Knocking Down the White Picket Fence The Institute’s discussion paper New Families for Changing Times by Pamela Kinnear attracted strong reactions, not least because it directly challenged the conservative rhetoric of moral decline. Dr Kinnear explains. Since the 1960s, change in marriage and particularly where they have an No. 32 September 2002 sexual behaviour in Western societies has adverse effect on children. That is why been rapid and extensive. Such far-reaching this has been the overwhelming change is, of course, no trivial matter. But emphasis of research and public Knocking Down the White if we are to believe conservative politicians, debate to date, with the effects of Picket Fence church leaders and commentators, it is divorce on children serving as a kind Pamela Kinnear nothing short of disaster. of ‘canary in the coal mine’. The canary is certainly not thriving, with A Way Through the ‘Family breakdown’, we are told, is due to children from separated families Maternity Leave Maze a wider decline in moral values and the apparently worse off on a range of Bruce Chapman unhealthy dominance of selfish measures than children from intact individualism over more traditional values families. Rescuing the Truth from the of responsibility and obligation. As Kids Overboard Affair National Party leader John Anderson Families are what families do Richard Mills recently told his party conference, the However, it is far too premature to be Whither the Democrats? erosion of family values has resulted in a “self-indulgent push for doing whatever writing the canary’s obituary. Recent Clive Hamilton feels good whenever we want to do it” that research has shown that the Greenhouse Emissions in the comes at the cost of “far too many of our difference between children from Long Term children.” intact and separated families has been Hal Turton exaggerated and is often falsely Parents and their children are attributed to the separation. We now A Statement by Professional engaged in an intense, difficult know that many children will suffer if, Economists on Climate but potentially rewarding project or even because, their parents stay Change of re-inventing family life. together. A good deal of post-divorce problems can be explained by the A $1 billion scam? But as the world undergoes rapid, quality of pre-divorce family life and Comment by Paul Pollard turbulent and far-reaching transformations most children from separated families Disability and the Embryonic in economic, cultural and political spheres, do very well. family life cannot be expected to remain Stem Cell Debate We also now know that a range of static and untouched. Erik Leipoldt factors – such as financial security and connection to networks of family, Institute notes Modern parents face a complex world with friends and community – ease competing pressures and unique risks. Far children’s transition to post- from selfishly sacrificing children on the separation life. The transition is also altar of parental sexual and personal easier if children are appropriately gratification, for the most part, parents and informed of the impending separation, their children are engaged in an intense, if parents are able to constructively difficult but potentially rewarding project deal with their conflicts and if at least of re-inventing family life for a rapidly one parent is able to exercise changing world. competent, authoritative parenting. Of course, it is important to monitor and In short, the research generally shows respond to the pitfalls of family change – that it is what families do, rather than THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE

what families are, that primarily on how to achieve this. But as one of access parents to their children. determines children’s wellbeing. relationship counsellor recently said: Rather, it requires adults to work at “In my twelve years of counselling becoming psychologically mature New research by the UK’s Centre for separating couples, I have only known parents. This is as true for intact Research on Family, Kinship and of one person that I could honestly families as it is for separated families. Childhood is also helping us to say was not trying hard enough.” understand at a deeper level what it is We need to build new that families do that makes so much Exhorting parents to be more moral foundations for difference. According to this research, committed to duty and less selfish in families of the future. rather than abandoning morality, an effort to ‘re-stabilise’ family life people in separated families confront may satisfy the righteous indignation Families are changing, but they are daily moral decisions that those in of some, but for those experiencing doing so for reasons far more complex more conventional arrangements often family upheavals, the call is insulting than the alleged decline in moral do not have to face. and produces counterproductive values and rise of selfish levels of guilt. But perhaps more individualism. Times have changed We need to purge public importantly, it is not likely to succeed and we are still adjusting. We are debate of the moral panic in making family life any happier or acutely aware of what might be going surrounding family any more ‘stable’. wrong, but our myopic focus on the breakdown. negative is of limited use for the future. If we want to encourage greater Rather than heralding the end of parental responsibility, we need to Instead, we need to know far more morality, family change finely tunes reconsider what this means. Parental about what we are doing right, and of our moral sensibilities in ways that responsibility means more than the lessons we are learning along the the old rule-following could never do. ‘staying together for the sake of the way so that we can support and build In fact, the key to successful post- children’, or providing financial new moral foundations for families of separation family life seems to be the support or ensuring greater equality the future. ability of parents to move beyond dutifully following a set of conventional moral rules and to More ads, less knowledge become active ‘moral agents’. In 2001, more than $7.2 billion was spent on advertising in This means they can critically reflect on (and change) their own behaviour Australia. While this was actually a small reduction on the and attitudes and can employ an ethic amount spent during the year of the 2000 Olympics, it still of care in relation to all parties. They represents an enormous amount of resources in comparison also consider children as individuals to other activities designed to create and distribute instead of possessions to be information. distributed according to some rigid notion of justice. For example, in 2001 $9.4 billion was spent on higher Re-thinking family education in Australia. So it would seems that the advertising industry is almost as big as high education. If contributions This is a sea-change in the way we to GDP are regarded as the measure of national well-being, think about family change and it then advertising contributes nearly as much as higher shows that we need to purge public education. debate of the moral panic surrounding ‘family breakdown’. Instead, we need Compared to the $7.2 billion spent on advertising, Australia’s to accept that, for the most part, separating parents do not act out of investment in higher education seems quite modest. Total an attitude of ‘if-it-feels-good-do-it’, revenue for the University of Sydney is $674 million. We could nor do they disregard the have ten more universities the size of Sydney’s for the cost of consequences for their children. advertising in Australia. Would we be better off with ten additional Sydney Universities and no advertising? Adults often describe marriage breakdown as the most traumatic of The Australia Institute has considered the contributing of their lives and they deeply desire that their children be protected from harm, advertising to national well-being in the construction of the although it is sometimes hard to agree Genuine Progress Indicator. We will continue to examine this issue, especially as it relates to overconsumption.

