B a R O M E T E R Bulgaria’S Political Parties Year 16, Issue 1, January-March 2016

Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) B A R O M E T E R Bulgaria’s Political Parties Year 16, Issue 1, January-March 2016

The migrant crisis was one of the main topics that shaped the political situation in the country. This will be one of the greatest challenges the government will face in the following days and months. The shutting down of the so called Balkan route might lead to redirecting the migrant flow towards Bulgaria. The government is undertaking preventive measures to guard our southern border and, if needed, reinforcements from the Bulgarian Army will be sent.

GERB’s government stands stable. The internal party’s mobilisation is at its highest and shows support for the government. Despite the criticism from the opposition, neither BSP and MRF, nor DSB can be viewed as a serious alternative to GERB at this point of time. Prime Minister Borisov confirmed his foreign policy positions, acknowledging the significance of the state with regard to the migrant crisis and the protection of the external border of the EU.

The Reformist Bloc continues to exist more in theory than in practice. The processes of division within it are now more and more visible after the decision of the DSB to become an opposition party. Currently the struggle of the parties in the bloc is for the trademark Reformist Bloc and which one of them will keep it. This is one of the reasons why DSB’s stance is so indeterminate – on one hand to be in opposition and, on the other, to remain in the parliamentary group. Probably the RB will dissolve ultimately with the nearing of the presidential elections.

An internal party priority of the BSP is the forthcoming congress at the beginning of May. It seems that the main battle will be between the present leader Mihail Mikov and Kornelia Ninova. The congress will be of great importance for BSP, and will show whether the party can manage to emerge from political stalemate which it has been experiencing for the second consecutive year.

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CONTENTS

1. Political Situation...... 2 1.1. Domestic policy...... 2 1.2 Foreign policy and European policy...... 3 1.3. Migrant crisis...... 4 2. State and development of the main political parties...... 5 2.1. Trends in the parliamentary represented parties supporting the government ...... 5 2.1.1. GERB...... 5 2.1.2. Reformist Bloc...... 6 2.1.3. Patriotic Front ...... 7 2.1.4. ABV...... 8 2.2. Trends in the parliamentary opposition ...... 9 2.2.1. BSP…...... 9 2.2.2. MRF...... 10 2.2.3. BDC...... 12 2.2.4. “Ataka”...... 13 2.3. Positions of the parties on foreign and European policy...... 13 3. Public opinion...... 14 4. Main Conclusions and forecasts…...... 15 2 B AROMETE R 1/2016

1. Political situation and the Civil Procedure Code, leading to fast and efficient litigation. 1.1 Domestic policy Another government shuffle was con- The first quarter of 2016 was especially dy- ducted at the beginning of February. The namic both from a foreign political aspect Minister of Education Prof. Todor Tanev re- and from domestic policy plan. A major signed upon the request of the Prime Min- influence on the political situation in the ister Borisov. The cause for the resignation country was played by the more complex was the new educational school plans an- relations in the ruling coalition, which led nounced by the ministry, which triggered a to DSB with leader Radan Kunev becoming scandal related to the interpretation of his- opposition. The continuing migrant flow torical events – more particularly the peri- and the crisis situation close to the Bulgar- od of the Ottoman rule of the country. The ian state borders heightened the fears of Prime Minister Borisov said that he would the public and raised the risks to national allow the Reformist Bloc to propose the security. candidacy of the new minister of education. The fact of DSB becoming an opposi- DSB refused to take part in the nego- tion party was provoked by the resignation tiations on the appointment of the new of the Minister of Justice Hristo Ivanov at minister of education. The other parties the end of last year. Ivanov resigned after in the Reformist Bloc (RB) united around the vote in parliament on the amendments the candidacy of the Deputy Prime Minis- to the Constitution which reflected on the ter Meglena Kouneva. She was approved legal system reform. Hristo Ivanov insisted by parliament with only five ballots differ- that the majority of the members of the ence between those in favour and those college of judges should come from the against her candidacy. Kouneva’s candidacy judge’s circle, so that the true independ- received firm support only from GERB and ence of the court can be guaranteed, and half of the votes of her own political group such were the recommendations made by - the Reformist Bloc. The opposition parties the Venice Commission. However, this did BSP, MRF and “Ataka” and some MPs from not happen and the MPs gave their support the Patriotic Front, which is part of the rul- to ABV’s draft. Hristo Ivanov accused the ing majority, declared in advance that they incumbents of lack of political will for real would not give their support for her. The reform of judicial power. voting on Kouneva’s candidacy showed that The new Minister of Justice Ekaterina the government relies on a fragile balance Zaharieva said that she is determined to of the support of flexible majorities at the continue the judiciary reform with a faster expense of various compromises, most of pace and to see it through. Before taking which, however, remain hidden to the gen- this post Zaharieva was chief of cabinet of eral public. the President Rosen Plevneliev and Deputy In the middle of February BSP and MRF Prime Minister in the two caretaker cabinets tabled the first motion for a vote of no con- appointed by the president. Zaharieva an- fidence on the government’s healthcare nounced that it would be a priority for her policy. The opposition accused the Health to pass the Law on the Judiciary System, the Minister Peter Moskov that his inconsistent procedure codes – Penal Procedure Code actions and authoritarian work style have B AROMETE R 1/2016 3

