COVER STORY South: Probable Republican Comeback Territory The pro-Democratic national trend that prevailed in 2006 and 2008 enabled the party to score 2 — , D some hard-won key victories in the South, a region that had emerged as a Republican congres- 2008: Nye 52%, Rep. (R) 47% sional stronghold over the past couple of decades. Many of those captured districts have pretty One of three Democrats in 2008 to take a House seat conservative electorates, however, which is why several freshman and sophomore Democrats away from the GOP in the state, Nye may well have face tough fights to hold their seats in the era of and . adding to the a tough time holding the Virginia Beach- centered, party’s worries are seats in , arkansas and left open by senior Democrats. military-focused district, especially in a big year for But it would take an incredibly Republican year for the GOP to hold the seat that Republicans. The previous incumbent, Drake, is sup- the party won in 2008 because the Democratic incumbent was under indictment for corruption. porting car dealership owner in the June 8 GOP primary. Republicans also running are retired TOSSUPS Charlottesville, it’s basically conservative; McCain car- Navy SEALs Ed Maulbeck and Scott Taylor, and Naval 2 — Bobby Bright, D ried it by 3 points. And so, despite opposing Obama and Reserve Capt. Ben Loyola. Former Virginia Beach GOP 2008: Bright 50.2%, Jay Love (R) 49.6% the House leadership more often than most Democrats Chairman Chuck Smith entered the race but dropped in his first year, Perriello is one of the most vulnerable in- out and endorsed Rigell. The former mayor of Montgomery’s narrow victory (on cumbents in the country. Republican officials’ preferred a day when Barack Obama’s share of the district vote challenger is state Sen. , although there LEAN REPUBLICAN was just 37 percent) put the state’s “Wiregrass” district are several contenders, including Albemarle County in Democratic hands for the first time since 1964. Bright ARKANSAS 2 — Open (Vic Snyder, D, retiring) Supervisor Kenneth Boyd, businessman Ron Ferrin, real worked to buttress his political standing by opposing 2008: Snyder 77%, Deb McFarland (Green) 23% estate investor Laurence Verga, Navy veteran Michael the president 46 percent of the time last year and Snyder’s meager fundraising didn’t set off Democrats’ McPadden and biology teacher Feda Kidd Morton. bucking the House leadership on 55 percent of votes alarms — he’d always waited until the election year Party leaders have decided to use a June 8 primary to that broke mainly along party lines — second-most pick the nominee, which could aid a candidate with a to refill his treasury. But Snyder revealed Jan. 15 that among all House Democrats in both categories. Still, he developed political organization such as Hurt. he’s retiring. Snyder had no GOP foe in 2008, but the remains one of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents. public’s shifting mood has put the seat at risk; Repub- Montgomery City Councilwoman has the licans touted recruit , a senior Hill aide and backing of most Republican leaders to be the chal- LEAN DEMOCRATIC campaign official before George W. Bush named him lenger, but businessman and “tea party” activist Rick 24 — Suzanne M. Kosmas, D U.S. Attorney in Arkansas. But the district’s overall Barber is also running in the June 1 GOP primary. 2008: Kosmas 57%, Rep. (R) 41% GOP leanings aren’t deterring a list of possible Demo- Kosmas cruised past Feeney after he became tarred by cratic hopefuls that includes Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. FLORIDA 8 — , D the lobbying scandal. Although a fresh- LOUISIANA 3 — Open 2008: Grayson 52%, Rep. (R) 48% man is always vulnerable in a somewhat volatile district, (, D, running for Senate) Grayson came out of relative obscurity to score this suburban Orlando seat is trending Democratic, and 2008: Melancon unopposed upsets in both the Democratic primary and general Kosmas starts with an advantage. She’s aided by the fact