proceed in a rational systems—military, economic, social, manner) political—and creates a matrix showing how • War is unpredictable, messy, and these systems are interrelated and which nonlinear, all those millions of dollars of links are most vulnerable tools shouldn’t matter • Also had: a real time map of combat • He was once involved in the creation of situations, tools for joint interactive planning, JFCOM tools and hated it…took too long tons of information/intelligence…red team had none of this • To Van Riper, war involves snap decisions that aren’t always rational

Army vs. Stockbrokers Army vs. Stockbrokers

• Van Riper once visited the Mercantile • On a whim, Van Riper took some Exchange in New York to visit the trading stockbrokers to a military base for war floor games and despite a lack of training, the • What he saw reminded him of military stockbrokers did amazingly well command posts during war • The games required decisive, rapid-fire decisions under conditions of high pressure and limited information • Gives credence to the notion that thinking things through isn’t always good Millennium challenge Millennium challenge

• Not just a battle between armies, a battle • Unfortunately for the blue team, Van Riper between philosophies didn’t act in the predicted manner • On Day 1, blue team poured tens of thousands • Blue team knocked out the red team’s of soldiers in the Persian Gulf, parked an aircraft microwave towers and fiber optic lines on carrier battle group outside the red team’s home the assumption that Red Team would country, and issued an eight-point ultimatum to have to use satellite communications and Van Riper, #8 being to surrender cell phones (which blue team could • Blue team acted with confidence because the monitor) Operational Net Assessment matrixes told them the red team’s vulnerabilities • Van Riper, not being an idiot, used couriers on motorcycles and hidden messages inside prayers

Millennium challenge Millennium challenge

• To get airplanes off the airfield, Van Riper • Then, without warning, he bombarded them in used an old WW2 strategy whereby he used an hour long assault with a ton of cruise lighting systems for signals missiles • Van Riper was not intimidated and blue team • When the attack ended, sixteen American did not know how to react ships were sunk…had this been a real war, • On Day 2, Van Riper put a small fleet of boats 20000 Americans would have been killed in the Persian Gulf to track the ships of the before their army ever fired a shot invading blue team • How to explain the defeat of the blue team with all their technology?

The structure of spontaneity The structure of spontaneity

• To answer this question, consider another group • Improv troupes actually rehearse to an insane of people, about as far away from the military as degree, though they can’t rehearse specific you can get…improv troupes ideas, they can rehearse general rules that will • Improv troupes perform a series of scenes/plays make improv proceed as smoothly as possible which can last up to an hour based on suggestions of the audience • It’s like basketball…basketball is an intricate high speed game filled with split second, • It’s unrehearsed, completely spontaneous and oftentimes, very funny spontaneous decisions • To the uninitiated, this process seems terrifying, • That spontaneity is possible only when everyone but in actuality, it isn’t nearly as random and engages in hours of repetitive and structured chaotic as it appears practice Structure Improv

• This is the key to improv as well as • Certain rules make improv possible understanding why red team did well in • The most important rule is the idea of Millennium challenge agreement…characters have to accept • SPONTANEITY ISN’T RANDOM! everything that happens to them • How good people’s decisions are under the fast-moving, high-stress conditions of rapid cognition is a function of training and rules and rehearsal

An example of a good improv scene An example of a bad improv scene • A: Augh! • B: Whatever is it, man? • A: I’m having trouble with my leg • A: It’s my leg, Doctor • B: I’m afraid I’ll have to amputate • B: This looks nasty, I shall have to amputate • A: You can’t do that, Doctor • A: It’s the one you amputated last time • B: You mean you’ve got pain in your wooden leg? • B: Why not? • A: Yes, Doctor • A: Because I’m rather attached to it • B: You know what this means? • B: Come on, man • A: Not woodworm? • A: I’ve got this growth on my arm to • B: Yes, we’ll have to remove it before it spreads to the rest of you • In this example, Actor A violated the rule of agreement • (A’s chair collapses) (“You can’t do that Doctor”) • A: My God, it’s spreading to the furniture • Joke was funny, scene wasn’t • This scene works because the rule of agreement is followed

