SYNTHESIS SUMMARY 3 Cyclones and windstorms

Cyclones and windstorms affect every year, causing millions of dollars in damage. In future, the storm surge is likely to be an increasing hazard in coastal areas as sea levels rise. Cyclones may become less frequent, but those that do occur are expected to be more intense & may track further south. Adaptation can build on existing responses to prepare for future impacts of storms.

About this summary

About this series This summary deals with cyclones and windstorms. The Between 2008 and 2013, opening pages provide the context, including the nature and the Australian Government impacts of cyclones and windstorms (‘Why we need to adapt’), funded a large nationwide followed by a synthesis of research findings around the impacts Adaptation Research Grant and adaptation response to cyclones and windstorms (‘The Program (the ARG Program) research base …’). It concludes with a summary of how this new in climate change adaptation. The Program was managed research knowledge might help address key adaptation policy by the National Climate challenges. This final section is informed by a workshop held Change Adaptation Research with practitioners (‘Evidence-based policy implications’). Facility (NCCARF). It resulted in over 100 research This brief was developed by NCCARF staff, with input on the reports that delivered new knowledge on every aspect policy challenges developed in workshops held in Mackay of adaptation. The aim (), (South Australia) and Cardinia Shire of the Program was to help (Victoria) in December 2015. The workshops were attended by build a nation more practitioners, policymakers and managers from within local, resilient to the effects of state and federal government organisations, community service climate change and better placed to take advantage of organisations, not-for-profit organisations and universities. the opportunities.

This series of Synthesis The key research reports used to develop this summary are Summaries is based on highlighted in Section 4. To see all reports from the ARG research findings from the Program, please visit www.nccarf.edu.au/adaptation-library. Program, augmented by relevant new literature and evidence from practitioners. The series seeks to deliver some of the policy-relevant research evidence to support decision-making for climate change adaptation in Australia in a short summary. It takes an approach identified through consultation with relevant stakeholders about needs of the intended audience 2 of policymakers, decision- makers and managers in the public and private sectors.

About this summary Key findings

Five principal adaptation challenges emerge from the research evidence:

1. Sustain and improve the risk message: Cyclones are a well-understood phenomena in the tropical north of Australia, and historical experience has led to the evolution of well-adapted building designs and effective messaging. These might be built upon and extended to increase reach and response within the community to deal with infrequent and more severe storms.

2. Match policy, advice and resourcing: Well-designed policies aimed at building resilience and ‘build back better’ can be lost in the emergency response to recover and restore the status quo as quickly as possible. Ensuring that plans are in place for upgrading before a major event, with funding identified, is likely to help overcome this challenge.

3. Understand building stock risk: The greatest weather-related risk to existing building stock is likely to be from windstorm. Governments and homeowners may need to consider if there is value in investing or encouraging investment in building assessment and retrofitting to increase resilience.

4. Build resilience to the emerging threat of storm surge: Climate change is causing sea levels to rise, and the rates of rise are expected to increase in the future. Together with storm surge, higher sea levels pose an increased risk of coastal flooding and erosion. Choices will need to be made along the Australian coastline by communities and government as to whether to protect, accommodate or retreat from these risks.

5. Prepare for infrequent severe windstorms in non-cyclone-prone areas: In southern Australia, windstorms, including East Coast Lows, are unpredictable and infrequent but highly damaging events, and, in future, cyclones may track further south. In areas infrequently affected, community preparedness (as opposed to more costly up-front approaches, such as changes to building regulations) is likely to be the most important adaptation measure.