resulted in creating chaos in the sector. As ally by the Prime Minister, based on unclear expected the vote of no confidence was motivation. Many of the representatives of not passed. Only BSP, MRF and “Ataka” the opposition pointed out that by doing were in favour, while 135 MPs from the so the Prime Minister is trying to clear his ruling majority expressed their support for image in the eyes of the European partners the government. The group of the Bulgar- of Bulgaria. The cancellation of the public ian Democratic Centre (BDC) abstained. procurements commenced after Borisov Nonetheless, the problems in the sector was asked the question during a meeting remain unsolved. The professional organi- with the Bulgarian community in London as sations refused to sign the annual frame- to “whether he sees Delyan Peevski when work agreement, which goes to show that he looks into the mirror.” The issue of the the contradictions within the profession are connections between Borisov and Peevski is serious, and there is a lack of dialogue. The strongly articulated publicly by DSB’s lead- decision of the Constitutional Court to re- er Radan Kanev and representatives of the peal an important part of the reform – the Protest Network. It is not by chance that the separation of the health package into main first cancelled public procurement by Bor- and secondary - was a strike at the policy isov, worth nearly one billion BGN, was for of Minister Peter Moskov. In its motives the the construction of Hemus highway, which Constitutional Court stipulates that medical it is rumoured, was won by companies close care is covered by the Law on Healthcare to the MP from MRF, Delyan Peevski, and Insurance, but totally indiscernibly, and this the CEO of Lukoil, Valentin Zlatev. is inadmissible as it pertains to basic human rights. This violates the principle of the rule 1.2. Foreign and European policy of law and Article 52 of the Constitution, The European Commission’s report on the according to which the people have the Mechanism for Cooperation and Verifica- right to healthcare which guarantees acces- tion came out at the end of January. This sible medical care. was yet another report that established one During the past quarter the Prime Min- and the same shortcoming – the main crit- ister Borisov ordered the cancellation of a icisms and recommendations to Bulgaria number of public procurements, due to the remain unchanged – lack of results in the fact that, according to him, there is a certain fight against corruption, and lack of trans- perception in society regarding the trans- parency in the decisions taken by the Su- parency of their procedures. Borisov noted preme Judicial Council. The need of reform that if any irregularities in any one of the of the prosecution and the penal procedure cancelled public procurements should be has been observed, as well as amendment ascertained, then there will be sanctions for of the Law on the Judiciary System, which the officials. The opposition accused Borisov would be instrumental for implementing of populism and explained that if there are the constitutional amendments endorsed at irregularities in the public procurement ten- the end of 2015. The First Vice-Chairman ders, executive power is to blame for this. of the European Commission Frans Timmer- The cancellation of public procurements is mans said that 2016 is the year in which only possible if there is sound legal ground serious progress and real results in the fight for this, and it should not be done unilater- against high level corruption and the court 4 B AROMETE R 1/2016

cases against organised crime should be 1.3. Migrant crisis seen. According to him, this continues to be The migrant crisis has been one of the lead- the most-pressing challenge facing Bulgaria ing topics in the public domain over the and, therefore, it has to be addressed as a past quarter. The increase in the flow of ref- foremost priority. ugees since the beginning of the year and Once again the European Commission’s the gathering of thousands of people close report generated contradictory reactions. to the Bulgarian-Greek and the Bulgari- The proponents of radical judiciary reform an-Turkish borders has led to the taking of saw the report as severely critical. It was seen urgent measures on the part of the govern- as a step towards the separation of Bulgaria ment. Parliament has passed amendments and Romania, even leading to the dropping to the Law on Defence and the Armed Forc- of the monitoring of Romania, which would es allowing the Bulgarian army to partici- be considered as a serious blow to Bulgar- pate in the guarding of the state border. So ia’s reputation and a clear sign of the low far this has been the responsibility of the level of trust in the country as a whole. DSB, border police, part of the structure of the the Protest Network and the Judges Union interior ministry. The MPs unanimously sup- in Bulgaria uphold this stance. The chair- ported this decision. Training exercises with man of the Supreme Cassation Court Lozan the participation of the army, border police Panov – one of the spokesmen in favour of and other structures were held in the vicin- conducting a sweeping legal reform, has ity of the border with Greece with a view become even more critical towards the in- to preparing for a possible flow of refugees cumbents, the work of the Supreme Judicial on the southern borders of the country, es- Council, whose member he is by right and pecially after the shutting down of the so towards the prosecution. His conflict with called Balkan route. the Chief Prosecutor has become more evi- Several times in recent months Prime dent in the past few months. Sotir Tsatsarov Minister Boyko Borisov has called upon the accused Lozan Panov of having political am- closing of the external borders of the EU bitions and of making political statements, and prevention of the admission of more which is unacceptable for a judge. This migrants. He underlined that a distinction conflict is transferred onto the work of the between refugees and economic migrants entire legal system and has an even more should be made. Borisov expressed this po- negative effect on the already extremely sition during his visit to the country of his low level of trust in the courts and the law Hungarian colleague Viktor Orban. Orban enforcement authorities. invited Borisov to take part in the meeting On the other hand, the advocates in fa- of the Visegrad Four, dedicated to the mi- vour of lifting the monitoring of Bulgaria on grant crisis. criminal law and civil matters are becom- The deal reached between the EU and ing stronger. During a conference in Brus- Turkey is of exceptional importance for Bul- sels under the aegis of Bulgarian MEPs the garia in its role of an external border of the question of the need to lift the verification union. Prime Minister Boyko Borisov asked mechanism of Bulgaria was raised since, the EU to include Bulgaria explicitly in the according to them, it is discriminatory and draft-agreement with Turkey for stopping dysfunctional, and has fulfilled its role. the migrant flow, which only mentions B AROMETE R 1/2016 5