Improv How this applies to Van Riper

• In improv, the humor arises out of how • Van Riper instructed the red team to be “in steadfastly the participants adhere to the command and out of control” rule that no suggestion can be denied • Overall guidance provided by Van Riper but the forces in the field do not depend on orders coming from the top • By following rules, one creates the • Rather than overwhelming his operatives conditions for successful spontaneity with any of the technology blue team used, they used the wisdom, experience and good judgment of people on his team Another example of why rapid cognition Disadvantage of this approach can be better than thought • 1) Van Riper didn’t have a clear idea of • If I asked you to pick out of a lineup, an what his troops were up to individual who sat next to you on the bus earlier in the week, you could do it very easily • 2) He placed a lot of trust in his • This is an example of unconscious cognition, subordinates you don’t have to think about it, faces just pop • 3) It’s a messy way to make decisions into our mind • What if instead I ask you to write down as much detail about this person as possible (e.g., hair • Huge advantage: this method of colour, clothing, etc.) before identifying them in leadership is like the rule of agreement in the lineup? improv, it enables rapid cognition

Verbal overshadowing Verbal overshadowing • Your brain has a part (the left hemisphere) • Now you do far worse on that thinks in words and a part (the right the lineup task hemisphere) that thinks in pictures (note: • Describing a face impairs this is a gross oversimplification) your otherwise effortless • When forced to describe something you ability to recognize a face interfere with visual memory and moved your processing from the right to left • This is referred to as hemisphere verbal overshadowing • This is problematic for faces since we are • Jonathan Schooler (UBC) better at recognizing them than describing them

An example Verbal overshadowing

• If I showed you pictures of the following people, • Verbal overshadowing actually extends beyond you would have no difficulty recognizing them faces…consider the following problem: – Michael Jordan • A man and his son are in a car accident. The – Britney Spears father is killed and the son is rushed to the – Albert Einstein emergency room. Upon arrival, the attending – Marilyn Monroe –Brad Pitt doctor looks at the child and gasps, “This child is my son”…who is the doctor? • But if I gave you just a description of each • This is an insight puzzle, can’t be worked person’s face, you would probably have no idea through systematically, you only get it in a who I was describing moment of insight Here’s another Schooler

• A giant inverted steel pyramid is perfectly • Schooler ran an experiment with two groups…one group was asked to write down balanced on its point. Any movement of everything they could remember about how they the pyramid will cause it to topple over. were trying to solve the problem Underneath the pyramid is a $100 • People asked to explain themselves solved 30% fewer problems than those who weren’t bill…how do you remove the bill without • Forcing someone to write down there thoughts disturbing the pyramid? decreases their chance of having a flash of insight • Again, this is an insight puzzle • With logic problems, explaining yourself helps, but with insight problems, this wrecks you

Interesting aside Interesting related story

• If you force someone to take 10 seconds • A fire department commander in Cleveland of “prep” time before they take a free thought for a very long time that he had ESP • Reason: While attending to a fire in the back of a throw, how do you think this affects one-story house, the commander thought to – A) basketball amateurs himself “something is wrong”, ordered everyone – B) basketball professionals out of the house and then moments later, the floor collapsed • When asked, however, the commander had absolutely no idea why he had ordered his men out of the house

• Upon further questioning, it was • During the Millennium challenge, this was discovered that the fire hadn’t behaved the the mistake the blue team made, stopping way one would have expected (fire was in to discuss everything rather than just the basement, not the kitchen as had been acting on instinct thought) • They were so focused on mechanics they • Fire was hotter than expected, didn’t never considered things holistically respond to water, and wasn’t as noisy as • Interestingly, after their failure, rather than expected dumping their strategy, the Pentagon • All of the signs of danger were there, but started the war game over (pretended had the commander actually thought to everything that happened, didn’t), gave stop and discuss these things with his Van Riper’s superiors specific instructions men, they all would have died, fortunately how to act, and won the next day his unconscious took over When less is more Brendan Reilly

• It’s not always the case that “less is more” • Took over Cook County when the place relates only to our unconscious, was at its worse…resources were sometimes it can also help in very tricky stretched to the limit, the building was old decision making contexts and not up to code, there were no private • Cook County hospital in Chicago is the rooms, just plywood dividers real life inspiration for the series ER • At one point they trained a homeless man • Cook County is renowned for changing the manner in which heart attacks are to do lab tests because no one else was diagnosed available

The biggest problem Heart problems

• To Reilly, the biggest problem was the • These patients were the worst as they take up a Emergency Department (few patients had lot of time and resources…the treatment health insurance) protocol was long and elaborate and for the most part, inconclusive • Lines were down the hall, rooms were • Tests: blood pressure taken, doctor listens to the jammed, and at its peak, 250000 patients chest via stethoscope, a series of questions are came through the ED each day asked (how long have you had pain, • Biggest worry: patients who thought they when/where does it hurt, cholesterol level, were having heart attacks drugs, diabetes?)…a technician then administers an electrocardiogram (which doesn’t spot problems very readily)

Heart problems Why all the tests?