3 1. Why we need to adapt

1.1 The climate context Tropical cyclones are low pressure systems that develop over warm ocean waters (> 26.5 °C) and can generate gale force in the wall around the centre of the storm. Their severity is described in terms of categories ranging from 1 (weakest) to 5 (strongest), related to the maximum mean speed (Table 1). The impact of a cyclone is also related to factors such as the size of the cyclone (particularly the eye), the speed at which it is travelling, the location of landfall (relative to location of urban centres) and the coincidence (or not) with high tide. Tropical cyclones affect northern Figure 1 The average number of cyclones in areas around Australia’s north. Source: Bureau of . Australia, with areas north from Exmouth in the west and north from Maryborough in the east the most cyclone-prone. The cyclone season runs from November to April. Over the period 1982–2013, Australia experienced 11 tropical cyclones on average each year.5 However, this number is expected to change as a result of climate change. Projections for the future suggest decreases in the frequency of tropical cyclones for Figure 2 Cyclone Pam bears down on the Pacific, and nearby Cyclone Nathan the region by 2100.20 However, the intensifies off north-eastern Australia. Cyclone Olwyn can be seen off the coast of 25 intensity of those cyclones that do Western Australia, March 2015. occur is expected to increase11, with some possibility they will track The eastern coast of Australia occur any time of the year, being 3 further south. is also affected by East Coast more common between May Variations in the El Niño–Southern Lows (ECLs), particularly southern and August. Queensland, New South Wales Oscillation (ENSO) strongly ECLs develop rapidly off the and eastern Victoria. ECLs are influence Australian eastern coast, with also atmospheric low pressure occurrence, due to changes the ability to intensify overnight, systems that can generate in wind patterns and water making them very difficult to strong winds, heavy rainfall and temperatures. Fewer tropical predict. Recent research suggests prolonged rough seas. However, cyclones cross the coast during that their frequency may decrease ECLs have much shorter lifespans El Niño years and more during La over the coming century.6 4 Niña years. than tropical cyclones and can Table 1: Tropical cyclone severity categories. Source: .

Sustained winds Strongest gust Examples of Category Typical effects (km/h) (km/h) cyclones 1 Tropical Cyclone 63–88 Below 125 Damaging winds Alessia (2013) 2 Tropical Cyclone 89–117 125–164 Destructive winds Nathan (2015) 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone 118 –159 165–224 Very destructive winds Justin (1997) Tracy (1974), Larry 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone 160–199 225–279 Very destructive winds (2006) Yasi (2011), Pam 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Over 200 Over 280 Very destructive winds (2015)

1.2 Key risks A great deal was learned about preparing for cyclones following the landfall of category 4 Cyclone Tracy at Darwin in 1974. The storm left 94% of housing uninhabitable and approximately 40 000 people homeless. Seventy-one people died, and a further 650 were hospitalised or injured. In economic terms, Figure 3 A series of five East Coast Lows affected the NSW coast round Cyclone Tracy was one of the Newcastle in 2007. During the storm, the coal carrier Pasha Bulker became costliest natural disasters in grounded on Nobby’s Beach. Photo: © Philip J. Rosenberger III. Australia’s history, with estimates of losses ranging from $2 billion to $4 billion (in present day values). In almost all cases, wind was the principal cause of structural damage. Insurance losses due to cyclones in northern Australia over the last 20 years amount to an average of $115 million a year.19 Tropical cyclones are dangerous because they produce destructive winds, heavy rainfall with flooding and damaging storm tides (Figure 4) that can inundate low-lying coastal areas. In the case of Cyclone Tracy, the damage and loss of life could Figure 4 A ‘storm tide’ occurs when a storm coincides with a high tide. Factors have been worse if landfall had influencing the height of the storm tide are a high astronomical tide, storm coincided with high tide. surge, wave run-up and sea level. Sea level rise will increase the overall height of storm tides. MWL = Mean water level, SWL = Stillwater level, HAT = Highest astronomical tide, AHD = Australian Height Datum. Source: After Harper.9 5 Infrastructure People Ecosystems Infrastructure damage can result Deaths can occur during The adverse effects of tropical from the impact of wind itself, or cyclones and windstorms, cyclones on coral reef ecosystems through objects the wind propels. and in the past these numbers are well documented. As much The longer a given structure is have been very high (e.g. 300 as 34% of the coral mortality exposed to strong winds, the more people died in Bathurst Bay, recorded between 1995 and 2009 likely it is to fail. Exposure, local Queensland, during Cyclone in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) topography and upwind shielding Mahina in 1899). Nowadays, the has been attributed to severe (e.g. surrounding vegetation and number of deaths associated storms.13 (2011) was buildings) can all affect the wind with tropical cyclones has responsible for one of the greatest load on individual buildings.12 drastically decreased, but losses of coral cover in recent psychological damage and years, damaging almost 15% of Loss of roof cladding is common indirect consequences (e.g. loss the entire GBR Marine Park.1 and can result from either the of public health infrastructure, fatigue failure of cladding around Rainforest ecosystems are also equipment and services for fasteners or a sudden increase affected by tropical cyclones. patients affected by chronic in internal pressure when a Although intact forests seem illness) remain an issue.14 windward wall is pierced by flying to cope very well with cyclonic debris.12 Loss of the roof allows disturbance, others – such as ingress of rainwater, leading to forest remnants, littoral rainforests further damage of house contents. and riparian vegetation – show In many windstorms, the major signs of greater susceptibility and damage is from rainwater rather post-disturbance weed invasion.21 than from wind. Other damage includes the loss of wall cladding, windows and doors.12

