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How Mature Are Your Lead Time Estimations? the Proposal of a Planning and Estimation Maturity Framework for the Maritime Industry

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How Mature Are Your Lead Time Estimations? the Proposal of a Planning and Estimation Maturity Framework for the Maritime Industry How mature are your lead time estimations? The proposal of a planning and estimation maturity framework for the maritime industry. by T.J.P Bregt to obtain the degree of Master of Science at the Delft University of Technology, to be defended publicly on Wednesday December 4, 2019 at 10:00 pm. Student number: 4106121 Report number: SDPO.19.029.M. Project duration: Feb 4, 2019 – December 4, 2019 Thesis committee: Dr. ir. J.F.JPruijn, TU Delft, supervisor Ing. N.J. Mallee, Royal van Lent Shipyards, supervisor Prof. ir. J.J Hopman, TU Delft Dr. V. Reppa, TU Delft An public electronic version of this thesis is available at http://repository.tudelft.nl/. Abstract During the start of a project, organisations make an estimation on the expected amount of work and the corresponding project duration, also known as the lead time. An organisation strives to make this lead time estimation with the lowest amount of uncertainty. Falsely estimating the lead time can result in project delay and cost overruns. Therefore, it is important to make these estimations with a low uncertainty, but how can an organisation make these lead time estimations? That is the main research question of this thesis. How to estimate ship production lead times with the lowest possible level of uncertainty. To answer this question, a maturity framework is proposed which gives organisations a way of establish- ing which lead time and man-hour estimations methods to use that fit their maturity. The frameworks are called the estimation pyramid and the planning pyramid. Both pyramids contain different maturity levels that correspond to the maturity of an organisation. For example, if the organisation is well established and has a lot of historical data, more estimation and planning methods are possible, in contrast to an organisation with little to no historical data. Performing a maturity level higher than the maturity of the organisation could lead to estimations with a higher uncertainty due to lacking data. Table1 presents the maturity levels of the two frameworks. The two frameworks are used together in this thesis, which means that the estimation pyra- mid will provide man-hour estimations from which the lead time is determined. The validity of the proposed Table 1: Maturity levels estimation and planning pyramid. level Estimation pyramid Method Planning pyramid Method 1 CGT CGT Analogical Expert 2 Analogical Expert Resource inclusion Lead time 3 Data driven Parametric Network phase Critical path 4 Rapid engineering Automated design Data driven Pert/Monte Carlo 5 Risk Event chain 6 Optimisation Smart routing frameworks is tested using Royal van Lent shipyards (RvLs) as case study. The maturity of RvLs is assessed to be level two for the estimation pyramid and a combination of level one, two and three for the planning pyramid. To test the assumption that a maturity level higher than the maturity of the organisation could lead to result with a high uncertainty, the preceding maturity level is included in the analysis. Levels 1, 2, and 3 are examined for both frameworks. The lead time of two reference vessels are estimated. These estimations are compared to the actual man hours and base-line lead times for those vessels. The results of the estimation pyramid, planning pyramid and their alignment will be discussed separately. The case study of estimation pyramid showed that level 1 CGT resulted overall in the highest uncertainty. Level 3 data driven does not perform better than level 2 analogy which is in line with the hypothesis that if an organisation’s data are not sufficient, the same or inferior results can be expected. The planning pyramid showed that the higher maturity levels resulted in a more realistic planning. To translate man-hours to lead time it was found that one craftsman per 8m22 of vessel floor space is a good starting point. The analysis also showed that the lead time does not need to increase with increased vessel size because more personnel can work simultaneously, assuming there are no other bottlenecks. The analysis on the combination of the frameworks gave the following observations. CGT man-hour es- timations can be seen as the method which gave the highest uncertainty. However, level 2 analogical did not perform better than level 3 data drive, this was because the estimated parameters differed. The man-hours estimation of analogical where better but due to the miss alignment. The lead time results are worse than level 3. With the above presented analysis the answer to the research question is: Estimating lead times with the lowest possible level of uncertainty is achieved by selecting