ISSUE 138 DECEMBER 2010 The Future Submarine Project, More than just a Boat Who’s A Pirate? In Court, A Duel Over Definitions One Third of their Combat Power – Developing a Quantitative Model for Intelligence Analysis of Morale in Armed Forces The Indian Ocean is going to be massively more significant Exclusive Interview with Kim Beazley JOURNAL OF THE Trusted Partner Depth of expertise Proudly the leading mission systems integrator for the Royal Australia Navy, Raytheon Australia draws on a 1300 strong Australian workforce and the proven record of delivering systems integration for the Collins Class submarine, Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyer and special mission aircraft. Raytheon Australia is focused on the needs of the Australian Defence Force and has the backing of Raytheon Company — one of the most innovative, high technology companies in the world — to provide NoDoubt® confi dence to achieve our customer’s mission success. www.raytheon.com.au © 2009 Raytheon Australia. All rights reserved. “Customer Success Is Our Mission” is a registered trademark of Raytheon Company. Image: Eye in the Sky Collins Oct09 A4.indd 1 21/10/2009 10:14:55 AM Issue 138 3 Letter to the Editor Contents o it seems the knives are out for the discussion. The Future Submarine Project, More 2009 White Paper with the familiar In Navy however we need to ensure than just a Boat 4 crowingS of those who were once we don’t declare victory and relax influential and continue to strive to just because there were a raft of new remain so. Having advocated masses projects slated in the 2009 document. Who’s A Pirate? In Court, A Duel Over of submarines in the past we now see We cannot afford to have mission Definitions 9 these same advocates questioning creep on the Offshore Combatant the basis of the size of the submarine Vessel, nor can we stop articulating the One Third of their Combat Power – force. Curiously I can’t recall the importance of acquiring the remaining Developing a Quantitative Model detailed basis of the force structure pieces of the Amphibious deployment for Intelligence Analysis of Morale in decisions ever being clearly articulated and sustainment system that seem to Armed Forces 12 in declaratory policy such as White have been pushed back into the next Papers – there is a good reason that decade. Similarly, we cannot be lulled The Indian Ocean is going to be detailed information such as this is into thinking that the most ill informed massively more significant - Exclusive both classified and closely held. debate of all – surface ship survivability Interview with Kim Beazley 16 While one can argue about whether – has passed. having more submarines than surface A lively debate on these issues combatants will unbalance the fleet is paramount and contributions by The All Black Kiwi and the Red structure and reduce Navy’s overall practioners is critical to informing Kangaroo: Australia and New Zealand day to day utility in contributing to the it. For far too long practioners have – A Shared Naval Heritage 21 joint effect, you cannot argue with the remained relatively silent in our central maritime premise of the White professional debate. We have ceded the The Royal Australian Navy and Paper itself. Anyone who attended intellectual discussion space to those Climate Change: Challenges and the ANI’s Vernon Parker Oration last with an intellect but little practical Opportunities 26 year to hear the White Paper’s chief substance to make their musings useful author Mike Pezzullo could not help – yet they seem to influence policy Let’s give the LHDs some names with but be impressed with the clarity of his more than we. This is a maritime meaning 33 articulation of the key issues. century, one where Navy will play a key Whether the Government decides role in the ADF’s contribution to the SIGNAL – VADM Sir Richard Peek, KBE, to revisit the White Paper before the ongoing security of Australia and her CB, DSC, RAN (Rtd) 49 planned five year strategic planning interests. Headmark and the ANI offers cycle requires is something we will us all the chance to keep this debate have to wait and see. If it does, I doubt alive, to shape its direction and take The Experiences of the Men of the a fundamentally different answer will back some of the ground we have given Royal Australian Navy Helicopter emerge unless of course it is handed up. We need to close the metaphorical Flight Vietnam 50 over to the academic community to door to our offices and think and write. Australia’s academic Defence write about something else other than Naval Officer turns 100 and gains and strategic studies community boarding ops and anti-piracy patrols – the OAM 54 is bedeviled with factionalism and we need to write about our future. acolytes following those who have had Book Reviews 56 their day and whose dated commentary “Melpomene” sadly passes for considered strategic Visions from the Vault 59 Issue Number 138 Front cover photograph: HMAS Labuan prepares for a beach landing on the coast of Lautaim, East