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Freshwater Biology Freshwater Biology Volume 58, Number 11, November 2013
CONTENTS
Original Articles 2325 Johan Watz, Eva Bergman, John J. Piccolo and Freshwater Biology 2215 Blake R. Hossack, Winsor H. Lowe, Larry Greenberg: Effects of ice cover on the diel Edited by Alan G. Hildrew and Colin R. Townsend Molly A. H. Webb, Mariah J. Talbott, behaviour and ventilation rate of juvenile Associate Editors: Roger I. Jones, Richard K. Johnson Kevin M. Kappenman and Paul Stephen Corn: brown trout Population-level thermal performance of a 2333 Marcus Lukas, Paul C. Frost and Alexander cold-water ectotherm is linked to ontogeny and Wacker: The neonate nutrition hypothesis: early local environmental heterogeneity feeding affects the body stoichiometry of 2226 Cesc Múrria, Núria Bonada, Miquel A. Arnedo, Daphnia offspring Narcís Prat and Alfried P. Vogler: Higher b- and 2345 Yoshito Mitsuo, Mitsuru Ohira, Hiroshi Tsunoda Volume 58 g-diversity at species and genetic levels in and Masahide Yuma: Movement patterns of headwaters than in mid-order streams in small benthic fish in lowland headwater Number 11 Hydropsyche (Trichoptera) streams 2237 P. Gikuma-Njuru, S. J. Guildford, R. E. Hecky and 2355 Ashley K. Baldridge and David M. Lodge: November 2013 H. J. Kling: Strong spatial differentiation of N Intraguild predation between spawning Volume 58, Number 11, November 2013, pp. 2215–2438 and P deficiency, primary productivity and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and community composition between Nyanza Gulf nest-raiding crayfish (Orconectes rusticus): and Lake Victoria (Kenya, East Africa) and the implications for bass nesting success implications for nutrient management 2366 Yuyu Wang, Yifei Jia, Lei Guan, Cai Lu, 2253 Mariana A. Micheli-Campbell, Hamish Guangchun Lei, Li Wen and Guanhua Liu: A. Campbell, Marilyn Connell, Ross G. Dwyer and Optimising hydrological conditions to sustain Craig E. Franklin: Integrating telemetry with a wintering waterbird populations in Poyang predictive model to assess habitat preferences Lake National Natural Reserve: implications and juvenile survival in an endangered for dam operations freshwater turtle 2380 Jonathan W. Witt, Rebecca E. Forkner and Richard 2264 Soren M. Brothers, Sabine Hilt, Stephanie Meyer T. Kraus: Habitat heterogeneity and intraguild and Jan Köhler: Plant community structure interactions modify distribution and injury determines primary productivity in shallow, rates in two coexisting genera of damselflies eutrophic lakes 2389 Shawn P. Devlin, M. Jake Vander Zanden and 2277 Vidya J. Washington, Gavin Lear, Yvonne Vadeboncoeur: Depth-specific variation Martin W. Neale and Gillian D. Lewis: in carbon isotopes demonstrates resource Environmental effects on biofilm bacterial partitioning among the littoral zoobenthos communities: a comparison of natural and 2401 Tessa M. Bradford, Matthew J. Morgan, Zygmunt anthropogenic factors in New Zealand Lorenz, Diana M. Hartley, Christopher M. Hardy streams and Roderick L. Oliver: Microeukaryote 2287 William D. Bovill, Barbara J. Downes and Jill community composition assessed by Lancaster: A test of the preference–performance pyrosequencing is associated with light hypothesis with stream insects: selective availability and phytoplankton primary oviposition affects the hatching success of production along a lowland river caddisfly eggs 2414 Mattias K. Ekvall, Javier de la Calle Martin, 2299 Alex C. Y. Yeung and David Dudgeon: Elisabeth J. Faassen, Susanne Gustafsson, Miquel A manipulative study of macroinvertebrate Lürling and Lars-Anders Hansson: Synergistic grazers in Hong Kong streams: do snails and species-specific effects of climate change compete with insects? and water colour on cyanobacterial toxicity and 2310 Colin M. Wahl, Allison Neils and David Hooper: bloom formation Impacts of land use at the catchment scale 2423 Jennifer Courtwright and Christine L. May: constrain the habitat benefits of stream riparian Importance of terrestrial subsidies for native buffers brook trout in Appalachian intermittent streams
FRONT COVER: A Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus montanus) tadpole in Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A. Photo credit: J. Joseph Giersch (USGS) From: Hossack et al., p. 2215 For submission instructions, subscription and all other information, visit: wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/fwb
This journal is available online at Wiley Online Library. Visit wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/fwb to search the articles and register for table of contents e-mail alerts. ISSN 0046–5070 wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/fwb Freshwater Biology (2013) 58, 2215–2225 doi:10.1111/fwb.12202
Population-level thermal performance of a cold-water ectotherm is linked to ontogeny and local environmental heterogeneity
BLAKE R. HOSSACK* ,WINSORH.LOWE† , MOLLY A. H. WEBB‡ ,MARIAHJ.TALBOTT‡ ,KEVINM. KAPPENMAN‡ AND PAUL STEPHEN CORN* *U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Missoula, MT, U.S.A. †Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, U.S.A. ‡U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bozeman Fish Technology Center, Bozeman, MT, U.S.A.