The conservative Cajun country and delta communi- election, but since then he’s gained national notoriety that Republicans appear headed for a heated Aug. 24 ties south of New Orleans (which went 61 percent for for rhetoric that has sometimes tested the bounds contest involving state Rep. , Winter Park McCain) will be very tough for Democrats to hold with of appropriate public discourse. And so, although City Commissioner Karen Diebel and businessman the incumbent departing, and a raft of Republicans his Orlando- centered district is trending only slightly Jim Foster. Kosmas herself must get through a primary want to be the area’s next member of Congress: State Democratic (Obama carried it by 5 percentage points), against Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka. Rep. Nickie Monica; former state House Speaker Hunt the GOP will likely have little trouble making the case Downer; Lafourche Parish President Charlotte Randolph; that the freshman is too liberal and hyperbolic for his and Billy Nungesser, the son of a former state GOP constituents. Republicans lining up for the Aug. 24 1 — Travis W. Childers, D 2008: Childers 54%, Greg Davis 44% chairman. Democrat , the director of the primary include state Rep. Kurt Kelly, 2008 primary state Department of Natural Resources, may run as contender Todd Long, “tea party” movement activist In the state’s highly conservative rural northeast corner, a Republican. On the Democratic side, the early field Patricia Sullivan, retired pilot Dan Fanelli, physician Childers won a stunning special election upset in May includes Ascension Parish Sheriff Jeff Wiley and state Ken Miller, and restaurateur and developer Armando 2008 and survived that fall (when Obama got just 37 per- Reps. Freddy Mills, Gary Smith and Damon Baldone. Gutierrez Jr; businessman Bruce O’Donoghue is likely. cent of the district vote) by trying to build a center-right record; he kept that effort up last year, bucking the TENNESSEE 8 — Open (John Tanner, D, retiring) president and his leadership on floor votes more often TENNESSEE 6 — Open (Bart Gordon, D, retiring) 2008: Tanner unopposed than all but a handful of House Democrats. But the GOP 2008: Gordon 74%, Chris Baker 26% That Tanner was unchallenged for his 11th term — on a has a strong shot at taking back the seat; party leaders Gordon’s centrist record allowed him to hold the con- day when John McCain carried the mostly rural north- are coalescing around state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, whose servative Middle Tennessee seat for 13 terms, generally west district by 13 points — is testament to his success fundraising is solid, but former Eupora Mayor Henry Ross with ease. Now Democrats have a major headache in a as a fiscally conservative “Blue Dog.” And his departure is forcing a potentially divisive June 1 primary. district that went 62 percent for McCain. Republicans creates a prime Republican pickup opportunity. Even be- have several strong potential contenders facing off fore Tanner announced his retirement, the GOP found a NORTH CAROLINA 8 — Larry Kissell, D Aug. 5. A pair of state senators, Jim Tracy and Diane solid recruit in Stephen Fincher, a farmer and well-known 2008: Kissell 55%, Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 45% Black, lead an expanding pack. The even more-crowded gospel singer who is raising money at a steady clip. State Aided by Obama’s coattails, Kissell ousted Hayes on Democratic field includes Wilson County Sheriff Terry Sen. gave up a gubernatorial bid to run for his second try in the sprawling south-central district, Ashe, Wilson County Property Assessor Jack Pratt and the Democratic nod, although attorney Luther Mercer II which twice went for George W. Bush. But Kissell is Gordon chief of staff Kent Syler. could be a formidable primary opponent if he remains expected to have a tough time securing a second term LIKELY DEMOCRATIC the only African- American in the race; the district is no matter the GOP nominee. Retired Army