Greece. Otherwise, he warned, Bulgaria will In general the main political parties in veto it. In a letter addressed to the President Bulgaria expressed overall concern about the of the European Council Donald Tusk and migrant crisis situation. But of course, there the Member States Borisov insists also that are some differences in their positions. As a the EU should not change the rules of the whole the incumbents from GERB and the visa liberalisation dialogue with Turkey only Reformist Bloc uphold a more balanced po- because it relies on Turkey’s ability and mo- sition and express solidarity with the people tivation to stop the refugee flow towards seeking asylum and appeal towards finding Europe. In turn, the Foreign Minister add- a pan-European solution. “Ataka” is at the ed that each country that wants visa liber- opposite pole and believes that all migrants alisation should fulfil 72 requirements. He that have entered the territory of the coun- said that exceptions shall not be made for try illegally should be extradited. Krasimir anyone under any circumstances. This issue Karakachanov from the Patriotic Front be- was also commented on by President Rosen lieves that the main problem with the ref- Plevneliev. According to him the EU’s at- ugees is the instability in the Near East and tention should not be focussed only on the Turkey’s attempts “to blackmail the EU with measures for restricting the migrant flow the enormous mass of refugees on its terri- from Turkey to the Greek islands. The talks tory.” Rumen Petkov from ABV expressed on the deal with Ankara need to include his party’s dissatisfaction from the results also the land border of Turkey with Greece of the summit meeting in Brussels due to and Bulgaria, as well as the Black Sea bor- the fact that the conditions posed by the der between the EU and Turkey. Otherwise Turkish President Erdogan were accepted prerequisites for opening alternative routes with the assistance of the German Chancel- of the migrant flows would appear. lor Angela Merkel, and underlined that this Borisov described the deal between marks a deep political and institutional crisis the EU and Turkey as plausible for Bul- in the community. garia and underlined that Bulgaria will not accept any more migrants from Tur- 2. State and Development of the Main key outside the commitment for reloca- Political Parties tion of 1200 people. According to Bor- isov the gravest danger comes from the 2.1. Trends in the Parliamentary migrant wave towards Bulgaria flow- Represented Parties Supporting the ing from Greece and not from Turkey, Government at whose border the pressure is low at present. According to him there is in- 2.1.1. GERB formation that large groups of thou- During the past quarter GERB faced the chal- sands of refugees are getting organised lenge of inter-coalition contradiction. Tsvetan in camps in Greece and are moving to- Tsvetanov was elected chairman of the par- wards the Bulgarian border. This is the liamentary committee on internal security reason why the training exercises at the and public order, since the former chairman border should continue so that the ac- Atanas Atanasov from DSB resigned because tions of the army, the interior ministry, his party became opposition. the Red Cross, etc. can be coordinated. Really strained relations between GERB and 6 B AROMETE R 1/2016

part of the Reformist Bloc, close to DSB and Boyko Borisov was the first to sign the Radan Kanev, were witnessed during the annex to the coalition agreement, as was past quarter. The Reformist Bloc proposed the wish of the Reformist Bloc. According the re-signing of the coalition agreement to him this is unnecessary, as two years ago with GERB on the reforms that should be all the parties from the RB signed the coali- implemented and to define clear terms. tion agreement with clearly set parameters GERB reluctantly accepted this idea, but and policies. Borisov stated that the con- commenced negotiations at an expert level stitutional reform, because of which DSB with a view to signing the final document. became the opposition, was never part of However, the repartee and accusations the coalition agreement and two years ago between Radan Kanev and representatives no one even believed that this very National of GERB in the media have become a daily Assembly was capable of gathering a quo- occurrence. Kanev accused GERB of con- rum and reaching a consensus to amend nections with MRF and Delyan Peevski. the Constitution – bearing in mind the dif- According to him the two parties have not ficulties at the time of forming the govern- ceased to govern covertly. He believes that ment. Borisov, Peevski and the chief prosecutor Regarding the presidential elections Sotir Tsatsarov form a Triumvirate that actu- GERB said that the party will announce its ally rules the state. This thesis repeated nu- candidates in June. According to Tsvetan merous times led to discontent in the GERB Tsvetanov the party has several possible parliamentary group. At the end of March candidates who he believes will be win- the deputy chair of the GERB parliamentary ning ones. The presidential candidates of group Tsveta Karayancheva urged the Prime the party will be comprised of people with Minister Boyko Borisov to come to the Na- authority, well-known, with a wide public tional Assembly and to explain how long and non-partisan support, said Tsvetanov. Radan Kanev and DSB will be part of the Tsvetanov refused to reply to the question incumbents, since they are in opposition. In as to whether the party plans to raise the her opinion the GERB parliamentary group candidacy of the current president Rosen insists that the Prime Minister should take Plevneliev for a second mandate. Tsvetanov measures to dismiss the representatives of highly appreciates the mandate of Plevne- DSB from leading state appointments. GERB liev, but said that in the future GERB will came out with a list of DSB supporters that rely on renewal of the presidential couple, continue to hold high-ranking state posi- which led to various speculations on the ex- tions – in ministries, agencies and boards act meaning behind his words. of state-owned companies. GERB accused Radan Kanev and DSB of behaving schizo- 2.2.2. Reformist Bloc phrenically. The party expressed its aston- The contradictions in the RB reached their ishment and discontent with DSB’s behav- culmination in the first quarter of the year. iour – according to the representatives of As mentioned before, DSB announced that GERB, it is not possible to be in opposition it will be in opposition. Despite this the par- and at the same time to have cabinet min- ty Leader Radan Kanev continues to be the isters, deputy ministers, regional governors, co-chairman of the RB parliamentary group, and advisers in political cabinets. which placed the party in a situation which B AROMETE R 1/2016 7

