Norwalk Public Schools 10-Year Enrollment Projections
Originally written in June 2019
Revised june 2020
Prepared for:
Norwalk Public Schools
NORWALK. Public Schools
Prepared by:
~!~ MILONE & MACBROOM Executive Summary Milone & MacBroom, Inc. (MMI) was engaged to prepare an Enrollment Update for Norwalk Public Schools focusing on the district's Pre-kindergarten (PK) through 12th grade schools. The purpose of this report is to update the comprehensive 10 -year enrollment projections with the latest enrollment trends and changes to the school construction program schedule to better understand space requirements and educational programming for the foreseeable future. The comprehensive enrollment projection report has analyzed demographic; housing; and economic trends, characteristics, and forecasts; along with birth data and historic enrollment trends for the Norwalk School District.
In order to continue to implement the recommendations of the 2015-16 School Master Plan, Norwalk Public Schools is applying for state reimbursement for several school construction projects this year. The Office of School Construction Grant & Review (OSCGR) requires enrollment projections covering at least an 8-year window for determining reimbursement eligibility and project size for school co nstruction projects. Projections must be both districtwide and school based. This projection report is intended to fulfill the districtwide enrollment projections requirement as well as the sc hool-based requirement for the planned construction projects to achieve Norwalk's educational vision.
As part of the Master Plan, Norwalk will be furthering their intra-district choice programming options, introducing PreK-8 schools and ultimately meshing choice with neighborhood programming to improve delivery of programming and diversity across the district.
To support this vision, Norwalk Public Schools will be seeking state reimbursement for the school construction program including the Cranbury Elementary School and Norwalk High School projects. Key Findings Using federal, state, local, and private sources of information, the initial demographic, housing, and economic analysis informs enrollment projections and helps the school district to plan accordingly. Key findings from the demographics and housing analysis are as follows:
~ Norwalk's population grew by 4.6% between 2010 and 2017, a faster growth rate to Connecticut as a whole, but equal to the rate of Fairfield County. ~ Norwalk experienced a large out-migration of young adults (age 30 to 39) between 2010 and 2017.
~ Women of childbearing age (ages 15 to 44) decreased 1.7% overall; the younger cohorts (ages 15 to 29) decreased by 3.1% while the older cohorts (age 30 to 44) declined by 5.3%. ~ Births in Norwalk declined by 6% between 2010 and 2018. Over the last 10 years, there has been an average of 1,181 births per year. Births are projected to remain stable up to 2023, staying between approximately 1,000 and 1,200 per year.
~ Housing permit activity has rebounded from its recent low of 40 units permitted in 2011. In the last three years, nearly 1,000 new housing units are permitted, including several large multifamily developments.
In addition, a comprehensive enrollment analysis provided the basis for projecting enrollments. The key enrollment trends identified are as follows:
~ Enrollments have rebounded from lows in the mid-2000s and have continued to grow.
~ Total PK-12 enrollments are up 7.8% from total enrollments of a decade ago (2009-10), from 10,856 students in 2009-10 to 11,705 students in the 2019-20 school year.
~ Over the last decade, enrollment increased across all grade cohorts. Elementary school enrollments (PK-5) increased by 1.3% while middle school and high school enrollments each increased by 14.3% and 13.5%, respectively.
~ Milone & MacBroom, Inc. generated a modified cohort-survival model to project future enrollment scenarios through 2029-30 in a low, medium, and high-growth scenario. These scenarios all project continued growth for the next five years, and a total enrollment change out ten years ranging from 9.9% growth to a .1% loss depending on the various growth models and underlying assumptions. The high growth scenario, which aligns with the recent growth trends in housing and in-
3 migration, is likely to most accurately reflect future conditions in Norwalk Public Schools.
~ Total enrollments are projected to increase over the next 10 years, with a projected 9.9% increase by the 2029-30 school year.
~ Over the next 10 years, elementary school (PK-5) enrollments are projected to increase by 3.1 %, middle school (6-8) enrollments are projected to increase by 5.6%, and high school (9-12) enrollments to increase by 20.7%.
4 Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...... 2
Demographic Overview ...... 6
Employment Trends ...... 10
Birth Trends ...... 11
Housing ...... 16
Trends in the Plan of Conservation and Development...... 20
Enrollment History and Trends ...... 20
Enrollment Projections ...... 31
Appendix A: Detailed Projections ...... 46
Appendix 8: School Planned School Construction & Configuration Changes ...... 60 Demographic Overview The total population of Norwalk increased from 84,611 in 2010 to 88,537 in 2017, a gain of approximately 4.6%. By comparison, Fairfield County's population increased by 4.6% and Connecticut's population increased by 1.4% over the same period of time.
Norwalk's change in population Norwalk Population Change, 2010- 2017 between 2010 and 2017 was 85 years and over I I experienced unevenly across 80 to 84 years I II 75 to 79 years I different age groups. The age-by-sex 70 to 74 years I I I 65 to 69 years I I I pyramid (right) shows how the 60 to 64 years I II representation of age cohorts 55 to 59 years I I I 50 to 54 years I I I changed between Census years. The 45 to 49 years I I 40 to 44 years I I most immediately apparent trend is 35 to 39 years I I 30 to 34 years I I the consistent increase in the size of 25 to 29 years I cohorts between SO and 74 years of 20 to 24 years I I I u 15 to 19 years I I I age coupled with a decrease in the 10 to 14 years I I I 5 to 9 years I lj number of adults in the prime age Under 5 years I I range (20 to 44 yea rs) for having ·4,500 -3,500 -2,500 -1,500 -500 500 1.500 2,500 3,500 4,500 younger school-age children. D Male 2017 D Female 2017 Male 2010 Female 2010
As a result, Norwalk's median age increased since 2010, ri sing from 38.2 to 39.2 yea rs of age in 201 7. The school-age population declined slightly among younger students (5 to 9 years) but increased among 10 to 19-year-olds. The net effect has been an increase in older school-age families since 2010.
A more detailed look at the distribution of these children is provided in Change in Number of Students map. (Note that "school-age children" includes children enrolled in non-public and other public schools as well as Norwalk Public Schools.) Changes in school-age population are strongly polarized, with the most urban areas within South Norwalk (SoNo) and Central Norwalk seeing increases in school age children, while neighborhoods, including Prospect Hill, Silvermine, Spring Hill, and Rowayton, experienced decreases of a similar magnitude. It should be noted that the demographic makeup of SoNo and Central Norwalk might contribute to Census under-reporting and the changes may not reflect the enrollment trends in these neighborhood schools. Changes in the number of Change in Females of Child Bearing Age females of childbearing age from 2010 to 2017 (ages 18 to 44) in Norwalk are 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 depicted in the figure below. As an indicator of potential future 18 and 19 years -=:]290 births, this age group of female 20 years 14 residents declined by 4.6% 21 years .:J 103 i . • • from 2010 to 2017.1t should be 22 to 24 years 202
. 0 • 25 to 29 years I 0 • -10 noted that the losses are 30 to 34 years r : . . • 156 largely driven by females in the 35 to 39 years •••1.007 35 to 44 age cohorts, whereas 40 to 44 years -506 nominal growth was experienced by females. • 2010 D 2017 Scmne US Clo5111 '010 Amerrmn Commumt Stlf .,.,, '017
Population projections from the Connecticut State Data Center and the Connecticut Department of Transportation (DOT) show extremely similar projections for future growth. While each of these agencies employs different projection methodology, both predict increases of approxi mately 2,700 persons per decade in the next 25 years. Given the ongoing growth in Norwalk's housing stock (discussed in greater detail below), these projections represent a plausible picture of steady population growth for the city. Norwalk Observed Population and Population Projections, 1980 - 2040 100,000 93,820 95,000
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
6s,ooo
6o,ooo 1970 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 .....Historic _._MMI CTSDC -- CTDOT ~Oilf(,. Allwtir 1111 Com~ttrlllill' Surwy 2017, ( r /J01 CT ~11r
Norwalk is a highly diverse community, with nearly 48% of residents identifying as a racial or ethnic minority group in 2017. However, the city's white non-Hispanic population is disproportionately concentrated in outlying neighborhoods, including Rowayton, West Norwalk, Silvermine, and Cranbury, while many areas of the urban core neighborhoods of So No and Central Norwalk are majority-minority. Change in Number of Students per Sq. Mile from 2013-14 to 2018-19 .. -1,015--250
~ -249--75 CJ -74-75 ~ 76-249 .. 250 - 998
FoxRun ~
•
~·~ MILONE& Change in Number of Students, 2013-15 to 2018-19 ~ MACBROOM 0.3 0.9 N Norwalk Enrollment Updates 0 0.6 195 Church St Miles 7th Floor Norwalk Public Schools - New Haven, CT 06510 A 203-271-1773 1 in = 0.92 miles Employment Trends Norwalk's unemployment rate has followed a similar trend to Fairfield County. As shown on the chart below, unemployment had been slow to recover since it peaked in 2010 at 8.4%.; however, prior to the COVI D-19 pandemic, both Fairfield County and Norwalk were approaching full employment. Non-seasonally adjusted average annual unemployment was 3.4% as of December 2019. The lasting impact of pandemic-related spike in unemployment is uncertain at this time.
Norwalk & Fa irfi eld County Unemployment 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.0 .,.;7.8~===::::~...;7.8 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
- Fairfield County - Norwalk
Sowre CT lJf'/JIIfllllr>nl ol Lohor
The following chart provides a comparison of unemployment rates against histori c school enrollments (the 2019 year compares the 2019 average annual unemployment and the 2019-20 school year). While there isn 't a clear correlation between enrollment and unemployment trends, it is important to note the increasing trend in enrollment that accompanied the high unemployment of the Great Recession beginning in 2009. This trend may have been partially attributable to students transferring from private to public schools during the economic downturn. Again, the impacts of the current pandemic-related spike in unemployment are uncertain, but there is a precedent for increasing trends related to elevated unemployment. At the same time, the School District had already experienced an unusual increase in enrollment in 2019-20 (largely due to in-migration as explained later in this report). Average Annual Unemployment & PreK-12 Enrollment
12,000 9% 7.5% 7·8% 7.5% 8% 11,500 7% 6% 5% 11,000 4% 3% 10,500 2% 1% 10,000 I I I 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
- Pl<-12 Total ...,_Unemployment
Birth Trends Annual births to Norwalk resident mothers have experienced a general downward trend over the last decade. This trend aligns with the dip in the number of women of childbearing age in Norwalk, indicating that local births will likely remain below mid- 2000s levels for some time in sp ite of a growing population. While birth rates averaged 1,291 annually between 2000 and 2009, they dropped sharply beginning in 2009 to an average of 1,156 from 2010 to 20 18- a 10.5% decline.