2 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE

A Way Through the Maternity Leave Maze The debate over paid maternity leave has been bogged down over who should pay – employers or the tax-payer through the government. Bruce Chapman of the Centre for Economic Policy Research at the ANU cuts through the debate with an innovative solution – income contingent loans. If properly financed, paid maternity contributions from each of the three whatever debt is decided by the leave (PML) has the potential to agents. government after the period of leave improve economic efficiency and finishes. benefit both employers and parents An income-related repayment and children. Broader social benefits model. How would it work? add to the desirability of PML. There is an alternative way of There are many different possible From an economic perspective, there approaching PML, and many other variations. The simplest model might are important synergies and forms of government intervention. work as follows. A mother, Irene, connections between firms and the This is through the notion of applies for the loan, which might have workers they employ. Firms and repayable loans, with obligations a maximum level of, say, $1,000 per workers invest in each other. being determined by a person’s future month (tax free, since it is a loan), for Employees acquire skills of value to income. This is the financing a maximum of, say, nine months. If the specific workplaces, and the approach used in Australia’s Higher government wants to subsidise the investment costs and benefits in this Education Contribution Scheme. loan, it might require eventual process are shared between the HECS involves former students repayment of only, say, $6,000. Irene parties. repaying some of the direct taxpayer and her partner, if there is one, costs of higher education, but only if contract to repay the loan according Costs are incurred by both the firm and when graduates’ personal to particular rules concerning future and the worker when an employee incomes exceed a minimum threshold income after her period of leave leaves a permanent job. The employer (which is currently around $24,000 per finishes. has to train a new worker, and the annum). separated worker is likely to take a job A variation to the basic in a new firm with commensurately An income contingent loan scheme model would involve lower wages because some new skills for PML – or, indeed, any form of paid employer contributions. have to be learnt. Thus, policies that carer’s leave – seems to have precisely allow and encourage workers to enjoy the same potential as HECS. After all, The Australian Tax Office records the the benefits of time out of paid work such a scheme addresses the fact that debt against the tax file numbers of for child rearing need to be designed commercial loans – such as through one or both parents, and deducts in ways that maximise the chances of an extension of a mortgage – would payments from the higher earning those taking leave returning to the be unacceptable to many parents to parent. Repayments could start original firm. cover unpaid work leave, given the wherever the government wants; for high risks associated with the example, the first income threshold For society, there are also costs repayment of debt on the basis of could be $35,000 per year, with the associated with poor parental leave unknown future income. An income level of debt reduction being say 3 arrangements, including losses in contingent loan solves this problem, per cent per annum. For a debt of say, output, lower productivity since repayments are not required in $6,000 this would mean repayments performance and forgone tax revenue periods of low future incomes. of around $27 a week, with the if workers do not return to the place obligation being fully repaid after of original employment. It must be stressed that the use of a about four years. HECS-type mechanism for PML does An income contingent loan not mean that the employee would be A variation to the basic model would scheme seems to have paying for all the direct costs of the involve employer contributions. It precisely the same potential income transfer. Such a scheme can might work as follows. Irene is as HECS. be designed in ways that allow interested in taking more than nine considerable public subsidies. months off on $1,000 per month, and The three agents – firms, workers and the government offers the following government – can all be made better As well, the scheme should be option. She can take an additional off with a correct approach to parental designed in a way that repayment three months at $1,000 per month if leave. This has the obvious obligations are undertaken by both implication that a correct funding parents (if possible), with the parent model for PML is likely to involve with the higher income repaying continued on page 12

3 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE

Rescuing the Truth from the Kids Overboard Affair

The Senate Committee inquiry into a certain maritime incident, commonly known as the children overboard affair, is about to hand down its report. Richard Mills comments on what the affair has revealed about the changing relationship between the Government and the Australian Public Service.

