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Market Outlook Today’s Highlights

Indian markets are expected to open flat tracking mixed Asian US building permits, European Council cues. Global news flow on tariff war and domestic construction output MoM, European Council macroeconomic data remain key monitorables. Consumer Confidence

Index Movement

Markets Yesterday 41,000.0 12,200.0 12,000.0  Domestic markets ended lower due to a weaker rupee & 40,000.0 11,800.0 higher crude oil prices 39,000.0 11,600.0 11,400.0  US markets ended marginally higher tracking mixed signals 38,000.0 from the US-China trade deal 11,200.0 37,000.0 11,000.0

4-Nov 2-Nov 6-Nov 8-Nov

15-Oct 17-Oct 19-Oct 21-Oct 23-Oct 25-Oct 27-Oct 29-Oct 31-Oct

12-Nov 14-Nov 16-Nov 18-Nov 10-Nov

Key Developments BSE (LHS) NSE (RHS) Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)  has introduced BS-VI version of Wagon R Sensex 40,284 40,357 -0.2 0.4 11.7 22.1

petrol model at a price of | 4.42 lakh/unit to | 5.41 lakh/unit Nifty 11,885 11,895 -0.1 0.1 9.4 21.2

(ex-showroom, Delhi). The price hike over BS-IV model is ~ | 8,000 i.e. 2%. Institutional Activity  Bhel has commissioned two more pumping units each at CY17 CY18 YTD CY19 Yesterday Last 5 Days Package 6 (7 x 116 MW) and Package 8 (7 x 139 MW) of FII (| cr) -40,663 -68,503 30,691 -271 611 Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation Scheme DII (| cr) 91,032 1,07,388 48,107 309 -1,099  The Oil Minister has said that IOC and Gail will pay World Indices – Monthly performance 5% more in hiring charges for using Dhamra LNG terminal. Now, IOC and Gail will pay toll charge of Nasdaq France Kospi Germany Nikkei | 60.18 /mmbtu for regasification 8,550 5,930 2,152 13,207 23,364 5.7% 5.2% 4.9% 4.5% 3.9%  has notified exchanges that post default by Ezeego Dow Jones BSE U.K. NSE Shanghai One Travel & Tours Ltd the bank has invoked pledge of 28,036 40,284 7,308 11,885 2,914 shares of Tulip Star Hotels, which were issued as collateral. 3.6% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% -1.0% The bank acquired 949930 shares of face value | 10 i.e. 20.61% of the post-issue paid-up share capital as on

September 30, 2019

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Nifty Heat Map https://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/MorningPodcast.html Bharti 409 410 549 194 522 UPL Hindalco BPCL Airtel 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0% Sun 425 294 JSW 250 770 Power 191 Zee Ent. Grasim Pharma 2.3% 2.2% Steel 2.0% 1.9% Grid 1.6% 4,126 Indusind 1,374 325 Tata 170 Vedanta 143 Ultratech SBI 1.2% Bank 1.1% 1.0% Motors 0.9% Ltd 0.9%

Axis 723 21,477 133 2,236 Bajaj 9,106 Markets Today Eicher IOC HDFC Ltd Bank 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% Finserv 0.5% Commodities Close Previous Chng (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) Gold (|/10 gm) 37,931 38,096 -0.4 -1.9 20.2 125 Kotak 1,627 2,737 705 117 GAIL Dr Reddy NTPC Silver (|/kg) 44,071 44,323 -0.6 -5.7 15.2 Bank 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Crude ($/barrel) 62.3 62.4 -0.2 3.5 15.8 251 1,159 752 2,056 1,141 Copper ($/tonne) 5815 5825.5 -0.2 0.8 -2.3 ITC Titan TECHM HUL HCL Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% Currency USD/INR 71.85 71.79 0.1 -1.3 -2.9 Bharti 227 Adani 366 ICICI 498 200 461 EUR/USD 1.11 1.11 0.0 -0.7 -3.5 Infratel -0.2% Ports -0.2% Bank -0.3% -0.4% -0.6% USD/YEN 108.60 108.68 -0.1 -0.5 1.0 7,098 IBULHSG 209 Bajaj 4,155 1,459 1,365 ADRs Maruti RIL L&T -0.7% FIN -0.8% Finance -0.8% -0.8% -1.0% HDFC Bank 61.4 62.0 -0.9 1.4 19.9 ICICI Bank 13.6 13.7 -0.8 5.4 33.5 2,153 134 249 Asian 1,739 HDFC 1,262 TCS ONGC 11.8 11.9 -0.3 -1.8 -2.6 -1.0% -1.2% -1.2% Paints -1.2% Bank -1.2% Infosys 9.9 9.9 0.0 2.8 4.1 Hero 2,503 574 3,141 Bajaj 3,157 66 Dr Reddys Labs 38.3 38.5 -0.5 -1.7 2.1 M&M Britannia Yes Bank Moto -1.6% -1.6% -1.7% Auto -1.8% -4.1% Wipro 3.8 3.9 -2.1 -2.8 0.6

