ISHAN NATH ishannath.com [email protected]

Office Contact Information 1126 E. 59th Street – Saieh Hall for Economics Chicago, IL 60637 Cell Phone: 404-790-0361

Placement Directors: Professor Ufuk Akcigit, [email protected], 773-702-0433

Graduate Student Coordinator: Robert Herbst, [email protected], 773-834-1972

Personal Information: Citizenship – USA

Employment The Department of Economics, Energy Policy Institute, and Climate Impact Lab Postdoctoral Scholar, 2019 – Present.

Education The University of Chicago, 2014 – 2019 Ph.D. in Economics Thesis Title: The Food Problem and the Aggregate Productivity Consequences of Climate Change

University of Oxford, 2012 – 2014 MPhil in Economics

Stanford University, 2008 – 2012 B.A. in Economics (with honors and distinction) B.S. in Earth Systems (with distinction)

References: Professor Michael Greenstone Professor Chang-Tai Hsieh University of Chicago University of Chicago Booth School of Business 773-702-8250 773-834-0590 [email protected] [email protected]

Professor Pete Klenow 650-725-3266 [email protected]

Teaching and Research Fields: Primary fields: Public Economics,

Secondary fields: Macro Development Teaching Experience: Fall, 2017 Graduate Public Finance II / Energy & Environmental Economics II, Winter, 2017 University of Chicago, Teaching Assistant for Michael Greenstone

Spring, 2017 Graduate Public Finance III – “New Developments in Public Finance,” University of Chicago, Teaching Assistant for Neale Mahoney, Owen Zidar, Seth Zimmerman, and Eric Zwick

Fall, 2017 Undergraduate “The Global Climate and Energy Challenge,” University of Chicago, Teaching Assistant for Michael Greenstone and John Deutch

Spring 2017 Undergraduate “Economics for Everyone,” University of Chicago, Teaching Assistant for Steven Levitt and John List

Research Experience and Other Employment: 2017-Present Census Bureau, Special Sworn Status 2015-19 Climate Impact Lab, Graduate Student Researcher 2016 EPIC India, New Delhi Office, Summer Research Assistant 2015-16 University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Research Assistant for Chang-Tai Hsieh 2012-13 MIT Department of Economics, Research Assistant for Michael Greenstone 2012-13 Harvard University Department of Economics, Research Assistant for Melissa Dell 2012 Environmental Defense Fund, Consultant 2012 United States Department of the Treasury, Economic Policy Office, Intern 2011 Stanford University Department of Economics, Research Assistant for Lawrence Goulder 2011 White House, Economic Policy Office of the Vice President, Intern 2010 The Carter Center, Intern 2010 National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, Senior Consultant

Non-Academic Publications “Economic Perspectives on Liability and Insurance.” National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling Staff Working Paper, 2011.

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: 2012 Rhodes Scholarship 2012 John G. Sobieski Stanford Undergraduate Thesis Award for Creative Thinking in Economics 2012 Stanford School of Earth Sciences Dean’s Award for Academic Achievement 2011 Harry S. Truman Scholarship 2011 Morris K. Udall Scholarship

Professional Activities: Referee: Journal of Political Economy, American Economic Review: Insights, Earth’s Future, Journal of International Economics, Environment and Conference and Seminar Presentations: 2021 (Scheduled) San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics 2020 UCLA Climate Adaptation Research Symposium 2020 NBER Agricultural Markets and Trade Policy Conference 2020 UC Berkeley Clausen Center and Peterson Institute for International Economics Conference on Macroeconomic Implications of Trade Policies 2019 University of Chicago EPIC Lunch 2019 NBER Energy & Environment Summer Institute Egg-Timer 2019 Columbia University Young Economists Symposium 2018 University of Chicago Development Lunch 2016 Delhi University St. Stephen’s College 2013, 2014 Stanford School of Earth Sciences

Research Papers: “The Food Problem and the Aggregate Productivity Consequences of Climate Change” (Job Market Paper)

This paper integrates local temperature treatment effects and a quantitative macroeconomic model to evaluate the impact of climate change on sectoral reallocation and aggregate productivity. First, I use firm-level data from a wide range of countries to estimate the effect of temperature on productivity in manufacturing and services. Estimates suggest that extreme heat reduces non-agricultural productivity, but less so than in agriculture, implying that hot countries could adapt to climate change by importing food and shifting labor toward manufacturing. Second, I embed my estimates in an open-economy model of structural transformation covering 158 countries to investigate this possibility. Simulations suggest that subsistence food requirements drive agricultural specialization more than comparative advantage, however, such that climate change perversely pulls labor into agriculture where its productivity suffers most, limiting the gains from reallocation. The productivity effects of climate change reduce welfare by 1.5-2.7% overall and 6-10% for the poorest quartile. Trade reduces the welfare costs of climate change by only 7.4% under existing policy, but by 31% overall and 68% for the global poor in a counterfactual scenario that assigns all countries the 90th percentile level of trade openness.

“Do Renewable Portfolio Standards Deliver Cost-Effective Carbon Abatement?” (with Michael Greenstone)

The most prevalent and perhaps most popular climate policies in the U.S. are Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) that mandate that renewables (e.g. wind and solar) produce a specified share of electricity, yet little is known about their efficiency. Using the most comprehensive data set ever compiled and a difference-in-differences style research design, we find that electricity prices are 11% higher seven years after RPS passage, largely due to indirect grid integration costs (e.g. transmission and intermittency). On the benefit side, carbon emissions are 10-25% lower. The cost per ton of CO2 abatement ranges from $58-298 and is generally above $100.