The Senate Committee report will raise and that there was no evidence of that Why did PM&C not tell the Prime a number of issues of principle much happening. On 10 October Strategic Minister? Why was the photo story more related to good government than Command wrote to PM&C and to not corrected? What was the role of to the question of whether asylum Reith’s office saying “there is no Ministerial advisers? What was seekers really threw their children indication that children were thrown wrong with the communication overboard. It should allow overboard. It is possible that this did systems? Australians to judge whether occur.” Government Ministers last year Photographic evidence deliberately created a false impression On the same day, Defence Minister in order to gain a political advantage. Reith told the media that a Navy video CDF has said that he was not showed a child being pushed into the persuaded the original message about The children overboard affair also water. By 11 October, Navy and children overboard was unfounded raises important questions about the Defence knew that it did not. In mid- until he spoke to Banks personally on processes within the Government’s October, Defence told Reith’s office 24 February 2002, even though his administration. Within the the video was inconclusive, yet on 19 most senior adviser in the chain of Departments of Defence and Prime October, Reith said it was an “absolute command had told him on 10 October Minister and Cabinet (PM&C) there fact” that the video showed children there was no evidence to support the was confusion and ambiguity both in were thrown overboard. allegation. communication and in the application of responsibility. Minister Reith also released photos, CDF had then told his staff to collect which he claimed showed children witness statements but did nothing Reith said it was an thrown overboard. They were actually more, on the ground that it was up to “absolute fact” that the of people being rescued after the boat them to come back to him and persuade video showed children were sank on 8 October, not of any incident him his original understanding was thrown overboard. on 7 October. On 11 October, Defence wrong – and they did not do so. told their Minister and his office that Although he acted immediately to tell On 7 October 2001, the story that a the photos were misrepresented. Reith the public presentation of the child had been thrown over the side Nothing more was done to correct the photos was wrong, he waited until 17 of an asylum seekers’ boat spread public perception, and Reith’s office October even to go as far as saying outwards and upwards very quickly refused to release the video until just that there were doubts about the to Ministers and top officials in before the election. children overboard story itself. Defence, PM&C, Immigration and Foreign Affairs and Trade. The story Leaks to the Opposition in February “If my head of department was clearly of considerable political this year proved the photos were had let me go on the air and significance, and very vigorous media misrepresented, and Ministers make statements that he coverage followed Minister claimed they had never been told the or she knew to be false, I Ruddock’s announcement and follow- initial advice about children would have had their up comments by the Prime Minister overboard on 7 October was wrong. bloody job.” Jeff Kennett and Ministers Reith and Downer. Many observers believed that since so many people knew the truth at the Jane Halton of PM&C claims that at A misunderstanding time, either Ministers must also have no time was she told that children had known, or politically biased officials not been thrown overboard, despite On 10 and 11 October 2001, the (military and civilian) had deliberately seeing the Strategic Command supposed source of the story, avoided giving them news they did chronology of 10 October which said Commander Banks, the captain of not want to hear. that “there is no indication that HMAS , told his superiors children were thrown overboard. It is orally and in writing that there was a Why did the Chief of the Defence possible that this did occur.” She has misunderstanding, that he had never Force (CDF) not tell his Minister that argued that the chronology did not said a child was thrown overboard, children were not thrown overboard? say that children were not thrown