Col. Lou one-fifth black. The filing deadline is not until April 1. Huddleston, IBM executive Hal Jordan, conservative ARKANSAS 1 — Marion Berry, D activist Tim D’Annunzio and ex-sportscaster Harold 2008: Berry unopposed VIRGINIA 5 — , D Johnson are running. Union County District Attorney Despite the conservative leanings of the state’s rural 2008: Perriello 50.1%, Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. (R), 49.9% John Snyder and former state Rep. Mia White are seri- northeast corner, Berry has cruised through seven Although the district has some liberal pockets around ously considering bids. The filing deadline is Feb. 26. elections, mainly by directing funding back home from Cq GRaPhiC

230 Cq WEEKLY | JanuaRY 25, 2010 | www.cq.com ELECTION 2010

his Appropriations Committee seat. But in the current TENNESSEE 4 — Lincoln Davis, D VIRGINIA 11 — Gerald E. Connolly, D anti-Democrat environment in the state, he could face 2008: Davis 59%, Monty J. Lankford (R) 38% 2008: Connolly 55%, Keith Fimian (R) 43% his toughest race yet against Republican businessman This sprawling rural district is competitive for the GOP A veteran Fairfax County politician, Connolly took and agricultural broadcaster Rick Crawford. on paper (McCain won it with 64 percent), but Davis this suburban seat when it became open two years secured his third and fourth terms pretty handily. Demo- ago (Republican Thomas M. Davis III retired) by a GEORGIA 8 — Jim Marshall, D crats caught a break when he decided not to run for narrower-than-expected 12 points. But chances are the 2008: Marshall 57%, Rick Goddard (R) 43% governor, but they may still have a credible opponent in Democrats will be able to hold on to the seat easily. Marshall has won four terms in the state’s conservative conservative Republican activist Ron Harwell; physician Fimian, founder of the nation’s biggest home inspection central counties (which went 56 percent for McCain) by Scott DesJarlais is also thinking about running. company, has most local and national Republican breaking from party orthodoxy more often than most figures backing his plans for a rematch. But Fairfax Democrats, but he’ll probably never be a truly safe bet TEXAS 17 — Chet Edwards, D County Board member Pat Herrity entered in January to hold the seat. At the moment, Republicans haven’t 2008: Edwards 53%, Rob Curnock (R) 46% as a formidable challenger for the GOP nomination. recruited a top-tier candidate; the deadline is April 30. In this conservative, Waco-centered district (where Running so far are businessman Paul Rish, business- Obama won only 32 percent), Edwards never racks up LIKELY REPUBLICAN woman Angela Hicks, nurse Diane Vann and preacher very strong victories. The question every two years is ALABAMA 3 — Mike D. Rogers, R Ken DeLoach. But two state senators, Cecil Staton and how strenuously national Republicans decide to go after 2008: Rogers 53%, Joshua Segall (D) 47% Allen Peake, have not ruled out running. him. Expected to cruise to victory over an underfunded Rogers won this rural eastern seat by a hair in 2002, a challenger last time, he ended up winning by fewer than strongly Republican year. The district leans only slightly GEORGIA 12 — John Barrow, D 8 points. That has Republicans thinking they could deny to the GOP in presidential cycles, so the right Democrat 2008: Barrow 66%, John Stone (R) 34% Edwards his 11th term. The National Republican Con- could give him a tough race this time. National Demo- gressional Committee is backing wealthy businessman After his first two victories by razor-thin margins, crats were high on Segall, but he proved to be a little too Bill Flores against three lesser-known rivals. Barrow is looking to be on more solid political footing young — and a little too liberal — to pull off a victory. He in territory that takes in Augusta-Richmond and wants to try again in 2010, but Democrats could look TEXAS 23 — Ciro D. Rodriguez, D Savannah. The original Republican recruit for this race, elsewhere. Also mentioned: Calhoun County Commis- 2008: Rodriguez 56%, Lyle Larson (R) 42% orthopedic surgeon Wayne Mosley, dropped out, leaving sioner Robert Downing. The filing deadline is April 2. the party for now with Carl Smith, a former council- Republicans fell well short in this swing district, which man in the town of Thunderbolt, or businesswoman sprawls across West Texas (Obama carried it by just ALABAMA 5 — , R Jeanne Seaver. Barrow does face a primary rematch 3 points), but they insist that this year, with a more 2008: Griffith (D) 51%, Wayne Parker (R) 48% GOP-friendly climate, could be the year to oust Rodri- against former state Sen. Regina Thomas. The district is When Griffith switched parties in December, midway guez. Their field includes Quico Canseco, a wealthy unpredictable enough that it bears watching. through his freshman term, he made it even more lawyer who ran for the nomination in 2008; retired likely the 2010 GOP nominee would win in conserva- government attorney Mike Kueber; and Will Hurd, a for- LOUISIANA 2 — Anh ‘Joseph’ Cao, R tive territory that hugs the Tennessee border and mer CIA employee. Rodriguez has a primary challenge 2008: Cao 50%, Rep. William J. Jefferson (D) 47% takes in Huntsville. Democrats are furious but are from Michael Ortiz, an attorney and veteran. The winner of the biggest House upset of 2008 is unlikely to find a top-tier challenger. But Griffith is no decidedly an underdog to hang on for a second term lock to hold the seat: The two Republicans were run- in overwhelmingly Democratic New Orleans. Despite ning to oppose Griffith the Democrat — Navy veteran his inspiring story as an immigrant from , Cao Lester Phillip, an African-American who has helped K?<I<>@FE won mostly because Democratic incumbent Jefferson the state and national party with minority outreach, was brought down by a corruption scandal; his lone (+,j\Xkj ((.jX]\ )/Zfdg\k`k`m\ and Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks -*;#/)I +*;#.+I )';#/I GOP vote for the health care overhaul will take him — are not yielding to their converted colleague and only so far in a district that gave Obama 75 percent. ** (0 are staying in the June 1 primary. Democrats are likely to have a large and messy /( continued on next page Aug. 28 primary. State Rep. and state Rep. Juan LaFonta are already in. EXk`feXckfkXc I\^`feËjj\Xkj (( +kfjjlgj NORTH CAROLINA 11 — Heath Shuler, D *c\XeI\glYc`ZXe +c\Xe;\dfZiXk`Z M`i^`e`X 2008: Shuler 62%, Carl Mumpower (R) 36% N\jk ) .c`b\cpI\glYc`ZXe ('c`b\cp;\dfZiXk M`i^`e`X B\eklZbp As he seeks a third term, the former football hero ;`jki`Zkj`en_`k\[fefk_Xm\Zfdg\k`k`m\iXZ\j , seems to have a fairly solid hold on his conservative, Asheville-based district, which McCain carried by 5 - Efik_:Xifc`eX / K\ee\jj\\ points. Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman appears FbcX_fdX ( (( / + to be the leading GOP candidate for now, with compe- , tition from businessman Jeff Miller. ) , ( >\fi^`X Jflk_:Xifc`eX ( 8ibXejXj 8cXYXdX SOUTH CAROLINA 5 — John M. Spratt Jr., D * () ) 2008: Spratt 62%, Albert F. Spencer (R) 37% D`jj`jj`gg` / Even in his toughest race in Cfl`j`XeX years — against a wealthy state legisla- (. ) tor four years ago — Spratt nonetheless )* K\oXj cruised to victory by 14 points in the =cfi`[X rural and conservative northern reaches * ) )+ of the state. But in a year of good tidings for / Republicans, the party thinks it’s found a worthy () (' challenger to the Budget Committee chairman in (- freshman state Sen. Mick Mulvaney. Cq GRaPhiC

www.cq.com | JanuaRY 25, 2010 | Cq WEEKLY 231 COVER STORY