SUMMARY
1. Negative effects of global warming are predicted to be most severe for species that occupy a nar- row range of temperatures, have limited dispersal abilities or have long generation times. These are characteristics typical of many species that occupy small, cold streams. 2. Habitat use, vulnerabilities and mechanisms for coping with local conditions can differ among populations and ontogenetically within populations, potentially affecting species-level responses to climate change. However, we still have little knowledge of mean thermal performance for many ver- tebrates, let alone variation in performance among populations. Assessment of these sources of varia- tion in thermal performance is critical for projecting the effects of climate change on species and for identifying management strategies to ameliorate its effects. 3. To gauge how populations of the Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus montanus) might respond to long-term effects of climate change, we measured the ability of tadpoles from six populations in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.) to acclimate to a range of temperatures. We compared sur- vival among populations according to tadpole age (1 year or 2 years) and according to the mean and variance of late-summer temperatures in natal streams. 4. The ability of tadpoles to acclimate to warm temperatures increased with age and with variance in late-summer temperature of natal streams. Moreover, performance differed among populations from the same catchment. 5. Our experiments with a cold-water species show that population-level performance varies across small geographic scales and is linked to local environmental heterogeneity. This variation could influence the rate and mode of species-level responses to climate change, both by facilitating local persistence in the face of changes in thermal conditions and by providing thermally tolerant colonists to neighbouring populations.
Keywords: acclimation, adaptation, amphibian, climate change, development
(Janzen, 1967; Deutsch et al., 2008). However, habitat Introduction use, vulnerabilities and mechanisms for coping with Increases in temperature driven by climate change are local conditions can differ among populations and by likely to have especially large negative effects on species age and developmental stage within populations, poten- that are specialised to occupy narrow thermal ranges, tially affecting species-level responses to climate change acclimate poorly or possess limited dispersal abilities (Kingsolver et al., 2011; Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle,
Correspondence: Blake R. Hossack, U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, 790 East Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, MT 59801, U.S.A. E-mail: [email protected]
Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. 2215 2216 B. R. Hossack et al. 2013). For many species, there is still limited knowledge of A. truei and other stream amphibians in the Pacific of thermal performance, including these basic sources of Northwest have sourced animals from a single intraspecific variation. Yet understanding this variation population (de Vlaming & Bury, 1970; Brown, 1975; is critical to projecting how climate change will affect Bury, 2008), precluding measurement of variation populations, species’ distributions and ecosystem func- among populations. Without more knowledge of the tion. Understanding this variation is also a key step in thermal performance of stream amphibians, and of vari- identifying management strategies to prevent population ation in performance among populations, we cannot losses. begin to assess the threat posed by increased tempera- Freshwater ectotherms limited to cold environments tures, or the potential efficacy of conservation measures are especially vulnerable to climate warming because that are often based around co-occurring species (e.g. compared with species that evolved in environments economically important fish). with greater thermal variation, they have narrow thermal We used laboratory experiments to assess differences breadths and smaller thermal safety margins. In the in thermal performance among populations of Rocky northern Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.), increased stream Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus montanus) in Glacier temperatures have already resulted in loss of thermally National Park, Montana, U.S.A. Glacier National Park is suitable habitat for some salmonid fish (Wenger et al., an ideal place