• Doctors take all this information, and • Doctors like to think that they are making estimate the likelihood a heart attack is reasoned judgments but they’re actually occurring just guessing • Problem: this estimate is often not • People having an actual heart attack get anywhere close to accurate (different sent home between 2 and 8% of the time, doctors give different estimates and these as a consequence, most doctors often range from 0 to 100 in terms of overcompensate and admit more people overlap) than they should Why all the tests? There’s got to be a better way

• Heart patients take up rooms and testing • Reilly was intent to change the way in resources for days at a time, this is particularly which heart attacks were diagnosed, so he problematic since the public is well educated on turned to the works of former cardiologist heart disease and coming out to the hospital en masse Lee Goldman • Doctors are also worried about malpractice, so • Goldman collaborated with they’d rather err on the side of admitting mathematicians to determine whether the someone principles of math could be used to help • At Cook County, less than 10% of those determine whether someone is having a admitted actually had, or were having, a heart heart attack attack

Goldman’s system Goldman’s system • Goldman created a decision tree that • Goldman thought that doctors should recommended treatment options based on combine the evidence of the ECG with these dimensions and assign treatment what he called the three urgent risk factors accordingly (home, ED, cardiac care unit, etc.) – 1) Is the pain felt by the patient unstable • Goldman refined the system for years, noting angina? that research need to be done to confirm it, but – 2) Is there fluid in the patient’s lungs no one would…no one wanted to explore the – 3) Is the patient’s systolic blood pressure idea that an equation would be better than a below 100? doctor • Surprisingly, when the research was done, it was funded by the navy for non-medical reasons…but Goldman’s ideas checked out

The Goldman System The Goldman System • Since Reilly was desperate, he decided he • Goldman’s system turned out to be 70% would take a shot at using the Goldman better at recognizing patients that weren’t system having a heart attack • For two months, they kept extensive • In terms of diagnosing the most severe records of doctors’ diagnoses of heart cases, doctors were right between 75 and conditions 89% of the time, the Goldman algorithm • For two months after that, they used was right more than 95% of the time Goldman’s system exclusively Why is this important? Similar experimental finding

• We’re taught that the more info we have, • Stuart Oskamp the better decisions we make, but often • Asked a group of too much info clouds the important stuff psychologists to • In most cases, doctors would actually consider the case of a diagnose better if they knew less 29 year old war veteran • It’s also why Red Team won war games • Information was given on day 1 in stages to see how • It’s also why stockbrokers do well at war confidence and accuracy were affected games with no formal training

More information makes us more Oskamp confident… • Stage 1: basic information is given • Stage 2: childhood information is given • …but this tends not to correlate with • Stage 3: high school and college information is performance in any way given • Important to note, however, that ideal • After each stage, a 25 question multiple choice performance strikes a balance between test about the individual was administered which instinct and deliberation sought to determine diagnosis – Gottman spent years researching his system • With each subsequent stage, confidence in the diagnosis increased, but in reality, overall – Car salesmen spend a lot of time refining their accuracy was unaffected throughout (constantly sales style at about 30%)

Two important lessons Consumer extension

• 1) Truly successful decision making relies on a • Iyengar once studied the correlation balance between deliberate and instinctive between jam choices and jam sales thinking • Set up a booth with either 24 or 6 jam – What you’re striving to do is get to the point that your unconscious is an expert and you’re attempting to choices only use deliberation when necessary • Conventional wisdom says more choices • 2) In good decision making, frugality matters equals more sales – Must be able to differentiate between needing and not needing certain pieces of information Consumer extension Do people know what they want?

