Savills Cheshire Home Truths

Wednesday 31 March 2021

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1 Welcome

Andrew Perratt Faisal Choudhry Charlie Kannreuther Tom Burke

Head of Country Residential Head of North West & Head of Cheshire Residential Research West Midlands Cluster Lettings

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 07967 555 402 0141 222 5880 01244 323 232 07812 249 392

2 Q&A Panellists

Jamie Carter Andrew Thorpe Sofia Da Silva

Head of Knutsford Head of Wilmslow Residential Sales Residential Sales Residential Sales Wilmslow

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 01565 632 618 0162 541 7463 01625 417 456

3 Special Guest

Mark Ridley

Group Chief Executive Officer

020 7499 8644

4 Residential Market Outlook Faisal Choudhry Residential Research

5 2020 anything but a normal housing market

1st modern-day Resulting in a recession where market driven by the economy those with and housing financial security market have rather than those moved in Government exposed to the different intervention on economic fallout directions jobs, earnings and Stamp Duty and a benevolent Low preceding approach to For whom a price growth, mortgage reassessment of ultra-low interest repayments housing needs rates and early and priorities expectations of a essentially sharp V-shape overrode marked it out as economics different

6 Exceptional market performance across the North West

North West market activity between June 2019 and February 2020 compared with June 2020 to February 2021

Net agreed sales Price reductions 110%

90% 98% 86% 90% 70%

50%

52%

Feb Feb 2021 -

30%

Feb 2020 versus Feb 2020 versus - 23%

10% 6% 4% Jun Jun 2020

-10% -1% -18% -1% -3% Jun Jun 2019

-30% -43% -50% Under £100k £100k-£200k £200k-£300k £300k-£500k £500k-£1m Above £1 million

Source: Savills Research using TwentyCi 7 Sales agreed between June 2020 and February 2021 versus June 2019 and February 2020

Manchester and Liverpool 11%

Cheshire Trafford 44% 41%

Surrounding areas 36%

Source: Savills Research using TwentyCi 8 The movers and the stickers

87% 1/3 51% 55% 44%

of those in The proportion of of those living in medium/ large of those in central of those living in those living in city the countryside towns or city London would small towns, centres or who are suburbs/ centres like their next villages or the suburbs who downsizing would like to home to be in a countryside would prefer their would prefer to remain in an city centre would like to next home to be in move into a urban area Increasing to 47% remain in one of a village or the village or small Increasing to 69% amongst the these locations countryside town of downsizers under 40s

Source: Savills Research Client Survey November 2020 9 Supply and Demand imbalance across Cheshire and Trafford

Agreed sales New Instructions +20% -23% (Jan-Feb 2021 v Jan-Feb 2020) (Jan-Feb 2021 v Jan- Feb 2020)

Source: TwentyCI 10 The impact on mainstream prices

UK North West 15%

10%

-5%

-10% Annual Annual house growth price -15%

-20% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Nationwide 11 Trafford £366K +5.5%

Cheshire East £300K +3.2%

Cheshire West £258K +4.8%

12 The impact on prime prices

Midlands/North Towns

+3.3% Annual growth Midlands/North Midlands/North Midlands/North Cities +8.4% Rural +4.7% since 2007 peak +9.2% +5.4% Annual growth Annual growth Annual growth Midlands/North -4.3% +28.8% Villages -14.7% since 2007 peak since 2007 peak since 2007 peak +3.9% Annual growth

-1.7% since 2007 peak

Source: Savills Research 13 The importance of locality

Now Prior to Covid-19 60%

50%

40%

30% 55% 48% 20% 37% 28% 10%

17% 15% Proportion of respondents who ranked as 1 or 2 1 or as ranked who respondents of Proportion 0% Park/Open space Family Shops/ local amenities Train/Tube station School(s) Place of work

Source: Savills Research Client and Applicant Survey March 2021 14 Vaccine & relaxation of lockdown looks to boost confidence further

Net balance of opinion on commitment to move

Greater commitment to move in the short, medium & longer term +25% +23% +20% +19%

Suggests demand is likely to remain strong throughout all of this year and into next Over the next 3 Over the next 6 Over the next 12 Over the next 24 months months months months

Source: Savills Research Client and Applicant Survey March 2021 15 Housing market outlook

5 years 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 to 2025

Prime UK Regional +20.5% +5.0% +4.0% +3.5% +3.0% +3.5%

Prime Midlands/North +21.1%

+4.5% +4.0% +4.0% +3.0% +4.0%

Mainstream UK +21.1% +4.0% +5.0% +4.0% +3.5% +3.0%

Mainstream North West +28.8% +4.5% +6.0% +5.5% +5.5% +4.5%

Source: Savills Research 16 Cheshire Market Update Charlie Kannreuther Head of North West & West Midlands Cluster

17 Our market: 2020 vs 2019

Buyer Sales Multiple Guide price Buyers outside registrations agreed offers achieved Cheshire +36% +53% 52% 99% 49%

Savills data, Jan – Dec 2020 v Jan – Dec 2019 18 Website enquiries surged during lockdown

250%

200%

150%

100% Enquiries vs Enquiries Jan vs 20 February enquiries up 50% 75% year on year

0% Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Source, Google Analytics – Jan 20 – Feb 21 19 Key drivers in the market

• Outside space

• Home working

• Community

• Leisure

• Schools

20 What people are buying - Country

Crossley Park, Manley Guide £1.35 million London buyer seeking lifestyle change

Lower Peover, Knutsford Guide £2 million European buyer with ties to the area

Sutton near Macclesfield Guide £975,000 Sold to London buyer relocating to the country post lockdown

21 What people are buying - Town

Curzon Park North, Chester Warburton Close, Hale Barns Racecourse Road, Wilmslow

Prime location on the outskirts of Guide £950,000 Guide £700,000 the city Sold to an overseas investor Over 40 viewings, 16 offers Off-market sale Sale agreed at a figure above the asking price

22 What people are buying - Coastal

Rhoscolyn, Anglesey

Guide £975,000 Exceptional demand for holiday homes in the area Multiple offers after first weekend of marketing

Benar Headland, Abersoch

Guide £2.75 million Sale agreed in competition

23 Looking ahead

48% more buyers across the UK:

• Chester 35%

• Wilmslow 64%

• Knutsford 123%

23% less stock

Prime conditions for a successful sale

Threapwood, Malpas - sale agreed on day 2 of marketing

Savills data, Jan/Feb 2021 v Jan/Feb 2020 24 Thank you

25 Local Market Update Tom Burke Head of Cheshire Lettings

26 2021 – Typical prime tenants

Try before Corporate Stop-gap you buy lets sellers

City Renovators leavers

Source: Savills 27 Cheshire – Q1 2021

66 66 66 Asking price Multiple offers Money up front 99% 50% 22%

66 66 66 Longer term 45% Non- Average rent lets Cheshire tenants £3819 pcm

Source: Savills 28 West Kirby, CH48

Appleton, WA4 Hale, WA15

Chester, CH2

Malpas, SY14 Middlewich, CW10 Wilmslow, SK9 Tips for a busy market

 Realistic pricing

 High Quality marketing

 Intelligent strategy

 Perfect presentation Thank you

31 Q&A