is strange at first glance – to be both in op- meeting of DSB. position and part of the incumbents simul- The DSB National Meeting came out taneously. The healthcare minister did not with the decision for the party to stay with- resign after all, although sources within DSB in the Reformist Bloc for the time being and claim that he was asked to do so. Moskov gave Radan Kanav and the MPs a mandate continues to be member of the party and to work towards “bringing back the bloc to Radan Kanev stated on numerous occasions the commitments pledged to the voters dur- that the party will support the reform start- ing the 2014 elections”. Part of the struc- ed by him. tures headed by DSB-Varna and DSB-Sofia At this point MPs from the civil quota region insisted that the party should leave of the bloc such as Grozdan Karadzhov, the coalition immediately. The delegates Martin Dimitrov and Peter Slavov, gravitate approved a resolution with a great majority towards Radan Kunev’s and DSB’s position. confirming that the party is in opposition, Thus almost half of RB’s MPs have declared and assigning to the national leadership the that they are in opposition. BZNS, with De- task of cooperating with other parties from fence Minister Nikolay Nenchev as leader, the bloc for “organisational consolidation are believed to be closer to DSB and Radan and its opening to new voters and civil or- Kanev than to BCM of Meglena Kouneva. ganisations”. The other camp, comprising parties that The meeting approved amendments to are adamantly in support of the govern- the statute regulations. It was decided that ment are Bulgaria for its Citizens Movement in the future the ousting of a member of (BCM) and UDF. Megelena Kouneva strong- DSB should be possible only with the sanc- ly criticized Radan Kanev and declared that tion of the regional organisation of which the only true co-chairman of the RB group he is a member and not by a decision of is Ivaylo Zelenogorski. Kouneva said that a 7-member panel of the National Arbi- politics is for mature people and not for trage, as is the case now. The delegates those who are unclear about their own be- attempted to postpone the passing of the haviour. The leader of UDF and Minister of amendments to the statute regulations by Economy Bozhidar Lukarski was even more six months, but they were finally approved. extreme and described DSB’s position as Radan Kanev stated that he is consider- schizophrenic behaviour. ing the option to run for president at the DSB stated that their main goal contin- presidential elections in the autumn. How- ues to be the profound and radical judici- ever, he did not rule out also the possibility ary reform. Radan Kanev declared that the of a joint right-wing candidacy. This would state is in the hands of the mafia and there depend both on GERB’s actions and on the is a deep political crisis. At the beginning of decisions to be taken by the other parties January Kanev announced that he will work from the RB. for the setting up of a new right-wing political project uniting people and parties who 2.2.3. Patriotic Front are not part of the status quo, and who The position of the PF coalition was con- desire real change. However, to date this solidated after the crisis within the RB. Al- project has been more or less frozen, which though the coalition does not have an ac- is evident from the recently held national tual representation in executive power, but 8 B AROMETE R 1/2016

has only declared its support for the incum- insurance model. The PF urged that a na- bents, its influence will mark an increase. tional debate on the introduction of military Once again during the current quarter the training of the Bulgarian citizens and even PF proved that it stands firmly behind the reinstating conscription should be held. incumbents and on important key votes in parliament gave its support to the gov- 2.2.4. ABV ernment. As a whole the two main parties At the beginning of the year ABV presented that constitute the Patriotic Front coalition the idea for amendment of the Constitution – NFSB and VMRO continue to have cer- pertaining to the president’s rights and the tain disagreements, but in the name of the eligibility requirements for the presidential coalition’s integrity they manage to over- candidates. ABV believes that it must not come them for the time being. VMRO’s be mandatory for the president to be born leader Krasimir Karakachanov holds more in Bulgaria, to have Bulgarian citizenship moderate right-centre positions, while the and to have lived in the country in the past chairman of the NFSB Valeri Simeonov is five years. Another proposal concerning the quite extreme in his nationalistic manner of functions of the president is for the presi- speaking. dent to have the right of direct initiation of This quarter the PF focused on some im- a referendum without the need to receive portant topics related to the long-term per- approval by parliament. The party insists spective for the development of the coun- that new more complex mechanisms for try. Something of significance for the PF is overthrowing the president’s veto should the overcoming the demographic crisis in be found. the country. According to Krasimir Karak- ABV was the first party to start the de- achanov this is a matter of national security, bate on the presidential elections in the because if the tendencies from the past few country and on the character of the fu- years persist, the country will experience se- ture president. At this stage the party has rious difficulties in its overall development – not announced its candidacy, although a lack of labour force, an aging population, Georgi Parvanov stated that the Deputy and burdened social and pension systems. Prime Minister Ivaylo Kalfin would be a This tendency, combined with marginali- good a president. Parvanov himself noted sation and social exclusion of the minority that, according to him, there are no bar- communities in the country, will lead to cat- riers for him to run for president because astrophic consequences for Bulgaria, which according to him the Constitution poses will be felt in the next 10 years. restrictions only for two consecutive man- Once again the PF placed emphasis on dates. However, this is an interpretation the fight against crime. According to the which is not popular among the major- VMRO leader the marginalisation of the ity of constitutional law specialists, who Roma community is amongst the core rea- are categorical that a president can be sons for the higher crime rate in the small elected for two mandates only, regardless towns and villages. According to Karak- whether they are consecutive or not. achanov additional measures for improv- This quarter too ABV supported the ing the safety in the small settlements are government, but at the same time did not needed as well as amendments of the social spare its criticism on a number of topics. B AROMETE R 1/2016 9