• Has anyone here heard of • Customers at the 6 jam booth bought jam Kenna? 30% of the time • Extremely talented experimental pop artist • Customers at the 24 jam booth bought jam • Fred Durst instructed his 3% of the time label head to sign him after hearing only one song • Jam is an impulse item, and too many • U2s manager remarked “he’s going to change the choices paralyzes the consumer world” • Everyone in the industry • You listening Baskin Robbins? thought he was immensely talented and would be a huge success • Problem: focus groups hated him

Kenna More on first impressions

• There are firms that post music on the web for • Dick Morris, key advisor to Bill the general public to listen to and rate…to get Clinton • Famous for taking an idea from rotation at a top 40 station, songs need to get a the entertainment world and rating of 3.0 (out of 4) or higher…when songs applying it to politics (instead of achieve this score there is an 85% chance they proposing PR blurbs about movies, made PR blurbs about will be a hit political issues/speeches) • Kenna’s most promising single, Freetime, scored • This is another attempt to capture a 1.3 amount rock listeners and a .8 among R&B people’s impressions listeners • Unfortunately, gut feelings about what the public wants are often • If everyone who was an expert was so sure he mysterious and iffy would succeed, why didn’t he? • Problem #1: People’s gut feelings are often not how they actually act

Can we do this? The Pepsi Challenge

• Did Bargh’s students know they were • In the early 80’s, Coke was worried about walking slow or why they were being its future polite? • In 1972, 18% of soft drink users said they • It sounds like it should be easy to gage drank Coke exclusively relative to only 4% for Pepsi people’s opinions about things by just asking but as we’ve seen, this isn’t the • In 1980, only 12% were exclusively Coke relative to 11% Pepsi, but Coke was case spending $100 million more a year in • Huge example of this: Pepsi Challenge advertising Adding to this problem New Coke

• The Pepsi Challenge • Designed to mimic • Pepsi aired a series of commercials in which Pepsi’s sweeter taste dedicated Coke drinkers were asked to take a • Performed well in taste sip from two unmarked containers and indicate tests (beat Pepsi by 6 which they preferred to 8%) • 57% of people preferred Pepsi • New Coke was • Coke did their own research, found the same immediately released, thing, and panicked, immediately sending a New how could it fail? Coke formula into production

Outrage Sip test vs. home test

• As it turned out, Coke drinkers hated the • During sip tests, people only get to sip the New Coke, there were protests across the drink and not finish it completely (this was country and the company was forced to the case in the Pepsi challenge) bring back the original recipe, as “Classic • In home tests though, you take home the Coke” just a few months later beverage, have as much as you want, and • Clearly, what people really think was not report your preference a few weeks later uncovered by the taste test, why? • Home tests are better, less artificial, more reflective of normal consumption

Sip test vs. home test Sensation transference

• In home tests, Coke destroys Pepsi • The other thing Coke had going for it that it forgot about was a strong branding • Pepsi is sweeter, and better suited to sip • Cheskin believed that people do not make a tests, but tends not to be satisfying for an distinction between the package and the entire bottle product, this idea is referred to as sensation transference • To determine your market, you need to • Cheskin did work examining margarine and how determine which reaction is more the taste experience was linked to the important, the sip reaction or the long term presentation of the product (margarine was not reaction popular in the 40s but when coloured yellow and put in butter dishes it was actually preferred Sensation transference Why Coca Cola went wrong

• Cheskin also demonstrated a strong consumer preference for a low quality brandy over a high quality • Not only did they not do the home test as but equally inexpensive brandy research, they completely ignored the • The low quality brandy always performed better in taste tests until Cheskin served each brandy from the bottle of strong associations people had with their its competitor packaging • The low quality brandy had a regal, high class look to the bottle/label and that strongly influenced the taste • This doesn’t mean you can put out a experience • In consumer situations, appearance of label, container, terrible product with fancy packaging but it etc. are highly important as people have implicit does show the importance of sensation connections between certain things • Related recent finding (beer with vinegar) transferrence

The Chair of Death The Aeron

• Bill Stumpf, industrial • Stumpf’s chair was designer designed to be as • Designed chairs…sought ergonomically correct as to create something that possible looked different • It was one of the most • Reaction to his creation comfortable chairs ever highlights a second problem with measuring designed people’s reactions: it is • Problem: it didn’t look hard for us to explain our anything like the types of feelings about unfamiliar chairs that were best things sellers