to investigate how species will be affected 2011; Isaak et al., 2012). These changes could have by climate change because the park contains strong profound effects on species other than fish, including climatic gradients that produce diverse habitats in close endemic families of amphibians adapted to small, cold proximity (Carrara, 1989; Lowe & Hauer, 1999). Also, streams. These species are frequently habitat specialists the region is warming at 2–3 times the global average confined to headwater streams (e.g. 1st to 3rd order) and (Pederson et al., 2010), increasing the relevance and can have lower thermal optima than local fish (de urgency of climate-related research. Specifically, we Vlaming & Bury, 1970; Brown, 1975; Bury, 2008). For compared the ability of tadpoles from six streams to example, the upper limit of the realised thermal niches of acclimate to a range of laboratory temperatures and the coastal tailed frog (Ascaphus truei) in northern determined whether variation was linked to local envi- California and Oregon (U.S.A.) were 13.6 °C and 15.1 °C, ronmental heterogeneity (mean and variance of stream respectively, which were lower than those of stream fish temperature) or tadpole age. We expected resistance to in the same areas (Huff, Hubler & Borisenko, 2005; higher temperatures would be associated with environ- Welsh & Hodgson, 2008). In addition to low temperature mental heterogeneity (e.g. Lind & Johansson, 2007) and tolerances, most stream amphibians have long generation expected younger tadpoles to be more susceptible than times and are weak dispersers (de Vlaming & Bury, older tadpoles to high temperatures (e.g. Dupr e& 1970; Corn, Bury & Hyde, 2003), which would limit their Petranka, 1985). evolutionary and demographic resilience to change (Mills, 2007; Chevin, Lande & Mace, 2010). Although thermal adaptation of aquatic-breeding Methods vertebrates has typically been examined at the level of Study system and species species, there is growing evidence of local adaptation despite extensive gene flow among populations Glacier National Park is a 4082-km2 reserve that straddles (Friedenburg & Skelly, 2004; Sørensen et al., 2009; Philli- the Continental Divide along the U.S.A.–Canada border. more et al., 2010; Eliason et al., 2011). Some temperate The park is characterised by steep, U-shaped valleys that amphibian species might benefit from warming (Deutsch reflect extensive Pleistocene glaciation (Carrara, 1989). et al., 2008), but it is unclear whether cold-water stream Elevations range from approximately 950 m to 3190 m. amphibians have similar capacities to tolerate variable The climate is characterised by long, cold winters with thermal conditions or adapt to warmer temperatures. In large snow accumulations and warm, dry summers. The the southern Appalachian Mountains, two stream sala- local hydrology is typical of snow-dominated systems in manders were not adapted to elevation or temperature the region, with peak flows during snowmelt in May and clines, which suggested that low-elevation populations June, then low flows during late summer and autumn. were already living near their thermal limit and that West of the Continental Divide, a moist Pacific maritime future temperature increases were likely to further frag- climate prevails. East of the Divide, continental-polar air ment and isolate populations (Bernardo & Spotila, 2006). masses result in a colder, drier and more variable climate Experiments on the thermal performance or preference (Carrara, 1989). This dramatic topographic and climatic
Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA., Freshwater Biology, 58, 2215–2225 Local variation in thermal performance 2217 variation produces strong gradients in floral communities limit its capacity for recovery and rapid evolution (Al- over small spatial scales. For example, less than 40 km lendorf & Luikart, 2007; Mills, 2007). Furthermore, tailed separates the eastern-most extension of moist, western frogs mate in the autumn but do not lay eggs until the red cedar (Thuja plicata)–western hemlock (Tsuga hetero- following spring, and their eggs are rarely found in the phylla) forest characteristic of the Pacific coast from the wild (Karraker et al., 2009). These peculiar reproductive dry grasslands of the Great Plains along the eastern characteristics preclude genotype 9 environment experi- boundary of the park. ments that can separate heritable and environmental Along with frogs of the family Leiopelmatidae in New influences on performance. Zealand, tailed frogs (Ascaphus