Norwalk Births
1,500
1,400
1,300
,198 1,198 1181 1,200 1 163 ---·- 1,150 1,153 1,151 •
1,100
1,000 The decline in births was contemporaneous with the onset of the Great Recession, which lead to declining birthrates across the nation. Typically, recessions and depressions result in women choosing to delay having children rather than having fewer chi ldren altogether; however, the long-term trend suggests that the birthrate may not return to the levels of the 1990s. The Census Bureau lowered its national population projections partially as a result of lower forecasted birth rates. In addition, some demographers have suggested that as more women enter college, and more households and families increasingly rely on female earnings, fertility rates may remain low.1
Children born in Norwalk in Births by Ethnicity of Mother, 2007 -20 18 100% recent years have been 80% nearly evenly 60% split between non-Hispanic 40% white mothers 20% and mothers of various 0% minority 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 1 2012 2013 201 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 -America n Indian Other/ Unknown - Asian groups, with Black - Hispanic - White Non-Hispanic 58% of 2018 Tlris dutu wos rtpfi!ovctl bv th<• CT VNI HI C. Cer toi11 c/o to vsed in lfn1 study were obtained {rom the DPN and /viM/ tokes ju/1 responsibrlity for analysis ond interpretation oft/lis doto. births reported as minority ethnicities (predominately Hispanic, African-American, and Asian as well as a small number of births to mothers of other racial/ethnic groups). (Note that 2019 data was not available.) Overall, births have trended downward by 2% from 2015 to 2018 among non-Hispanic white mothers. While the number of children born to Hispanic mothers rose between 2015 and 2018 by 6%. The following Births by Attendance Zone map shows the distribution of births in Norwalk from 2010 to 2014. These births correspond to the incoming kindergarten classes of 2015-16 through 2019-20. Centrally located neighborhoods saw the highest concentration of births.
1 Mather, Mark. 2012. Fact Sheet: The Decline in U.S. Fertility, Population Research Bu reau. Birth Year
• 2014 • 2015 • ,/'~ • 2016
• 2017 •• 0 • 2018 ~ ~
Births by Attendance Zone - ~'~ MILONE& ~ MACBROOM 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 N Norwalk Enrollment Update 195 Church St Miles 7th Floor Norwalk Public Schools - New Haven. CT 06510 A 203-271-1773 1 in = 0.87 miles Districtwide, average annual births have stayed relatively consistent since 2011. Five of the twelve attendance zones have experienced a downward trend in births since the early 201 Os, with a decline in births in the last 5 years of available birth records relative to the 5 years prior. The greatest declines in births between these 5-year intervals occurred in the Rowayton, Kendall, and Fox Run. Cranbury, Naramake, and Wolfpit have experienced significant increases in births in the last 5 years of available birth records relative to the 5 years prior.
Comparison of Average Birth Rates Attendance Zone Average 2011-2014 Average 2015-18 Percent Change Rowayton 82 72 -12.2% Kendall 130 117 -10.0% Fox Run 86 80 -7.0% Brookside 108 105 -2.8% Jefferson 145 142 -2.1% Silvermine 110 111 0.9% Tracey 131 135 3.1% Marvin 112 116 3.6% Unassigned 67 71 6.0% Wolfpit 62 68 9.7% Naramake 69 76 10.1% Cranbury 73 83 13.7% Total 1,175 1,176 0.1% Source: Connecticut Department of Public Health. This study was approved by the DPH HIC. MMI assumes full responsibility for analyses and interpretation of the data.
In 2018, births were concentrated in the center of the City (Increase in Number of Births map). Compared to 2013, 2018 saw large increases of births in the Naramake, Silvermine, Jefferson, and Unassigned Attendance Zones.
14 Increase in Number of Births 2013-2018 D 1.1-4.9 CJ s-11.4
8 11.5-21.7
- 21 .8-215.7
FoxRun .
•
Increase in Number of Births per Squa re Mile, 2013- 18 ~f~ MILONE& ~ MACBROOM 0 0.5 N Norwa lk Enrollment Update 195 Church St Mil es 7th Floor Norwa lk Publ ic Schools A New Haven, CT 06510 1 in = 0.96 miles 203-271-1773 Housing According to the POCD, Norwalk has 35,168 housing units (CERC, 2018). From 2010 to 2017, the City's population grew by 4.64% (3,926 people). Over the same time period, the occupancy rate rose from 92.4% to 94.2%. The Home Sale Hot Spot map shows housing unit sales across Norwalk. Housing sa le growth from 2015 to 2018 has been concentrated in So No, Central Norwalk, and the Merritt 7 area.
Two primary indicators of housing market activity in the city, housing sales and housing permits, are shown in the graphs below. The housing market was relatively stable in the 1990s, with between 82 and 160 permits issued annually from 1990 and 1999, averaging 117 permits a year. From 2000 to 2010, several cyc les of intensive homebuilding occurred, with three distinct booms of up to 448 permits issued per year and an average 218 permits over the course of the decade. However, the delayed effect of the Great Recession resulted in a bottoming out in 2010 and 2011. The past 5 years show evidence of the number of permits rising and stabilizing around an average of 280 permits from 2013 to 2017.
Norwa lk Housing Permits by Type 1997-2017
500 448 429 450 • 400 350 • 328 333 350 294 • 300 • • • 230 236 250 205 • 187 • 199 200 151 • 132 116 121 130 • • 150 98 • 107 95 100 • • 67 • • • 40 so • • 0 I -I 1997199819992000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008200920102011 20122013·- 2014 2015 20162017 ~VUICC 1\nnuol HfiiiSing Permll', ( T DECO • 1-Fam Multi-Fam • All Norwalk Housing Sales, 1999 -2019
2,500
1,8441,906 2,000
1,500 1,0001,0171,0601,0611,009 814 __""'!""':'_,...._,_ 1,000
500
0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
- 1 Family - Condo - All
Housing sales recovered from the Great Recession, but not to peak levels that occurred in 1999 and 2005. From 2015 to 2019, housing unit sales remained at a very stable average of about 1,030 per year. Condominiums are a significant portion of Norwalk's housing sales, accounting for between 30% and 46% of sales in any given year. Within the elementary school districts, the most active housing sales markets include Tracey, Rowayton, Fox Run and Silvermine attendance zones.
Single Family and Condo Home Sales
District 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Brookside 9.01 % 9.02% 8.16% 7.83% 8.32%
Cranbury 8.61 % 9.40% 9.01 % 11.43% 9.61 %
Fox Run 10.31 % 9.12% 10.51 % 9. 27% 10.72%
Jefferson 7.01 % 5.51 % 6.75% 7.20% 6.65%
Kendall 9.11 % 8.3 6% 9.01 % 9.00% 8.32%
Marvin 8.61 % 9.88% 9.94% 7.02% 7.58%
Naramake 6.81 % 6.74% 6.10% 6.48% 7.30% Rowayton 12.31% 13.58% 13.51% 13.59% 11.74%
Silvermine 10.51% 10.16% 9.76% 9.27% 9.98%
Tracey 11.21% 11.11% 11.91% 12.60% 12.66%
Unassigned 1.10% 0.76% 0.47% 0.72% 0.74%
Wolfpit 5.41% 6.36% 4.88% 5.58% 6.38%
Based on parcel data provided by the City of Vacant Land in Norwalk Norwalk, the vast majority of developable land has Acres Parcels been developed or committed as open space, leaving just 365 acres of vacant residentially zoned Commercial 99 165
land and an additional 99 acres of vacant Industrial 20 37 commercially zoned land. As Norwalk is a heavily Municipal 157 22 built-out community, new growth will primarily come from redevelopment and infill development. Residential 365 524
Utility 148 18
Total 789 766
18 Home Sales 2015 . 2018 c=J 3.2 - 57.3 c=J 57.4- 108.2 c=J 108.3-194.1 CJ 194.2-811 .3
0
•
~'~ MILON E & Home Sa les per Square M ile, 2015 - 2018 ..: MACBROOM 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 N Norwalk Enroll ment Update 195 Church St Miles 7th Floor Norwalk Pu blic Sc hools - A New Haven, CT 06510 1 in = 0.97 miles 203-271 -1773 Trends in the Plan of Conservation and Development The timeframe of Norwalk's Plan of Conservation and Development (POCD) aligns with the timeframe of this analysis (2019-2029), allowing for these two documents to be in conversation with one another. Many of the goals set forth in the POCD involve housing and development. Namely the creation of more market rate and affordable housing. Units at these price points tend to generate more students than luxury priced units. The POCD also spec ifies maintaining the character of established single-family neighborhoods and promoting diverse housing types in the urban core, transit-oriented locations, mixed-use clusters on major corridors, and in vi llages. From these goals, one can expect populations and enrollment in si ngle-family neighborhoods to remain steady over the next 10 years, while increasing in other neighborhood types.
Enrollment History and Trends Norwalk's school enrollments reversed a decreasing trend during the Great Recession, then levelled off between 2010 and 2013. A similar increasing pattern began in 2014-15, and appeared to be leveling off in 2018-1 9. However, the district experienced its largest single year increase of the last two decades in 20 19-20. The following series of figures shows enrollment trends for grades PK-12 in Norwalk Publ ic Schoo ls, broken down by grade groupings. The historic si ngle-year increase is largely powered by gains at the middle and high sc hool levels, although a period of decline in elementary enrollments also took an upturn in 2019-20.
Total (PK-12) Historic Enrollment 11.800 11,659 11,600 11,4451141 11,32211,346 ' 11,400 11 ,229:..,..e-...- 108 11 111 11,200 11,06211,05011· 11,039 11,05o • 11,07211,091 11,000 - 1o;s9or- ---- m.8 ~ 10,743 10,745 11.072 10,800 10,595 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000
- PK-12Total - - PK-12Median
Source: NPS PSIS and EdSight Enrollment Data. Please nate that out-of-district students are not included in 2018-19 and 2019-20 figures. An analysis of the 2019-20 enrollment increase indicates a high degree of in-migration to the District across all grade levels. Moreover, a high proportion of new students are from immigrant communities and require additional services. The following maps demonstrate the overlap between new-to-district enrollment hot spots with ELL student hot spots. The students who are new to district were identified by analyzing student 1 identification numbers from one year to the next for 1st through 12 h graders. Any student i.d. that appeared in 2019-20, but was not in the District's system in 2018-19 was assumed to be new to NPS.
As is evident from the following maps, a significant cluster of new students with English language learner needs are centered in SoNo and along the Route 7 corridor. The influx of students affected many school attendance areas in 2019-20.
21 New-to-District Student Density (Grades 1-12)
CJ Low
- Medium
- High
0
0
•
2019-20 New-to-District Students (Grades 1-12) N /}~ MILONE& 0 0.25 o.s 0.75 "•-. MACBROOM Norwalk Enrollment Update 195 Church St Miles 7th Floor Norwalk Public Schools New Haven, CT 06510 nus map for ptann1ng purpoS
D low
0
2019-20 ELL Students (Grades 1-12) N {AI~ MILONE & 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 -r._~ MACBROOM Norwalk Enrollment Update 195 Church St Miles 7th Floor Norwalk Public Schools New Haven, a 06510 Th1s map for planmng purposes only A 203-271-1773 Oellneallons may not be exacl Source· Norwalk Public Schools Attendence Zones
Brookside
Cranbury
Fox Run
Jefferson
Kendall
Marvin
Naramake
Rowayton
Silvermine
Tracey
- Wollpit
Unassigned
New to District & ELL Students (1-12)
a
• p
New to District & ELL Students (Grades 1-12) N f.~,l~ MILONE & 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 .....~ MACBROOM Norwalk Enrollment Update 195 Church St Miles 7th Floor Norwalk Public Schools New Haven, CT 06510 A 203-271-1773 Elementary School (K- 5) Historic Enrollment
5,500 5.385 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600
~ K - 5 Total -- K-5 Median
Source: NPS PSIS and EdSight Enrollment Data. Please note that out-of-district students are not included.