The Aeron The Aeron

• When buying office chairs, people • After completion, they did market testing gravitate to the chair with the most • People were asked to score the chair’s comfort out of 10, with 7.5 being the minimum you’d presumed status – something thronelike want to mass produce with thick cushions and a high imposing • Early ratings were a 4.75 and the chair was back jokingly nicknamed the chair of death • The Aeron was the opposite of this • After tinkering with the chair they got the ratings up to 8, but at this point the chair was even • “Slender, transparent concoction of black uglier than before plastic and odd protuberances and mesh • Normally comfort and aesthetics are correlated, that looked like the exoskeleton of a giant here they weren’t, and that was a huge concern prehistoric insect” The Aeron The Aeron

• After market testing the chair was taken to focus • The Aeron is now the best selling chair in groups, all of whom hated the look of it and rated company history it poorly Despite this, the company pushed ahead with • People’s reactions to the chair were that it it’s plan to release the chair, which was pretty was ugly, it is now thought of as unheard of given market scores (they trusted beautiful…in other words, people have a Stumpf’s instincts) tendency to think of things that are • Initially the chair sold terribly, but then won some different, as ugly design awards and began to appear on TV and film, after which sales increased immensely

Market research Market research

• The problem with almost all market • Reason: the shows were different (MTM research is it can not pick up the was about a woman putting career before difference between different and bad family, AITF was about a curmudgeonly • For example, All in the Family and the racist)…those shows were in danger of Mary Tyler Moore show, two of the most never airing popular shows of all time, initially tested • Similar problems still exist for television terribly with focus groups audiences (e.g. Arrested Development)

Different = bad? How to combat this

• Unfortunately, things that are new and different • Expertise: People who are experts in are often thought of as bad by the general various fields tend to be able to overcome public…even though that’s not actually how people feel these biases • This is why Kenna hasn’t blown up • Reasons: as we become more expert in • This is why branding is so important something, our tastes grow more esoteric • This is why immensely popular TV shows are and complex initially not well received (also happened with Seinfeld) • For example, food critics can often identify • So, why do we listen to market research? things about food that the general public never could An example of the importance of How to combat this experts • A food critic would never get fooled by the Pepsi • Schooler and Wilson: how well can challenge, or the label on a product, because undergraduates rank something relative to they have a better understanding of what goes experts on beyond the locked door of the unconscious • This is why it was wrong to favor the results of • Jam preference: 5 jams drawn from Kenna’s market research over reaction by Consumer reports, rated on texture, taste, industry insiders, the first impressions of experts etc. are different and, more often than not, correct • How would undergrads rate these items (same reason experts spotted the fake kouros so quickly) • Answer: Undergrads do pretty well

What if you have to account for Expertise why you like which jam best? • Now undergraduates do terribly • Our unconscious reactions come out of a locked • Similar to the idea that introspection ruins insight room, but with experience we become an expert • This occurs for a similar reason as to why describing at using our behaviour and training to interpret faces destroys memory and decode what lies beneath our first • We don’t know how to explain our feelings about impressions jam…unconsciously we know what a good jam is but when you’re asked to rate across a series of criteria, you • Important: this does not mean that when we are have no idea outside our areas of expertise that are reactions • Experts don’t have this problem…they are taught a very are wrong specific vocabulary to quantify experience (e.g. • It just means our reactions are shallow, hard to mayonnaise is rated along 6 dimensions of appearance, explain, and easy to disrupt and 14 dimensions of flavor split along three subgroups)

Don’t believe me, try this Amadou Diallo

• If you think you’d do well on the Pepsi • Immigrant from Challenge, try this Guinea, working in New York City selling • Get someone to pour two glasses of either Coke videos on the street or Pepsi and a third glass of the other brand • 5’6, 150 pounds • Try to determine which is the different cola • On February 3, 1999, (triangle test, incredibly difficult) while visiting a friend, • Why can’t you do this like experts? he went out to the • No one actually thinks about colas so our snap steps of his friend’s judgments here are sure to be wrong apartment to get some fresh air Amadou Diallo Amadou Diallo

• Moments later, four plainclothes police officers passed • Diallo tried to quickly open his friends door with his left by, all carrying semi-automatic handguns and wearing hand while fishing for something in his pocket with his bulletproof vests (part of the Street Crime Unit), dressed right hand in thug like street clothes • The police later testified that they assumed he was reaching for a gun • The police thought Diallo was acting suspiciously and thought that he was either a) a look-out or b) matched • Diallo pulled something black from his pocket and tried to raise it towards the officers, who instinctively jumped the description of a serial rapist back and shot at Diallo…41 times • The police approached Diallo and asked to speak to him • When they inspected the body they found that Diallo • Unbeknownst to the officers, Diallo had a stutter and didn’t have a gun, but had gotten out his wallet to turn didn’t speak English well over to people he thought were robbing him • Diallo was terrified, didn’t know these were police • The police were charged with first degree manslaughter officers, and took off running and second-degree murder

