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Risk Assessment of Proposed Management Scenarios for Lake Alexandrina on the Resident Fish Community

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Risk Assessment of Proposed Management Scenarios for Lake Alexandrina on the Resident Fish Community Risk assessment of proposed management scenarios for Lake Alexandrina on the resident fish community Report to the South Australian Department for Environment and Heritage SARDI Publication No. F2009/000375-1 SARDI Research Report Series No. 386 Chris M Bice & Qifeng Ye July 2009 Workshop attendees: Martin Mallen-Cooper, Keith Bishop, Jeremy Hindell, Bill Phillips, Kerri Muller, Jason Higham, Brenton Zampatti, Greg Ferguson, Luciana Bucater, Chris Bice and Qifeng Ye. Bice and Ye (2009) Lake Alexandrina Fish Risk Assessment This publication may be cited as: Bice, C and Ye, Q. (2009). Risk assessment of proposed management scenarios for Lake Alexandrina on the resident fish community. South Australian Research and Development Institute (Aquatic Sciences), Adelaide. 129 pp. SARDI Publication Number F2009/000375-1 . Cover: Boundary Creek in the Lower Lakes (top photo) and an adult congolli (Pseudaphritis urvillii, bottom photo). South Australian Research and Development Institute SARDI Aquatic Sciences 2 Hamra Avenue West Beach SA 5024 Telephone: (08) 8207 5400 Facsimile: (08) 8207 5481 http://www.sardi.sa.gov.au Disclaimer. The authors warrant that they have taken all reasonable care in producing this report. The report has been through the SARDI Aquatic Sciences internal review process, and has been formally approved for release by the Editorial Board. Although all reasonable efforts have been made to ensure quality, SARDI does not warrant that the information in this report is free from errors or omissions. SARDI does not accept any liability for the contents of this report or for any consequences arising from its use or any reliance placed upon it. © 2009 SARDI Aquatic Sciences This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the author. Printed in Adelaide 2009 SARDI Publication Number: F2009/000375-1 SARDI Research Report Series: 386 Author(s): Chris Bice and Qifeng Ye Reviewers: Marty Deveney, Jason Nicol, Kerri Muller and Keith Bishop Approved by: Jason Tanner Signed: Date: 12 August 2009 Distribution: Department for Environment and Heritage and SARDI Aquatic Sciences Library. Circulation: Public Domain i Bice and Ye (2009) Lake Alexandrina Fish Risk Assessment Table of Contents Table of Contents..........................................................................................................................................ii List of Figures ...............................................................................................................................................iv List of Tables.................................................................................................................................................vi Acknowledgements .....................................................................................................................................vii Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................viii 1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................1 2 Background .................................................................................................................................................3 2.1 The Lower Lakes and Coorong.......................................................................................................3 2.2 Current water levels and threats ......................................................................................................4 2.3 Management Options........................................................................................................................8 2.3.1 Option 1: Saltwater intrusion via Goolwa barrage...............................................................8 2.3.2 Option 2: Saltwater intrusion at Mundoo and/or Tauwitchere with the provision of a freshwater refuge .................................................................................................................................9 3 Fish species of the Lower Lakes and Coorong ...................................................................................12 3.1 Biology and life history of fishes of the Lower Lakes and Coorong.......................................16 3.1.1 Life history strategies and spawning.....................................................................................16 3.1.2 Habitat associations.................................................................................................................22 3.1.3 Water quality tolerance............................................................................................................29 3.2 Conceptual models ..........................................................................................................................36 4 Methodology.............................................................................................................................................50 4.1 General approach.............................................................................................................................50 4.2 Risk assessment method .................................................................................................................50 4.2.1 Determining likelihood, consequence and confidence levels...........................................51 4.2.2 Assigning overall risk for individual impacts.......................................................................55 4.2.3 Assigning overall risk of management on individual species............................................55 4.2.4. Temporal scale of risk assessment .......................................................................................56 5 Modelling data and predictions..............................................................................................................57 5.1 Assumptions of management options..........................................................................................62 5.1.2 Option 1 ....................................................................................................................................62 5.1.3 Option 2 ....................................................................................................................................62 6 Results........................................................................................................................................................64 6.1 General results of risk assessment.................................................................................................64 6.2 Significant impacts of management options on specified species groups and predicted responses..................................................................................................................................................71 6.2.1 High risk impacts of Option 1...............................................................................................71 6.2.2 High risk impacts of Option 2...............................................................................................80 6.3 Summary of fish responses.............................................................................................................82 7 Mitigation strategies.................................................................................................................................90 7.1 Impact 1: ‘Unvegetated, open freshwater habitat only’ (option 1) and ‘Vast majority of habitat unvegetated, open freshwater habitat’ (option 2) ................................................................90 7.1.1 Mitigation ..................................................................................................................................90 7.2 Impact 2: ‘Changes in the spatial salinity profile of the Lower Lakes in relation to species tolerance’..................................................................................................................................................91 7.2.1 Mitigation ..................................................................................................................................91 7.3 Impact 3: ‘Loss of freshwater flow to the Coorong (loss of salinity gradient)’ .....................92 7.3.1 Mitigation ..................................................................................................................................92 7.4 Impact 4: ‘Static small-volume flows of River Murray water provided to Lake Alexandrina’ ...................................................................................................................................................................92 7.4.1 Mitigation ..................................................................................................................................92 7.5 Impact 5: ‘Loss of connectivity between the River Murray and Lake Alexandrina’ .............93 7.5.1 Mitigation ..................................................................................................................................93 7.6 Impact 6: ‘Loss of connectivity between marine and freshwater environments’.................93 7.6.1 Mitigation ..................................................................................................................................94 ii Bice and Ye (2009) Lake Alexandrina
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