FLORIDA 10 — C.W. , R 2008: Young 61%, Bob Hackworth (D) 39% West: Democrats Play Defense Now 79 years old and in his 40th year in the House, Congressional politics in the West have long provided a contrast, with Democrats thriving in the the senior Appropriations Committee member is the coastal states and Republicans dominating in the mountain states. That GOP edge was eroded object of persistent retirement rumors, and his St. Pe- deeply by the national Democratic surge of the past two elections, but this is the year of Repub- tersburg-area district will likely flip to the Democrats lican pushback: Three of the four Democratic incumbents in the region’s tossup districts, and whenever he moves on. He says he’ll make a final seven others who face competitive challenges, were first elected in 2006 or 2008. decision well before the April 30 deadline but raised a only few thousand dollars last fall — and he cut TOSSUPS of Obama in 2008, and district voters twice narrowly the National Republican Congressional Committee a 4 — , D favored Bush. Republicans see a solid recruit in state $10,000 check despite the fact that he would possibly 2008: Markey 56%, Rep. (R) 44% Rep. Jaime Herrera, a former aide to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Spokane. Democrats are counter- have a tough race. Democrats got a gift when state Markey had a surprisingly easy time denying a fourth ing with state Rep. Deb Wallace. But both recruits will Sen. Charlie Justice announced he would run in 2010. term to Musgrave, a conservative whose focus on face primaries Aug. 17. Republican candidates will social issues looked out of step with 2008’s economic FLORIDA 12 — Open also include Washougal City Councilman Jon Russell, woes. Still, the state’s vast eastern plains remain (Adam H. Putnam, R, running for state office) financial adviser David Castillo and Marine veteran ­solidly conservative — the district narrowly favored 2008: Putnam 57%, Doug Tudor (D) 43% David Hedrick. Also in the Democratic field are state John McCain for president even as Barack Obama Although he was considered a rising star in the Sen. Craig Pridemore, Hispanic activist Maria Rodri- carried the state, and it was lopsided for George House GOP, Putnam is leaving to run for state agricul- guez Salazar and broadcasting magnate . W. Bush in his two elections — and so Markey will ture commissioner, making the district reasonably have to work hard for her second term. National competitive (it was close to dead-even for president ­Republicans view state Rep. as their LEAN DEMOCRATIC in 2008). Former state Rep. Lori Edwards is running strongest contender. It will take some time for them 5 — Harry E. Mitchell, D for the Democrats, as is the 2008 nominee, Tudor. to sort out their field, however. University of Colorado 2008: Mitchell 53%, David Schweikert (R) 44% Former state Rep. is the favorite of GOP Regent Tom Lucero, former Fort Collins City Council- leaders and has been endorsed by Putnam. A genial former Tempe mayor, Mitchell upset six-term man Diggs Brown and conservative activist Dean Republican J.D. Hayworth and held the seat relatively FLORIDA 16 — Tom Rooney, R Madere are in the race for the Aug. 10 primary. easily against Schweikert, a former Maricopa County 2008: Rooney 60%, Rep. (D) 40% treasurer — rebutting GOP strategists who argue that IDAHO 1 — Walt Minnick, D Rooney defeated a one-term incumbent who was this district near Phoenix should be theirs. (Bush car- 2008: Minnick 51%, Rep. Bill Sali (R) 49% dragged down by personal scandal, and Republicans ried it with ease both times, and favorite son McCain consider him a rising star. But this Palm Beach‑area Minnick is trying to survive in Idaho’s western half also prevailed there.) Republicans are likely to contest district is volatile enough that both parties will be about as well as any Democrat can: He bucked the par- the seat again, but it’s too early to measure the inten- keeping an eye on this year’s race. The only Demo- ty line 59 percent of the time last year, more often than sity of the threat. Schweikert wants a rematch; busi- cratic challenger so far, though, is 36-year-old St. any other House Democrat, and opposed the president nessmen Jim Ward and Eric Wnuck have jumped in the Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft. 32 percent of the time, near the top in his caucus. But race for the Aug. 24 primary; former state Rep. Susan it’s unclear whether