the correct estimation method corresponding to the maturity of the organisation, and by aligning the estimation pyramid and planning pyramid based on maturity and estimation parameters. iii Preface Before you lies the thesis "How mature are your lead time estimations?" where I investigated different plan- ning and man-hour estimation methods and their relations to the capabilities of an organisation. This thesis is written to obtain the degree Master of Science at the Delft University of Technology. This research was performed at Royal van Lent Shipyards, a world renown Dutch super yacht manufactured. This research was performed under the supervision of Dr. Ir. Jeroen Pruyn of the TU Delft and Nick Mallee at Royal van Lent Shipyards. This thesis started out as an investigation what effect a super yachts of 140+ meters would be on your production times and how this would affect the critical path. Royal van Lent shipyard had just finished their new dry dock that can accommodate super yachts up to 160 meters. During my research into estimation methods it became apparent that their is actually not a guideline for the maritime industry how to make such estimations. Estimations can be done in a lot of different ways, but what is the best method for an organisation? Is the experts opinion just fine or do you need a computer simulation. During that stage I changed the scope of this thesis to the proposal of a planning and man-hour estimation maturity model for the maritime industry. Because this would be the first time such a model was implemented at RvLs, the investigation into larger yachts was left out of this thesis. First, the model needed to be tested on an inbound estimation on the validity. With this maturity framework I think it could give maritime organisation a guidance how to improve their lead time estimations. So next time someone wants to know how to make the best lead time estimation, they can lookup this thesis and see what methods are the best for his or her organisation. During my research I gained a lot of insight into estimation and planning methods. What I found inter- esting was that when you look at these methods first glance you think it is straight forward. But in reality it is not as easy as it seems, an a simple "How long thus that take" can result in long discussion about the wide range of possibilities. I would like thank J.Pruyn for his support and insights which improved this thesis every time. From RvLs it would like to thank Nick Mallee as my supervisor, he really helped me in understanding the company and their practises. Besides Nick I would like to thank all the other RvLs employees for letting me see all the aspects and Joey Koeckhoven for showing me a day the live of a craftsman. Lastly, I would like to thank my girlfriend, family and friends for their support feedback and advised during these months. Hopefully you will gain some insights from this thesis and the next time you need to make an estimation or a planning you will think back at this thesis and think how certainty methods can be used to make it even better. I hope you enjoy your reading. T.J.P Bregt Delft, September 2019 v Definitions This page gives a overview of specific definitions and abbreviations used in this thesis. Definitions Maturity The quality and professionality of the people, processes, technology and data available at the or- ganisation. Framework Structure or system to realise a specific goal, a framework might contain multiple models to reach that goal. Lead time The time between initiation and completion of a task, Man-hour Time indication of the amount of work for one person in one hour. Super structure Mostly the top half, on top of the hull, of a super yacht.often constructed from aluminium in the case of super yachts. Vessel component Part or combinations of part of a super yacht, e.g. casco or all the electrical systems. In this thesis the hours to build this component or components is used. Outbound An outbound estimation is an estimation with specification not within the data set,e.g an extrap- olation. Inbound An inbound estimation is an estimation with specification within the data set, e.g an interpolations. Uncertainty Uncertainty is defined as an error range of the estimation. However, in this thesis the term uncertainty is also used to indicate the found error during the case study. This is done to keep the terminology consistent because in reality a fixed error for an estimation is not expected but a possible range. Abbreviations RvLs Royal van Lent shipyards CGT Compensated gross tonnage CER Cost estimation relationships LOA Length overall TLT Total lead time LT Lead time vii List of Figures 1.1 Increase of gross tonnage (GT) for a higher Length overall (LOA)....................5 2.1 Diagram showing the structure of the literature study.......................... 10 2.2 Graphical representation of a random regression line.........................
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