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Key Data Points Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) Key Economic Indicator Period Latest Prior Values 60000

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio N/A 4.00% 4.00%

44,084 41,639 37,035 39,175 33,619 RBI Repo Rate N/A 5.15% 5.40% 40000 33,579 RBI Reverse Repo Rate N/A 4.90% 5.15% 20000

CPI YY Sept 4.62% 3.99%

2,911

2,676 2,673

2,542

2,449 2,082 Current Account Balance Q1 -14.3bln $ -4.6bln $ 0 Exports - USD Aug 26.38 bln $ 26.03 bln $ 8-Nov 11-Nov 13-Nov 14-Nov 15-Nov 18-Nov FX Reserves, USD Final w/e 447.81 bln $ 446.1 bln $ BSE Cash NSE Cash GDP Quarterly yy Q1 5.00% 5.80%

GDP Annual 2018 7.00% 7.20% Imports - USD Aug 37.39 bln $ 36.89 bln $ NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) Industrial Output yy Sept -4.30% -1.10% 4000000 Manufacturing Output Sept -3.90% -1.20%

Opening Bell Opening Trade Deficit - RBI Q1 -46.2bln $ -35.2bln $

Trade Deficit Govt - USD Aug 11.01 bln $ 10.86 bln $ 31,59,830

2000000 13,70,347

WPI Food yy Sept 9.80% 7.47%

9,57,753

9,12,703 8,62,939 WPI Fuel yy Sept -8.27% 5.98% 7,53,249 WPI Inflation yy Sept 0.16% 0.33% 0 WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy Sept -0.84% -0.42% 8-Nov 11-Nov 13-Nov 14-Nov 15-Nov 18-Nov NSE Derivative

Corporate Action Tracker Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) [not updated] Security name Action Ex Date Record Date Status Price (|)

Real Estate 9.8 Exide Industries Dividend 18-Nov-19 19-Nov-19 1.60 Banks 9.3 Essel Propack Dividend 19-Nov-19 20-Nov-19 1.25 Auto 8.9 Metals 6.1 Dividend 20-Nov-19 21-Nov-19 1.50 Mid Cap 6.1 Navneet Education Dividend 20-Nov-19 21-Nov-19 2.50 PSU 5.5 Amara Raja Batteries Dividend 21-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 6.00 Healthcare 5.4 BSE Small Cap 4.3 Dividend 21-Nov-19 23-Nov-19 1.25 FMCG 2.8 Balrampur Chini Mills Dividend 21-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 2.50 Oil & Gas 2.7

Cochin Shipyard Dividend 21-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 1.63 Power 0.4

IT 0.0 Research Equity Retail Dividend 21-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 1.00 Capital Goods -0.8 – Dividend 21-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 52.00 Consumer Durables -1.7 Sun TV Dividend 21-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 2.50 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Symphony Dividend 21-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 2.00 (%) Action Construction Buyback NA Ongoing 125.00 GE Shipping Buyback NA Ongoing 306.00

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Key News for Today Company/ News View Impact

Industry Telecom Both and Vodafone has We believe that this move will be positive announced that they would raise tariffs for the industry as the rate have been on from December, 2019. While the quantum decline trend since the last 3-4 years. A | is unknown, the reason is for sustainability 10/month hike in gross ARPU will boost iven the stressed income statements and the ’s consolidated balance sheets since the last couple of annualised topline and reported by 7% and 

years due price cuts by new operators 20%, respectively i.e. Adding ~| 2700 crore to EBITDA. For Bharti Airtel, A | 10/month hike in gross ARPU will boost the Vodafone Idea’s consolidated annualised topline and reported EBITDA by 3.3% and 5%, respectively i.e. adding ~| 2400 crore to EBITDA