Elementary enrollments generally followed the same overall trend as districtwide enrollments until recently. They experienced decline during the mid-2000s, a recovery during the Recession and a subsequent levelling off. However, K-5 enrollment experienced a downward trend from 2014-15 to 2018-19, while the District overall was experiencing total enrollment increases. Thi s period of decline corresponds with the decrease in birth rates beginning in 2010. With an uptick in in-migration, total K-5 enrollment increased slightly in 2019-20.
Middle School (6 -8) Historic Enroll ment 2,650 2,700 2,595 2,597 2,571 2 560 2,586 2,600 2,499 2,504 2,490 2,522' ~--
2,500 2~-r- - - - - 2 !?8 ------• 2,337 2,337 ' 2,326 2 316 2 294 2,359 2,400 2,267 • • 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000
--+-6-8 Total -- 6-8 Media n
Source: NPS PSIS and EdSight Enrollment Data. Please note that out-of-district students are not included. Middle school enrollment has been trending positive since 2013- 14- experiencing a 15.5% increase since then. This growth trend lags behind the period of significant elementary enrollment increase between 2007-08 and 2014-15- indicating that at least some of the growth is from larger cohorts matriculating through the system. However, middle school enrollments experienced an unusua l increase in 2019-20 (a 2.5 % increase in one year) demonstrating that in-migration occurred across all grade levels in 2019-20.
High School (9-12) Historic Enrollment
3,800 3,717 3,700 3,600 3,500
3,400 3,289 3,331 3,315 3,329 3,295 3,309 3,331 3,300 -- - 3.2'01 ~~ 3,200 3,100 3,000
...,._9-12 Total -- 9-12 Median
Source: NPS PSIS and EdSight Enrollment Data. Please note that out-of-district students are not included.
At the high school level, enrollments rose steadily during the early 2000s before stabilizing at about 3,300 students for a ten year period from 2005-06 to 2015-16. A significant increase in enrollments began in 2016-17. High school enrollments have increased a total of 13.6% since 2015-16, including a significant one-year change of 4.2% in 2019-20. Again, in-migration was apparent at the high school level, as well as all other levels in 2019-20. PreK Enrollment History
300
250 ~ 252
200
150
100 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
PK enrollment has remained relatively stable over the last four years at around 250 students in-district. However, the District is planning on a slight decline in PreK enrollment in 2020-21 , due to shifting of seats currently in Jefferson School. The District's long-range facilities plan calls for two new PK classrooms to be provided in any new or newly renovated elementary building. These new classrooms are anticipated to increase PK capacity, rather than replace existing capacity. Therefore, an increase in PK enrollment is anticipated over the next several years as a result of ongoing and planned construction projects.
Comparison of Kindergarten Enrollment to Births
1,400 1322 1314 1272 1260 1278 1.300 1198 • • • ~8 1181 1150 1153 1,200 • • 1,100 • • • 958 943 1,000 928 897 909 900 • ..____826 840 842 838 900 .... • • • 800 • • • • 700 600 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 201 3-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
~ K ~ Births
Norwalk's kindergarten enrollments have remained generally stable with respect to local births over the past several years, hovering around 70-72 kindergarten enrollments per 100 births 5 years prior. In the following map, one can see that birth hotspots overlap with high concentrations of kindergarten enrollment. . 2 ") / l' / i Births 2013 ..X ~ "~ per Sq. Mile ~ z [=:J 0-20.6 .3 • [=:J 20.7- 75.6 .. Cranbufy 6-, • ~ ~ [=:J 75.7 - 130.6 ~·· ] . CJ 130.7-185.7 • •• j ... 185.8- 321 • • y :· ' Kindergarten . • • 1 • Enrollment • 2018-19 .1.J ; I ~
~ "\1 ~ ~ ll: ? Fox'"Run• & L _ • • 1lU i • • j
•
~·~ MILONE& Kindergarten Enrollement in 2018 & Births in 2013 ~ MACBROOM 0.6 0.9 N Norwalk Enrollment Updates 0 0.3 195 Church St Miles 7th Floor Norwalk Public Schools - A New Haven. CT 06510 1 in = 0.95 miles 203-271-1773 Among the elementary schools in Norwalk Public Schools, enrollment trends are mixed partially as a result of programmatic changes and reconfigurations. Many elementary schools were experiencing enrollment decline up until 2018-19 with some notable exceptions, including Rowayton, Silvermine and Tracey. With an influx of in-migration in 2019-20 severa l districts experienced an increase in enrollment, including Cranbury, Kendall, Marvin, Naramake, Silvermine and Tracey. The following cha rt shows enrollment trends for grades K-5 at Norwalk's elementary schools to better show the disparate trends. Note that some of these schools also house PK programs which are not reflected in the chart below. Also, Columbus transitioned to a K-8 magnet school beginning in 2017-18 and therefore houses additional students in grades 6-8.
K-5 Enrollment by School
625
575
525
475
425
375
325
275 2009·10 20!0·11 2011-12 20!2·13 2013·14 2014-15 2015·16 2016-17 2017·18 2018-19 2019·20
- Brookside - Columbus (K-5) - Cranbury Fox Run - Jefferson Kendall - Naramake -Rowayton - Silvermine -x-Tracey -Wolfpit
At the middle school level, enrollments were relatively stable over the last few years at three of the four schools. Rotan, however, has experienced a steady increase from 2013- 14 on. Enrollment increases in 2019-20 particularly impacted West Rocks Middle School, which had a one-year increase of 7.7%. In anticipation of constructing a new Columbus K-8 magnet school, the District began rolling up sma ll cohorts of middle-schoolers within the Columbus elementary building. The 2019-20 6th_8th grade enrollment at Columbus was 48 students.
29 Middle School (6-8) Enrollment
750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
- Nathan Hale - Upper Ponus Ridge - Raton West Rocks
Sntl!t e- Ncuwo/1- Pu!J/ic 5chonh At the high school level, Brien McMahon High School enrollment remained relatively stable at around 1,700 students from 2009-10 to 20015-16. The sharp decline in enrollment in 2016-17 evident in the chart below is the result of the Center for Global Studies being reported as a separate school. Even with the Center for Global Studies, McMahon's enrollment has seen a steady increase over the last three yea rs. Norwalk High School's enrollment was on a steady growth trend over the decade, until 2019-20 when the P-Tech program began reporting as a separate school. The rapid growth of high school enrollment over the last few yea rs has been accommodated by the increase from two to four reporting programs.
High School (9-12) Enrollment
:::::::::::::::::::::::======~~~...... ~::::::::::~ ---
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
- Brien McMahon High School - Center for Globa l Studies -.-P-TECH Norwalk High School
Source· Nnswulk Public Schools Enrollment Projections
Methodology The cohort-survival methodology, with some modifications, was used to calculate all projections in this report. This is a standard methodology for projecting populations and student enrollments and relies on the recent past as a predictor of the future. It works wel l for stable populations, including those that are growing or declining at a steady rate. Norwalk's 2019-20 enrollment data bucked the most recent trends in its high rate of growth across grade groupings. Therefore, it is a particularly difficult year to project enrollment because of unknowns involved with international immigration and the impacts of COVID-19. Nevertheless, the cohort-survival ratio was used as the standard model.
Persistency ratios expressing the growth or decline in the size of a grade cohort as it progresses through the school system were calculated from historic and current enrollments. A persistency ratio of 1.00 indicates that the cohort remains the same as it advances from one grade to the next. A persistency ratio of 1.05 means the cohort increased by 5% or a class of 100 gained five additional students the next year. Enrollment data from 2001-02 through 2019-20 and birth data from 1997 to 2014 were used to ca lculate the Birth-K and grade-to-grade persistency ratios shown in the table on the page that follows.
Persistency ratios account for the various factors affecting enrollments, including housing development and sa les, economic conditions, student transfers, and mobility into and out of a school district; however, they function best in a system that has stable trends- whether steadily increasing, decreasing, or remaining flat. Norwalk's Birth-K ratio has remained fairly flat in recent yea rs, remaining in or near the range of 0.68 to 0.75 for the last ten years birth and enrollment data. This key indicator has fallen on the higher end of the historical average in the last three years, with the ratio for 2019-20 kindergarten enrollments at 0.73. The slight increase in the local Birth-K ratio aligns with a regional trend toward increasing kindergarten enrollments that are likely due to migration rather than loca l births, but Norwalk remains much more comparable to Stamford than its more suburban neighbors that have experienced enrollment growth in the face of declining births. Persistency ratios expressing changes between existing grade level cohorts as they move through the system have remained on a generally increasing trend at a districtwide level. A key measure of stability within the district is the level of migration experienced as elementary students advance from grades 1-4 to 2-5, which tend to be the most stable grade levels. Gains in enrollments in that cohort grouping indicate in migration while losses indicate out-migration-whether through movement in or out of private school. transfer into or out of the district, or other factors. Like many urban districts, Norwalk has historically seen net out-migration, which has ranged from 0.3% to 3.9% across historical enrollment records. This year saw a positive in-migration of over 1%. Similarly, a comparison of 1'1 through 7th grade cohorts from one year to the next also went from a neutral to slightly negative net migration trend to a positive increase of almost 2% in 2019-10, indicating significant in-migration.
Also of note are some anomalously high and low ratios over the last two years lending some instability to the projections model. The 5-6 and 6-7 persistency ratios for this year are at or near historic highs. Again, these indicate a high degree of in-migration to the district. Whether they are the start of a new trend, though, is yet to be determined. Similarly, the transition into high school (the 8-9 ratio) was also at an historic high level. Finally, the 10-11 and 11-12 persistency ratios for 2018-19 were extremely low for recent trends. They do not appear to have signaled a new trend, as 2019-20 ratios were back up; however, the 2018-19 figures have a dampening effect on shorter-term averages.