spp.) are the most We sampled tadpoles from six 1st- and 2nd-order ancient extant anurans (Frost et al., 2006). Rocky Moun- streams that represented a wide range of terrestrial habi- tain tailed frogs reach peak abundances in small, cold tat conditions (Fig. 1, Table 1). McGee, Fern and Ousel streams (i.e. ≤ 3rd order) with clean, coarse substrata, creeks are tributaries of the Flathead River on the west where tadpoles are the dominant grazers (Kiffney & side of the Continental Divide. Ousel Creek is on U.S. Richardson, 2001; Werner et al., 2004). Permanent Forest Service property just outside the national park. streams are required for viable populations because These streams flow through dense, mixed-conifer forests tadpoles take about 4 years to reach metamorphosis. composed primarily of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menzie- This species is among the slowest of anurans to reach sii), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and western larch maturity (6–8 y after hatching), and females have low (Larix occidentalis). The Fern Creek catchment burned in fecundity (<100 eggs biennially) (Nussbaum, Brodie & 2003, but tadpoles remain abundant (Hossack, Corn & Storm, 1983; Corn et al., 2003). These life-history traits Fagre, 2006). Snyder Creek is also a tributary to the make the species susceptible to decline and probably Flathead River, but it flows through an old-growth
Canada
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Fig. 1 Locations of the six streams sampled for Rocky Mountain tailed frog 010205km (Ascaphus montanus) tadpoles in and near Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A.
Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA., Freshwater Biology, 58, 2215–2225 2218 B. R. Hossack et al.
Table 1 Number of Rocky Mountain tailed frog Tadpole Mean (Ascaphus montanus) tadpoles used in temperature No. weight temperature Temperature Elevation experiments, mean weights (SD) of 1-year-old and ° Stream tadpoles (g) ( C) variance (m) 2-year-old tadpoles, mean and variance of water Coonsa tributary 42 0.36 (0.10) 7.77 4.26 1647 temperatures in the six collection streams (19 0.99 (0.20) August to 20 September 2010), and mean collec- Cutbank tributary 24 0.19 (0.04) 6.63 5.32 1696 tion elevation of sampling reaches in these 0.62 (0.10) streams. For weights, 1-year-old tadpoles are listed Fern Creek 48 0.35 (0.13) 8.25 1.88 1226 first for each stream 1.28 (0.33) McGee Creek 24 0.28 (0.10) 7.16 0.65 1183 1.28 (0.14) Ousel Creek 44 0.21 (0.11) 7.98 1.46 1175 0.84 (0.25) Snyder Creek 46 0.34 (0.13) 9.76 1.99 1135 1.03 (0.34)
western red cedar–western hemlock forest. Snyder Creek before the experiment began, reducing the number of ani- was the only stream that originated from a lake. Coonsa mals available for the experiment. and Cutbank are unnamed tributaries to Coonsa and After collecting tadpoles, we installed HOBO â North Fork Cutbank creeks, respectively, in the Missouri Pendant (Onset Computer Corporation, Bourne, MA, River drainage east of the Continental Divide. The U.S.A.) temperature loggers (accuracy: Æ 0.53 °C; resolu- Coonsa tributary flows through an open forest of lodge- tion: 0.14 °C) in the lower and upper end of the stream pole pine and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) and is reach that we sampled (≤1 km long). We used the aver- the eastern-most stream (c. 60 km from McGee Creek, aged values from the two loggers to characterise the the western-most stream we sampled). The Cutbank thermal conditions of each stream. Each logger was tributary was in a sparse, subalpine forest. In the inside a flow-through polyvinyl chloride pipe enclosure Cutbank drainage and most other areas on the east side that shielded it from solar radiation. We secured each of the park, A. montanus is distributed patchily, whereas enclosure to the bottom of the channel in a location that populations are more continuous on the west side of the ensured adequate flow and mixing of the water column. park (B.R. Hossack and P.S. Corn, unpublished data). Loggers recorded temperature hourly between 19 All streams had mean gradients >5% and had riffle–pool August and 20 September 2010, a period encompassing or step–pool morphologies that were dominated by the warmest and most variable temperatures of the year cobble and boulder substrata. and known to have important effects on vital rates of stream organisms in the region (Isaak et al., 2010; Jones et al., 2013). We installed the loggers in the same loca- Thermal acclimation experiments tions in 2011, but