Printed by Everbest Timor to disembark personnel and stores during Pacific Partnership 2010. ANI On-line Guide 60 Printing Company ISSN 1833-6531 Style Notes for Headmark 61 - RAYTHEON AUSTRALIA - BOOZ & COMPANY - AUSTAL - THALES naval GROUP - DEFENCE MARITIME Services - QINETIQ Design & DTP: ANI Membership Application Form 63 Diane Bricknell - AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE CREDIT UNION - ATI - LOPAC - SAAB [email protected] Journal of the Australian Naval Institute 4 The Future Submarine Project, More than just a Boat BY FLIGHT LIEUTENANT MICHAEL KILHAM WINNER OF THE ROCKER equipped with very Roberton Essay contest 2010 secure real-time communications and be able to carry he Defence White Paper 2009 different mission calls for a doubling of the present payloads such Tsubmarine force size to 12 under as uninhabited Project Sea 1000. It states that this underwater vehicles number is required to ‘sustain a force at (UUV’s). sea large enough in a conflict or crisis The Future to be able to defend our approaches’. Submarine will be The White Paper also outlines that capable of a range the force may need to do this at of tasks such as ‘considerable distance’ from Australia, anti-ship and anti- protect and support other ADF submarine warfare; assets and undertake certain strategic strategic strike; mine missions where the stealth and other detection and mine- operating characteristics of highly- laying operations; capable advanced submarines would be intelligence crucial.1 collection; supporting The White Paper states an intent to special forces expand, not only submarine numbers, (including infiltration but the role and reach of the present and exfiltration Collins Class based submarine force, missions); and while leaving open the design and size gathering battlespace requirements for the future submarine. data in support of It states the submarines will be operations2, making From over a assembled in South Australia; however, it, arguably, the most ADF with a platform broadly capable of century ago... Artist it does not clarify if the design is to be versatile and capable platform in the meeting its needs, both for training and rendering of future completely Australian, Military off the ADF’s inventory. operations; however, many difficulties submarine warfare, Shelf (MOTS), or an Australianised still exist. The Navy has struggled to where subs crawl version of MOTS. This leaves planners Current Submarine retain the skilled personnel to maintain out of the water and attack helpless with the significant dilemma of taking Capability the submarine force for some years. lighthouses. (Public the higher risk approach of designing Recent gains in personnel due to the domain). a bespoke platform in Australia or The introduction of the Collins Class to mining downturn in 2008/09 may be considering lessons learnt from the the Australian fleet promised to deliver short lived as the industry recovers. Collins Class and accepting the lower the world’s largest and most capable Additionally, the platform still risk MOTS approach. conventionally powered submarine; has inherent design issues that will Whatever option is taken the however, it was marred by controversy continue to be a challenge to both the Defence White Paper clearly defines its about its performance, noise and cost. Navy and the Australian Submarine expectations for the Future Submarine. The Collins Class has undergone a Corporation (ASC) until class It states that ‘The Future Submarine number of upgrades to date in order retirement. These issues aside, Navy will have greater range, longer to meet both original and modified has worked hard to recover submarine endurance on patrol, and expanded specifications. These upgrades, which personnel numbers from the lows of capabilities compared to the current include the boats Combat System, have 2008. In conjunction with ASC it has Collins class submarine. It will also be left the Australian Navy and wider also improved hull availability in recent Journal of the Australian Naval Institute Issue 138 5 months, but given the Class is based on each (2006 dollars) and a total of $5.7 has assigned the Strategic Reform a late 1980’s design, it may struggle to billion as a project cost. Assuming the Program (SRP) one of the highest provide a capability edge out to 2025. new submarine can be built at the same priorities over the next decade in order cost/tonne as the Collins Class would to return 20 billion dollars in savings Designed to Suit result in a unit cost of $1.4 billion in back to operations.7 Expenditure today’s dollars, or $16.8 billion for a on this scale will require significant Australia has over 36000km of coastline build of 12.4 justification, as outlined in the 2008 and open northern approaches to The Institute argues that the real Mortimer Review.8 protect, presenting unique challenges cost of building would be substantially regarding range and endurance issues greater because of the increased Military Off The Shelf for its submarine fleet.