Todayʼs Overview

Lecture: Policy Principles of Internaonal Acon Global warming theory Acvity: Policy Quesons

Reading for Tomorrow: IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (18pp) NYT Whiplash arcle

Slate magazine arcle on journalism of dissent (oponal) IPCC – Scientists Perspective

• Intergovernmental Panel on

• major reports in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007

• Authors shared Noble Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007

• Three “working group” books: • WG1 = The Scientific Basis • WG2 = Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability • WG = Mitigation

• "Summary for Policymakers" is required reading for tomorrow History of IPCC WG1 assertions concerning the detection of human-induced global warming

1990: observed warming is "generally consistent" with predictions from climate models 1995: "balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence" on global average temperature 2001: "There is new and stronger evidence..." that most of the recent warming is due to human activities 2007: "Most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

2007: the first quantitative claim of confidence (>90%). This is a big deal. It asserts that global warming has become a "mature" scientific theory. Managing Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation

Adaptaon (prevent harm; deal with symptoms): Alter human structures and pracces in order to reduce the harmful effects of climate change, e.g.: ‐ improved health care policies for heat‐stress ‐ switch to heat‐resistant crops ‐ build dikes to deal with sea‐level rise

Migaon (prevent climate change; deal with cause): Reduce emissions of GHGs in order to reduce the amount of climate change that takes place, e.g.: ‐ energy conservaon ‐ carbon‐free energy (wind, solar, nuclear) ‐ carbon sequestraon Human problems: Beyond Global Warming

Holdren et al. (2008) "Science and Technology for Sustainable Well-Being", Science, 319, 424-434. Managing Climate Change: Current International Agreements

UNCED Conference on the Environment and Development “Earth Summit” in , , June 1992

Included the Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCC

Kyoto Protocol, 1997/2001 Principles of Current International Agreements

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• Polluter-pays principle

• Principle of equity In-class activity... 1. What does this acronym stand for: IPCC WG I SPM

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 1, Summary for Policymakers

2. Define in your own words

• Sustainable Development

• Precautionary Principle "The Earth Summit" 1992, Rio de Janeiro

Rio Declaration on Environment and Development Representatives of 160 nations met to discuss: - resources needed for development, and - long-term protection of the environment. The agreed upon solution that connects these two issues is "Sustainable development". Rio Declaration lists 27 core principles. Signed by all 160 nations, including the .

Ratified by the United States Senate giving the force of law within this country. Rio Declaration 1992: Sustainable Development*

Principle 1: "Human beings are at the center of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature."

Principle 7: "States shall cooperate . . . to conserve, protect and restore the health and integrity of the Earth's ecosystem."

* "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generaons to meet their own needs." [Bruntland Commission, quoted in IPCC 2007, WGII, TS p.75] Rio Declaration 1992: Precautionary Principle

Principle 15: "Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation." Rio Declaration 1992: Polluter-Pays Principle

"the polluter should, in principle, bear the cost of polluon"

Principle 16: "National authorities should endeavor to promote the internationalization of environmental costs and the use of economic instruments, taking into account the approach that the polluter should, in principle, bear the cost of , with due regard to the public interest and without distorting internatinoal trade and investment." Rio Declaration 1992: Principle of Equity

equity: internaonal and intergeneraonal

Principle 3: "The right to development must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environmental needs of present and future generations."

Principle 5: "All States and all people shall cooperate in the essential task of eradicating as an indispensable requirement for sustainable development..." UNFCCC, 1992

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (extracts, text, p.243) International treaty that emerged from the Rio Earth Summit "The ultimate objective of this Convention... is to achieve... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."

- Signed by the U.S. President, Summer, 1992. - Ratified by the required 2/3 of the U.S. Senate, Fall, 1992. , 1997

UNFCCC: lofty principles, behavior encouraged Kyoto Protocol: the gory details of mandatory implementation (summarized in text, p.246-249)

Annex 1 Countries: Developed nations that agreed to take the lead in reducing GHG emissions. Emission Targets: Specific emission levels for each nation (about 5% reduction on average from 1990 emissions to be achieved by 2012) Global Warming Potential (GWP): Relates emissions of any GHG (methane, nitrous oxide, etc) to the equivalent emission of the main GHG, carbon dioxide. Kyoto Protocol, 1997

- Signed by the U.S. President Clinton in 1997

- never submitted to the Senate for ratification (therefore, never became U.S. law)

- U.S. President Bush officially withdrew in 2005

- treaty comes into effect later in 2005 when Russia adds its signature. (This achieves the requirement that developed countries representing at least 55% of Annex I emissions must sign on.) Kyoto Mechanisms

Complicated! See box on Houghton p. 248 Goal: Specific emission reductions by Annex 1 countries by 2012.