32 Elem. Est. of Yea r Birth-K K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11 -12 Mig ratio Mig ratio n n 1-7 to 2 2002-03 0.6872 0.9734 0.9471 0.9463 1.0077 0.9574 1.0117 0.9910 1.0119 1.1680 0.8699 0.8883 0.8862 -3.53% -1.87% 2003-04 0.6458 0.9810 0.9716 0.9872 0.9676 0.9587 1.0340 1.0000 0.9625 1.2019 0.8728 0.9376 0.9399 -2.90% -1.73% 2004-05 0.7050 0.9795 0.9920 0.9801 0.9741 0.9713 0.9909 0.9705 0.9689 1.1358 0.8585 0.9354 0.9140 -2.05% -2.17% 2005-06 0.6537 0.9418 0.9582 0.9782 0.9522 0.9565 0.9901 1.0023 0.9638 1.1260 0.9085 0.9268 0.8916 ·3.86% ·2.83% 2006-07 0.6698 0.9649 0.9596 0.9552 0.9835 0.9686 0.9381 0.9826 0.9772 1.1903 0.8765 0.9073 0.8963 -3.32% -3.34% 2007-08 0.6808 0.9692 0.9673 0.9691 0.9848 0.9869 0.9702 0.9798 1.0025 1.1682 0.8411 0.9265 0.9079 -2.30% -2.00% 2008-09 0.6924 1.0012 0.9804 0.9887 1.0179 0.9884 1.0133 1.0174 1.0151 1.2099 0.8810 0.9274 0.9428 ·0.63% 0.27% 2009-10 0.7198 0.9878 0.9712 0.9825 0.9937 0.9799 0.9752 0.9892 0.9987 1.2371 0.8840 0.9557 0.9060 · 1.84% · 1.58% 2010-11 0.7020 0.9885 0.9932 1.0083 0.9835 1.0013 0.9872 1.0267 1.0133 1.2102 0.8675 0.9681 0.9228 -0.33% 0.18% 2011-12 0.7291 0.9838 0.9607 0.9773 0.9658 0.9910 1.0025 1.0169 0.9831 1.1609 0.8730 0.9823 0.9463 ·2.70% ·1.58% 2012-13 0.7414 0.9562 0.9748 0.9823 0.9872 0.9707 0.9557 1.01 27 1.0013 1.1669 0.9055 0.9677 0.9100 ·2.11 % ·1.66% 2013-14 0.7119 0.9682 0.9771 0.9281 0.9899 0.9894 0.9686 1.0123 0.9787 1.1325 0.9274 0.9807 0.9165 -2.91 % -2.32% 2014-15 0.7113 1.0089 1.0000 0.9944 0.9952 0.9943 0.9893 1.0143 1.0027 1.1038 0.95 16 0.9780 0.9249 -0.40% -0.17% 2015-16 0.7513 0.9835 0.9613 0.9858 0.9865 0.9951 0.9680 1.0012 1.0358 1.1221 0.9907 0.9988 0.9499 · 1.81% · 1.05% 2016-17 0.6895 0.9611 0.9732 0.9920 0.9867 1.0000 0.9914 1.0165 1.0204 1.0741 1.0347 1.0023 0.9467 -1.21% -0.31% 2017-18 0.7113 0.9564 0.9931 1.0333 0.9861 0.9820 0.9989 1.0136 1.0000 1.1212 0.9954 0.9861 0.9848 -0.14% 0.08% 2018-19 0.7322 0.9690 0.9873 0.9849 0.9911 0.9918 0.9920 1.0046 1.0219 1.1672 1.0189 0.9203 0.9320 · 1.12% -0.39% 2019-20 0.7268 0.9941 1.0221 1.0000 1.0071 1.011 2 1.0107 1.0462 1.0125 1.2452 0.9453 0.9743 0.9724 1.02% 1.59% 10-Yr Avg 0.7207 0.9770 0.9843 0.9886 0.9879 0.9927 0.9864 1.0165 1.0070 1.1504 0.9510 0.9759 0.9406 7-Yr Avg 0.7192 0.9773 0.9877 0.9884 0.9918 0.9948 0.9884 1.0155 1.0103 1.1380 0.9806 0.9772 0.9467 5-Yr Avg 0.7222 0.9728 0.9874 0.9992 0.9915 0.9960 0.9922 1.0164 1.0181 1.1460 0.9970 0.9764 0.9572 4-Yr Avg 0.7150 0.9702 0.9939 1.0026 0.9928 0.9963 0.9983 1.0202 1.0137 1.1519 0.9986 0.9708 0.9590 3 Vr Avg 0.7234 0.9732 1.0008 1.0061 0.9948 0.9950 1.0005 1.0215 1.01 15 1.1779 0.9865 0.9602 0.9631
Factors impacting these persistency ratios vary across grade levels. The Birth-K ratio has increased as local births have declined in recent yea rs, with in-migration of families with young children offsetting the lower population-level fertility of an older population. While Norwa lk's housing market has been slow to recover from the recession, a slow uptick in housing sa les indicates that housing turnove r has been increasing. Additionally, over 1,500 units of multifamily housing have been built in Norwalk since 2010. While small absolute numbers of students have been generated by these developments, they have nevertheless played a role in rising elementary enrollments.
Enrollment from Residential Development While persistency ratios capture the effects of recent housing construction on Norwalk's student enrollments, accurately projecting Norwa lk' s future enrollments also requires consideration of future large-scale residential development. According to the City of Norwa lk Planning Department, over 1,500 new multifamily dwelling units have been permitted or are in the permitting process, equivalent to a 9.5%2 increase in Norwalk's
2 Based on t he 2017 American Community Survey estimate of mult ifamily housing units. existing stock of multifamily residences. In order to determine the expected number of student enrollments from this expansion of the city's housing stock, a set of multipliers is needed to express the expected number of resident school-age children living in apartments and condominiums of different sizes and price points.
Multipliers calculated at a statewide level are available from a Rutgers University study published in 2006. Using Census data from across Connecticut, these multipliers provide a broad estimate of how many persons of different ages live in different styles of housing, organized by housing type, number of bedrooms, tenure, and price. However, it should be noted that these multipliers do not reflect recent demographic changes, nor do they take into account differences between urban, suburban, and rural areas of the state and the idiosyncrasies of particular housing markets and populations. To confirm that these multipliers are appropriate, the project team compared the Rutgers multipliers with enrollment from recent comparable developments in Norwalk. The multiplier analysis was conducted using student enrollment data geocoded to specific addresses, which allowed students to be matched to specific apartment or condominium complexes.
Housing Multipliers Norwalk Comparable Rutgers Developments (2006) Unit Size Affordable Market Luxury Affordable Market Luxury Studio/1BR 0.11 0.03 0.00 Unavailable Unavailable Unavailable 1-2BR 0.00 0.15 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.01 2BR 0.27 00.1 0.05 0.46 0.18 0.11 2-3BR+ 0.39 0.13 0.08 1.07 1.07 1.07 Average Multiplier 0.19 0.10 0.04 0.53 0.44 0.40
Over 50% of the anticipated units are located in the current Silvermine attendance zone, and nearly 25% are located in an unassigned attendance zone. These units are expected to generate between 69 and 360 students when they are fully occupied. For the purposes of this enrollment projection report, the Rutgers projection for luxury developments of 5 units or more was used. It is assumed that new units will be at luxury
34 price points. The projected 181 students generated from "pipeline" housing was added to the base enrollment projections.
Projected Students from Anticipated Housing Units
Attendance Projected Project Address Units Zone Students
Wall & Isaacs 101 Jefferson 12
71-75 Connecticut Ave 33 Jefferson 4
150-174 Glover Ave 475 Silvermine 53
1 Chestnut St 122 Silvermine 14
150 Glover Ave 235 Silvermine 26
13 Day St 273 Tracey 31
64 South Main St 8-14 Elizabeth St 40 Unassigned 5
East Ave 189 Unassigned 21
121-131 Water Street 129 Unassigned 15
Total 1,597 181
One source of uncertainty that stands outside the scope of this projection exercise is the effect of new multifamily housing development on the prices and occupancy characteristics of existing apartments and condominiums. In our analysis of the enrollment yields of different developments, a pattern emerged of older developments generating, on average, larger numbers of students. As developments age and amenities currently exclusive to the luxury market become more commonplace, the price points of certain multifamily buildings may fall, making them accessible to young families. While we do not expect this effect to come into play during the ten-year projection horizon, this effect may eventually increase the average enrollment of large multifamily developments built between 1975 and the early 2000s.
35 / I
Cranbury ._ ~
...... ~ Norwa lk Naramake I Nalhan Hale ~~ ' Recent Residential Developments by Number of Units Occupied • 3-50 • 51 - 150 151 -710 Active Construction • 3-50 • 51 - 150 ~ .4~ 0• 151 -710 I 0 Pending Application • 3 -50 ~ • 51 - 150 • 151-710 ~·~ M ILO NE& Recent Residential Developments ~ MACBROOM 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 N Norwalk Enrollment Update 195 Church St 7th Floor Miles Norwalk Public Schools - A New Haven, CT 06510 1 in =0.95 miles 203-271-1773 Economic Assumptions and Birth Projections Six years of projected births are necessary in order to project the incoming kindergarten classes through 2029-30. These projections are based on the fact that average annual unemployment rates and recent housing sales are often strongly correlated with annual birth rates. Additionally, fertility decisions are influenced not just by present economic conditions but also by unemployment in the recent past. Taking into account "lagged" effects of local and Fairfield County unemployment that may continue to influence birth rates for several years can improve the accuracy of the projections. Regression analysis yielded the following equation for projecting future births in Norwalk based on both housing sales and unemployment rates in current and recent years:
Births= 0- 347*(Local Unemploymentt-1) + 0.6* (SaleH) 432.4*(County Unemployment,_ 1)- 19.3*(County Unemploymentt-3)
In order to represent a range of potential future conditions, we prepared low, medium, and high projections based on different sets of assumptions on economic conditions, births, employment, and an upturn in the local housing market as drivers for increased birth estimates and persistency ratios. The high projection model is predicated on economic growth and declining unemployment. At the other end, the low-growth model is based on a stagnant economy in which labor and housing markets experience anemic growth. The following table shows the anticipated change in unemployment and housing sales assumed under our three different growth models. All three scenarios assume unemployment rates will continue to decrease in Norwalk and across Fairfield County over the next 7 years at various speeds. One cannot expect unemployment rates to fall in a linear fashion as in our assumed models; however, establishing low, medium, and high growth scenarios provides a range of likely projections under a continuously improving economy. The following table shows the anticipated change in unemployment and housing sales assumed under our three different growth models.
37 Birth Re~ ression Model Assumptions Low Medium High Norwalk Unemployment (lagged 7 year) 4% to 4.2% 3.4% to 4% 3.1 % to4% Norwalk Home Sales (laqqed 7 year) 1,000 to 1,089 1, 100 to 1, 109 1,129 to 1,200 Fairfield County Unemployment (lagged 7 year) 4.3% to 4.5% 4% to 4.4% 3.8% to 4.4% Fairfield County Unemployment (lagged 3 years) 4.4% to 5.8% 4.3% to 5.8% 4.2% to 4.4%
Projections for the last 5 years of enrollments depend on births that have not yet occurred to populate incoming kindergarten classes. A regression model of past births based on historic labor and housing market conditions to predict future births under a range of economic scenarios assumed above was used. Based on testing of a variety of lagged indicators and specifications for the regression model, a four-factor regression model incorporating lagged local and regional unemployment as wel l as lagged housing sales yielded good results in matching prior trends (R2 = 0.991 ).