6 2. The research base informing adaptation to cyclones and windstorms

Australian communities have wind-resistant design practice doors) for homes of all ages significantly improved their in Australia is a clear example of and an increased emphasis on responses to tropical cyclones, successful adaptation.12 regular building maintenance. In Florida, a government initiative and there is evidence of An analysis of insurance claims called ‘My Safe Florida’ provided successful adaptation. As a following cylones Yasi and Larry free wind inspection reports that result, the average cost of showed that the majority of gave advice to homeowners damage caused per tropical damage was to roofs or windows on how to protect themselves cyclone has dramatically or via water ingress.16 It also and their homes against decreased from $43 million in identified the buildings most windstorm damage, as well as an the 1970s to about $11 million vulnerable to major damage as 16 assessment of what they could in the 2000s. There were no those built between 1925 and save on insurance premiums if deaths from Cyclone Yasi, even 1981 – confirming the positive they undertook the recommended though it was a category 5 outcome of new building codes. actions. A grant program to help severe tropical cyclone when it However, the report did point 2 residents make the recommended crossed on to land. out that a significant number improvements accompanied of contemporary houses the program.7 2.1 Building, infrastructure experienced major damage, and urban design and suggested that modern 2.2 Behaviour and health In areas that are likely to be housing may not be performing The way people prepare for and affected by windstorms and as expected under the National behave during and after severe 16 tropical cyclones, buildings Construction Code. storms, particularly cyclones, designed and constructed to Regular review of building codes can affect their recovery – even withstand extreme windspeeds (including thresholds such as survival. It is crucial to follow the are crucial to minimising injury, design wind speeds) and land use advice of emergency service deaths and destruction of zoning in cyclone-prone regions to providers, including when making infrastructure.12 ensure they reflect new or evolving decisions such as whether to stay at home, attend public shelters or In 1974, the devastating impacts climate hazards and risks, and evacuate the area. of Cyclone Tracy highlighted using the most current information the problem with designing and techniques, will minimise the buildings based on the everyday risk of failure under extreme wind performance of a structure, conditions. The current Building rather than to withstand extreme Code of Australia does not specify events. Differences were also the material durability of structural found between the performance elements, leading to concerns of low-set houses and their high- about decay and corrosion and set counterparts and between performance over time under engineered (e.g. commercial extreme wind loads. A lifetime buildings) and non-engineered inspection and maintenance structures (e.g. housing). As program for buildings in cyclone- a result of these differences, prone regions could help address 12 engineering-based standards this issue. now apply to the design of all Further building resilience could housing at the national level. If a be achieved through retrofit cyclone such as Tracy occurred measures, including structural roof today, structural damage would upgrades for homes constructed be reduced by up to 85%.12 before 1980, upgrades to opening Development of world-leading, protections (e.g. windows and 7 The need for evacuation is much management response strategies The battery-powered radio reduced with good building codes, specifically targeting Indigenous remains the most useful at least for those outside a likely Australians and culturally and information source during inundation area.10 However, when linguistically diverse communities windstorms and cyclones. Power evacuation is required, it means may need to be tested.8 outages greatly limit access being separated from community to television and web-based members, sometimes from 2.4 Finding the right emergency services and can family support, and can delay pathways to communicate affect mobile phone services the physical and mental recovery Early cyclone warnings too. It is important that as much processes. The adverse effects are extremely important in locally specific information and of evacuation (e.g. depression, minimising damage and risks advice as possible be included weight gain, lack of energy) are to lives. Surveys of residents in announcements, otherwise worse than the psychological affected by Cyclone Yasi showed residents assume that warnings effects on those who remain in an that most did take cyclone do not apply to their suburbs.24 impact area. Participating in the warnings seriously, especially if Providing the most accurate clean-up and restoration efforts they had previously experienced information is essential, as false 23 gives people who stay a sense of a disaster. Nevertheless, some alarms can appear to be cries of empowerment and being part residents started preparing ‘Wolf!’, which hinder preparation of a community. The social late for the cyclone, although no before a storm or cyclone.12 networks they establish can adverse consequences contribute to both individual and were reported. 2.5 Strategies for service providers community resilience.10 Communications can be (assistance, emergency interrupted for days after a 2.3 Vulnerable regions management, insurance) windstorm event or a cyclone. and individuals The impacts of Cyclone Tracy This was the case with the Pasha The extent of damage from highlight the importance of Bulker storm, which was in fact a windstorm depends in part on emergency management that series of five ECLs that affected a region’s vulnerability, which restores infrastructure and the coast of Newcastle during in turn depends in part on provides for people’s physical June 2007. The importance factors such as population size, needs but that also retains of establishing a standard transport links, education levels community cohesion and procedure for communication was and income, as well as the more resilience in the longer term. acknowledged in the review of obvious topographic and building The federal Natural Disasters the event, particularly to provide durability factors. People who Organisation, created just emergency information during the have never experienced a disaster months before Cyclone Tracy disaster. Formal arrangements before are less knowledgeable struck, was effective in its work were made after the storm with and therefore more vulnerable.23 with respect to the former, local ABC Radio to provide Indigenous people consider but less so with respect emergency information in case of themselves better able to cope to the latter. future disasters.24 and recover from tropical cyclones than non-Indigenous residents because they do not greatly rely on material possessions and, in general, could be more self-sufficient.10 Nevertheless, itinerant individuals may remain vulnerable due to a lack of shelter and connection to communities. 8 Culturally appropriate emergency Much has been learned from showed that residents lacked The experience of the Pasha this incident about structuring an emergency equipment (e.g. Bulker storm highlighted the need emergency response organisation. battery-operated radios, batteries to have a list of pre-identified The peak body Emergency and emergency contact lists) facilities that could act as disaster Management Australia provides and hence access to news recovery centres (DRCs) after an resources, finances, training updates, warning information and emergency event.24 DRCs are very and research for emergency a means of communication during important as they provide services management, but it does not the disaster. 24 that include financial assistance, respond directly to emergencies. outreach services, temporary Other preparations include Direct response lies with individual accommodation and insurance cleaning up property and having states and territories, each with information to affected residents. debris collected before a disaster its own structure and frameworks DRCs must meet specific criteria, to reduce wind-borne missiles for coordination. such as having good parking and therefore property damage. options and large enough rooms Analysis of insurance claims Preparedness and being in an accessible lodged with Suncorp Insurance Emergencies call for a shared location (e.g. not at risk of being following Cyclone Yasi showed responsibility between emergency cut off by flooding). services and residents. It is that 29% of claims could have essential that efforts focus been prevented by adequate on increasing communities’ preparation (e.g. securing outdoor and individuals’ resilience and furniture, sheds, shade sails, 16 preparedness. For example, etc.). Investment in community although residents are advised to awareness to promote this maintain stocks of basic supplies, preparedness has been estimated water and non-perishable food to give an average return of $10 for 22 for at least three days after a every dollar spent. windstorm or cyclone, surveys following the Pasha Bulker storm