we focus primarily on data from 2010, We collected an equal number of live tadpoles of each age the year we conducted the experiment. class from streams during 16–18 August 2010. Tadpole We transported tadpoles to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife age (1 year or 2 years) was assigned based on discrete Service Bozeman Fish Technology Center in Bozeman, size classes and developmental characteristics within each Montana, on 19 August 2010, where they were kept in stream (Hossack et al., 2006). Tadpoles were placed in quarantine tanks and slowly acclimated to 10 °C. Cobble 3.8-L zip-top bags with stream water and kept on ice dur- and gravel were placed on the tank bottoms for cover. ing transport to the field station, where they were stored We transferred tadpoles to the thermal experiment after in a refrigerator. Our goal was to have 48 tadpoles from 11 days. Water for the experiment was taken from cold each of five streams for the experiment; however, tadpoles and warm springs and was disinfected by ultraviolet were uncommon in the Cutbank drainage, so we collected light and heated by three 40,000 BTU water heaters. only 24 in that stream and then added an additional Water was degassed in head columns before mixing. We stream on the west side of the park (McGee Creek) to monitored saturation of dissolved oxygen, total collect the remaining 24 tadpoles for the experiments. A dissolved gases and nitrogen plus argon (N + Ar) with a few tadpoles died during transport or in the laboratory Common Sensing Model TBO-DL6 meter (Common
Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA., Freshwater Biology, 58, 2215–2225 Local variation in thermal performance 2219 Sensing, Clark Fork, Idaho). Dissolved gases were within of food slurry per tile) and dried overnight in a convec- an acceptable range for aquatic species culture, with tion oven at 60 °C. One tile with food was placed in dissolved oxygen ranging from 84 to 90% saturation, each tadpole chamber and was replaced daily if all food total dissolved gases ranging from 96 to 101% saturation was consumed. At the same time, any dead tadpoles and N + Ar ranging from 96 to 101% saturation. were recorded and removed from the enclosure. If the We used the acclimated chronic exposure (ACE) tile was not cleared of food, we replaced it every other method to test survival of tadpoles at 10 °C, 14 °C, day. All chambers were examined daily and cleaned of 18 °C and 22 °C in a fully replicated and randomised excrement and excess food every Monday, Wednesday experiment. The ACE method uses gradual increases in and Friday. temperature that allow animals to acclimate to a chang- ing environment, after which they are maintained at a Disease testing constant temperature (Zale & Gregory, 1989; Selong et al., 2001). We used test temperatures between 10 °C Before we conducted the experiment in a biosecure facil- and 22 °C because this range encompassed the width of ity that breeds threatened and endangered species, we the estimated realised thermal niches of A. truei in first had to demonstrate that source populations of wild northern California and Oregon (Huff et al., 2005; Welsh animals were not likely to be diseased. The year before & Hodgson, 2008) and because A. montanus tadpoles we conducted experiments, we collected 10 tadpoles have occasionally been documented in habitats warmer from each stream to test for presence of ranavirus frog than 20 °C (Dunham et al., 2007). We also chose this virus 3 (FV3; family Iridoviridae) via liver cultures con- temperature range because it is similar to that of cold- ducted on fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) cell water fish in the northern Rocky Mountains (e.g. Selong lines following methods described by Green & Dodd et al., 2001), facilitating future comparisons of tempera- (2007). Prior to tissue cultures at the Bozemen Fish ture sensitivities among species that share habitats. Health Center, we tested each tadpole for the presence We used 12 flow-through 75-L tanks to apply the four of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobat- temperature treatments simultaneously, providing three idis) via PCR at Pisces Molecular LLC (Boulder, CO, replicates of each temperature. Within the tanks, we had U.S.A.). Neither FV3 nor B. dendrobatidis was detected five plastic aquaria (13 9 9 9 10 cm 2-in-1 Fish from the samples. Hatchery, Aquatic Eco-systems Inc., Apoka, FL, U.S.A.). Slats in each end of each aquarium allowed water Statistical analysis exchange and a centre divider created