Applying these assumptions to the regression model developed previously, three birth scenarios for 2019 through 2024 were developed, ranging in the final year from 1,074 in the low scenario to 1,129 in the high scenario. None ofthese scenarios suggest that Norwalk is li kely to return to the birthrate experienced during the late 1990s through the mid-2000s when the city saw 1,300 births or more in most years.
Norwalk Historic and Projected Births, 1996 - 2024
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300 1,1981,1981 181 1200 • 1,1501,1531,1511,163 1 126 1,129 1,084. I 1100 .. =- - - -- 1000 1,074
900
800
High -- Medium l ow -His toric Projected Future Enrollments The enrollment projections prepared for Norwalk Pub lic Schools reflect the modified cohort-survival methodology described above. In addition to using persistency ratios to model year-to-year change in enrollments at each grade level, students were added on an ad-hoc basis to reflect the total projected impact of multifamily residential development. Low, medium, and high ranges of student generation estimates were applied to the low, medium, and high projection assumptions regarding persistency, births, and economic conditions. The three sets of projected enrollments demonstrate the range of possible future enrollments for Norwalk Public Schools.
In our opinion, because recent high levels of in-migration have outpaced the medium projection model, the high projection model is the most appropriate model to use in faci lities planning. There is perhaps a higher degree of uncertainty around these projections than usual due to the unknown long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, the high model projects a 7.5% increase in total PK-12 enrollment out five years, and a 10% increase over the next decade.
Norwalk PK-12 Total Enrollment Projections by Projection M odel 13,000 12,728 12,500 12,000 11,716 ~------11,500 ---- -...... 11,650 11,000 10,500 10,000
- Low Medium High - Historic Enrollment The three projection models all project an increase over the next five years, ranging between 2.2% and 6.1 %. Note that the greatest confidence is in the first five years of projections as they are based on known data. The low model then projects a slight decline to return to current enrollment levels by 2029-30; whereas the medium and high models continue a slower growth trend in the latter half of the projection horizon.
Actual and Projected Enrollment (PK-12) Based on High Projection Model 14,000 12,323 12,426 12,491 12,581 12,579 12,620 12,728
12,000 11,091 11,229 11,322 11,346 11,445 11,416
10,000 3,284 3,306 3,293 3,390 3,514 3,568 3,717
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30
Source: Norwalk Public Sc-hools ond MMI • PK • K-5 Total • 6-8 Total • 9-12 Total PK-12 Total
Within the high projection model there is variation projected across grade levels. While elementary enrollment is projected to remain relatively stable until 2022-23, when PK enrollment increases with the opening of the new Lower Ponus School and K-5 beg ins to trend slightly upward. Middle school enrollment is projected to increase over the next two years before settling back down to current levels, then increasing again in the latter half of the projection horizon. Finally, high school enrollment is projected to experience more significant and steady growth over the first five years before experiencing a short period of decline and subsequent rebound. Detailed projections for this scenario are provided below, and full details of all projection scenarios are provided in Appendix A School Birth PK-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 Births K 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 PK Year Year ' • Total Total Total Total Total 2019-20 2014 1,153 838 837 832 780 852 901 853 905 892 1,046 950 946 775 252 11,659 11,407 5,040 2,650 3,717 2020-21 2015 1,151 841 828 848 830 783 858 907 883 921 1,090 1,016 910 909 232 11,856 11,624 4,988 2,711 3,925 2021-22 2016 1,163 851 833 841 848 835 791 866 940 901 1,128 1,062 977 878 268 12,019 11,751 4,999 2,707 4,045 2022-23 2017 1,084 797 846 849 844 857 846 802 901 962 1,105 1,101 1,023 944 304 12,181 11,877 5,039 2,665 4,173 2023-24 2018 1,126 846 795 864 854 855 870 859 837 924 1,182 1,081 1,062 990 304 12,323 12,019 5,084 2,620 4,315 2024-25 2019 1,135 838 845 814 871 867 870 885 898 861 1,139 1,158 1,046 1,030 304 12,426 12,122 5,105 2,644 4,373 2025-26 2020 1,132 852 837 865 821 884 882 885 925 923 1,062 1,117 1,119 1,015 304 12,491 12,187 5,141 2,733 4,313 2026-27 2021 1,128 849 851 857 872 833 899 897 925 950 1,137 1,042 1,080 1,085 304 12,581 12,277 5,161 2,772 4,344 2027-28 2022 1,121 817 848 871 864 885 848 914 937 950 1,170 1.115 1,008 1,048 304 12,579 12,275 5,133 2,801 4,341 2028-29 2023 1,128 822 816 868 878 877 900 863 955 963 1.170 1.147 1,078 979 304 12,620 12,316 5,161 2,781 4,374 2029-30 2024 1,129 823 821 836 875 891 892 915 902 981 1,186 1,147 1,109 1,046 304 12,728 12,424 5,138 2,798 4,488 individual School Enrollment Projections The cohort-survival methodology was used to project individual elementary, middle, and high school enrollments, based on persistency ratios unique to each school. The school by-school projections are informed by localized variations in the same data that informed the districtwide projections: housing sales, births, and enrollment trends. Sometimes, districtwide data mask variations at the neighborhood and attendance zone level.
Creating enrollment projections for individual schools can prove challenging due to smaller data sets leading to a greater percentage of error than for the larger area projections. For this reason, the individual school-by-school projections have been normalized against the districtwide projections so that the individual school's projections collectively equal the districtwide projections. Like with the districtwide projections, we modeled three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high for the elementary school projections. In addition, we made the following assumptions for the individual school projections:
• It should be noted that district boundaries and individual enrollment patterns are likely to change as Norwalk implements elements of the Master Plan including new choice schools and programs. See Appendix B for flow charts depicting the school construction and planned programmatic changes. • Magnet schools and new programs will be filled to 95% of their enrollment capacity. Thus, removing students from neighborhood schools. At this time, the precise number of magnet students and where they will be drawn from has yet to be determined.
41 • Feeder patterns for middle and high schools will not change during the projected time horizon. • Administrative placements of students will continue to follow recent allocation patterns among the district's elementary schools. • Full-day kindergarten will remain in place. • Recent private school and out-of-district enrollment trends will remain stable. • Cohorts of students at Columbus Magnet School will remain stable at approximately 44-48 students for grades K-5 and will begin to roll up with the planned opening of a new Columbus K-8 School in 2023-24. • Planned magnet programming at Norwalk Global Academy will open to grades K-3 in 2025-26, and continue to roll up until reaching full occupancy in 2027-28. • Magnet programming at Lower Ponus and Tracey are targeted at mid-60s per grade. • Pre-Kindergarten will decrease slightly next year (due to shifting of seats currently at Jefferson) before expanding by 72 new students through the addition of programming at the new Cranbury and Lower Ponus Schools.
Projected PK-5 Total Enrollment by School School 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 Trend
~ Brookside 439 434 434 418 349 346 349 354 349 352 347 "--·,.-~ Columbus (K-5) 299 281 261 263 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 ' '·· Cranbury 442 455 497 463 390 390 404 408 406 411 407 _., Fox Run 403 400 408 373 316 312 313 317 312 316 314 ' Jefferson 505 452 434 406 394 390 380 372 364 364 362 --~-.. - Kendall 505 497 482 494 508 509 501 499 502 502 503 y"'-· Lower Ponus Ridge 0 0 0 252 468 468 468 468 468 468 468 j Marvin 427 417 431 406 342 342 339 343 340 346 342 ---\____ Naramake 388 391 386 371 309 311 301 304 298 303 301 '\ Academy 0 0 0 0 268 335 402 402 402 402 402 - _~--- NECC 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 Rowayton 489 496 506 487 417 406 415 421 414 419 415 \... - Silvermine 500 497 506 507 506 496 497 497 500 497 500 J\_~- Tracey 435 457 465 477 484 463 439 439 443 443 442 /'\._ Wolf pit 307 303 317 285 232 237 232 237 235 238 235 ... -- TOTAL: 5,284 5,225 5,272 5,347 5,392 5,414 5,449 5,470 5,442 5,470 5,447 ._r~'
The above table shows actual enrollments at Norwalk's elementary schools from 2019- 20 and projected enrollments through 2029-30. The projections for PreK included in the individual school projections above do not account for approximately 25 special service students annually, who are included in the districtwide projections.
42 The new Columbus School at Ely and the renovation of the existing Columbus building for the development of the Norwalk Global Academy has been delayed due to the inability of the City to secure approval for a necessary land swap from the Connecticut DEEP and the National Park Service (NPS), which would allow for the new Columbus School at Ely to move forward. The lead scenario in these projections assumes that these issues will be resolved, and the projects will be able to commence in two years, or July 1, 2022. An alternative enrollment scenario was developed in the event that the necessary land swap approval from DEEP and the NPS is not forthcoming within the time horizon of these projections. The alternative scenario assumes that neither the new Columbus at Ely, nor the renovation of the existing building for the development of the Norwalk Global Academy will occur during the time horizon of these projections.
Projected PK-5 Total Enrollment by School WITHOUT Columbus and Global Academy Projects School 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 Trend
Brookside 439 434 434 418 386 393 405 410 407 408 404 ',~r-·
Columbus (K-5} 299 281 261 263 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 -~- Cranbury 442 455 497 463 435 445 467 473 470 476 472 ;, - Fox Run 403 400 408 373 354 356 366 369 367 369 364 ' -,~_.--- Jefferson 505 452 434 406 394 390 381 372 363 363 363 --..__ Kendall 505 497 482 494 508 508 501 501 501 502 504 '\./-. - lower Ponus Ridge 0 0 0 252 468 468 468 468 468 468 468 j Marvin 427 417 431 406 383 392 400 404 403 405 403 """--"·r- -- Naramake 388 391 386 371 341 353 353 356 354 355 355 ·-~ Academy NECC 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 Rowayton 489 496 506 487 466 470 489 494 491 496 489 ---~,------Silvermine 500 497 506 507 504 495 497 498 495 500 498 r,_~f Tracey 435 457 465 477 484 463 439 439 439 440 441 /~..__._
~ Wolfpit 307 303 317 285 260 272 274 277 275 279 277 ·~~ TOTAL: 5,470 5,447 ~~ - 5,284 5,225 5,272 5,347 5,392 5.414 5,449 5,470 5,442 ·~
The above table shows a second scenario and includes actual enrollments at Norwalk's elementary schools from 2019-20 and projected enrollments through 2029-30. In this projection, Columbus K-8 continues to operate as it currently does (without a new facility) and the Global Academy project is not implemented. As in the previous scenario, the projections for PreK included in the individual school projections above do not account for approximately 25 special service students annually, who are included in the districtwide projections.