even that will be enough to get him Bitter Smith, the 2008 primary runner-up, and Tempe SOUTH CAROLINA 1 — Open a second term in a district where Obama took just 36 Mayor Hugh Hallman may also join the field. (Henry E. Brown Jr., R, retiring) percent. Minnick was aided in 2008 by the fact that his 2008: Brown 52%, Linda Ketner (D) 48% opponent had personally alienated many Republicans HAWAII 1 — Open Brown’s retirement announcement wasn’t altogether during his single term. Sali hasn’t ruled out a rematch (Neil Abercrombie, D, plans to resign Feb. 28) surprising. He’s 74 and had by far his toughest race bid, but GOP officials would much prefer a fresh face. 2008: Abercrombie 77%, Steve Tataii (R) 19% last time even though the Charleston-centered district The May 25 primary field includes Iraq War veteran Having held the Honolulu seat since 1990, Abercrombie went for McCain by 14 points. And, as Brown pon- Vaughn Ward, who has been endorsed by Arizona decided a year ago to run for governor — and last dered a sixth term, he faced several serious potential Sen. John McCain, and state Rep. Raúl Labrador. month announced that he would quit Congress to primary challengers. Now the big GOP field for the pursue that goal. The district has been GOP-held for just open seat includes Carroll Campbell III, the son of a NEW MEXICO 2 — Harry Teague, D four years since Hawaii became a state in 1959, but the former governor; Isle of Palms City Councilman Ryan 2008: Teague 56%, Ed Tinsley (R) 44% wide-open, all-candidate, winner-take-all nature of the Buckhannon; Katherine Jenerette, a former Brown Opportunity knocked for the Democrats in 2008 when not-yet‑scheduled special election gives the GOP an un- aide; Charleston County Councilman Paul Thurmond, Republican Rep. Steve Pearce ran for the Senate in- usual chance. Honolulu City Councilman is son of the late senator; and former Rep. Thomas stead of a fourth term in this longtime GOP stronghold likely to be the only strong Republican. Democrats fear F. Hartnett. Ketner, the 2008 Democratic nominee, in the state’s rural southern half. And Teague, a wealthy their vote will be split between two prominent figures: Ed mulled running again but decided not to; the June 8 oilman, took full advantage to win by a surprisingly Case, who held the state’s other House seat for part of primary ballot may include state Rep. Leon Stavrina- wide margin in a strong Democratic year. But he now the previous decade, and state Senate President Colleen kis and former state Rep. Robert Barber. faces a tough fight to be more than a one-term wonder Hanabusa. Democratic leaders are now talking about as Pearce stages a well-financed comeback bid. changing the system to require primaries or delaying SOUTH CAROLINA 2 — Joe Wilson, R Although Teague is more moderate than most House the special election until September so it coincides with 2008: Wilson 54%, Rob Miller (D) 46% Democrats, Republicans are portraying him as too tied the regular primary. A Democratic special election win- In 2008, Wilson held this south-central seat for a to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, focusing on his vote for the ner would be a heavy fall favorite; a Djou victory would fourth full term by only 8 points against a political cap-and-trade bill. But Teague and his likely be only a short-lived triumph for the GOP. unknown, Iraq War veteran Rob Miller. Miller is own big campaign bankroll can’t be counted out. ­running again, and this time the national Demo- NEVADA 3 — Dina Titus, D 3 — Open (Brian Baird, D, retiring) 2008: Titus 47%, Rep. Jon Porter (R) 42% cratic Party will be watching closely. Wilson’s “You 2008: Baird 64%, Michael Delavar (R) 36% Titus’ upset win two years ago relieved the frustra- lie!” outburst during President Obama’s September Baird’s unexpected decision to retire is a headache for tions of Democrats, whose past recruiting problems c

speech before Congress about health care has put hi

