The Syrian Paradox
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Reimagining US Strategy in the Middle East
REIMAGININGR I A I I G U.S.S STRATEGYT A E Y IIN THET E MMIDDLED L EEASTS Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments Dalia Dassa Kaye, Linda Robinson, Jeffrey Martini, Nathan Vest, Ashley L. Rhoades C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA958-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0662-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover composite design: Jessica Arana Image: wael alreweie / Getty Images Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface U.S. -
State of the //ART// of the State
State of the //ART// of the State A Political Economy of Assisted Reproduction in Palestine/Israel Sigrid Vertommen Dissertation submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Political and Social Sciences, option Political Sciences. Middle East and North Africa Research Group - Department of Conflict and Development Studies, Ghent University March 2017 Supervisor: Prof. dr. Sami Zemni Cover design by Aïlien Reyns TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................ v Samenvatting ..................................................................................................................................................................... vi List of Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................................................... xi Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 State of the ART ............................................................................................................................................................ -
Iran: Current Developments and U.S. Policy
Order Code IB93033 Issue Brief for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iran: Current Developments and U.S. Policy Updated March 13, 2003 Kenneth Katzman Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress CONTENTS SUMMARY MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS Iran’s Strategic Buildup Conventional Weapons Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Chemical and Biological Weapons Missiles Nuclear Program Iranian Foreign Policy and Involvement in Terrorism Persian Gulf Saudi Arabia/Khobar Towers Gulf Islands Dispute With UAE Iraq Middle East/North Africa Lebanon/Hizballah Sudan Central and South Asia/Azerbaijan/Former Yugoslavia Al Qaeda/Afghanistan/Pakistan Former Yugoslavia Human Rights Concerns Religious Persecution Trial of 13 Jews U.S. Policy and Sanctions Economic Sanctions Terrorism/Foreign Aid Proliferation Sanctions Counternarcotics Trade Ban The Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) Caspian/Central Asian Energy Routes Through Iran Europe and Japan’s Relations With/Lending to Iran Multilateral Lending to Iran WTO Travel Sanctions Assets Disputes/Victims of Terrorism Military Containment Iran’s Opposition Movements IB93033 03-13-03 Iran: Current Developments and U.S. Policy SUMMARY Even before Iran’s tacit cooperation with Palestinian violence against Israel since Sep- post-September 11 U.S. efforts to defeat tember 2000. Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, signs of mod- eration in Iran had stimulated the United Iran’s human rights practices, particularly States to try to engage Iran in official talks. its treatment of the Baha’i and the Jewish Iran, still split between conservatives and communities, are also a major concern. The reformers loyal to President Mohammad Bush Administration has identified Iran’s Khatemi did not accept. -
Defending Damascus, Betraying Beirut: Hezbollah's Communication
Defending Damascus, Betraying Beirut: Hezbollah’s Communication Strategies in the Syrian Civil War Research Thesis Presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for graduation with research distinction in International Studies in the undergraduate colleges of The Ohio State University by Maxwell Scurlock The Ohio State University April 2017 Project Advisor: Professor Jeffrey Lewis, International Studies Table of Contents Part 1 – Background Information and Historical Context Introduction – 1 1. Historical and Contextual Background – 6 a. Shi‘ism in Historical Context – 9 b. French Mandatory Period, 1920-1945 – 10 c. Independence to Black September, 1945-1970 – 14 d. The Early Years of the Lebanese Civil War and the Emergence of Hezbollah, 1970-1982 – 17 e. Hezbollah’s Formation – 21 f. Hezbollah’s Early Ideological Framework – 23 g. Syrian and Israeli Occupations of Lebanon, 1982-2005 – 24 h. Political Turmoil, 2006 Lebanon War, and 2008 Lebanese Political Crisis – 29 i. Hezbollah’s 2009 Manifesto – 31 j. The Syrian Civil War – 32 k. Sunni Islamists in Lebanon and Syria – 34 l. Lebanese Christians – 37 Part 2 – Analysis of Hezbollah’s Communications 2. Theoretical Approach to Hezbollah’s Communications – 40 3. Hezbollah in Syria – 44 a. Hezbollah’s Participation in Syria – April 30th, 2013 – 44 b. The Campaign for al-Qusayr, Part One – May 9th, 2013 – 48 c. The Campaign for al-Qusayr, Part Two – May 25th, 2013 – 50 4. Hezbollah’s Responses to Terrorism – 54 a. An Attack in al-Dahieh – August 16th, 2013 – 54 b. The Bombing of Iran’s Embassy – November 19th, 2013 – 56 5. Further Crises – 62 a. The Assassination of Hezbollah Commander Hassan al-Laqqis – December 3rd, 2013 – 62 b. -