43 Projections for the first 5 years of future elementary enrollments are typically the most accurate as they are based on known (rather than projected) births and existing students. For both elementary scenarios, the projection model assumes that all magnet programs will be filled to 95% of their capacity and the new Lower Po nus School will begin to enroll students in 2022-23. When Lower Ponus opens, most schools, except Columbus, Kendall, Silvermine and Tracey should experience an enrollment decrease. This aligns with goals in the Master Plan to reduce over-crowding and reliance on portable or temporary classrooms at several elementary school facilities. Overall, elementary enrollment is expected to increase by about 130 students over the next 5 years and 160 students over ten years.
Projected Middle School (6·8) Enrollments by School School 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 Trend Nathan Hale 624 625 602 608 595 564 564 525 542 498 492 -~-"'-~- Upper Ponus Ridge 673 673 675 633 576 601 656 715 698 671 675 ''J··- ,- Raton 579 605 628 604 584 562 574 620 700 783 783 . West Rocks 726 757 745 738 761 789 809 783 737 706 717 --~/"- Columbus (6-8) 48 51 57 82 104 128 130 129 124 123 131 / TOTAL: 2,650 2,711 2,707 2,665 2,620 2,644 2,733 2,772 2,801 2,781 2,798 ."./' The established feeder pattern for matriculating students from S'h to 6'h grade (see Appendix B) was used to create the projections in the above table. Nathan Hale is projected to experience decline over the ten-year projection horizon, losing about 125 students. Raton largely follows the overall 6-8 projection trend of short-term increases, slight retraction, then a period of enrollment growth. Rotan is projected to gain more than 200 students out ten years. Upper Ponus is projected to remain stable over the next two years before declining for a couple of years prior to rebounding. West Rocks is projected to experience significant increases out 5-7 years (+80 students) before returning to current levels after a decade. All of this occurs as the Columbus K-8 rolls up some larger cohort sizes beginning in 2022-23. Considering these large shifts in enrollment, the middle school feeder pattern may have to be adjusted as new schools open in the future.
44 Projected High School (9-12) Enrollments by School School 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2021-28 2028-29 2029-30 Trend Brien McMahon 1,619 1,760 1,795 1,918 2,063 2,D93 2,075 2,055 2,053 2,071 2,231 ~/ c' Center for Global Studies 277 287 296 297 304 307 301 303 302 304 313 .~~ P-TECH 374 393 393 393 393 393 393 393 393 393 393 I Norwalk High 1,448 1,485 1,561 1,565 1,555 1,580 1,544 1,593 1,593 1,606 1,551 .r4 TOTAL: 3,718 3,925 4,045 4,173 4,315 4,373 4,313 4,344 4,341 4,374 4,488 //
At the high school level, the feeder patterns (identified in Appendix B) are again taken as the basis for future enrollments in the table above. Under the high-growth assumptions, both Brien McMahon and Norwalk High Schools experience enrollment increases over both the five and ten-year horizons. At McMahon, enrollment is projected to rise above 2,000 students by 2023-34, while enrollment Norwalk High is projected to hover around 1,600 students starting in 2023-24. The Center for Global settles at around 300 students by 2021-22, and P-Tech settles around 400 students beginning next year. The feeder pattern for the high schools may need to be adjusted to better distribute students among the available seats.
Detailed projection tables for all individual schools, grade levels, and projection scenarios are included in Appendix A.
45 Appendix A: Detailed Projections
46 Detailed Distridwide Projections (low-Growth)
School Birth PK-12 Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PK Year Year Total 2019-20 2014 1,153 838 837 832 780 852 901 853 905 892 1,046 950 946 775 252 11,659 2020-21 2015 1 '151 837 823 831 826 778 852 898 871 925 1,027 1,048 933 911 232 11,792 2021-22 2016 1,163 848 825 820 828 826 781 852 920 894 1,067 1,031 1,030 900 268 11,890 2022-23 2017 1,084 793 838 824 819 830 831 784 875 946 1,034 1,073 1,016 995 304 11,962 2023-24 2018 1,126 826 786 839 825 823 837 836 808 902 1,096 1,043 1,060 985 304 11,970 2024-25 2019 1,123 823 818 787 840 829 830 841 861 834 1,046 1,105 1,030 1,027 304 11,975 2025-26 2020 1,114 817 815 819 789 844 836 835 866 888 968 1,055 1,091 998 304 11,925 2026-27 2021 1,104 810 809 816 820 794 851 840 860 893 1,030 977 1,042 1,056 304 11,902 2027-28 2022 1,094 802 803 810 818 824 801 855 865 887 1,035 1,039 966 1,009 304 11,818 2028-29 2023 1,084 795 795 804 812 822 831 806 880 892 1,029 1,044 1,026 937 304 11,777 2029-30 2024 1,074 777 777 785 795 805 818 825 819 896 1,022 1,026 1,019 982 304 11,650 Detailed Distric:twide Projections (Medium-Growth)
School Birth PK-12 Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PK Year Year Total 2019-20 2014 1,153 838 837 832 780 852 901 853 905 892 1,046 950 946 775 252 11,659 2020-21 2015 1,151 838 823 844 834 781 854 905 878 919 1,071 1,025 912 911 232 11,827 2021-22 2016 1,163 848 825 832 848 837 785 860 933 894 1,106 1,053 987 881 268 11,957 2022-23 2017 1,084 794 838 837 839 854 844 794 890 953 1,078 1,089 1,016 956 304 12,086 2023-24 2018 1,126 826 787 852 846 847 863 855 824 911 1,151 1,063 1,053 985 304 12,167 2024-25 2019 1,124 827 820 802 863 856 858 876 889 846 1,104 1,138 1,031 1,024 304 12,238 2025-26 2020 1,111 818 821 836 813 873 867 871 911 912 1,026 1,092 1,103 1,003 304 12,250 2026-27 2021 1,120 824 812 837 847 823 884 880 905 934 1,105 1,016 1,058 1,072 304 12,301 2027-28 2022 1,118 823 818 828 848 857 834 897 915 928 1'131 1,093 986 1,029 304 12,291 2028-29 2023 1,116 821 817 834 839 858 868 847 932 938 1,124 1,118 1,059 960 304 12,319 2029-30 2024 1,118 823 815 833 845 849 869 881 881 956 1,136 1'111 1,083 1,030 304 12,416
Detailed Distrktwide Projections (High-Growth)
School Birth PK-12 Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PK Year Year Total 2019-20 2014 1,153 838 837 832 780 852 901 853 905 892 1,046 950 946 775 252 11,659 2020-21 2015 1,151 841 828 848 830 783 858 907 883 921 1,090 1,016 910 909 232 11,856 2021-22 2016 1,163 851 833 841 848 835 791 866 940 901 1,128 1,062 977 878 268 12,019 2022-23 2017 1,084 797 846 849 844 857 846 802 901 962 1,105 1,101 1,023 944 304 12,181 2023-24 2018 1,126 846 795 864 854 855 870 859 837 924 1,182 1,081 1,062 990 304 12,323 2024-25 2019 1,135 838 845 814 871 867 870 885 898 861 1,139 1,158 1,046 1,030 304 12,426 2025-26 2020 1,132 852 837 865 821 884 882 885 925 923 1,062 1,117 1,119 1,015 304 12,491 2026-27 2021 1,128 849 851 857 872 833 899 897 925 950 1,137 1,042 1,080 1,085 304 12,581 2027-28 2022 1,121 817 848 871 864 885 848 914 937 950 1,170 1,115 1,008 1,048 304 12,579 2028-29 2023 1,128 822 816 868 878 877 900 863 955 963 1,170 1,147 1,078 979 304 12,620 2029-30 2024 1,129 823 821 836 875 891 892 915 902 981 1,186 1,147 1,109 1,046 304 12,728
47 Norwalk Public Schools Detailed Elementary School Projections Elementary School Projected Enrollment. 2019·20 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth with Columbus and Global Academy Brookside 32 60 65 76 54 68 84 407 439 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 43 42 64 62 299 (High-Growth Scenario) Cranbury 66 75 81 75 76 69 442 "'442 Fox Run 20 66 73 65 64 52 63 383 403 Grade -level totals vary slightly from corresponding Jefferson 20 74 68 74 88 84 97 485 505 districtwide grade level projections due to formulaic Kendall 18 85 76 66 71 98 91 487 505 rounding issues. Lower Ponus 0 0 Marvin 79 72 71 61 61 83 427 427 Naramake 18 68 53 64 52 69 64 370 388 Norwalk Global 0 0 0 Rowayton 80 97 81 65 86 80 489 489 Silvermine 83 90 81 80 77 89 500 500 Tracey 80 82 69 68 73 63 435 435 Wolfpit 53 42 59 58 40 55 307 307 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 253 838 837 830 778 848 900 5,031 5,284
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2020-21 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 65 62 67 74 56 74 398 434 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 43 42 64 281 281 Cranbury 83 63 76 81 75 77 455 455 Fox Run 20 70 66 71 59 62 52 380 400 Jefferson 72 75 66 71 85 83 452 452 Kendall 18 78 83 80 69 71 98 479 497 lower Ponus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Marvin 78 76 72 69 62 60 417 417 Naramake 18 60 66 55 67 52 73 373 391 Norwalk Global 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rowayton 92 80 96 81 66 81 496 496 Silvermine 84 79 89 86 83 76 497 497 Tracey 63 83 89 74 68 80 457 457 Wolfpit 52 51 43 56 61 40 303 303 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 237 841 828 848 830 783 858 4,988 5,225
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2021-22 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 66 67 63 65 76 61 398 434 Columbus {K-8} 44 44 44 44 43 42 261 261 Cranbury 36 85 80 63 75 80 78 461 497 Fox Run 20 71 70 63 64 58 62 388 408 Jefferson 73 73 72 64 68 84 434 434 Kendall 18 78 76 87 83 69 71 464 482 Lower Ponus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Marvin 80 76 76 69 70 60 431 431 Naramake 18 61 59 69 57 67 55 368 386 Norwalk Global 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rowayton 93 92 80 98 82 61 506 506 Silvennine 84 80 78 93 89 82 506 506 Tracey 63 66 92 96 74 74 465 465 Wolfpit 53 50 54 40 59 61 317 317 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 273 851 833 841 848 835 791 4,999 5,272
48 Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2022-23
School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 51 69 59 62 58 83 382 418 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 43 263 263 Cranbury 36 65 82 70 64 64 82 427 463 Fox Run 20 55 71 59 57 53 58 353 373 Jefferson 63 74 71 69 61 68 406 406 Kendall 18 78 76 79 91 83 69 476 494 Lower Ponus 36 72 0 72 0 72 0 216 252 Marvin 61 77 65 74 60 69 406 406 Naramake 18 48 60 53 72 49 71 353 371 Norwalk Global 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rowayton 72 95 79 80 84 77 487 487 Silvermine 84 80 79 82 96 86 507 507 Tracey 63 66 72 98 97 81 477 477 Wolfpit 41 52 46 51 36 59 285 285 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 309 797 846 848 844 857 846 5,038 S,347
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2023-24
School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 49 44 52 so 55 63 313 349 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 62 53 61 59 54 65 354 390 Fox Run 20 52 46 51 45 48 54 296 316 Jefferson 63 64 71 69 66 61 394 394 Kendall 18 78 76 80 82 91 83 490 508 Lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 58 50 57 54 64 59 342 342 Naramake 18 45 39 47 47 61 52 291 309 Norwalk Global 0 67 67 67 67 0 0 268 268 Rowayton 69 61 70 68 69 80 417 417 Silvermine 85 80 79 82 85 95 506 506 Tracey 63 66 72 77 100 106 484 484 Wolfpit 39 33 41 37 46 36 232 232 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 309 846 795 864 853 855 870 S,083 S,392
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2024-25
School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 48 51 46 52 53 60 310 346 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 61 60 55 62 60 56 354 390 Fox Run 20 51 53 46 47 46 49 292 312 Jefferson 63 64 62 69 66 66 390 390 Kendall 18 78 76 80 83 83 91 491 509 Lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 58 58 51 56 56 63 342 342 Naramake 18 44 45 42 49 48 65 293 311 Norwalk Global 0 67 67 67 67 67 0 335 335 Rowayton 67 70 62 71 71 65 406 406 Silvermine 84 81 79 83 85 84 496 496 Tracey 63 66 72 77 77 108 463 463 Wolfpit 38 38 36 39 39 47 237 237 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 309 838 845 814 871 867 870 5,105 5,414