4 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE overboard, then that a junior officer should not be questioned by Senate when he was in opposition and took the message, then that it was Committees. The ALP has not really seeking the truth in a Parliamentary overtaken by the release of the pushed the point, presumably looking Committee, Humphrey says, “I’m glad photos and the existence of the video, ahead to the time when it is no longer you thought so, Minister.” and then that Defence never told in Opposition but may well have some PM&C the photos were a things it does not want to discuss in Communications breakdown misrepresentation. public. The worry is that skill in this area has She did not know that the Defence There is no real and virtuous reason led officials to avoid telling Ministers Liaison Officer in PM&C’s to differentiate Ministerial staff, what they know they will not want to International Division had told his whether they be seconded public hear. When Brigadier Silverstone superiors on 11 October that the servants or party political advisers, mentioned to Minister Reith on 31 photos did not show children being from bureaucrats. They are all paid October that the video did not show thrown overboard. The Defence from the public purse, are accountable children being thrown into the water, Branch head remembers only being to Ministers for their actions or he expected Reith to know and told of a rumour about an error in the inactions, and often have considerable acknowledge that. However, Reith timing of the photos, and anyway influence on both policy and merely said to his staffer, “well, we’d considered it was Halton’s area of administration. The theoretical reason better not see the video then.” Asked responsibility. behind subjecting public servants to about a public servant’s failure to examination by Parliamentary follow up warnings about the absence Minister Reith and his advisers were committees is to understand the of evidence, the Prime Minister said, told almost immediately that the complexity and comprehensiveness of “I’m not going to make an adverse photos did not show children thrown the reasoning that goes into judgement about that.” overboard. The absence of a public Government decisions. correction was serious enough for the There are extensive communication Secretary of Defence later to offer his “Well, we’d better not see systems in Defence and PM&C resignation over it. I assume this was the video then.” Peter Reith designed to keep areas informed of not only because he knew it was a matters that affect their interests, even fundamental responsibility to make it What usually drives secrecy is the fear if peripheral. There are well- clear that the Minister had made a of discovery of irrelevant, unsound or established communication systems public statement that was factually immoral reasons. There is no reason between departments designed for the incorrect. why the public should not be told how same purpose. However, there are real decisions were reached, and how the responsibilities that cannot be Public servants have been decision-maker weighed up the compartmentalised or avoided. If the trying to avoid embarrass- importance, costs and benefits of the Prime Minister says, “if these reports ing governments since conflicting views put forward on that are correct” and a senior officer in Parliamentary committees particular question. This is as true for another department knows they are started. decision-makers in Ministerial offices not, he or she should immediately tell as it is for those in departments. PM&C. It was also because he felt that it was his personal responsibility to inform Not that delivering Ministerial staff up Public servants and Ministerial the Minister, given the seriousness to the Senate Committee will advisers are duty bound to provide of the matter, and he had left it to his necessarily provide the whole truth. accurate and timely advice to ensure staff. Jeff Kennett has said, “if my Public servants have been trying to that the public is not misled. head of department had let me go on avoid embarrassing governments Ministerial deception is of course the air and make statements that he since Parliamentary committees another matter. or she knew to be false, I would have started, and there is sometimes a fine had their bloody job.” line between being loyal and unduly responsive to Ministers. Labor’s future Halton claimed to cleave to the frank Richard Mills is a Sydney writer and mediator who formerly held senior We do not know why the story was and fearless approach, saying “spin…was never a province and is positions in the Departments of Defence not corrected in public, in part and Prime Minister and Cabinet. because the Government has not properly a province of prevented the Senate Committee from bureaucrats. And, anyway, we’re no speaking to Ministerial staff. There good at it.” I think Yes Minister is, as has only been desultory and usual, a better guide to reality. When uninformative discussion of why Minister Hacker is sure that Sir former Ministers and Ministerial staff Humphrey answered all his questions