two chambers. The divided aquaria provided 10 chambers in each 75-L We compared differences in survival according to exper- tank. In total, this design resulted in 30 chambers imental temperature, population source (natal stream), available for each of the 4 temperature treatments. Each tadpole age and mean and variance of stream tempera- chamber had cobble to provide cover and hosted one tures recorded by the data loggers. We estimated the 1-year-old and one 2-year-old tadpole. We used mixed probability that an individual was dead at the end of tadpole sizes so that we could track individuals without the 79-day experiment with generalised linear mixed- having to mark them. All tanks remained at 10 °C for effects models with a binomial link and maximum-likeli- the first 7 days, after which temperatures in the 14 °C, hood methods (package lmer4 in program R v. 2.12.2; R 18 °C and 22 °C tanks were increased up to 2 °C per Development Core Team, 2011). Tank, aquarium and day until they reached their target temperature. The chamber were included as nested random effects to experiment started after all tanks reached their target account for the design of our experiment and to provide temperature and lasted for 79 days. unbiased estimates of the treatment effects. We excluded Tadpoles were fed a food formulated at the Bozeman data from the 22 °C treatment from the analysis because Fish Technology Center. Because the Technology Center nearly all tadpoles at that temperature died. Including is biosecure, we could not bring periphyton-covered these data caused problems with fitting some models rocks from local streams to provide a food source. and was not informative for comparisons across tadpole Instead, we formulated food by combining ground rice ages or streams. hulls (78.9 g), spirulina (10 g), wheat starch (5 g), guar We fit eight models to determine which provided the gum (5 g), vitamins (1 g) and trace minerals (0.1 g). We best description of the data. Experimental temperature added 8 ml of water to 1 g of dry food to make a slurry was modelled as a factor variable and was included in that we spread onto 3 9 3 cm square ceramic tiles (1 ml all models because it was fundamental to the experi-
Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA., Freshwater Biology, 58, 2215–2225 2220 B. R. Hossack et al. ment. The first model included only experimental tem- ature, tadpole age and variance in field-measured stream perature (10 °C, 14 °C and 18 °C). The second model temperatures received the most support (Table 2). Based included the additive effects of tadpole age (1 year or on this model, the probability of death ranged from 2 years) and experimental temperature. This model was only 0.015 (SE = 0.017) in the 10 °C treatment to 0.643 used to assess our hypothesis that younger tadpoles (SE = 0.124) in the 18 °C treatment (Fig. 2). Mortality would be more susceptible than older tadpoles to high was higher for 1-year-old tadpoles compared with temperatures (Dupr e & Petranka, 1985). The third model 2-year-old tadpoles (log-odds b = 1.043 [0.437]). Survival included the additive effect of population and experi- of 1-year-old tadpoles was approximately one-half that mental temperature and described our hypothesis that of 2-year-old tadpoles in the 10 °C and 14 °C treatments thermal sensitivity varied among populations. The (Fig. 2). The disparity in probability of death between fourth model included additive effects of experimental age classes was smaller at 18 °C, where 75% of 1-year- temperature, tadpole age and population. old tadpoles died compared with 53% of 2-year-old In the remaining 4 models, we replaced the popula- tadpoles. The log-odds of death for individuals was tion term in the models above with covariates represent- inversely related to variance in stream temperature ing either the mean or variance of in situ stream (b = À0.413 [0.157]; Fig. 2), indicating that tadpoles from temperatures. These models allowed us to assess the more variable environments were more tolerant of high importance of environmental heterogeneity in the stream temperatures. of origin for predicting thermal performance. We mea- The model that included population rather than tem- sured support for competing models based on differ- perature variance received the second most support and D ences in the Akaike information criterion ( AIC) and provided estimated effects of experimental temperature