Three fatal mistakes Three fatal mistakes

• Given the nature of rapid cognition, we • 1) The cops immediately thought Diallo continually make predictions and looked suspicious even though he was just inferences about what others are getting a breath of fresh air thinking/feeling/doing at any given • 2) The cops mistook Diallo’s standing moment…unfortunately this sometimes there and not running away as being leads to disaster brazen rather than curious • The four officers huge mistake was that • 3) When Diallo reached for his pocket, they weren’t able to read Diallo’s mind and they assumed he was dangerous, he was acted only on their instincts not

Three fatal mistakes Uproar

• Mistakes like this happen all the time but • As expected, there was a huge backlash because they are instantaneous, they are to the decision, with the cops being treated difficult to understand • This led to a long, drawn out, sensationalized as either martyrs or horrible racists process where people argued over the officers • The actual answer is less clear responsibility (racist and power hungry or genuinely mistaken and apologetic) • The officers didn’t intend to shoot Diallo • The jury decided the death was an accident due but their reaction was the result of a series to the fact that police officers are often faced of rapid, incorrect inferences with making rapid decisions in the face of uncertainty Split decisions by police Optimal arousal

• As we’ve already seen with weapon focus, • Optimal arousal for heightened attention and memory is greatly affected by performance seems to occur when the emotional/life threatening situations heart beats at a rate between 115 and 145 • Often police, when interviewed, will describe bpm seemingly impossible events/situations brought on by the stress of a situation • Champion marksmen clock in in that upper – Not hearing one’s gun going off range at the height of performance – Watching your bullets hit someone, as if in slow • Larry Bird used to say the game slowed motion down and he could see everything clearly, • Attention narrows to allow an assessment of he was also at this heightened level threat

Over 145 bpm Over 145

• Bad things start to happen when the heart beats • We also get clumsy and helpless over 145 • You should practice calling 911 until it becomes • Complex motor skills break down, doing automatic, because often people can’t do it in something with one hand but not the other stressful situations becomes difficult • Consequently (and related to Diallo), many • At 175, total breakdown of cognitive processing police departments have banned high-speed – The forebrain shuts down and the mid-brain takes chases for a few reasons over – 1) many innocent pedestrians get killed – People stop making sense – 2) at levels of high arousal mistakes are more likely to – Vision becomes restrictive be made – Behaviour becomes inappropriately aggressive – 3) horrible things often happen at the end of the – In some cases, people void their bowels chase (driver beaten to death, riots) – Blood drains, muscles harden

Racism Conclusion

• This is why cases like Diallo, and Rodney King, • Rapid cognition is one of the most powerful tools are so contentious at our disposal, and yet most of us have no idea • It is suggested that the underlying factor in these how to use it appropriately situations is racism, and while that might be true, • Rapid cognition can be extremely helpful the factors of rapid cognition and adrenalin must – Spotting fake statues also be considered – Knowing when a double fault is coming • Many police departments have also gone to one – Determining marital success officer per car, which sounds counterintuitive but • Or extremely hurtful makes escalating mistakes less likely – In extreme situations • This is a huge concern in racially divided cities – When our stereotypes take over where already contentious relationships with the – In determining our opinion of things that are “different” public make these events more likely Conclusion Conclusion

• To truly harness our power of rapid • The best way to harness rapid cognition is cognition we need to through expertise – A) accept that is occurs and is extremely • Experts have different powerful insights/thoughts/abilities relative to non- – B) realize that we can use these abilities in experts and will often have insights that far concert with deliberative, top down processing exceed those of nonexperts in determining how to react to situations • Rapid cognition can positively influence decision making, attention, and memory, when implemented properly

Blink the book

• Pick it up to read more about these and other topics – Speed dating (do people act how they expect) – Mind reading – Analyses of facial position and emotion –Autism – The attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan and why his bodyguards were helpless to stop it – Overcoming stereotypes in classical music