For example, the party believes that there the achievements over the years. Her main is no dialogue among the parties that sup- goal will be to lead the party towards gov- port the government, the decisions are tak- ernance of the country and to revive its en unilaterally and at the last second and self-confidence again. the partners are just informed of the fact of The MP from BSP Krasimir Yankov also their passing without actually participating stated that he will run for the chairmanship in the discussions. ABV expressed the posi- of the party. According to him, now the left is tion that the Development Council, which faced with one main issue - whether the sta- plays the role of a coalition council which tus quo will be preserved, or BSP will change. has to discuss important strategic issues He expressed certainty that BSP will change and take decisions, does not function and is after the congress, because the socialists are rarely summoned. According to ABV, with- the only alternative to current right-wing out dialogue the majority will be faced with governance. According to him, BSP has lost the impossible task of taking competent de- public support, and this is mainly due to the cisions and this will also hold back the work negativisms accumulated from the time when of the legislative power. Plamen Oresharski headed the government. Yankov has minimal chances of winning the 2.2. Trends in the Parliamentary party’s leadership post. It seems that the main Opposition battle for the leadership will be between the present chairman Mihail Mikov and Kornelia 2.2.1. Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) Ninova. The declaration 125 Years BSP was drafted The congress will be held on May 7th during the BSP National Council meeting and 8th and by the end of March the local held at the end of March. The declaration organisations have to nominate their candi- establishes the main features of the party dates for chairman. as the party of the people of labour. In their During the past quarter BSP assumed declaration the socialists affirm that BSP is a some important legislative initiatives. For party which has survived many transitions but example, the parliamentary group submit- is not a transitory party. BSP’s present calling, ted a proposal for repealing flat tax and as a left-wing national party, is “to guarantee introduction of progressive income tax. a dignified life for everyone, without humili- The idea is implemented in the draft law ating poverty and fear of tomorrow, to mod- on amendment of the Personal Income ernize the economy of the country and to up- Tax Law. The amendment envisages as of hold the interests of Bulgaria.” January 1st, 2017 labour income, after the Already in BSP there is intense prepa- compulsory social insurance deduction, to ration for the forthcoming congress which be non-taxable up to the limit of the min- will elect the party’s chairman. At the end imum working wage. The monthly labour of March Kornelia Ninova announced that income up to BGN 1000 should be taxed at she will run for the chairmanship. Ninova 10% for the difference above the minimum was nominated by a number of BSP struc- monthly wage. BSP proposes that the tax tures and stated that she will transform for incomes between BGN 1000 and 2000, BSP into a real alternative to the right-wing should be 15% for the difference above parties in the country, and will improve on BGN 1000. Those who receive an income 10 B AROMETE R 1/2016

between BGN 2000 and 5000 would pay from the podium of the National Assembly 20% tax on their incomes above BGN 2000. after the shooting down of the Russian mil- In the motives to the draft law BSP states itary jet by the Turkish air force. In the same that the proposed amendment makes a declaration Mestan justified the incident at more just distribution of the weight of the the Turkish-Syrian border and judged Rus- personal income tax for people with dif- sia’s actions in connection with the violation ferent professions. The existing flat tax is of the Turkish air space. Dogan described a factor leading to deepening of the so- Mestan’s position as hasty and leading to cial-economic inequality, which creates so- possible negative consequences for Bulgar- cial instability. ia, which is geographically located in a re- The demographic crisis is another issue gion with a history of geopolitical conflicts which BSP considers to be a priority and between Russia and Turkey. needs to be solved. The Party Leader Mihail After the information about the Mikov proposed to the president to sum- criticisms made by Ahmed Dogan became mon a meeting of the Consultative Council public knowledge, Liutvi Mestan decided on National Security in connection to the to go to the Turkish Embassy and this gave demographic crisis in Bulgaria. In reply the cause for rumours of an alleged spy affair in president underlined that already the topics the public. Mestan justified his visit to the to be discussed by the council have been embassy with the motive that he wanted to planned for 2016 and one of them will guarantee his personal safety and that of be specifically on demographic issues. The his family, as he felt threatened after find- negative demographic trends create a risk ing out that he was no longer guarded by for the economic and social environment the national service for protection. During in the country and BSP urges that concrete this scandal it became known that the Prime measures must be taken. Minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu had During this quarter BSP expressed con- called the Bulgarian Prime Minister Borisov cern about the financial debt of the country, regarding the scandal within the MRF in as well as the lack of real reforms in health- order to protect Mestan. Borisov said that care, education and the pension system. he categorically refused to take any sides whatsoever in an inter-party conflict. 2.2.2 Movement for Rights and However, these events raised the ques- Freedoms (MRF) tion of the influence of Turkey and the The ousting of Liutvi Mestan from the post Turkish representatives in the internal af- chairman of the MRF at the end of last year fairs of the country. The media stated that was the event which determined the devel- MRF representatives received telephone opment of the political situation in the party calls from the diplomatic mission of Turkey during the past quarter. Mestan was ousted in Bulgaria telling them that if they did not from the leader’s post and expelled from the back up Mestan, Turkey would forever be party after criticisms made by the honorary closed for them. chairman of the movement Ahmed Dogan Subsequently the Turkish media report- at the traditional New Year’s gathering of ed that Ahmed Dogan and Delyan Peevski MRF. The formal cause for Dogan’s criticism are banned from entering Turkey. This in- was the declaration read by Liutvi Mestan formation was neither confirmed, nor de- B AROMETE R 1/2016 11

