South: Probable Republican Comeback Territory
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COVER STORY South: Probable Republican Comeback Territory The pro-Democratic national trend that prevailed in 2006 and 2008 enabled the party to score VIRGINIA 2 — Glenn Nye, D some hard-won key victories in the South, a region that had emerged as a Republican congres- 2008: Nye 52%, Rep. Thelma Drake (R) 47% sional stronghold over the past couple of decades. Many of those captured districts have pretty One of three Democrats in 2008 to take a House seat conservative electorates, however, which is why several freshman and sophomore Democrats away from the GOP in the state, Nye may well have face tough fights to hold their seats in the era of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Adding to the a tough time holding the Virginia Beach- centered, party’s worries are seats in Tennessee, Arkansas and Louisiana left open by senior Democrats. military-focused district, especially in a big year for But it would take an incredibly Republican year for the GOP to hold the New Orleans seat that Republicans. The previous incumbent, Drake, is sup- the party won in 2008 because the Democratic incumbent was under indictment for corruption. porting car dealership owner Scott Rigell in the June 8 GOP primary. Republicans also running are retired TOSSUPS Charlottesville, it’s basically conservative; McCain car- Navy SEALs Ed Maulbeck and Scott Taylor, and Naval ALABAMA 2 — Bobby Bright, D ried it by 3 points. And so, despite opposing Obama and Reserve Capt. Ben Loyola. Former Virginia Beach GOP 2008: Bright 50.2%, Jay Love (R) 49.6% the House leadership more often than most Democrats Chairman Chuck Smith entered the race but dropped in his first year, Perriello is one of the most vulnerable in- out and endorsed Rigell. The former mayor of Montgomery’s narrow victory (on cumbents in the country. Republican officials’ preferred a day when Barack Obama’s share of the district vote challenger is state Sen. Robert Hurt, although there LEAN REPUBLICAN was just 37 percent) put the state’s “Wiregrass” district are several contenders, including Albemarle County in Democratic hands for the first time since 1964. Bright ARKANSAS 2 — Open (Vic Snyder, D, retiring) Supervisor Kenneth Boyd, businessman Ron Ferrin, real worked to buttress his political standing by opposing 2008: Snyder 77%, Deb McFarland (Green) 23% estate investor Laurence Verga, Navy veteran Michael the president 46 percent of the time last year and Snyder’s meager fundraising didn’t set off Democrats’ McPadden and biology teacher Feda Kidd Morton. bucking the House leadership on 55 percent of votes alarms — he’d always waited until the election year Party leaders have decided to use a June 8 primary to that broke mainly along party lines — second-most pick the nominee, which could aid a candidate with a to refill his treasury. But Snyder revealed Jan. 15 that among all House Democrats in both categories. Still, he developed political organization such as Hurt. he’s retiring. Snyder had no GOP foe in 2008, but the remains one of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents. public’s shifting mood has put the seat at risk; Repub- Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby has the licans touted recruit Tim Griffin, a senior Hill aide and backing of most Republican leaders to be the chal- LEAN DEMOCRATIC campaign official before George W. Bush named him lenger, but businessman and “tea party” activist Rick FLORIDA 24 — Suzanne M. Kosmas, D U.S. Attorney in Arkansas. But the district’s overall Barber is also running in the June 1 GOP primary. 2008: Kosmas 57%, Rep. Tom Feeney (R) 41% GOP leanings aren’t deterring a list of possible Demo- Kosmas cruised past Feeney after he became tarred by cratic hopefuls that includes Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. FLORIDA 8 — Alan Grayson, D the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal. Although a fresh- LOUISIANA 3 — Open 2008: Grayson 52%, Rep. Ric Keller (R) 48% man is always vulnerable in a somewhat volatile district, (Charlie Melancon, D, running for Senate) Grayson came out of relative obscurity to score this suburban Orlando seat is trending Democratic, and 2008: Melancon unopposed upsets in both the Democratic primary and general Kosmas starts with an advantage. She’s aided by the fact The conservative Cajun country and delta communi- election, but since then he’s gained national notoriety that Republicans appear headed for a heated Aug. 24 ties south of New Orleans (which went 61 percent for for rhetoric that has sometimes tested the bounds contest involving state Rep. Sandy Adams, Winter Park McCain) will be very tough for Democrats to hold with of appropriate public discourse. And so, although City Commissioner Karen Diebel and businessman the incumbent departing, and a raft of Republicans his Orlando- centered district is trending only slightly Jim Foster. Kosmas herself must get through a