Table 2 Benefit–cost ratios estimated by Queensland insurer Suncorp for adaptation measures to improve the resilience of houses in North Queensland (referred to as ‘mitigation’ in the strategy).

Adaptation option Estimated cost Total benefit per Benefit-cost Payback period‡ per household household † ratios

Community awareness campaign* $55–$136 $440–$820 3.2–14.8 <1–6 years

Opening protection – self-installed $1660 $1990–$6400 1.2–3.9 4–21 years (low cost scenario)

Roofing option – strapping only (low $3000 $12 900–$38 800 4.3–12.9 2–4 years cost scenario)

Roofing option – over-batten system $12 000 $13 500–$39 400 1.1– 3.3 5–37 years (medium cost scenario)

*Government funded campaign, applied per household. † Net Present Value over 50 years. ‡ Payback period refers to the number of years required for the value of benefit to outweigh the cost of adaptation options applied across all parties. Source: Modified from Build to Last. A Protecting the North initiative.17 9 Response and recovery A role for insurance providers Suncorp Insurance, a Queensland Some post-cyclone emergency Insurance claims from cyclones insurance company, has proposed services seem to be more are an increasing cost to a public–private partnership valued by residents than others. insurance companies.19 This can (‘Protecting the North’) that aims to For example, faster resupply of drive up insurance premiums build resilience in cyclone-exposed fresh food and re-connection of and be a barrier to consumers properties in North Queensland to utilities were the two most valued seeking to insure their properties. reduce claims. It has developed a services identified by residents The Australian Treasury has cost–benefit analysis to support affected by Cyclone Yasi, and recently examined rising investment by Suncorp (through there is evidence that they are insurance costs in northern supporting privately funded willing to pay more for these Australia as a result of cyclone retrofits), by government (improved services.4 Hospitals, aged care damages in recent years. community awareness, incentives and health care facilities are a They note that reducing the risk of for retrofits through building priority when re-establishing damage is the only way to reduce and planning approvals) and by services post-disaster. Debris insurance costs and outline a individuals (self-investment in clean-up is also essential, as number of options to encourage improved resilience).17 Suncorp it causes road blockages that investment in adaptation and has also introduced discounts on prevent access to the most resilience options, including premiums for property owners in vulnerable people and can strengthening building cyclone-prone areas who invest obstruct storm water systems, standards, improving retrofits, in strengthening homes against worsening flooding.24 public works, increased sharing cyclone damage.18 of risk with householders and Locally provided assistance making insurance premiums enables families and communities more responsive to to stay together.12 However, taking increased resilience.19 this approach means that an influx of specialists and/or volunteers from other areas can be expected. Further research into coordinating this influx is required, as it may cause additional problems for people providing emergency services.4 For example, extra personnel will put further pressure on services that might be scarce after a storm, such as accommodation.