Akaike weights (wi), which represent the probability that and tadpole age similar to the top-ranked model a particular model is the best for the given set of models (Table 2, Fig. 3). Estimates from this model revealed and data (Burnham & Anderson, 2002). significant differences in survival of tadpoles among populations for the 14 °C and 18 °C treatments. This population-focused model actually described more Results Stream characteristics Table 2 Models used to compare differences in survival of Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus montanus) tadpoles according to Between 19 August and 20 September 2010, the mean experimental temperature (temp.) (10 °C, 14 °Cor18°C), local and variance in temperature of the six streams we sam- environmental heterogeneity (mean and variance of water tempera- pled ranged from 6.63 °C to 9.76 °C and 0.65 °Cto ture in the 6 streams of origin) and tadpole age (1 year or 2 years). Models are ranked according to differences in the Akaike informa- 5.32 °C, respectively (Table 1). We expected mean and D tion criterion ( AIC) and model weights (wi). k is the number of variance of stream temperatures to be positively corre- estimated parameters and -2log(L) is the -2 9 the log-likelihood of lated in these low-volume streams, but they were each model weakly, negatively correlated (r = À0.30). We suspect D Model k -2log(L) AIC wi that this relationship was a consequence of the wide + range of habitats we sampled. The coldest stream (Cut- Experiment Temp. 8 133.82 0.00 0.64 Tadpole Age + bank) was the most variable; it also flowed through a Stream Temp. (r2) sparse subalpine forest that probably had more variable Experiment Temp. + 12 128.52 2.70 0.17 air temperature than forests around other streams. The Tadpole Age + Population warmest stream (Snyder Creek) flowed from a lake and + – Experiment Temp. 7 139.80 3.98 0.09 through an old-growth red cedar hemlock forest; both Stream Temp. (r2) of these factors can moderate temperature fluctuations Experiment Temp. + 7 141.44 5.62 0.04 (Mellina et al., 2002). Tadpole Age Experiment Temp. + 8 139.62 5.80 0.04 Tadpole Age + Stream Thermal performance Temp. (x ) Experiment Temp. + 11 134.50 6.68 0.02 The laboratory experiments revealed significant variation Population in thermal performance that was linked to tadpole age Experiment Temp. 6 147.30 9.48 0.01 Experiment Temp. + 7 145.58 9.76 0.00 and environmental heterogeneity in the natal stream. Stream Temp. (x ) The model that included effects of experimental temper-
Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA., Freshwater Biology, 58, 2215–2225 Local variation in thermal performance 2221
1.00 Age1-year tadpoles Age 1-year tadpoles 1.00 0.90 10 °C 0.90 0.80 14 °C 0.70 0.80 18 °C 0.60 0.70 0.50 0.60 0.40 0.50 0.30 0.40 0.20 Probability of death 0.10 0.30 0.00 0.20 0.10 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Probability of death (± SE) 0.00 Temperature variance Coonsa Cutbank Fern McGee Ousel Snyder 1.00 Age 2-year tadpoles 0.90 Age 2-year tadpoles 0.80 1.00 10 °C 0.70 0.90 0.60 14 °C 0.80 0.50 18 °C 0.40 0.70 0.30 0.60 0.20 0.50 Probability of death 0.10 0.00 0.40 0.30 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 0.20 Temperature variance 0.10 Probability of death (± SE) 0.00 Fig. 2 Estimated probability of death for 1-year-old and 2-year-old Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus montanus) tadpoles from six Coonsa Cutbank Fern McGee Ousel Snyder populations relative to variance in stream temperature from 19 August to 20 September 2010. Diamonds, circles and triangles rep- Fig. 3 Population-specific estimates of probability of death for resent estimates from the 10 °C, 14 °C and 18 °C experimental 1-year-old and 2-year-old Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus treatments, respectively. montanus) tadpoles at experimental temperatures of 10 °C, 14 °C ° variation in the response data than the variance-focused and 18 C. model (based on -2log[L]), but it provided a less parsi- monious fit because of the four extra parameters in the with variance in water temperature in the natal stream, model. The remaining models all received weak support even among streams separated by less than 15 km. ≤ (wi 0.09), including those that included mean stream The greater ability of tadpoles from more variable temperature (Table 2). environments to acclimate to warm temperatures matches predictions for species with long generation times, where individuals experience more within-genera- Discussion tion than between-generation variation (Angilletta, The consequences of climate warming are predicted to Niewiarowski & Navas, 2002; Gabriel, 2005; Merakov a&