primary want to be the area’s next member of Congress: State Democratic (Obama carried it by 5 percentage points), against Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka. Rep. Nickie Monica; former state House Speaker Hunt the GOP will likely have little trouble making the case Downer; Lafourche Parish President Charlotte Randolph; that the freshman is too liberal and hyperbolic for his and Billy Nungesser, the son of a former state GOP constituents. Republicans lining up for the Aug. 24 MISSISSIPPI 1 — Travis W. Childers, D 2008: Childers 54%, Greg Davis 44% chairman. Democrat Scott Angelle, the director of the primary include state Rep. Kurt Kelly, 2008 primary state Department of Natural Resources, may run as contender Todd Long, “tea party” movement activist In the state’s highly conservative rural northeast corner, a Republican. On the Democratic side, the early field Patricia Sullivan, retired pilot Dan Fanelli, physician Childers won a stunning special election upset in May includes Ascension Parish Sheriff Jeff Wiley and state Ken Miller, and restaurateur and developer Armando 2008 and survived that fall (when Obama got just 37 per- Reps. Freddy Mills, Gary Smith and Damon Baldone. Gutierrez Jr; businessman Bruce O’Donoghue is likely. cent of the district vote) by trying to build a center-right record; he kept that effort up last year, bucking the TENNESSEE 8 — Open (John Tanner, D, retiring) president and his leadership on floor votes more often TENNESSEE 6 — Open (Bart Gordon, D, retiring) 2008: Tanner unopposed than all but a handful of House Democrats. But the GOP 2008: Gordon 74%, Chris Baker 26% That Tanner was unchallenged for his 11th term — on a has a strong shot at taking back the seat; party leaders Gordon’s centrist record allowed him to hold the con- day when John McCain carried the mostly rural north- are coalescing around state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, whose servative Middle Tennessee seat for 13 terms, generally west district by 13 points — is testament to his success fundraising is solid, but former Eupora Mayor Henry Ross with ease. Now Democrats have a major headache in a as a fiscally conservative “Blue Dog.” And his departure is forcing a potentially divisive June 1 primary. district that went 62 percent for McCain. Republicans creates a prime Republican pickup opportunity. Even be- have several strong potential contenders facing off fore Tanner announced his retirement, the GOP found a NORTH CAROLINA 8 — Larry Kissell, D Aug. 5. A pair of state senators, Jim Tracy and Diane solid recruit in Stephen Fincher, a farmer and well-known 2008: Kissell 55%, Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 45% Black, lead an expanding pack. The even more-crowded gospel singer who is raising money at a steady clip. State Aided by Obama’s coattails, Kissell ousted Hayes on Democratic field includes Wilson County Sheriff Terry Sen. Roy Herron gave up a gubernatorial bid to run for his second try in the sprawling south-central district, Ashe, Wilson County Property Assessor Jack Pratt and the Democratic nod, although attorney Luther Mercer II which twice went for George W. Bush. But Kissell is Gordon chief of staff Kent Syler. could be a formidable primary opponent if he remains expected to have a tough time securing a second term LIKELY DEMOCRATIC the only African- American in the race; the district is no matter the GOP nominee. Retired Army Col. Lou one-fifth black. The filing deadline is not until April 1. Huddleston, IBM executive Hal Jordan, conservative ARKANSAS 1 — Marion Berry, D activist Tim D’Annunzio and ex-sportscaster Harold 2008: Berry unopposed VIRGINIA 5 — Tom Perriello, D Johnson are running. Union County District Attorney Despite the conservative leanings of the state’s rural 2008: Perriello 50.1%, Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. (R), 49.9% John Snyder and former state Rep. Mia White are seri- northeast corner, Berry has cruised through seven Although the district has some liberal pockets around ously considering bids. The filing deadline is Feb. 26. elections, mainly by directing funding back home from CQ GRAPHIC 230 CQ WEEKLY | JANUARY 25, 2010 | www.cq.com ELECTION 2010 his Appropriations Committee seat. But in the current TENNESSEE 4 — Lincoln Davis, D VIRGINIA 11 — Gerald E. Connolly, D anti-Democrat environment in the state, he could face 2008: Davis 59%, Monty J. Lankford (R) 38% 2008: Connolly 55%, Keith Fimian (R) 43% his toughest race yet against Republican businessman This sprawling rural district is competitive for the GOP A veteran Fairfax County politician, Connolly took and agricultural broadcaster Rick Crawford. on paper (McCain won it with 64 percent), but Davis this suburban seat when it became open two years secured his third and fourth terms pretty handily. Demo- ago (Republican Thomas M. Davis III retired) by a GEORGIA 8 — Jim Marshall, D crats caught a break when he decided not to run for narrower-than-expected 12 points.