49 Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment. 2025-26 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-5th Brookside 36 so so 54 46 55 58 313 349 Columbus {K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 64 59 63 56 63 63 368 404 Fox Run 20 S3 52 52 42 47 47 293 313 Jefferson 63 64 62 60 66 65 380 380 Kendall 18 78 76 79 84 83 83 483 501 lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 60 56 59 so 59 55 339 339 Naramake 18 46 44 47 44 so 52 283 301 Norwalk Global Acade 67 67 67 67 67 67 402 402 Rowayton 69 69 72 63 74 68 415 415 Silvermine 84 80 81 82 86 84 497 497 Tracey 63 66 72 77 77 84 439 439 Wolfpit 39 37 41 34 41 40 232 232 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 309 852 836 865 821 884 882 5,140 5,449
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2026-27 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK-Sth Brookside 36 49 52 S3 54 49 61 318 354 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 64 62 62 63 56 65 372 408 Fox Run 20 S3 54 52 48 42 48 297 317 Jefferson 63 64 62 60 57 66 372 372 Kendall 18 78 76 79 82 83 83 481 499 lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 59 59 57 58 52 58 343 343 Naramake 18 45 45 47 50 45 54 286 304 Norwalk Global Acade 67 67 67 67 67 67 402 402 Rowayton 69 71 71 73 66 71 421 421 Silvermine 84 80 79 84 86 84 497 497 Tracey 63 66 72 77 77 84 439 439 Wolfpit 39 39 40 40 37 42 237 237 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 309 849 851 857 872 833 899 5,161 5,470
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment. 2027-28 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-5th Brookside 36 45 51 54 52 56 55 313 349 Columbus {K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 58 62 65 62 64 59 370 406 fox Run 20 48 53 S3 48 48 42 292 312 Jefferson 63 64 62 60 58 57 364 364 Kendall 18 78 77 80 83 83 83 484 502 lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 54 57 60 57 61 51 340 340 Naramake 18 41 44 48 49 50 48 280 298 Norwalk Global Acade 67 67 67 67 67 67 402 402 Rowayton 63 70 73 71 75 62 414 414 Silvermine 85 81 80 83 86 85 500 500 Tracey 63 67 72 78 78 85 443 443 Wolfplt 36 39 41 38 43 38 235 235 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 309 817 848 871 864 885 848 5,133 5,442
50 Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2028-29
School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-5th Brookside 36 46 47 53 54 54 62 316 352 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 59 57 64 65 63 67 375 411 Fox Run 20 49 49 53 49 48 48 296 316 Jefferson 63 64 62 60 57 58 364 364 Kendall 18 78 76 81 82 84 83 484 502 Lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 MalVin 55 53 59 60 59 60 346 346 Naramake 18 42 41 47 51 50 54 285 303 Norwalk Global Acade 67 67 67 67 67 67 402 402 Rowayton 64 64 71 74 74 72 419 419 Silvermine 83 81 80 83 85 85 497 497 Tracey 63 66 73 77 79 85 443 443 Wolfpit 37 35 42 40 41 43 238 238 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 309 822 816 868 878 877 900 5,161 5,470
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2029-30 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK-5th Brookside 36 46 47 49 53 56 60 311 347 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 59 57 59 65 66 65 371 407 Fox Run 20 49 50 48 49 49 49 294 314 Jefferson 63 64 62 59 57 57 362 362 Kendall 18 78 76 81 83 83 84 485 503 Lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 MalVin 55 54 54 58 62 59 342 342 Naramake 18 42 42 44 50 51 54 283 301 Norwalk Global Acade 67 67 67 67 67 67 402 402 Rowayton 64 65 66 73 77 70 415 415 Silvermine 84 81 81 83 87 84 500 500 Tracey 63 66 72 78 78 85 442 442 Wolfpit 37 36 38 40 42 42 235 235 NECC 145 145 TOTAL 309 823 821 837 874 891 892 5,138 5,447
51 Norwalk Public Schools Detailed Elementary School Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2019-20 Projections without Columbus and School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 32 60 65 76 54 68 84 407 439 Global Academy (High-Growth Columbus {K-8) 44 44 43 42 64 62 299 299 Cranbury 66 75 81 75 76 69 442 442 Scenario) Fox Run 20 66 73 65 64 52 63 383 403 Grade -level totals vary slightly from corresponding Jefferson 20 74 68 74 88 84 97 485 505 Kendall 18 districtwide grade level projections due to formulaic 85 76 66 71 98 91 487 505 Lower Ponus 0 0 rounding issues. Marvin 79 72 71 61 61 83 427 427 Naramake 18 68 53 64 52 69 64 370 388 NECC 145 0 145 Rowayton 80 97 81 65 86 80 489 489 Silvennine 83 90 81 80 77 89 500 500 Tracey 80 82 69 68 73 63 435 435 Wolfpit 53 42 59 58 40 55 307 307 TOTAL 253 838 837 830 778 848 900 5,031 5,284
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2020-21 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 65 62 67 74 56 74 398 434 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 43 42 64 281 281 Cranbury 83 63 76 81 75 77 455 455 Fox Run 20 70 66 71 59 62 52 380 400 Jefferson 72 75 66 71 85 83 452 452 Kendall 18 78 83 80 69 71 98 479 497 Lower Ponus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Marvin 78 76 72 69 62 60 417 417 Naramake 18 60 66 55 67 52 73 373 391 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 92 80 96 81 66 81 496 496 Silvermine 84 79 89 86 83 76 497 497 Tracey 63 83 89 74 68 80 457 457 Wolfpit 52 51 43 56 61 40 303 303 TOTAL 237 841 828 848 830 783 858 4,988 5,225
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2021-22 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 66 67 63 65 76 61 398 434 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 43 42 261 261 Cranbu'Y 36 85 80 63 75 80 78 461 497 Fox Run 20 71 70 63 64 58 62 388 408 Jefferson 73 73 72 64 68 84 434 434 Kendall 18 78 76 87 83 69 71 464 482 lower Ponus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Marvin 80 76 76 69 70 60 431 431 Naramake 18 61 59 69 57 67 55 368 386 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 93 92 80 98 82 61 506 506 Silvermine 84 80 78 93 89 82 506 506 Tracey 63 66 92 96 74 74 465 465 Wolfpit 53 50 54 40 59 61 317 317 TOTAL 273 851 833 841 848 835 791 4,999 5,272
52 Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2022-23 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 51 69 59 62 58 83 382 418 Columbus {K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 43 263 263 Cranbury 36 65 82 70 64 64 82 427 463 Fox Run 20 55 71 S9 S7 53 58 353 373 Jefferson 63 74 71 69 61 68 406 406 Kendall 18 78 76 79 91 83 69 476 494 lower Ponus 36 72 0 72 0 72 0 216 252 Marvin 61 77 65 74 60 69 406 406 Naramake 18 48 60 53 72 49 71 353 371 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 72 95 79 80 84 77 487 487 Silvermine 84 80 79 82 96 86 507 507 Tracey 63 66 72 98 97 81 477 477 Wolfpit 41 52 46 51 36 59 285 285 TOTAL 309 797 846 848 844 857 846 S,038 5,347
No!Walk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2023-24 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-5th Brookside 36 58 53 62 59 55 63 350 386 Columbus {K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 74 64 72 70 54 65 399 435 Fox Run 20 62 56 60 S4 48 54 334 354 Jefferson 63 64 71 69 66 61 394 394 Kendall 18 78 76 80 82 91 83 490 508 Lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 69 60 67 64 64 59 383 383 Naramake 18 53 47 55 55 61 52 323 341 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 81 73 82 81 69 80 466 466 Silvermine 83 80 79 82 85 95 504 504 Tracey 63 66 72 77 100 106 484 484 Wolfpit 46 40 48 44 46 36 260 260 TOTAL 309 846 795 864 853 855 870 5,083 S,392
No!Walk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2024-25 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 56 61 56 62 62 60 357 393 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 72 71 66 73 71 56 409 445 Fox Run 20 61 62 55 55 54 49 336 356 Jefferson 63 64 62 69 66 66 390 390 Kendall 18 78 76 79 83 83 91 490 508 Lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 68 68 61 66 66 63 392 392 Naramake 18 52 53 50 58 S7 65 335 353 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 80 83 75 83 84 65 470 470 Silvermine 84 80 79 83 85 84 495 495 Tracey 63 66 72 77 77 108 463 463 Wolfpit 45 45 43 46 46 47 272 272 TOTAL 309 838 845 814 871 867 870 5,105 5,414
53 Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2025-26 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK·Sth Brookside 36 58 59 63 56 65 68 369 405 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 75 70 73 67 73 73 431 467 Fox Run 20 63 62 61 50 55 55 346 366 Jefferson 63 64 62 60 66 66 381 381 Kendall 18 78 76 81 82 83 83 483 501 lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 70 67 69 60 69 65 400 400 Naramake 18 54 52 56 S3 59 61 335 353 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 81 81 85 76 87 79 489 489 Silvermine 85 80 79 82 86 85 497 497 Tracey 63 66 72 77 77 84 439 439 Wolfpit 46 44 48 41 48 47 274 274 TOTAL 309 852 837 865 820 884 882 5,140 5,449
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2026-27
School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK·5th Brookside 36 58 61 62 63 59 71 374 410 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 75 73 72 74 67 76 437 473 Fox Run 20 62 64 61 56 50 56 349 369 Jefferson 63 64 62 60 57 66 372 372 Kendall 18 78 76 80 83 83 83 483 501 lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 69 69 68 68 62 68 404 404 Naramake 18 54 S3 55 59 54 63 338 356 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 81 83 83 87 78 82 494 494 Silvermine 84 80 79 83 87 85 498 498 Tracey 63 66 72 77 77 84 439 439 Wolfpit 46 46 47 46 43 49 277 277 TOTAL 309 849 851 857 872 833 899 5,161 5,470
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2027-28 School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-5th Brookside 36 S3 61 64 62 66 65 371 407 Columbus {K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 69 72 75 73 75 70 434 470 Fox Run 20 58 63 63 56 56 51 347 367 Jefferson 63 64 62 60 57 57 363 363 Kendall 18 78 76 80 83 83 83 483 501 Lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 65 69 70 66 71 62 403 403 Naramake 18 50 S3 57 58 60 58 336 354 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 76 83 84 85 89 74 491 491 Silvermine 83 80 79 83 86 84 495 495 Tracey 63 56 72 77 77 84 439 439 Wolfpit 43 45 49 45 49 44 275 275 TOTAL 309 817 848 871 864 885 848 5,133 5,442
54 Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2028-29
School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK-Sth Brookside 36 54 55 63 63 64 73 372 408 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 70 67 75 76 75 77 440 476 Fox Run 20 58 59 62 58 55 57 349 369 Jefferson 63 64 62 60 57 57 363 363 Kendall 18 78 76 80 83 84 83 484 502 Lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 65 63 70 69 69 69 405 405 Naramake 18 so 49 56 60 58 64 337 355 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 76 78 85 86 87 84 496 496 Silvermine 85 81 79 83 86 86 500 500 Tracey 63 66 72 77 78 84 440 440 Wolfpit 44 42 48 47 48 so 279 279 TOTAL 309 822 816 868 878 877 900 5,161 5,470
Norwalk Public Schools Elementary School Projected Enrollment, 2029-30
School PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-Sth PK-Sth Brookside 36 55 56 57 63 66 71 368 404 Columbus (K-8) 44 44 44 44 44 44 264 264 Cranbury 36 70 68 69 76 76 77 436 472 Fox Run 20 58 59 57 57 58 55 344 364 Jefferson 63 64 62 60 57 57 363 363 Kendall 18 79 76 81 82 84 84 486 504 Lower Ponus 36 72 72 72 72 72 72 432 468 Marvin 65 65 65 69 71 68 403 403 Naramake 18 so so 53 60 61 63 337 355 NECC 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 Rowayton 76 78 79 85 89 82 489 489 Silvermine 85 80 81 82 85 85 498 498 Tracey 63 66 72 77 78 85 441 441 Wolfpit 43 43 45 47 so 49 277 277 TOTAL 309 823 821 837 874 891 892 5,138 5,447
55 Detailed Middle School Projections (High-Growth Scenario) Grade -level totals vary slightly from corresponding districtwide grade level projections due to formulaic rounding issues.