House Democrats. His personal support over a dozen thwarted their efforts in the suburban Las Vegas p a him in the sights of grass-roots Democratic activ- years in the House exceeded that of his party in the district, which was drawn to be politically competitive. gr q ists. Miller and Wilson both raised more than $1.5 state’s southwestern corner: He ran 11 points ahead Titus, a longtime party leader in the state Senate, is an c

232 CQ WEEKLY | January 25, 2010 | www.cq.com NXj_`e^kfe ELECTION 2010 / * accomplished pol, but her plurality win and slim margin pro-development Resources Committee chair- over Porter won’t prevent a serious challenger this time. , ( DfekXeX man. Yet McNerney, helped by Obama’s strong Fi\^fe Former state Sen. Joe Heck is the establishment GOP showing in the San Joaquin Valley, held the seat + candidate, but he faces real estate investor Rob last time with relative ease. Several Republicans Lauer, who is touting his conservative bona fides. @[X_f think they could oust him in a better environment for their party. They include Tony Amador, recently Npfd`e^ LEAN REPUBLICAN a U.S. marshal in the state; businessman David At-Large — , R Harmer, who ran in the 10th District special election 2008: Young 50%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 45% last year; and Brad Goehring, a vineyard owner. The state’s only House member since 1973 de- E\mX[X * 47 — Loretta Sanchez, D fied pollsters by surviving two years ago against (( + 2008: Sanchez 70%, Rosemarie Avila (R) 25% the former state House minority leader. He LkX_ This majority-Hispanic Orange County district remains burdened by ethical questions that have :Xc`]fie`X :fcfiX[f is reliably Democratic, but not by as much associated him with a sweeping state corruption * as Sanchez’s landslide margins over recent scandal but has caught a couple of breaks: His E\nD\o`Zf little-known foes would suggest. Reaching for 2008 primary opponent, Sean Parnell, is now run- +. ++ 8i`qfeX a stronger challenger, Republican recruiters tout ning for a full term as governor (having moved up to +, ( state Rep. , a member of the Vietnam- the job when Sarah Palin resigned), and Berkowitz ( * ese-American community, the area’s other big is also seeking the state’s top job. But the ) 8cXjbX ethnic group, but he has primary competition. 76-year-old incumbent is again fighting on two 8k$CXi^\ / fronts. Andrew Halcro, a conservative who ran ( NEW MEXICO 1 — Martin Heinrich, D for governor as an independent in 2006, wants ?XnX`` 2008: Heinrich 56%, Darren White (R) 44% the GOP nomination. And Democratic state Rep. K?<I<>@FE Harry Crawford, who is more of the rough-hewn The 1st is at least a swing district and may be Demo- Alaskan model typified by Young than is Berkowitz, 0/j\Xkj ./jX]\ )'Zfdg\k`k`m\ cratic-leaning, yet Heinrich’s open-seat win in 2008 is gearing up for the fall. -*;#*,I +0;#)0I (+;#-I broke a four-decade GOP hold. The former Albuquerque city councilman has a solid edge in this year’s race, even )* )' CALIFORNIA 3 — Dan Lungren, R though times are tougher for Democrats. Jon Barela, a 2008: Lungren 50%, Bill Durston (D) 44% /' prominent Hispanic business leader, appears to have the inside track for the Republican nomination. After a decade representing Southern California in EXk`feXckfkXc I\^`feËjj\Xkj the House and eight years as state attorney general, OREGON 4 — Peter A. DeFazio, D Lungren easily won his 2004 and 2006 races for this +kfjjlgj 2008: DeFazio 82%, Jaynee Germond (Constitution) 13% suburban Sacramento seat. But he won by just 6 +c\XeI\glYc`ZXe *c\Xe;\dfZiXk`Z The Eugene-based seat will be seriously competitive points in 2008 against the little-known Durston, whom )c`b\cpI\glYc`ZXe .c`b\cp;\dfZiXk only if DeFazio makes a late move to run for governor. he beat by 22 points two years earlier. (The district’s ;`jki`Zkj`en_`k\[fefk_Xm\Zfdg\k`k`m\iXZ\j The Republicans touted their recruit, Springfield Mayor vote for president was a virtual tie.) All that has whet Sid Leiken, but he’s seen sluggish fundraising and a Democrats’ appetite for a