5 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE

Whither the Democrats? Clive Hamilton

Throughout much of the industrialised the bastard child of the two main will displace the Democrats unless the world, the ideological convergence of parties. latter can reinvent themselves as a the dominant political parties, and the party of the new politics. The Greens consequent ascendency of the politics When the party was formed in 1977, grew out of a new community of spin, has seen widespread there was enough space between the movement rather than the old struggle disillusionment with the old parties main parties for another to occupy the between capital and labour, and and the political system they control. centre ground. But when the policies therefore was born from an approach of the old parties converged – as they to activism that repudiated the old While a majority of voters have stuck did when the Hawke-Keating politics. reluctantly with the traditional parties, Governments of the 1980s adopted the a large number, seeking a fresh neo-liberal agenda – there was no Some senior Democrats, including alternative, have turned to parties and space left in the middle to occupy. Natasha Stott Despoja, understand groupings that appear to diverge from There is no mileage in setting out to the bind their party is in, crippled by the old model of politics. These new keep the bastards honest if voters its history and struggling to adapt to parties are occupied not with doing don’t feel any better off if they are the new politics. As long as the party deals and engaging in tax-cutting kept honest. is seen by the electorate to be the auctions but represent a vision, party that keeps the bastards honest something that is based on principle The Greens will displace the it will be associated in the public mind rather than personal advancement. Democrats unless the latter with the old parties and the old can reinvent themselves as politics. These trends have changed the face a party of the new politics. of politics in Australia, as traditional The Lees-Murray forces have shown party loyalties have evaporated, the The role played by Democrats in the themselves to be, unapologetically, primary votes for the major parties Senate in recent years, and especially creatures of the old politics with have plummeted, and small parties and since the Coalition was elected in Murray – in comments reminiscent of independents have found themselves 1996, reflects way in which the Edmund Burke’s famous sitting on the leather benches of Democrats have become locked into characterisation of the duties of the legislatures around the country. the old politics. All of the elected representative – explicitly contradictions inherent in the rejecting the right of the party A party that was formed to transition from the old to the new membership to intervene in the support the best and reject politics were revealed in the deal Meg decisions of their parliamentary the worst of the two old Lees and Andrew Murray (with advice representatives. parties owes its existence to from John Cherry and support from the old parties. ) negotiated with the “Your representative owes over the GST. you, not his industry only, but As the ‘third force in Australian his judgement; and he betrays, politics, the Democrats were founded They played the classic role of the instead of serving you, if he too early to be a party of the new middle party of the old politics and sacrifices it to your opinion.” politics. The crippling ructions within received lavish praise in the Murdoch the party over recent months is a stark press for being ‘mature’ and Edmund Burke, Speech to illustration of the fact that the original ‘responsible’. But the stinging rebuff his constituents, 1774 party of protest has not adapted itself from the electorate and subsequent to the new political dispensation, but internal warfare revealed, at the The Lees-Murray forces believe that remains locked into the old politics. deepest level, the failure of the Lees- the leaders should be left to lead, an Murray forces to understand that, in attitude that has more in common with The party that is characterized by the new dispensation, a small party the approach of Jeff Kennett than the itself, and the public, as the one that that plays the old politics will surely politics of new movements. The keeps the bastards honest has die. leadership of the Labor and Liberal defined itself on the terms of the old parties can more easily get away with parties and the old politics. A party This is at the heart of the troubles such a patrician view, as long as they that was formed to support the best faced by the Democrats in trying to don’t declare their intentions, but the and reject the worst of the two old build and retain a support base, and leaders of the Democrats or the Greens, parties owes its existence to the old why the Greens – unencumbered by or indeed, One Nation, cannot. Their parties. The is any commitment to the old politics –

6 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE members joined up because they want politics melds both the widespread to be heard. need to create the self, to ‘write one’s A $1 billion scam? own biography’, but not in a selfish In a recent report prepared Those who side with Stott Despoja, way. The social concern of young for the Climate Action including the bulk of the membership, people in particular (the bearers of the Network Australia, Paul understand that the party must make new politics) is no less than it once Pollard undertook a review itself more like the Greens, a new party. was, but it is manifested quite for the Institute of the The ‘Change Politics’ slogan of the differently. This is something the Commonwealth last election captured this intent; it did Greens intuitively understand. Government’s greenhouse not draw attention to differences in programs. An overview of policy proposals, but called for a Given the ties that bind the Democrats the findings are presented wholesale change in the way politics to its history, and the bloodletting below. are done in Australia. that has marked attempts to cut them, The Government has claimed it the question arises of why the ‘new has spent or will spend almost $1 Yet the voters were right to be politicians’ of the Democrats do not billion on greenhouse gas confused, for the slogan called for a shift to the Greens? Loyalty to a party abatement. However, Budget new politics at a time when the recent membership seems to be a powerful figures show that actual history of the party, and especially the influence on Stott Despoja. A belief greenhouse spending - GST deal, sent a much more powerful that the party can be brought into the undertaken and committed by message that the Democrats remained era of new politics by way of its departments - is hundreds of wedded to the old politics. democratic structure is another millions of dollars less than this reason, especially as it is clear that a figure. The party’s democratic organisational substantial majority want to go that Over the current six-year Budget structure is the Democrats’ greatest way. period, spending is project to be asset and its only hope. The active around $100-120 million per year. participation of members in policy and The perception of the Greens as a Over the current six-year period, leadership choice is the organisational single-issue party is a huge burden from 2000-01 (when the major essence of the new politics. What it that cannot be shaken off despite spending programs from the GST must now do is reshape what it stands considerable attention to broadening Tax Package began) to 2005-06 for and present it in a way that cannot their policies. By contrast, the (the end of the current forward be confused with the positions of the Democrats have a historical legacy of estimates), past and committed old parties. This necessarily means policy work across all of the major spending on greenhouse that it must become a party less willing issues. Combined with a committed programs by the Australian to compromise. party membership, the Democrats may Greenhouse Office and the well succeed in casting off their industry department, covering In the post-modern world, history and emerging as a party of the virtually all government the Democrats’ liberalism new politics. greenhouse programs, totals $669 could now be an advantage. I am grateful to Hugh Saddler for million. stimulating these ideas. There is no space left between the two In sum, Government claims about old parties for the Democrats to stake the level of greenhouse out and the strategy of the Lees- spending are greatly Murray forces to act merely as a broker TThe Australia Institute exaggerated. The only way a total between the raging bulls put the party of $1 billion spending could be Members of the Institute on a hiding to nothing. While reached would be if spending receive our quarterly historically sharing with the Labor programs at current levels newsletter and free copies Party a socially progressive policy extended over about ten years. of recent publications stance on issues such as healthcare This makes a nonsense of normal (on request). and education, and outperforming it Budget evaluation of figures, on environment and human rights, the which is based on consistent If you would like to become a Democrats, reflecting their roots as a comparison on an annual basis. member of the Institute breakaway from the Liberal Party, please contact us at: Moreover, much of what is eschewed the collectivist approach of Garden Wing genuine greenhouse spending is Labor. University House likely to prove ineffective in ANU, ACT 0200 helping Australia reach either its In the post-modern world the Kyoto target or longer-term Democrats’ liberalism could now be Phone: 02 6249 6221 Fax: 02 6249 6448 targets, and it should be an advantage, as long as it is redirected to make a more efficient [email protected] recognised that the neo-liberalism of and effective contribution to the the right is not the answer. The new www.tai.org.au greenhouse task.