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Ashoka Ashoka Buildcon's (ABL) subsidiary Ashoka ABL' order book stands at | 7,485 crore as Buildcon Concessions Ltd (ACL) has emerged as the of Q2FY20 and the management has lowest bidder for a ~40 km stretch from guided for | 4,000-6,000 crore in FY20E. Kandi to Ramsanpalle in Telangana under The new order would further improve order the Bharatmala Pariyojana. The bid project book visibility of the company. ABL holds cost is | 1,000 crore ~61% stake in ACL. Also, with this order from NHAI, it seems that the ordering pipeline has started opening up which is positive for road based developers

Auto Sector Media reports state that steel companies While demand stays challenged for the have lowered prices for auto companies by auto space, any additional support on the upto ₹6,000 per ton i.e. 11-14% for H2FY20 margins front would be welcome news and  help mitigate impact of negative operating leverage. Tata Steel Tata Steel has outlined a 4 step proposal Through its proposed transformation for transformation programme to build a programme, Tata Steel Europe is initially stronger and more sustainable business in targeting a positive cash flow by the end of Europe. The programme is focussed on a) its financial year ending March 2021. It is Increasing sales of higher value steels by also aiming for an EBITDA margin of improving product mix and focus. b) around 10% throughout the market cycle. Efficiency gains by optimising production On an indicative basis, based on full year processes. c) Lowering employement 2019 revenue figures, this would equate to costs, leading to an estimated reduction in £750 million in EBITDA. With improved employee numbers of up to 3000 across earnings and cash flows, Tata Steel Europe Tata Steel Europe's operations, about two- will be a financially self-sustaining business thirds of which are to expected to be office- able to invest in asset reliability and based roles. d) Reduction of procurement improvements while also servicing its costs through smarter sourcing and financial obligations to its lenders and strengthening cooperation with companies shareholders in Tata Steel group.

Accelya Accelya Solutions India announced that the Vista Equity Patners have informed Accelya Solutions shareholders of its ultimate holding Solutions India Limited that it will comply company - Accelya Topco including with the mandatory open offer related Warburg Pincus, have, on 15 November, requirements. The price of the offer is not 2019, entered into an agreement for the yet decided. sale of the shares and ownership of Accelya Topco to Aurora UK Bidco, a private company established under the laws of Jersey, which is owned and controlled by Vista Equity Partners (Vista), a leading investment firm focused on enterprise software, data and technology- enabled businesses. Key developments (Continued…)

 Cadila has announced the second Phase III trial (DREAM - D) of Desidustat, an investigational new drug, targeted at treating anaemia in dialysis dependent CKD patients. The study will be a multicentre (50-60 sites in India), randomized, active controlled clinical trial to evaluate the efficacy & safety of Desidustat tablet versus Epoetin alpha injection  Brickwork Ratings India has downgraded the credit rating of Zee Entertainment’s 6% Cumulative Redeemable Non-Convertible Preference shares aggregating | 1210.16 crore from AAA to AA+. It also downgraded Zee Entertainment’s issuer rating to AA+ from AAA  As per media reports, MRPL is expanding the capacity of its refinery from 16 MMTPA to 18 MMTPA

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Key developments (Continued…)  The domestic air traffic for October 2019 was at 12.31 million passengers compared to 11.84 million passengers in the same month last year, a jump of 3.98%  Media reports say that Tata Motors would be supplying 500 units of its electric vehicles (400 units of Tigor XR, 100 units of upcoming Nexon) to Bangalore based fleet operator Lithium Urban Technologies Pvt Ltd  According to media sources, Yes Bank has option to extend November 30 deadline on the binding offer worth | 8500 crore (US$1.2 billion). The bank has been awaiting clarity from RBI as deal would lead to substantial stake in bank.  According to media sources, private equity firm Carlyle has launched a block deal to sell around 3% stake in SBI Life Insurance at | 940 per share (| 2820 crore). Post block deal, Carlyle would hold 6% stake in SBI Life Insurance  As per media sources, the IT sector may shed 30000 to 40000 mid-level employees for pyramid rationalisation  Media sources indicate that several organisations under the banner of Jagrata Mahila Suraksha Samaj have staged a protest against microfinance companies on allegation of harassing female borrower, charging higher interest rate & other malpractices. & Ujjivan are among microfinance companies having exposure in the state