Iran: Current Developments and US Policy
Order Code IB93033 Issue Brief for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iran: Current Developments and U.S. Policy Updated April 25, 2003 Kenneth Katzman Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress CONTENTS SUMMARY MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS Iran’s Strategic Buildup Conventional Weapons Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Nuclear Program Chemical and Biological Weapons Missiles Iranian Foreign Policy and Involvement in Terrorism Persian Gulf Saudi Arabia/Khobar Towers Gulf Islands Dispute With UAE Iraq Middle East/North Africa Lebanon/Hizballah Sudan Central and South Asia/Azerbaijan/Former Yugoslavia Al Qaeda/Afghanistan/Pakistan Former Yugoslavia Human Rights Concerns Religious Persecution Trial of 13 Jews U.S. Policy and Sanctions Economic Sanctions Terrorism/Foreign Aid Proliferation Sanctions Counternarcotics Trade Ban The Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) Caspian/Central Asian Energy Routes Through Iran Europe and Japan’s Relations With/Lending to Iran Multilateral Lending to Iran WTO Travel Sanctions Assets Disputes/Victims of Terrorism Military Containment Iran’s Opposition Movements IB93033 04-25-03 Iran: Current Developments and U.S. Policy SUMMARY During the late 1990s, signs of modera- Iran has opposed the U.S.-led Middle tion in Iran had stimulated the United States to East peace process since its inception in Octo- try to engage Iran in broad, official talks. Iran, ber 1991. It continues to provide material still split between conservatives and reformers support to Hizballah in Lebanon and to Pales- loyal to President Mohammad Khatemi, re- tinian groups that oppose the Arab-Israeli mains distrustful of the United States and has peace process, such as Hamas and Palestinian not accepted. -
The Syrian Civil War Student Text
The Syrian Civil War Student Text PREVIEW Not for Distribution Copyright and Permissions This document is licensed for single-teacher use. The purchase of this curriculum unit includes permission to make copies of the Student Text and appropriate student handouts from the Teacher Resource Book for use in your own classroom. Duplication of this document for the purpose of resale or other distribution is prohibited. Permission is not granted to post this document for use online. Our Digital Editions are designed for this purpose. See www.choices.edu/digital for information and pricing. The Choices Program curriculum units are protected by copyright. If you would like to use material from a Choices unit in your own work, please contact us for permission. PREVIEWDistribution for Not Faculty Advisors Faculty at Brown University provided advice and carefully reviewed this curriculum. We wish to thank the following scholars for their invaluable input to this curriculum: Faiz Ahmed Meltem Toksöz Associate Professor of History, Department of History, Visiting Associate Professor, Middle East Studies and Brown University Department of History, Brown University Contributors The curriculum developers at the Choices Program write, edit, and produce Choices curricula. We would also like to thank the following people for their essential contributions to this curriculum: Noam Bizan Joseph Leidy Research and Editing Assistant Content Advisor Talia Brenner Gustaf Michaelsen Lead Author Cartographer Julia Gettle Aidan Wang Content Advisor Curriculum Assistant Front cover graphic includes images by Craig Jenkins (CC BY 2.0), Georgios Giannopoulos (Ggia) (CC BY-SA 4.0), and George Westmoreland. © Imperial WarPREVIEW Museums (Q 12366). -
The American Invasion of Iraq: Causes and Consequences
Raymond Hinnebusch THE AMERICAN INVASION OF IRAQ: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES Raymond HINNEBUSCH* As the Middle East has become the centerpiece of its drive for global hegemony, America’s de-stabilizing impact on the region has deepened; equally, the reaction from the Middle East to US policy carries important consequences for US hegemony globally. The Iraq war is the pivotal event around which these developments centre. Explaining the US Invasion of Iraq The invasion of Iraq can only be properly understood by bringing together three levels of analysis: 1) US global grand strategy 2) the US strategic position in the Middle East; and 3) the interests of Bush's ruling coalition. Understanding the Iraq war, in turn, exposes the inner mainsprings of US Middle East policy and the region's pivotal role in overall US global