SOUTH AT THE CUSP REGIONAL SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS

SRINI SITARAMAN PROFESSOR, DKI-APCSS HONOLULU, HI PRESENTATION AGENDA

I. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE REGION AND POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY II. INDIA-CHINA BORDER CONFLICT AND ITS ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES III. REGIONAL TRADE STRUCTURES AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS INDIA COVID-19 SITUATION COVID-19 CASES IN INDIA COVID-19 INFECTION AND DEATH RATES-

Sri Lanka

Deaths Cases Pakistan

COUNTRY Cases Deaths Nepal Afghanistan 41814 1548

Bangladesh 414000 6004

Maldives Bhutan 358 0

Maldives 11796 38

Bhutan Nepal 18300 1034

Pakistan 338000 6867

Sri Lanka 12187 24 Bangladesh

Afghanistan

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 INFECTION RATES

• HAND-TO-HAND TO COMBAT IN GALWAN VALLEY 20 INDIAN SOLDIERS AND UP TO 43 PLA SOLDIERS (SOME ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER) WERE KILLED IN THE CLASHES. (NO OFFICIAL CHINESE ACKNOWLEDGEMENT) • AFTER THE CLASHES THE PLA HAS STARTED BUILDING STRUCTURES, INCLUDING WALLS, TENTS AND INFANTRY GUN POSITIONS AT THE GALWAN RIVER BEND ON 17TH JUNE. Highly Contested Terrain India-China-Pakistan VIETNAM ROK

South Asian System QUAD PLUS JAPAN Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Bhutan USA Maldives QUAD Afghanistan

AUSTRALIA

CHINA NEW ZEALAND

INDIA PAKISTAN

• WHAT IS STRATEGIC COMPETITION? Strategic competition by its very As in and military strategy, the commitments seeks to make a very pattern of competition contains long periods large change in competitive of natural competition punctuated by relationships. Its revolutionary relatively sudden and major shifts in character is moderated only by two relationships as a result of strategy. It is the fundamental inhibitions: strategic age old pattern of war and peace even failure and strategic success. though competition continues during peace.

Strategic competition is derived from In Strategic Competition the Geopolitics is the wisdom of many centuries based on the equilibrium of the expressed in maxims such as relationship that is continued through both “concentrate strength against peace and war. weakness.” • REGIONAL ORDER IS BASED ON INDEPENDENT NATIONS THAT CAN BOTH DEFEND THEIR INTERESTS AND COMPETE FAIRLY IN THE INTERNATIONAL FOIP MARKETPLACE. EXPANDED

• FOIP recognizes the linkages • Rule of law, encourage between economics, resilience in civil society, and governance, and security that promote transparent are part of the competitive governance – all of which landscape throughout the expose malign influences region, and that economic that threaten economic security is national security. development everywhere. TRADE DEPENDENCY

CROSS-CUTTING REGIONAL ALLIANCE AND TRADING RELATIONS • Asian Cooperation Dialogue (ACD- 34) • Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC- Annual Ministerial Meeting) • Economic Cooperation Organization (SCO-10) • (GCC- 6) • SAARC (South Asian Regional Cooperation-8) • Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) • BIMSTEC ( Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, 7) • TC (Turkey + , 5) • ASEAN • BRICS (Not identified) Mahalo Nui Loa