7 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE

Greenhouse Emissions in the Long Term Two years ago the UK Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution brought down a report examining the feasibility of achieving a 60 per cent reduction in Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Australia Institute will soon publish a detailed analysis of how Australia could achieve deep reductions in emissions over the same timeframe. Hal Turton discusses the background to this study and outlines some other recent work by the Institute on climate change.

In all of the debate over the but without the participation of the the world will need “a high level of greenhouse gas emission cuts USA and Australia. But whether the environmental and social mandated by the Kyoto Protocol, it is Protocol takes effect or not, the consciousness combined with a easy to forget that the Protocol problem of climate change is not globally coherent approach to a more represents only a small first step in the going to disappear. sustainable development” and path to a low-carbon future. “radical technological change in The energy systems”. recognises the need for substantial The Intergovernmental Panel on long-term emission reductions, with The Institute’s forthcoming report Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that Foreign Minister investigates how this would play out the nations of the world will need to noting that emissions will need to be in Australia, and examines whether it go much further than the initial Kyoto cut by between one half and two- is even technically feasible within the targets in order to avoid dangerous thirds. context of continuing economic and climate change. population growth. Importantly, The figure below illustrates the extent bringing about a radical change in Even stabilising carbon dioxide of the task of reducing Australia’s energy systems will require early concentrations at double pre-industrial emissions by 70 per cent – total planning and action, particularly levels will require deep cuts in annual emissions in 2050 will need to be less since, like the climate system, energy global emissions, eventually by 70 per than emissions from agriculture and systems have great inertia – transport cent or more. land-clearing today. systems, buildings, urban lay-outs and electric power plants take decades After gaining momentum at the How can this be achieved? The IPCC to transform. This makes the Johannesburg Summit, it now seems has developed scenarios that forthcoming paper highly relevant to very likely that the Kyoto Protocol will suggest answers this question – with current policy-making. enter into force in the coming months, continued strong economic growth

Reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 70 per cent by 2050

600

Transport 500

Construction and -e)

2 waste 400 Agriculture, land-use change and forestry

300 Residential

200 Commercial

Emissions (Mt CO Mining 100 Manufacturing

0 Total 2050 1998-99 2050

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And the winner is … Australia

Around the world, when anyone B countries in 1999 were 12.8 tonnes So for most countries land-use change and forestry (LUCF) activities act as a declares that Australia has the highest of CO2-e. This average is heavily greenhouse gas emissions per capita influenced by the per capita emissions net sink, except in Australia where of all industrial countries they are of the European Union (10.2 tonnes they are a substantial source emissions. quoting Australia Institute figures. of CO2-e per person) and the USA

(20.7 tonnes of CO2-e), which account The Institute recently publishing its for the bulk of population in, and Australia also has high per capita latest estimates of comprehensive per emissions from, industrialised emissions from energy consumption. capita emissions for industrialised countries. For instance, of the countries countries, building on similar work for presented in the figure, Germany, previous years. Australia has the highest level of per Japan and the United Kingdom all capita greenhouse gas emissions in generate a similar amount of emissions The Institute’s most recent analysis the industrialised world, with per person from fuel combustion (9- 10 tonnes per person), whilst of data from United Nations emissions of 27.9 tonnes of CO2-e per Framework Convention on Climate person in 1999. This is over twice the Australia and the USA produce 70- Change (UNFCCC) secretariat covers industrialised country average of 12.8 100 per cent more per capita (17-20 tonnes). emissions in 1999 and includes all tonnes CO2-e, 25 per cent higher than sources (and sequestration in sinks) the next highest per capita emitter, of the six major greenhouse gases. Canada, and 35 per cent higher than It is also interesting to note that the world’s largest polluter, the USA. although the USA generates the most Overall, industrialised (Annex B) emissions from fuel combustion in per countries were responsible for total In comparison, per capita emissions capita terms, Australia’s emissions net emissions of almost 14.7 billion in major industrialised European from agriculture and LUCF are of a tonnes of greenhouse gas, measured countries, such as France (8.2 tonnes), sufficient size to push Australia well Germany (11.6), Italy (9.1) and the UK ahead of the USA. New Zealand is in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) in 1999, which was fractionally less (10.8) are substantially lower. also an interesting case, where around than the emissions reported for the half of all emissions arise from same group of countries in 1998. Australia’s per capita emissions are agriculture (mainly methane from high for a number of reasons. Firstly, cattle and sheep). Per capita emissions for selected unlike almost all other developed countries are shown in the figure. The countries, Australia continues to average per capita emissions of Annex undertake large-scale land-clearing.