nied by the Turkish Embassy in Sofia. A list names of the three co-chairmen, another of persons connected to MRF was published name mentioned as a possible new leader too, who are also allegedly banned from of MRF is that of the MEP Filiz Hyusmenova. entering Turkey. A number of represent- At the end of February Liutvi Mestan atives of MRF, however, said that the list is commenced the process of founding a new a fabrication as they have entered Turkey party by summoning a constituent assem- unimpeded after its publication. bly. The new party will be called Democrats Regarding the ousting of Mestan, for Responsibility, Freedom and Tolerance Ahmed Dogan made a statement via his (Bulgarian abbreviation DOST). The mean- press attaché saying that “everyone who ing of DOST in Turkish is “friend”. In his is against the national interests of Bulgaria address to the constituent assembly Mestan will share the same fate.” In turn Mestan expressed his expectations that the found- declared that he has fallen victim to the ing of DOST will meet with severe resist- conflict between Turkey and Russia. Ac- ance. He even expects that the registration cording to him as Leader of MRF he tried to of the new party will be blocked and in his prevent the party from becoming the image words, it would be the result of the circu- of a “pro-Russian oligarchic party”. lation of “the myth of the national traitor The MPs Hussein Hafuzov, Shaba- who is founding a new pro-Turkish party”. nali Durmush, Mariana Georgieva, Vent- Mestan discarded this myth. He avowed sislav Kaymakanov and Aydogan Ali stood that on November 25th he read, on behalf by Liutvi Mestan. They were expelled from of the parliamentary group of the MRF, a the parliamentary group of the MRF and are declaration which expressed NATO and currently independent MPs. Mestan also re- Euro-Atlantic values, in connection with ceived the support of the regional leader the shooting down of the Russian military of MRF in Kardhzali and mayor of Dzhebel plane by the Turkish air force. According to Bahri Omer, who is one of the most influen- Mestan, Dogan put an equal sign between tial politicians in the party. the pro-NATO position expressed in the After the ousting of Liutvi Mestan declaration and the pro-Turkish one, and in from the party, the leadership of the MRF fact by doing so he obliged the pro-Russian was given to three co-chairmen – Chetin Ka- sentiments in society. Mestan described zak, Rushen Riza, Mustafa Karadayi – all three Ahmed Dogan’s address as “a watershed of them are MPs. They will be leaders of the of values which divided the movement’s set party until the holding of the national confer- of values”. According to him, MRF’s model ence, which has to elect a new leader. is exhausted and the final countdown has It became known in March that started. Mestan’s aim is for DOST to be- most of the structures of the party implore come the “true, authentic, liberal party” of Ahmed Dogan once again to take the lead- Bulgaria in the name of the cherished na- ership. According to the MP from the MRF tional, democratic and patriotic cause. Ac- Hassan Ademov, Dogan is not willing to cording to him, this will be a party that will head the operative organ of the party once unite and will not lead to dissension among again and will continue to be an honorary the Bulgarian citizens. In Mestan’s opinion leader of MRF. At this point it is not clear “DOST will be a party introducing radical who will be the leader – apart from the change, a NATO and Euro-Atlantic oriented 12 B AROMETE R 1/2016

party. It will be friends with all NATO Mem- co-chairperson of the parliamentary group ber States and its EU allies”. Dr Krasimira Kovachka, the healthcare re- Unlike the new party of Liutvi Mestan, form is conducted in piece and there is a which will evidently have the support of the lack of systematic approach. In her opinion incumbents in Turkey, traditionally the MRF the refusal of the professional organisations will rely on closer friendly relations with the to sign the framework agreement only goes Turkish opposition republican parties. It is to show that the dialogue between the not by chance that at the end of March health ministry and the doctors’ union is not the co-chairmen of MRF Rushen Riza and at the desired level. According to Kovachka Chetin Kazak met with the Leader of the the most problematic area is the status of Republic People’s Party in Turkey Kemal the municipal healthcare, where there is an Kılıçdaroğlu in Ankara. He asserted the im- even greater deficit of doctors and nurses portance of keeping the unity of the party, and qualified staff, as well as lack of equip- which is of great significance for the minor- ment, which leads to access to high qual- ities it stands for. The main emphasis in the ity healthcare only in municipal centres. talks was the speculations in the past few She believes that it is necessary to set up a months regarding MRF and the furthering mechanism for co-financing of the munici- of the amicable relations between Bulgaria pal hospitals from the municipal budgets. and Turkey. The representatives of MRF in- BDC is categorically in favour of and vited Kılıçdaroğlu to attend the forthcom- supports the reform in the legal system. ing national party conference to be held on According to Rumen Yonchev, fast and de- April 24th, 2016. cisive action must be taken with regard to The MRF leadership represented by its the endorsement of the Law on the Judici- co-chairmen began touring the party’s lo- ary System. In his opinion it is necessary to cal structures in order to prevent a divide bring down the tension in the legal system, within the party. In their opinion MRF will because the magistrates themselves are remain united and there will be no outflow tired of the debate on the reform. Accord- of supporters towards Mestan’s new party. ing to Yonchev, some of the political parties in the country abuse the debate on the legal 2.2.3. Bulgarian Democratic Centre (BDC) system and by doing so raise the degree of During this quarter as before, BDC contin- tension, and this is not in favour of bringing ued to observe the behaviour of construc- composure to the system. Regarding the tive opposition to the incumbents. The par- anti-corruption law sponsored by Meglena liamentary group remained united, despite Kouneva BDC expressed grave reluctance. the existence of two political entities in it The parliamentary group is worried by the – Bulgarian Democratic Centre (renamed fact that the new anti-corruption authority to Leader Party) and the People’s Union, might prove to be an instrument to be used connected to the MPs Svetlin Tanchev and for purely political goals. Rumen Yonchev. BDC expressed a number BDC declared that it will propose of concerns regarding the reforms conduct- amendments to the Election Code in the ed by the government and the ruling ma- part for extension of the election campaign. jority. The most criticised sphere by them According to them, the proposal for the is the healthcare reform. According to the time of the campaign to be reduced to 21 B AROMETE R 1/2016 13

