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I NUMERICAL ANALYSIS of the EFFECTS of ATMOSPHERIC

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I NUMERICAL ANALYSIS of the EFFECTS of ATMOSPHERIC NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS ON SPACE LAUNCH CENTER SAFETY A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY İBRAHİM YAMAN IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MECHANICAL ENGINEERING JANUARY 2016 i Approval of the thesis: NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS ON SPACE LAUNCH CENTER SAFETY submitted by İBRAHİM YAMAN in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Gülbin Dural Ünver . Dean, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Tuna Balkan . Head of Department, Mechanical Engineering Prof. Dr. Mehmet Haluk Aksel . Supervisor, Mechanical Engineering Dept., METU Dr. Mehmet Ali Ak . Co-Supervisor, Roketsan Missiles Inc. Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Kahraman Albayrak . Mechanical Engineering Dept., METU Prof. Dr. Mehmet Haluk Aksel . Mechanical Engineering Dept., METU Assoc. Dr. Mehmet Metin Yavuz . Mechanical Engineering Dept., METU Asst. Dr. Cüneyt Sert . Mechanical Engineering Dept., METU Asst. Dr. Özgür Uğraş Baran . Mechanical Engineering Dept., TEDU Date: . iii I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : İbrahim Yaman Signature : iv ABSTRACT NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS ON SPACE LAUNCH CENTER SAFETY Yaman, İbrahim M.S., Department of Mechanical Engineering Supervisor: Prof. Dr. M. Haluk Aksel January 2016, 147 Pages This thesis study aims at the problem of space launch center safety which is dependent on launch vehicle conceptual design and atmospheric parameters. Selection of the concept at the initial step of the satellite launch vehicle affects the project cost and space launch center safety directly. It is also important to model properties of atmospheric conditions and conduct safety analysis. Successful mission for a launch vehicle depends on providing the total velocity requirement. In this study, launch vehicle performance that is necessary for a successful mission was modelled. Different launch vehicle configurations are compared using a parametric cost model and best alternative in terms of lifetime cost is selected to be used for the safety analysis of space launch center safety. Atmospheric parameters, variation of temperature and pressure with altitude and winds with their deviations are modelled. Drop points of launch vehicle fragments under different atmospheric conditions are analyzed. In addition, seasonal variations of safety distance requirements due to secondary effects such as temperature, pressure and toxic pollutants are calculated. Keywords: Launch vehicle, Launch center safety, Launch vehicle cost analysis, Synthetic wind profile, Safety distances v ÖZ ATMOSFER PARAMETRELERİNİN UYDU FIRLATMA MERKEZİ GÜVENLİĞİNE ETKİLERİNİN NUMERİK ANALİZLERİ Yaman, İbrahim Yüksek Lisans, Makina Mühendisliği Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. M. Haluk Aksel Ocak 2016, 147 sayfa Bu tez çalışmasında uydu fırlatma sistemi konfigürasyonu ve atmosfer parametrelerine bağlı olan uydu fırlatma merkezi güvenliği ele alınmıştır. Uydu fırlatma sistemi projelerinin ilk adımı olan kavramsal tasarımda yapılan kavram seçimi proje maliyetine ve fırlatma alanı güvenliğine doğrudan etki etmektedir. Atmosfer koşullarının modellenmesi fırlatma alanı açısından ayrıca önemlidir. Uydu fırlatma sistemlerinin görevlerini yerine getirebilmesi toplam hız ihtiyacının sistem tarafından sağlanabilmesine bağlıdır. Bu çalışmada görev için gereken uydu fırlatma sistemi performansı modellenmiştir. Fırlatma aracı alternatifleri parametrik bir maliyet modeli yardımı ile karşılaştırılmış ve toplam maliyet bakımından en iyi çözüm fırlatma merkezi güvenlik analizlerinde kullanılmak üzere seçilmiştir. Atmosfer parametreleri, sıcaklık ve basıncın yüksekliğe bağlı değişimi ve rüzgarlar ile bunların ortalama değerlerinden sapmaları modellenmiştir. Kaza durumları için fırlatma aracı parçalarının farklı atmosfer koşullarındaki düşme noktaları incelenmiştir. Ayrıca sıcaklık, basınç ve toksik kirleticer gibi ikincil etkilerin mevsimsel koşullara bağlı güvenlik mesafeleri hesaplanmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Fırlatma aracı, Fırlatma alanı güvenliği, Fırlatma aracı maliyeti, Sentetik rüzgar profili, Güvenlik mesafeleri vi To My Family vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my deepest gratitude and thanks to my thesis supervisor Prof. Dr. M. Haluk Aksel for his patience on me, invaluable guidance and encouragement throughout this study. I would also like to express sincere gratefulness to my colleagues in Roketsan A. Ş. who helped me through with their suggestions and valuable comments. Special thanks to my family that give me an insight look to any kind of problem and help me to gain a valuable self-confidence for my studies. Finally, I would like to thank my loved ones and friends, who have supported me throughout entire process and give me courage, both by keeping me cheerful and helping me going on. I will be grateful forever for your love and for the time spent together. Ankara, January 2016 İbrahim Yaman viii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................... v ÖZ ........................................................................................................................vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................ix LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................. xii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................ xiv LIST OF SYMBOLS .........................................................................................xvii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................. xx CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1 1.1. MOTIVATION .......................................................................................... 7 1.2. LITERATURE SURVEY ........................................................................... 9 1.3. SCOPE ..................................................................................................... 15 2. LAUNCH VEHICLE PERFORMANCE .......................................................... 17 2.1. CLASSIFICATION .................................................................................. 17 2.1.1. Reusable Launch Vehicles ................................................................. 17 2.1.2. Expandable Launch Vehicles ............................................................. 19 2.1.3. Recent Developments ........................................................................ 20 2.1.4. Future Projects ................................................................................... 23 2.2. LAUNCH VEHICLE PERFORMANCE .................................................. 24 2.2.1. Staging .............................................................................................. 27 2.2.2. Velocity Requirement ........................................................................ 29 2.2.3. Orbital Velocity ................................................................................. 30 2.2.4. Sun-Synchronous Orbits .................................................................... 35 2.2.5. Elliptic Orbits .................................................................................... 36 2.2.6. Rotational Gain .................................................................................. 36 ix 2.2.7. Gravity Losses ................................................................................... 38 2.2.8. Other Losses ...................................................................................... 39 2.2.9. Optimum Mass Distribution .............................................................. 42 3. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS................................................................... 47 3.1. US STANDARD ATMOSPHERE 1976 .................................................. 48 3.2. NRLMSISE-00 ........................................................................................ 49 3.3. GLOBAL GRIDDED UPPER AIR STATISTICS (GGUAS) ................... 51 3.4. NASA MONTHLY VECTOR WIND PROFILE MODEL ....................... 54 3.4.1. Coordinate Systems ........................................................................... 54 3.4.2. Statistical Model and Wind Profile Construction ............................... 55 4. SPACE LAUNCH CENTER SAFETY ............................................................ 61 4.1. LAUNCH VEHICLE FRAGMENTS ....................................................... 61 4.1.1. Ballistic Coefficient ............................................................................ 62 4.1.2. Imparted Velocity ............................................................................... 64 4.2. SECONDARY EFFECTS ......................................................................
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