Greenhouse gas emissions per capita (tonnes per annum per person) 30 -e) 2 25

20

15

10

5 Per capita emissions (t CO

0 e A ny K n a U pa nce ag US a m J er Fra Australia aver G B nex An

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A Statement By Professional Economists on Climate Change 1. A report by over 2000 distinguished international scientists under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has determined that there is ‘new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities’. 2. The IPCC has warned that ‘regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world’. In Australia, the CSIRO has warned that climate change has the potential to seriously disrupt and damage agricultural output, water flows and natural systems. 3. As economists we believe that global climate change carries with it serious environmental, economic and social risks and that preventive steps are justified. 4. Policy options are available that would slow climate change without harming employment or living standards in Australia, and these may in fact improve productivity in the long term. 5. Economic instruments – such as carbon taxes or emissions trading – will be an important part of a comprehensive climate change policy. Revenue raised from carbon taxes or the sale or permits can be used to reduce taxes elsewhere in the economy. 6. Since OECD countries are responsible for over 80% of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and are in a stronger economic position, they should take the lead in cutting emissions. It is fair that developing countries should begin reducing their emissions only when OECD countries have led the way. 7. No serious alternative to the Kyoto Protocol has been proposed. In particular, the Bush Administration’s ‘Climate Action Plan’ amounts to ‘business as usual’. Suggestions that Australia should co-operate with the US in the development of an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol lack credibility in the absence of any commitment by the US to reduce emissions. 8. It is in Australia’s economic interests to join international efforts and we call on the Australian Government to ratify the Kyoto Protocol without delay. This statement has been signed by 271 academic economists in Australia, including 44 professors. For the full list of signatories go to ‘What’s New’ on the Institute’s website – www.tai.org.au.

The Silver Lining Project We are grateful for the responses from Institute members to our call for ideas on the Silver Lining project. Following the Institute’s Discussion Paper Population Ageing: Crisis or Transition? – which argued that the various claims about unsustainable growth in the costs of healthcare and pensions are exaggerated – the new project will investigate and document the benefits of living in a society with an older age structure. Judith Healy of the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (ANU) will be developing the project for the Institute and will draw on the material and commentaries that we have received so far. Additional Cartoon reprinted with permission of Andrew Weldon. contributions are very welcome.

10 THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE

Disability and the Embryonic Stem Cell Debate

In recent weeks, the corridors and offices of the Federal Parliament have been the site of some emotion-charged speeches about the potential benefits of embryonic stem cell research on eradicating various forms of disability and disease. Institute member Erik Leipoldt comments on the political uses of disability.