days makes it immaterial and insufficient. the scandals surrounding the party and its leader, “Ataka” preserves its chances of 2.2.4. “Ataka” passing the four percent barrier during pos- During the past quarter “Ataka” did not sible early parliamentary elections. show any noteworthy parliamentary presence and its leader Volen Siderov restrained 2.3. Positions of the parties on foreign his media appearances. The reasons for this and European policy are the legal actions against him for hoo- During this quarter there has been tension liganism. It became known at the end of in the diplomatic relations between Bulgar- March that Volen Siderov and his deputy ia and Turkey. The cause of this tension has Desislav Chukalov pleaded guilty on four arisen around the events in MFR, as well as cases and struck a plea bargain with the concerns that the Turkish diplomatic mis- prosecution. Both of them have been re- sion is interfering in the domestic affairs of leased on probation and sentenced to pub- the country. Bulgaria declared Uğur Emiroğ- lic service. Siderov was sentenced to 100 lu, an attaché in the Turkish Consulate days public service and deduction of part of General in Burgas a persona non grata. The his salary. After the court’s ruling, the leader cause for this decision was activities carried of “Ataka” leader commented that being out which were incompatible with the Vi- sentenced to public service is not a problem enna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. for him, because his entire work in the past The Turkish diplomat Uğur Emiroğlu was years can be qualified as public service. The accredited as an attaché on social affairs, leader of “Ataka” expressed his indignation while during most of his stay in Bulgaria he that monuments and buildings in Sofia, part engaged in religious activities. The Turkish of our cultural heritage, are dilapidated and Ambassador to Sofia has also received a in need of more serious attention on behalf warning from Bulgaria’s Ministry of Foreign of the state. He added that he would make Affairs. a proposal to his colleagues in parliament to In an answer to a question during Par- partake in the cleaning of the monuments liamentary Control, asked by the MP from and said that he could even hold lectures “Ataka” Professor Stanislavov concerning dedicated to the historical figures depicted the behavior of the Turkish ambassador and on them. other Turkish diplomats, Minister of Foreign Siderov commented that the country Affairs Daniel Mitov replied: “I have left my needs a profound legal reform. In his opin- Turkish college Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu to decide ion there should be greater accountability whether the presence of Ambassador Sü- of the prosecution, but the incumbents lack leyman Gökçe is beneficial to our relations.” clear vision on the real judicial reform that The tension in the relations between the is needed at present. Siderov described the two countries reached its culmination when reforms in education, healthcare, admin- the National Assembly decided to set up an istration as chaotic and without concrete ad hoc parliamentary committee of inquiry, analysis of both the state of the systems and tasked to check whether or not Turkey, as the effect that is attempted to be achieved. well as Russia, is interfering in the domestic Public opinion polls conducted by differ- affairs of Bulgaria. This committee was cre- ent agencies in March show that, despite ated after a proposal from the MRF, which 14 B AROMETE R 1/2016

was supported by GERB, BSP, PF and BDC. ing to him Bulgaria has not become “a more The creation of the committee led to a wealthy and developed state”. Today the sharp reaction from Russia, which accused country, continued the Leader of “Ataka”, is Bulgaria of “neo-McCarthyism”. threatened by thousands of migrants, situat- Prime Minister Borisov stated that the ed close to our boarders and the European committee harms the bilateral relations of Commission “can’t do anything about it.” Bulgaria with both Russia and Turkey and Siderov stated that the country should “start urged the MPs to dismiss it. Rumen Petkov preparations to first leave NATO, because our from ABV said that “the committee won’t membership there threatens us more than it produce anything constructive for our coun- protects us”. After that it is necessary to leave try, but it will raise unnecessary questions in the EU, which “causes harm and destroys the our already tense relations with Turkey and sovereignty of Bulgaria.” As an alternative to unnecessary questions and problems in our NATO and EU membership Siderov pointed to relations with Russia.” Following the Prime the Eurasian Union, in which Bulgaria will re- Minister’s position, the MPs from GERB ceive, according to him, protection from “the reconsidered their decision. At the end of great state of Russia, which liberated us from March, following a vote in the National As- Turkish rule.” sembly, the committee was dismissed. GERB considers that the migrant crisis During this quarter BSP upheld its po- brings about great challenges for the EU. Uni- sition that the EU sanctions against Russia lateral actions for coping with the crisis do not must be lifted, because they are unproduc- work and the closing of the internal borders tive and Bulgaria has suffered great eco- within the Union is not a solution. GERB’s po- nomic losses. This view was also supported sition is that a consensus must be reached be- by ABV and “Ataka”. tween the Member States, and the solidarity During this quarter “Ataka” continued of the Union must be upheld. with its now traditional positions in the field of foreign affairs and European poli- 3. Public Opinion tics. State Duma MP Nicolai Valuchev, from A survey conducted by Alfa Research in Feb- the “United Russia” party, awarded Volen ruary shows that electoral attitudes remain Siderov an honorary medal on behalf of steady and there are no significant changes the Russian War Veterans Committee for in the arrangement of the major political par- his contribution to the relations between ties in the country. GERB has lost 3% of the Bulgaria and Russia. This happened during voters’ support compared to November of the annual rally of “Ataka” in honor of the last year, but keeps first place (21.3%). With country’s national holiday, marked on the 10.4% BSP remains the second political pow- 3rd of March. The rally’s motto was “Bul- er. MRF suffered a decline from 6.8%, as of garian-Russian friendship from centuries for last November, to 4.9% at present. This de- centuries.” “Ataka” supporters took down cline is most probably due to the shock the the European Union flag from the pylons in party’s traditional electorate suffered after the front of the National Palace of Culture. In events surrounding Liutvi Mestan’s ousting front of the participants in the rally Sider- from the party. A slight decline of support for ov stated that after 9 years in the EU “we the Reformist Bloc is also observed – around clearly see that this union is a fraud”. Accord- 5% would support the block in eventual early B AROMETE R 1/2016 15