“A Global View of Creative Destruction” (with Chang-Tai Hsieh and Pete Klenow)

U.S. exports exhibit the telltale signs of creative destruction on a global scale: simultaneous expansion and contraction across categories and firms. The exports of exporting firms are considerably more volatile than are the domestic sales of the same firms. To mimic these patterns, we formulate a model of creative destruction by both domestic and foreign firms. In the model, trade liberalization (or openness more generally) quickens the pace of creative destruction, thereby speeding the flow of technology across countries. The resulting dynamic gains from trade and openness are an order of magnitude larger than the gains in a standard static trade model. “Estimating a Social Cost of Carbon for Global Energy Consumption” (with Ashwin Rode, Tamma Carleton, Michael Delgado, Trevor Houser, Solomon Hsiang, Andrew Hultgren, Amir Jina, Robert Kopp, Kelly McCusker, Ishan Nath, James Rising, Justin Simcock, and Jiacan Yuan) Revise and Resubmit at Nature

The global marginal damage caused by emitting a single ton of carbon dioxide (CO2), or its equivalent, is key to climate policy, but our current understanding of its value is based on spatially- coarse theoretical-numerical models that are not tightly linked to data. We develop the first architecture that integrates best-available data, econometrics, and climate science to estimate climate damages worldwide at the local level, as well as aggregated global marginal damages. Here we apply this architecture to construct the first global empirical estimates of the impact of climate change on total non-transport end-use energy consumption, one of the most uncertain impacts in current models. At end-of-century, we project annual global electricity consumption to rise roughly 4 EJ (1100 TWh, 6% of current global consumption) for each 1°C increase in global mean temperature, reflecting increased cooling demand, while direct consumption of other fuels declines 10.1 EJ (6% of current global consumption) per 1°C, reflecting reduced heating. Together, these estimates indicate that emission of 1 ton of CO2 today produces global net savings in future aggregate energy consumption of about $1 in net present value (3% discount rate). This finding is largely driven by a sharply nonlinear relationship between income and temperature-induced energy consumption, which indicates that for most of the 21st century, much of the world is expected to remain too poor to increase energy consumption in response to warmer temperatures. By end-of-century, emerging economies in the tropics (e.g. India) are projected to increase electricity consumption dramatically, but these rising costs are offset by heating reductions in the wealthy economies of North America and Europe.

“Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits” (with Tamma Carleton, Michael Delgado, Trevor Houser, Solomon Hsiang, Andrew Hultgren, Amir Jina, Robert Kopp, Kelly McCusker, Ishan Nath, James Rising, Ashwin Rode, Samuel Seo, Justin Simcock, Arvid Viaene, Jiacan Yuan, and Alice Zhang)

This paper develops the first globally comprehensive and empirically grounded estimates of mortality risk due to future temperature increases caused by climate change. Using 40 countries' subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships that enable both extrapolation to countries without data and projection into future years while accounting for adaptation. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly, that is flattened by both higher incomes and adaptation to local climate (e.g., robust heating systems in cold climates and cooling systems in hot climates). Further, we develop a revealed preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs. We combine these components with 33 high-resolution climate simulations that together capture scientific uncertainty about the degree of future temperature change. Under a high emissions scenario, we estimate the mean increase in mortality risk is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100, with today's cold locations benefiting and damages being especially large in today's poor and/or hot locations. Finally, we estimate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mean [interquartile range] damages of $36.6 [- $7.8, $73.0] under a high emissions scenario and $17.1 [-$24.7, $53.6] under a moderate scenario, using a 2% discount rate that is justified by US Treasury rates over the last two decades. Globally, these empirically grounded estimates substantially exceed the previous literature's estimates that lacked similar empirical grounding, suggesting that revision of the estimated economic damage from climate change is warranted. “Will the ‘Corn Belt’ Persist? The Optimizing Farmer and the Welfare Consequences of Climate Change” (with Michael Greenstone and Arvid Viaene)

This paper presents revealed preference estimates of how North American farmers will adapt to climate change. We estimate a discrete choice model that allows us to calculate farmer willingness-to- pay for changes in temperature and project how farmers will reallocate land use in response to climate change. Combining these estimates allows us to quantify the gains from adaptation. Our forecasts suggest that U.S. corn and soybeans production declines sharply over the next several decades in the severe climate change scenario and could virtually disappear by the late 21st century as farmers shift away from planting these heat-sensitive crops. Reallocating crop choice considerably insulates farmers from the welfare consequences of climate change as a disproportionate share of the burden falls on consumers. Projections for a broad range of crops and geography suggest that American farmers will substantially expand production of some presently minor crops while staples, such as soybeans, migrate northward and eventually become ubiquitous in Canada.

Work in Progress: “The Spatial (In)efficiency of Global Water Use” (with Tamma Carleton and Levi Crews)

“Does Climate Change Have Long-Run Growth Effects?” (with Pete Klenow and Valerie Ramey)

“The Impact of Competitive Bidding Platforms on Market Power, Prices, and Welfare in Indian Agricultural Markets” (with Michael Dinerstein, Vishan Nigam, and Prasanta Kumar Swain)

“Price Controls as Disaster Response: How State Laws Against Price Gouging Affect Consumers and Firms” (with Johanna Rayl and Becky Scurlock)

“Estimating an Empirically Founded Social Cost of Carbon” (with the Climate Impact Lab)

“Labor Supply in a Warmer World: The Impact of Climate Change on the Global Workforce” (with the Climate Impact Lab)

“The Impacts of Climate Change on Global Grain Production” (with the Climate Impact Lab)