strategy. US Global Grand Strategy and the Middle East The starting point for understanding the invasion of Iraq is the grand strategy of the US under Bush to undertake a coercive assertion of global hegemony. The Project for a New American Century frankly acknowledges this reach for hegemony. The Bush doctrine and the 2002 National Security Strategy, formulated in response to the 9/11 attacks, make explicit the coercive turn: the call for "full spectrum dominance;" the strategy of dealing with resistance to the US not simply through traditional containment, but via "preventive wars;" the resort to unilaterialism, with ad-hoc "coalitions of the willing;" the view that states not with the US in the war on terrorism are against it; and the claim that only the US liberal model is legitimate, with sovereignty exempting no nation from the demand that it conform. -
Iran's Transformation from Revolutionary to Status Quo Power
Iran’s Transformation from Revolutionary to Status Quo Power in the Persian Gulf Mohsen M. Milani* The following article was written by Mohsen Milani in connection with his participation in the conference entitled “Iran After 25 Years of Revolution: A Retrospective and a Look Ahead,” which was held at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars on November 16-17, 2004. The opinions expressed here are those of the author and in no way represent the views or opinions of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. In March 2003, the United States did for Iran what Iran itself tried but failed to achieve after eight long years of bloody war with Iraq, namely to overthrow Saddam Husayn. As a result of this momentous event, the strategic cards in the Persian Gulf were shuffled, creating new opportunities as well as existential threats for Iran. On the one hand, Iraq, Iran’s archenemy, was defeated and its historically oppressed Shi’i majority—a potential ally for Iran—was liberated and energized, and Iran solidified its position as the most powerful indigenous force in the region. On the other hand, the United States virtually encircled Iran with its more than 150,000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, elevating Iran’s threat perception to an unprecedented level. In what follows, I will discuss the transformation of Iran’s Persian Gulf policy since 1979, its role in past regional security regimes, its reaction to the emerging strategic situation in the region, and its current policy toward Iraq. I will make four main arguments. First, the collapse of Saddam Husayn has accelerated Iran’s transformation from a revolutionary to a regional status quo power in search of creating “spheres of influence.” One of Iran’s ultimate strategic goals is to become a hub for the transit of goods and services between the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan, Central Asia, and possibly China. -
The Evolution of Russian, Syrian, and Iranian Actions Against the Jihadist Movements and Turkish-U.S
ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security Issue The Evolution of Russian, Syrian, and Iranian Actions Against the No. 394 Jihadist Movements and Turkish-U.S. Responses Jan 2016 Yossef Bodansky The Evolution of Russian, Syrian, and Iranian Actions Against the Jihadist Movements and Turkish-U.S. Responses Yossef Bodansky January 2016 Abstract Almost three months into the Russian military intervention in Syria and Iraq - a clear strategy has emerged. Russia is spearheading a regional allied effort to consolidate tangible gains - to stabilize the lines before Winter freezes the fighting. When fighting resume in early Spring 2016, the Jihadist forces will no longer be able to threaten the Fertile Crescent of Minorities and the buffer areas surrounding Shiite Iraq. Emboldened, better equipped and retrained - the forces allied with Russia will then be able to go on the strategic offensive under a unified master-plan. In mid-October, the Kremlin clarified that the Russian strategic-political objectives in Syria are to stabilize and consolidate the Assad administration as the key to defeating the Jihadist forces, as well as to compel the US-led West to accept and acknowledge this reality. For the Kremlin, all anti-Assad forces are terrorists. In mid-November, Putin returned to Moscow from the G-20 summit convinced that any attempt to deal with Obama was an exercise in futility and that a major face-off, even crisis, over Syria was only a question of time. Hence, the Kremlin resolved to seize the strategic initiative. Thus, the Russian military intervention has already had a profound impact on the region’s strategic-political posture. -
Syrian Armed Opposition Coastal Offensive