10 3. Evidence-based policy implications

ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 1: People who have past experience ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 2: Sustain and improve the of an event have improved Match policy, advice risk message resilience and response.23 For and resourcing Cyclones are a well-understood those without past experience, Well-designed policies aimed phenomena in the tropical case studies and other people’s at building resilience and ‘build north of Australia, and historical personal accounts can be a back better’ can be lost in experience has led to the useful surrogate. the emergency response to evolution of well-adapted Understanding why residents recover and restore the status building designs and effective do not respond to warnings quo as quickly as possible. messaging. These might be and information may help Ensuring that plans are in built upon and extended to when designing improved place for upgrading before increase reach and response communication products. For a major event, with funding within the community to deal example, are there language identified, should help with infrequent and more or cultural barriers that prevent overcome this challenge. severe storms. response? These could be In the face of a natural disaster, While existing seasonal public addressed by circulating there are immediate pressures information programs in cyclone- culturally sensitive information on government to be seen to be prone areas are well established, products in appropriate languages providing funding and support. climate change may mean new or in a format for those with This can mean that emergency information is needed to deal vision impairment. responses (e.g. emergency with more intense storms, and Research shows that regardless of payments for immediate repairs that these programs need to information and communication, and lodging) act to restore encompass new locations. people may still behave in the status quo rather than contributing to ‘build back better’ Targeted messaging can be ways that may affect whole- adaptation programs. used to reach community of-community wellbeing and members with no or less personal safety in emergency situations.24 experience to draw upon. This For example, people still bring might include strategies such as a their pets to cyclone shelters, welcome pack for new residents despite notification that most distributed through real estate emergency shelters do not allow agents or through workplaces. them. Understanding why people Education programs for school behave as they do is essential to children may filter up information designing a response. It seems to parents as well as build a likely that people bring their pets resilient younger generation. because they have nowhere else to take them. In that case, should shelters be able to accommodate pets?

11 While many essential services ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 3: If the decision is made not to can (and must) be restored Understand building impose requirements to upgrade within days or weeks, rebuilding stock risk on existing houses, there are still property or non-essential The greatest weather-related ways to reduce their vulnerability. infrastructure may take months risk to existing building stock Low interest loans that only fall to years. To rebuild and maintain is likely to be from windstorm. due once the property is sold community coherence and Governments and homeowners could be offered for upgrades resilience, provision of support may need to consider if there is (e.g. structural upgrades to value in investing or encouraging through the rebuilding phase roofs, windows and doors). investment in building is needed. These storm- Older housing stock could be assessment and retrofitting to affected communities need increase resilience. mapped and risk-assessed to ongoing access to resourcing, target evacuation warnings. The communication and support The recent Treasury taskforce community could be engaged to during this period, as well as on Northern Australia Insurance improve residents’ understanding mechanisms for ensuring the Premiums19 considered the of and responsibility for their risk. recovery process incorporates merits of developing collaborative With the potential for increased adaptation principles. For research partnerships to cyclone intensity, design testing, example, if a house is destroyed investigate and implement material testing and analysis are by cyclone and storm tide low cost actions to reduce likely to be ongoing. This might inundation, a replacement cyclone damage, such as roof potentially include inspection building should withstand strengthening and preventing and maintenance programs for cyclonic windspeeds and have water ingress, with one aim buildings in cyclone-prone regions. the floor raised above projected being to reduce insurance An increased emphasis on flood levels. premiums without the need for government intervention. building maintenance is likely Cyclones have a large financial to improve the resilience of cost to individuals, governments Newer buildings are built to building stock. and insurers, and all three may standards that can better be challenged to meet these withstand cyclonic windspeeds, costs and at the same time to but older houses remain at risk adapt, or ‘build back better’. The from wind damage. For these business case for investment older buildings, there needs to be by all parties to improve the a balance between the cost of resilience of housing needs to meeting more stringent building be explored. Public–private codes, the financial resources of partnerships are one means the homeowner and the market of encouraging investment in value of the property. adaptation with the potential to offer benefits to all partners (e.g. the case of Suncorp Insurance described in Section 2.5).