Simon Crean is one of many MP’s who problems remain unresolved. Even in not the sound of altruism. And it is supports embryonic stem cell our wealthy society, disability costing people with disabilities. research. This is for reason of giving advocacy is still extremely necessary. ‘patients and their families hope’ for People with disabilities still face We had arrived, I thought, at some ‘cure of diseases like diabetes, motor isolation from mainstream education, understanding that disability is not neurone disease, Parkinson’s disease, employment and community life. just created through impairment. Our Alzheimer’s disease and spinal cord collective social values and attitudes injuries’. What’s going on with all the tears and create much of the disability pleading? Clearly, politicians are not experience. And changing them does He said that, such people ‘know intending to suddenly make a big not involve ethically contentious isolation’ and their ‘lives can never effort on outstanding issues facing action. be normal’. And, of course ‘creating people living with disabilities now. wealth and jobs in the new No, some ride the public fear of human Now, the embryonic stem cell lobby is biotechnology industries’ is of only fragility and disability as a means to shamelessly sacrificing these hard- secondary importance to helping their far more lowly profiled agenda – won gains for profit, reminiscent of these people, he said. that of potential profits, profits from tear-jerk fundraising by charities of the ethically controversial and old. We’re back to ‘disability as I found it offensive to see potential $70 billion embryonic stem tragedy’, a condition to be pitied and disability being used as a cell research industry. After all, the cured. This attitude stymies the lobbying tool for the biotech public is less likely to merely support acceptance of people with disability industry. private profits. But it will support a as valued community members and cure for the secret horror of their hinders a healthier accommodation of At the highest political level and in dreams: disability and mental and disability in our own minds. senior scientific circles, we have been physical decline. told first-hand stories of the tragic As a person who has lived with situation faced by people with It took National Party Senator Ron quadriplegia for almost 25 years, I disabilities. Leading politicians Boswell’s speech to expose the have a mandate to protest. In this blinked away tears in Parliament. substantial financial interests of at debate, the public, people with We’ve seen TV images of other least three State governments in disabilities included of course, should politicians visiting people with spinal attracting embryonic stem cell beware of politicians and scientists cord injuries. research for bio-technology centres bearing gifts. in their states. The amount of public And there were scientists making money being poured into some of this The embryonic stem cell lobby’s amazing, enticing promises for cure research is huge. ethically questionable treatment of just so long as we could legalise this debate alone puts its ends in a embryonic stem cell research to help The embryonic stem cell lobby dubious light. It makes for a shaky these unfortunates. is shamelessly sacrificing platform for the respectful treatment these hard-won gains for of either embryos or people with But, in all my years of involvement in profit, reminiscent of tear- disabilities. Disability being part of the advocacy, in disability services and jerk fundraising by charities human condition, all of us should be on government disability advisory of old. concerned about that. groups I have never encountered this emotional concern on the part of most When we now weigh the scales with of these people about the day-to-day these vast financial interests on one Erik Leipoldt is a PhD student at Edith needs of those of us with disabilities. side and the real interests of Cowan University. He is the former Australians with disability on the Executive Officer of People With At times, I must say, quite the other we hear a heavy thump. This is Disabilities, WA and former chair of the contrary. Meanwhile, many disability WA Disabilities Advisory Committee.

11 INSTITUTE NOTES Board Members Barbara Spalding has resigned from the Board of the Institute. Barbara has been a long-standing member of the Board and served as chair for the last two years. The Board expresses its gratitude for all of her work. There have been several changes to the Board of the Institute over the last year or so. The current Directors are:

Sharan Burrow, President, ACTU Tony McMichael, Director, NCEPH, ANU Mary Crooks, Executive Director, Victorian Women’s Barbara Pocock, Director, Centre for Labour Research, Trust Meredith Edwards, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, University Michael Raper, Director, Welfare Rights Centre of Canberra Hugh Saddler, Director, Energy Strategies Pty Ltd Clive Hamilton, Executive Director, The Australia Institute Tim Todhunter, Director, Australian Retirement Fund Molly Harriss Olson, Director, Ecofutures Pty Ltd Mark Wootton, Director, Poola Foundation

New Publications Discussion Paper No. 47 New Families for Changing Times by Pamela Kinnear, July 2002

Farewell Ãine Our office manager Ãine Dowling is leaving to take up a position at the University of Canberra. Ãine has done a superb job as the Institute’s key administrator and will be sorely missed. We wish Ãine well and welcome Leigh Thomas who will take her place.

Maternity Leave...from page 3 case she might then be required to parents wishing to take leave for repay all of the firm’s outlay, again child-rearing purposes face her employer is willing to finance this through the tax system. In this event, unpalatable alternatives – a period part of the loan. The firm pays this to the government would reimburse the of reduced incomes, running down the employee at the appropriate time. firm for its lost outlay. Thus, if Irene savings, or extended borrowing from does not return, she repays more of a bank. Government-sponsored Irene (or her partner) can then repay the loan and the firm will end up paying income related loans could help whatever proportion of the less or even nothing. resolve the issue. government loan ($9,000) the government decides (in the first The work choice contingency example, $6,000). With respect to the described above will encourage a employer-provided part of the loan, worker to resume work at the original Irene’s repayment obligations would firm. If she does, both parties benefit. The be determined by her work decision If she doesn’t, the firm will be at the end of her leave. Some part of recompensed, and the former worker Electronic the employer contribution (even all of (or her partner) will have to repay this it) could be forgiven if she returns to part of the loan, but only if and when Institute the original firm for a specified period they are able. after her leave entitlement. In this circumstance the firm has outlaid an The Australian government has a investment and received a return in proven capacity to collect income [email protected] the form of the Irene’s continuing contingent loans. The circumstances www.tai.org.au employment. for PML – indeed, any form of carer leave – are very similar to the sorts of www.gpionline.net However, the firm stands to lose its problems facing students in their investment if Irene chooses not to funding of university attendance. That return to that workplace, and in this is, without government intervention

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