Joint Implementation: Allows developed countries to collaborate in projects that reduce emissions or increase "sinks". (A way of sharing the credit.)

Clean Development Mechanism: Allows developed countries to get credit for projects that reduce emissions in undeveloped countries. (This aids the goal of technology transfer, essential to long-term reductions by the entire world.)

Emissions Trading: Allows developed countries to purchase 'assigned amount units' from other developed countries. Creates a market in "carbon credits". About 1.6 billion people around the world have no electricity (25% of all people)

They burn wood and dung, which often leads to poor air pollution indoor air pollution is one of the world’s top 10 causes of mortality or premature death Ozone hole – Antarcc ozone hole

• the Antarctic ozone “hole” is a region of extreme ozone loss (up to 60%) that has been appearing since the 1970s. • Very harmful locally in spring, then mixes and depletes ozone globally • Caused by Chlorine from human-made freone (CFC) (1987)

Poses strict limits on CFC emissions and other ozone destroying agents

• decrease Cl to levels as before ozone hole (2 ppb) by 2060

• decrease Cl to natural level, within a century

Why has the effort to fight ozone depletion been so successful? (1) CFCs and ozone destruction connected by sound science. (2) Chemical industry fearing federal regulation, developed viable alternatives to CFCs, within a year or two. (3) Equity issues between developed and developing nations were recognized. • developing nations phased out later • fund established by the wealthy countries global commitment to solving the problem. Managing Planet Earth . . .

A new phase in human history An enormous challenge...

Are we up to it? 1 Ansley, Annemarie Kaza 2 Arif, Khalida GROUPS 3 Brooks, Kelly Christine 4 Burger, Corinne Margaret 5 Daniel, Noel Marie 1 Dion, Steven Thomas 2 Doherty, Blaine Timothy 3 Flam, Joshua Eliot 4 Gleason, Kylea Athena 5 Guthrie, Brita Alicia 6 Hart, Russell McDermid 1 Heath, Elizabeth Ann 2 Helms, Hillary Sarah 3 Kimani, Maureen Wangari 4 May, Michael Patrick 5 Nichols, Andrew Peter 6 Omidi, Tayler 1 Paulsson, Kerstin Elizabeth 2 Poole, William Wyatt 3 Rhoades, Christine Marie 4 Sistek, Katie Francis 5 Thomas, Joel Patrick 6 Tomaras, Erin Nicole 1 Voss, Sarah Rose 6 Yang, Hao-Lin Survey Queson 1

How much warming so far? Survey Queson 2

Unanimous agreement that the dominant cause is GHG emissions Survey Queson 3

Confidence caused by humans Today: Global Warming Theory

Outline

i. Global Energy Balance

ii. The Greenhouse Effect

Concepts/vocabulary

‐ radiaon: a form of energy ‐ solar radiaon and terrestrial radiaon ‐ Stefan‐Boltzmann Law: all bodies emit radiaon; warmer bodies emit more Electromagnec (EM) Radiaon

•Called radiaon for short

•All bodies and some gases with temperature above 0K emits radiaon

•Radiaon is an energy flux F (units of W/m 2)

•Radiaon propagates through space at speed of light

•Radiaon is classified by wavelength λ (a) has a long wavelength (b) has a short wavelength Which one is more energec? Why What color of visible light is most energec?

Where and what is infrared light? Where and what is ultraviolet light? What wavelengths does the sun predominantly emit? Infrared Radiaon, IR

•Not visible

•Also called "thermal radiaon" or "heat energy” with regard to maer on Earth

•Also called “terrestrial radiaon” Radiaon and Maer

Absorpon of radiaon causes maer to warm up (or gain heat)

Emission of radiaon causes maer to cool down (or lose heat)

What are examples of each? Temperature of body is crical for Wavelength and Energy of the radiaon

Higher T emits at shorter wavelengths (Wien’s Law)

Higher T emits more total energy (Stefan‐Boltzmann Law) Shortwave and Longwave

Solar and terrestrial

visible and infrared

What do these pairs of terms refer to?