parliamentary elections. PF, ABV and “Ataka” lenges the government will face in the fol- retain their chances of entry into the next Na- lowing days and months. The shutting down tional Assembly. of the so called Balkan route might lead to Alfa Research survey shows that 58.6% redirecting the migrant flux towards Bulgar- of the population, despite the progress made ia. The government is undertaking preventive in various spheres, see corruption as grow- measures to guard our southern border and, ing, justice as absent, and that this situation if needed, reinforcements from the Bulgarian benefits a small group to the disadvantage army will be sent. of society. Only 22.3% believe that, despite Despite the crisis in the ruling coalition some few impediments, corruption does not after DSB’s decision to become opposition, harm the overall positive development of the the majority seems stable. At this point none country. 62.2% of Bulgarians think that the of the parties will benefit from early parlia- most serious problems in the justice system mentary elections. However, the situation is are hidden at the top levels, because there greatly dynamic and even one change in the the high-level corruption is covered up suc- environment with regard to the thousands of cessfully. migrants gathered close to our southern bor- A survey by Exacta, conducted in early der, could trigger a political crisis. March, shows the attitudes of the Bulgarian 2. GERB’s government stands stable. citizens towards the European institutions The internal party’s mobilisation is at its max- and their expectations for the future. Accord- imum in support of the government. Despite ing to the survey, Bulgarian citizens remain the criticism from the opposition, neither BSP some of the biggest euro optimists among the and MRF, nor DSB can be viewed as a seri- Member States. More than 70% of those sur- ous alternative to GERB at this point of time. veyed approve the country’s membership in the Prime Minister Borisov strengthened his for- EU and believe that it brings more positives than eign policy positions due to the significance negatives. Only one fifth of the population has of the state with regard to the migrant crisis a negative attitude towards the union. Most and the protection of the external border of often the negative attitudes come from the left the EU. The priorities of GERB are continuing and nationalist voters. The survey shows that the reforms and preserving the political stabil- during last year approval for Bulgaria’s member- ity of the country. The party declared that its ship in NATO has risen 11% - from 42 to 53%. next big goal is the winning of the presiden- Most probably, this is due to the ongoing mili- tial elections in the autumn. The candidates of tary conflicts in proximity to the country and the the party have not been made known at this global challenges connected to terrorism and point and most probably this will happen at the migrant crisis. the beginning of summer. According to the survey, the optimists for 3. The Reformist Bloc continues to exist the future of the county are 43%, while the more in theory than in practice. The processes pessimists are 46%. of division within it are now more and more visible after the decision of the DSB to be in 4. Main Conclusions and Forecasts opposition. Currently the struggle of the par- 1. The migrant crisis was one of the main top- ties from the bloc are for who will keep the ics that shaped the political situation in the Reformist Bloc trademark. This is one of the country. This will be one of the greatest chal- reasons why DSB is taking such an undefined 16 B AROMETE R 1/2016

position – on one hand to be in opposition tract the current supporters of the movement. and, on the other to remain in the parliamen- It is difficult to estimate what the effect will tary group. Most probably the RB will dissolve be from an electoral point of view for MRF at ultimately with the nearing of the presidential this point. The public is left with the feeling elections. It is not likely that the bloc will sup- that Mestan’s new party has the support of port a joint presidential candidacy. the incumbents in Turkey, although the for- 4. The Patriotic Front preserved its elec- mer chairman of MRF denies this. toral influence during this quarter too. The 8. BDC continues to play the role of con- coalition will gain more and more influence structive opposition. BDC gave its support to in governance with a view to the split in the the government during votes of key impor- RB and despite the fact that the representa- tance. On other issues, however, such as the tives of the PF do not participate directly in reform in healthcare, education and social the government. We should not exclude the policy, the formation continues to be excep- possibility that at a certain point in time the tionally critical. PF will demand to be included officially in the 9. During the past quarter “Ataka” re- governance of the country. strained its public appearances. Most proba- 5. In the same way as with the PF, ABV’s bly the reasons for this are the legal actions position in the ruling majority will strengthen against the Party Leader Volen Siderov, who more and more as GERB will no longer be was released on probation after striking a able to depend on the support of part of the plea bargain with the prosecution. At this RB. With this the claims and political demands point it is not clear whether Siderov’s sentence of ABV towards GERB and the government will have a negative effect on the party from will become greater. At this point there is a an electoral point of view. The public opinion very slight chance for unification of the left polls show that, for the time being, the party and coming out with a joint presidential can- retains its chance of entering parliament dur- didacy. The relations between ABV and BSP ing possible early elections. remain complex and at times even hostile. 6. An internal party priority of the BSP is the forthcoming congress at the beginning of May. It seems that the main battle will be between the present leader Mihail Mikov and Kornelia Ninova. The congress will be of great importance for BSP and will show whether the party can manage to emerge from the political stalemate which it has been experi- About the editor: encing for the second consecutive year. 7. The events which occurred in MRF were Professor, Ph.D. Georgi Karasimeonov unexpected for nearly everyone and led to a teaches at Sofia University “St. Clement of crisis within the party. The forthcoming con- Ochrid”, Director of the Institute for Politi- gress of MRF, which has to elect a new lead- cal and Legal Studies. From 1991 to 1998 he er, will show to a great extent whether the was President of the Bulgarian Association party will be able to preserve its unity or the for Political Science. new party of Liutvi Mestan – DOST, will at- Contact: [email protected] Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) B A R O M E T E R Bulgaria’s Political Parties Year 16, Issue 1, January-March 2016

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