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Nifty Daily Chart Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks ended a lacklustre session on a flat note as the Nifty lost 0.1% to close at 11885. Nifty midcap and small cap indices relatively outperformed, indicating broader market participation amid range bound activity. In the coming session, we expect Nifty futures to witness continuance of stock specific action. Hence, intraday pullback towards 11922- 11945 should be used to create intraday short position for target of 11875. Going ahead, we expect prolonged consolidation in the broad range of 11700- 12000 in upcoming weeks, that will help the weekly stochastic oscillator to cool off the overbought situation (currently at 81) formed due to past six week’s 940 points rally. In turn this will make market healthy as we do not expect index to breach the key support threshold of 11700-11600. Therefore we believe, the ongoing breather should not be structurally construed as negative. Instead it should be capitalised on as an incremental buying opportunity in quality cyclical stocks.

Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Index/Stocks Trend Close S1 S2 R1 R2 Nifty 50 Intraday Short Term SENSEX Negative 40284.2 40158 40030 40478 40670 Trend Range Bound Range Bound Nifty 50 Negative 11884.5 11852 11820 11930 11978 Support 11840-11800 11700 ACC Ltd Positive 1491.2 1483 1473 1506 1519 Resistance 11910-11945 12000 Ltd Positive 724.1 717 708 730 734 20 day EMA 11786 HDFC Positive 2239.0 2219 2199 2250 2261 200 day EMA 11336 SBI Positive 325.0 322 320 328 332

HDFC Bank Ltd Negative 1262.7 1255 1246 1275 1288 Advances/Declines Maruti Suzuki Ltd Negative 7105.1 7061 7017 7163 7221 Tata Motors Neutral 170.2 170 168 173 174 Advances Declines Unchanged M&M Ltd Negative 573.4 569 565 580 587 BSE 1169 1397 205 Ltd Negative 3152.3 3125 3097 3203 3253 NSE 843 1013 104

TCS Negative 2151.0 2138 2124 2177 2202 Infosys Negative 709.9 702 695 713 717 Daily Technical Calls

Cipla Positive 459.0 454 449 468 477 Daily Technical Calls 1 Buy Tata Steel in the range of 1398.00-1406.0 ONGC Negative 133.5 132 131 135 137 Negative 1460.1 1448 1436 1479 1498 2 Buy REC in the range of 743.00-745.00 Bharti Airtel Positive 411.2 395 380 424 436 All recommendations of Oct Future DLF Positive 216.5 212 208 219 222

See Momentum Pick for more details

Nifty Call – Put Strike (Number of shares in lakh) – November 2019 Intraday Derivative Strategy

i) Hindalco 11500 22 6 Buy HINDAL NOV Fut at | 195.00-196.00 11600 23 3 CMP: 194.5 11700 18 4 Target 1: 197.2 Target 2: 199.8 11800 20 14 Stop Loss: 193.8 11900 20 15 12000 9 24 12100 2 13 ii) InterGlobe Aviation 12200 3 17 Sell INTAVI NOV Fut at | 1455.00-1456.00 12300 1 13 CMP: 1457 Target 1: 1445.5 Target 2: 1430.5 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Stop Loss: 1465.5 Put Call

See Derivatives view for more details

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Results/Events Calendar

04 November 05 November 06 November 07 November 08 November 09 November Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Persistent, MRPL , EIH Limited, Titan, DivisExide Industries,Cipla,Somany GSK Consumer,PGCIL,P&G HealthGAIL,GSPL,BOB,Dlink,MBL Amara Raja Wabco, HT Media ,Greaves Cotton Bosch, Avadh Sugar, Fortis BPCL, United Breweries ,Sobha,MRF J.K Cement HDFC, VST Industries Godrej Properties, KSB Ltd Tata Steel, Brigade,Taj GVK Citi Union Bank, HPCL Nestle,INEOS Styrolution,FDC MM Forging TCI Express, Vardhman SpecialAjanta Pharma, Star Cement Kalpataru Power,,Lupin , , IPCA ,Tata Comm,M&MNTPC, Grindwell Norton, NCC Hester Bios, First Source Dwarikesh Sugar,Amber EnterGSPL, Bharat Forge, KEC Int Swiss Glascoat