12 ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 4: ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 5: Unintended negative Build resilience to Preparing for infrequent consequences of adaptation the emerging threat of severe windstorms in in may occur without due care. For storm surge non-cyclone-prone areas example, policies of tree planting Climate change is causing sea In southern Australia, windstorms, can change after severe storms in levels to rise, and the rates of including ECLs, are unpredictable an effort to reduce future damage, rise are expected to increase in and infrequent but highly but trees may be an important the future. Together with storm damaging events, and, in future, measure for cooling cities. surge, higher sea levels pose an cyclones may track further south. increased risk of coastal flooding In areas infrequently affected, and erosion. Choices will need community preparedness (as to be made along the Australian opposed to more costly up-front coastline by communities and approaches, such as changes government as to whether to to building regulations) is likely protect, accommodate or retreat to be the most important from these risks. adaptation measure. With increasing sea levels, more If cyclones track further south coastal properties will be at risk as a result of climate change, of storm tide inundation during developing warning and advisory cyclones and storms. In some programs for residents in areas cases, essential infrastructure (e.g. that may be newly affected is likely sewerage infrastructure, hospitals) to become more important. will be exposed to increased risk. Flood mapping will help identify In areas experiencing infrequent, areas at risk, and an assessment high intensity windstorms, can help determine the need residents may have little or no and business case to relocate experience of severe storms. the facilities. In these areas an ‘all hazards’ emergency approach (i.e. standard When planning new developments emergency response strategies in cyclone-prone areas, future that can be followed in a range impacts – including stronger winds of emergency situations) might and greater risk of inundation – help in the immediate response. can usefully be considered at the Preparedness, however, tends to stage of development approvals be specific to particular types of and more widely in planning policy. disasters (e.g. flood preparedness Provisions might include revisions differs from preparations for to the height of floor levels or use bushfire and extreme heat), and of designs that accommodate planning is likely to consider if through-flow of floodwater. It there is a cost benefit to investing may also mean that some areas, in adaptation measures (e.g. new such as low-lying coastal areas, or retrofit building design). For should not be used for residential communities where there is only a purposes, or indeed for any small probability of high intensity development that brings together windstorms occurring, the extra groups of vulnerable people (e.g. expense of building housing to aged-care facilities, hospitals meet higher windspeeds is unlikely or schools). to be justified. 13 4. Key information and references

NCCARF-supported research is marked with an asterisk*

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14 18. Suncorp (undated) Cyclone 23. Usher K. (2013) Resilience Benefit, http:// Preparedness for and impact www.suncorp.com.au/ of tropical Cyclone Yasi in insurance/safety/cyclone- North Queensland, Australia. resilience-faqs. Prehospital and Disaster 19. The Treasury, Australian Medicine 28, 272-278. Government (2015) Northern 24. Verdon-Kidd D.C. (2010) Australia Insurance Premiums East Coast Lows and the Taskforce – Final Report Newcastle/Central Coast (Commonwealth of Pasha Bulker Storm (National Australia, Canberra). Climate Change Adaptation 20. Tory K. (2013) Projected Research Facility, changes in late-twenty-first- Gold Coast).* century tropical cyclone 25. Windyty (2016) Windyty, wind frequency in 13 coupled map & forecast, https://www. climate models from phase windyty.com (accessed 19 5 of the Coupled Model August 2016). Intercomparison Project. Journal of Climate 26, 9946-9959. 21. Turton S.M. (2012) Securing landscape resilience to tropical cyclones in Australia’s Wet Tropics under a changing climate: lessons from Cyclones Larry (and Yasi). Geographical Research 50, 15-30. 22. Urbis Pty Ltd (2015) Protecting the North: The benefits of cyclone mitigation (Urbis Pty Ltd, Australia). http://www.suncorp.com. au/insurance/sites/default/ files/fm/campaigns/protect- the-north/pdfs/urbis- cyclone-mitigation-report.pdf (accessed 4 August 2016).

15 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility Telephone +61 7 5552 9333 Email [email protected] www.nccarf.edu.au