The Carter Center April 1, 2014 Syrian Armed Opposition Coastal Offensive The al-Anfal Campaign for the Syrian Coast By March 24th, the al-Anfal Campaign had On March 21, 2014 three armed opposition incorporated an additional member group, the groups, the Ansar al-Sham Battalions, the Islamic Ahrar al-Sham Movement.2 All groups al-Nusra Front, and the Sham al-Islam Move- participating in the campaign are particularly ment, announced the start of a high profile hard line, sharing a Salafi Islamist ideology and offensive in the northern countryside of the Lat- a high contingent of foreign fighters within their akia governorate on the Syrian coast.1 Named ranks. Some were previously involved in a sim- the al-Anfal Campaign on the Syrian Coast, the ilar offensive on the Syrian coast in late summer campaign seeks to expel government forces from 2013 where opposition forces were implicated in the Latakia countryside. the massacre of Alawite villages.3 1. [“Statement of the al-Anfal Campaign in the Syrian Coast”], Youtube video, posted by: “AboRyan Lattakia,” March 20, 2014, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-ngB4fOZOwwww.youtube.com/watch?v=C-ngB4fOZOw 2. Twitter post, posted by: “@mhesne,” March 25, 2014, https://twitter.com/mhesne/status/448517844138229761 3. Jonathan Steele, “Syria: massacre reports emerge from Assad’s Alawite heartland,” October 2, 2013, The Guardian, http://www. theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/02/syria-massacre-reports-alawites-assad www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-ngB4fOZOw 1 The Carter Center The al-Nusra Front: Present throughout Syria, the group is the official al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. -
Israel's Approach to Iran: the Netanyahu Revolution
Israel’s Approach to Iran: The Netanyahu Revolution by Dr. Reza Parchizadeh BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,114, August 5, 2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: By directly speaking to the people of Iran, former Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu dispelled the “Israelphobia” the Islamic Republic had instilled in Iranian society. In the process, he undermined the regime’s most essential ideological instrument to maintain its hold over the nation. The premiership of Benjamin Netanyahu has finally come to an end. The revolution he started in terms of Israel’s strategic approach to Iran, however, will continue to break new ground for years to come. Netanyahu was a uniquely clear-eyed political leader in our paralyzingly relativistic times. In an age of gray morality, when political correctness prevails in the West, Netanyahu boldly drew a sharp line between good and evil and openly called Islamofascism the greatest threat to human civilization. Up to his last moment in office, he insisted that the ultimate source of Islamofascism, the apocalyptic regime in Iran, must be destroyed. While unwaveringly pointing his finger at Tehran, Netanyahu blamed the leaders of the Western democracies for their shortsightedness and willingness to appease Iran’s murderous regime. It was with this clear vision that he revolutionized Israel’s strategic approach to Iran—an approach that could, in the long run, facilitate the regime’s fall. Along with his other trailblazing initiative, the Abraham Accords with several Gulf States, Netanyahu’s unblinking approach to the reality of the Iranian fundamentalist threat lay the groundwork for a major change in Israel’s relations with regional actors that could usher in an era of stability and peace in the Middle East. -
Iraq in Crisis
Burke Chair in Strategy Iraq in Crisis By Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai January 6, 2014 Request for comments: This report is a draft that will be turned into an electronic book. Comments and suggested changes would be greatly appreciated. Please send any comments to Anthony H. Cordsman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, at [email protected]. ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Iraq in Crisis: Cordesman and Khazai AHC Final Review Draft 6.1.14 ii Acknowledgements This analysis was written with the assistance of Burke Chair researcher Daniel DeWit. Iraq in Crisis: Cordesman and Khazai AHC Final Review Draft 6.1.14 iii Executive Summary As events in late December 2013 and early 2014 have made brutally clear, Iraq is a nation in crisis bordering on civil war. It is burdened by a long history of war, internal power struggles, and failed governance. Is also a nation whose failed leadership is now creating a steady increase in the sectarian divisions between Shi’ite and Sunni, and the ethnic divisions between Arab and Kurd. Iraq suffers badly from the legacy of mistakes the US made during and after its invasion in 2003. It suffers from threat posed by the reemergence of violent Sunni extremist movements like Al Qaeda and equally violent Shi’ite militias. It suffers from pressure from Iran and near isolation by several key Arab states. It has increasingly become the victim of the forces unleashed by the Syrian civil war. Its main threats, however, are self-inflicted wounds caused by its political leaders.