11 November 12 November 13 November 14 November 15 November 16 November Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Motherson Sumi, ENIL, NMDCVA Tech, Sun TV,AIG Eng Pidilite Ind, Goodyear India,Ircon Apollo Hosp,NBCC,Glenmark US Import Price Index MoM 0 ,NHPC ABFRL, Abbott India BHEL, Cera, Ashoka,Bata HEG,Airtel, CESC,Page CH New Home Price MoM 0 Embassy REIT, Shankara India,Adani Gas Prima Plastics, Emmbi Vedanta,Vodafone Idea 0 0 NHPC, Hindalco, Coal India Aurobindo Pharma Thermax, Dixon Tech, Rites NCL Industries, Time Techno0 0 Kanpur Plastipack,Phoenix MillsNatco Pharma Lemon Tree Hotels,Cadila HC KNR Const,PNC Infra,ONGC 0 0

18 November 19 November 20 November 21 November 22 November 23 November Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday JP Industrial Production MoM EC Construction Output MoM JP Exports YoY US Initial Jobless Claims Markit Eurozone Services PMI 0 CH FDI Investment YoY EC Consumer Confidence Japan Trade Balance US Existing home Sales Markit US Services PMI 0 0 US Building Permits JP Imports YoY 0 US Manufacturing PMI 0 0 0 China Loan Prime Rate 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 November 26 November 27 November 28 November 29 November 30 November Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 0 Japan PPI Services YoY China Industrial Profits YoY Japan Retail Sales MoM India GDP YoY CH Manufacturing PMI 0 US Retail Inventories MoM US Initial Jobless Claims EC Unemployment Rate JP Jobless Rates CH Non-Manufacturing PMI 0 US New Home Sales US GDP Price Index 0 JP Industrial Prod MoM 0 0 0 0 0 EC CPI MoM 0 0 0 0 0 JP Consumer Confidence Index 0

02 December 03 December 04 December 05 December 06 December 07 December Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday US Construction Spend MoM JP Monetary Base YoY Markit India PMI Services US Initial Jobless Claims US Unemployment Rate US Consumer Credit Japan Capital Spending YoY EC PPI YoY EC Markit Services PMI US Trade Balance US Wholesale Inventory MoM China Foreign Reserves Japan Vehicle Sales YoY 0 0 US Factory Orders 0 0 US Markit Mfg PMI 0 0 India RBI Repurchase Rate 0 0 0 0 0 India RBI Reverse Repo Rate0 0

Major Economic Events this Week Bulk Deals Es* Price Date Event Country Period Actual Expected Company Client Name Type No. of shares (|) 18-Nov FDI Investment YoY CH Oct 7.40% 3.80% BSE* Diaminesq Finorga (India) Private Ltd Buy 447,600 115.0 Date Event Country Period Expected Previous Diaminesq Alkyl Amines Chemicals Sell 2,977,996 115.1 19-Nov Construction Output MoM EC Sep - -0.5% Jubilant Jubilant Stock Holding Pvt. LtdSell 1160000 493 20-Nov One Year Loan Prime Rate CH Nov 4.2% 4.2% 20-Nov Trade Balance JP Oct ¥301.0B -¥123.0B NSE* 20-Nov Exports YoY JP Oct -7.5% -5.2%

20-Nov Imports YoY JP Oct -15.4% -1.5% 21-Nov Initial Jobless Claims US Nov-16 218k 225k

21-Nov Existing Home Sales MoM US Oct 2.1% -2.2% 21-Nov Consumer Confidence EC Nov A -7.30 -7.60 22-Nov Markit US Services PMI US Nov P 51.20 50.60 Recent Releases Date Report Nov 18, 2019 Telecom Sector Update Nov 18, 2019 Result Update –Ashoka Buildcon Nov 18, 2019 Result Update –KNR Constructions Nov 18, 2019 Result Update –PNC Infratech Nov 18, 2019 Result Update –

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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]

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