stronger challenger, and LIKELY DEMOCRATIC state fine for using campaign funds to pay his mother they may have one in physician Ameriash Bera, who ARIZONA 1 — Ann Kirkpatrick, D for a poll that does not appear to have been taken. has been raising money at a steady clip. 2008: Kirkpatrick 56%, Sydney Hay (R) 39% The 59,000-square-mile district has a close partisan OREGON 5 — Kurt Schrader, D CALIFORNIA 44 — Ken Calvert, R 2008: Schrader 54%, Mike Erickson (R) 38% 2008: Calvert 51%, Bill Hedrick (D) 49% split; McCain carried it by 10 points but Kirkpatrick won by 17 points, greatly helped when the GOP incumbent This is typically a swing district, and Schrader’s easy A teacher who’s the longtime board of education dropped out as he prepared to face a 35-count cor- open-seat win to succeed Democrat Darlene Hooley president for one of the state’s biggest school districts, ruption indictment. Republicans couldn’t get an A-list came in part because Erickson’s campaign imploded. Hedrick is seeking a rematch for this Riverside-area replacement then and have recruiting problems this Republicans think they’ll be more competitive this time seat after coming within 2 points of what would have year. State Rep. Bill Konopnicki would be a good option behind state Rep. Scott Bruun, but it’s not clear yet that been one of the bigger upsets in 2008. He may be but has expressed distaste for likely minority status on Schrader is in real danger. hard-pressed to do better in 2010, as this is a less Capitol Hill. Former state Sen. Rusty Bowers is running. pro-Democratic year, and Obama, who narrowly carried LIKELY REPUBLICAN the district, isn’t on the ballot. But Calvert has drawn ARIZONA 8 — Gabrielle Giffords, D some scrutiny for questionable land deals and faces a 2008: Giffords 55%, Timothy S. Bee (R) 43% ARIZONA 3 — Open (, R, retiring) primary challenge from real estate investor Chris Riggs. If the race gets tough in this district (which includes 2008: Shadegg 54%, Bob Lord (D) 42% part of Tucson and went for McCain by 6 points), The incumbent’s recent retirement announcement could WASHINGTON 8 — Dave Reichert, R expect Democratic strategists to go all out to protect prompt a crowded primary in GOP-leaning northern 2008: Reichert 53%, Darcy Burner (D) 47% Giffords, whom they see as a rising star. Her open-seat Phoenix. State Rep. Sam Crump jumped right in and Democrats insist they will unseat Reichert eventually win four years ago was abetted by the hard-right other notables have also joined the field. But Shadegg’s in this suburban Seattle district, which favored Obama views of the GOP nominee. But even against Bee, a margin last time was his smallest in his eight elections, by 14 points. But if they don’t do it this year, when the less-ideological state senator, Giffords won easily. and Democrats are bullish on businessman Jon Hulburd. incumbent is seeking his fourth term, their hopes may GOP officials hailed the January entry of state Sen. hinge on Reichert getting a bad deal in the upcoming Jonathan Paton, though Iraq War veteran Jesse Kelly CALIFORNIA 45 — Mary Bono Mack, R redistricting. Party officials have touted Suzan DelBene, is also seeking the nomination. 2008: Bono Mack 58%, Julie Bornstein (D) 42% a former Microsoft executive who has personal wealth Few expected Sonny Bono’s widow to last long as his and demonstrated fundraising skills. It won’t be easy, CALIFORNIA 11 — Jerry McNerney, D successor in this Southern California seat. But a dozen though, as Reichert has been well-known since his days 2008: McNerney 55%, Dean Andal (R) 45% years later she’s got a relatively solid hold on a district as King County sheriff and takes a more moderate line The GOP labeled McNerney, a wind turbine engineer, a Obama carried by 5 points. Still, Democrats hail Palm Cq GRaPhiC than most House Republicans. fluke after his 2006 upset of Richard W. Pombo, then the Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet as a strong challenger.

www.cq.com | JanuaRY 25, 2010 | Cq WEEKLY 233