Norwalk Public Schools Norwalk Public Schools Middle School Enrollment, 2019-20 Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2023·24 School 6 7 8 6th-8th School 6 7 8 6th-8th Nathan Hale 217 227 624 180 Nathan Hale 204 192 199 595 Po nus Ridge 228 212 233 673 Po nus Ridge 165 192 219 576 Rotan 178 195 206 579 Rotan 193 165 226 584 West Rocks 249 264 213 726 West Rocks 256 246 259 761 Columbus (K-8) 18 17 13 48 Columbus (K-8} 41 42 21 104 TOTAL 853 905 892 2,650 TOTAL 859 837 924 2,620
Norwalk Public Schools Norwalk Public Schools Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2020-21 Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2024-25 6th-8th School 6 7 8 School 6 7 8 6th-8th Nathan Hale 218 187 220 625 Nathan Hale 154 213 197 564 224 234 215 673 Ponus Ridge Ponus Ridge 233 171 197 601 201 Rotan 209 195 605 Roten 177 213 172 562 West Rocks 237 250 270 757 West Rocks 278 259 252 789 Columbus (K-8) 19 17 15 51 Columbus {K-8) 43 42 43 128 TOTAl 907 883 921 2,711 TOTAL 885 898 861 2,644
Norwalk Public Schools Norwalk Public Schools Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2021-22 Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2025·26 School 6 7 8 6th-8th School 6 7 8 6th-8th Nathan Hale 187 225 190 602 Nathan Hale 184 162 218 564 Po nus Ridge 209 229 237 675 Po nus Ridge 241 241 174 656 Rotan 199 228 201 628 Roten 156 196 222 574 West Rocks 251 238 256 745 West Rocks 261 282 266 809 Columbus (K-8) 20 20 17 57 Columbus {K-8) 43 44 43 130 TOTAL 866 940 901 2,707 TOTAL 885 925 923 2,733
Norwalk Public Schools Norwalk Public Schools Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2022-23 Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2026-27 School 6 7 8 6th-8th School 6 7 8 6th-8th Nathan Hale 184 195 229 608 Nathan Hale 165 194 166 525 Po nus Ridge 185 215 233 633 Ponus Ridge 218 251 246 715 Rotan 150 218 236 604 Roten 245 172 203 620 West Rocks 242 252 244 738 West Rocks 230 263 290 783 Columbus (K-8) 41 21 20 82 Columbus (K·S) 39 45 45 129 TOTAL 802 901 962 2,665 TOTAL 897 925 950 2,772
56 Norwalk Public Schools Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2027-28 School 6 7 8 6th-8th Nathan Hale 172 172 198 542 Ponus Ridge 218 224 256 698 Roton 252 269 179 700 West Rocks 233 232 272 737 Columbus (K-8) 39 40 45 124 TOTAL 914 937 950 2,801
Norwalk Public Schools Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2028-29 School 6 7 8 6th-8th Nathan Hale 143 179 176 498 Po nus Ridge 217 225 229 671 Roton 227 277 279 783 West Rocks 234 234 238 706 Columbus (K-8) 42 40 41 123 TOTAL 863 955 963 2,781
Norwalk Public Schools Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2029-30 School 6 7 8 6th-8th Nathan Hale 160 149 183 492 Ponus Ridge 221 224 230 675 Roton 247 250 286 783 West Rocks 241 235 241 717 Columbus (K-8) 46 44 41 131 TOTAL 915 902 981 2,798
57 Detailed High School Projections (High-Growth Scenario) Grade -level totals vaty slightly from corresponding districtwide grade level projections due to formulaic rounding issues. Out-placed students are not included in either the districtwide or by school projections.
Norwalk Public Schools Norwalk Public Schools High School Projected Enrollment, 2019~20 High School Projected Enrollment, 2023-24 9th- 9th- School 9 10 1 1 12 School 9 10 11 12 12th 12th Brien McMahon High 402 415 448 354 1,619 Brien McMahon High 570 520 481 492 2,063 Center for Global Studies 77 75 64 61 277 Center for Global Studies 84 76 74 70 304 P-TECH 1 18 96 100 60 374 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 Norwalk High 416 398 334 300 1.448 Norwalk High 428 385 409 333 1,555 TOTAL 1,013 984 946 775 3,718 TOTAL 1,182 1,081 1,062 990 4,315
Norwalk Public Schools Norwalk Public Schools High School Projected Enrollment, 2020~21 High School Projected Enrollment, 2024-25 9th- 9th- School 9 10 11 12 School 9 10 11 12 12th 12th Brien McMahon High 506 432 387 435 1,760 Brien McMahon High 527 579 514 473 2,093 Center for Global Studies 78 74 71 64 287 Center for Global Studies 81 81 72 73 307 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 Norwalk High 406 410 354 315 1,485 Norwalk High 431 398 362 389 1,580 TOTAL 1,090 1,016 910 909 3,925 TOTAL 1,139 1,158 1,046 1,030 4,373
Norwalk Public Schools Norwalk Public Schools High School Projected Enrollment, 2021 ~22 High School Projected Enrollment, 2025-26 9th- 9th- School 9 10 1 1 12 School 9 10 11 12 12th 12th Brien McMahon High 480 512 425 378 1,795 Brien McMahon High 464 537 570 504 2,075 Center for Global Studies 81 75 70 70 296 Center for Global Studies 75 78 77 71 301 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 Norwalk High 467 375 384 335 1,561 Norwalk High 423 402 374 345 1,544 TOTAL 1,128 1,062 977 878 4,045 TOTAL 1,062 1,117 1,119 1.015 4,313
Norwalk Public Schools Norwalk Public Schools High School Projected Enrollment, 2022~23 High School Projected Enrollment, 2026-27 9th- 9th- School 9 10 11 12 School 9 10 11 12 12th 12th Brien McMahon High 513 488 502 415 1,918 Brien McMahon High 492 474 530 559 2,055 Center for Global Studies 79 78 71 69 297 Center for Global Studies 81 72 74 76 303 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 Norwalk High 413 435 352 365 1,565 Norwalk High 464 396 378 355 1,593 TOTAL 1,105 1,101 1,023 944 4,173 TOTAL 1,137 1,042 1,080 1,085 4,344
58 Norwalk Public Schools High School Projected Enrollment, 2027~28 9th- School 9 10 11 12 12th Brien McMahon High 561 503 469 520 2,053 Center for Global Studies 83 78 68 73 302 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 Norwalk High 426 434 373 360 1,593 TOTAL 1,170 1,115 1,008 1,048 4,341
Norwalk Public Schools High School Projected Enrollment, 2028~29 9th- School 9 10 11 12 12th Brien McMahon High 543 570 497 461 2,071 Center for Global Studies 83 80 74 67 304 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 Norwalk High 444 397 409 356 1,606 TOTAL 1,170 1,147 1,078 979 4,374
Norwalk Public Schools Middle School Projected Enrollment, 2029~30 9th- School 9 10 11 12 12th Brien McMahon High 627 553 562 489 2,231 Center for Global Studies 84 so 76 73 313 P-TECH 100 100 98 95 393 Norwalk High 375 414 373 389 1,551 TOTAL 1,186 1,147 1,109 1,046 4,488
59 Appendix B: School Planned School Construction & Configuration Changes
60 As Norwalk Public Schools continues to make changes to facilities in accordance with its long range plan, several changes will occur over the next five yea rs. One new elementary school will open at Lower Ponus, the Cranbury school will be renovated, and full implementation of magnet programming at the Silvermine and Tracey Schools will occur. The images below illustrate when these changes will be made and how the feeder pattern is expected to operate.
2019-20 Program Notes
High School
Middle School
Elementary School
School Typ e NORWALK Publk Schools ~·~ MILON E & .,...... _~ MACBROOM 2020-21 Program Notes
' Brien McMahon lfigh High School, NECA School
Middle School
Elementary School
School Type
~·~ MILONE& tl"...t..~ MACBROOM
2021-22 Program Notes
BriOfl McMahon High High School, NECA School
Middle School
Elementary School
School Type NORWALK~ Publk Schools l,;.f~ MILONE & tl"...t.,~ MACBROOM 2022-23 Program Notes
, ' srlen~Mahonffigh High School, NECA School
Middle School
Elementary School
School Type
l£f~ MILONE & ....~ MACBROOM
2023-24 Program Notes
High School
Middle School
Elementary School
School Type NORWALK~ Public School• ~·~ MILONE & ....~ MACBROOM 2024-25 Program Not es
High School
Middle School
Elementary School
School Type NORWALK Public S