What to Make of the Recent Grenell- Facilitated Agreements Between Kosovo and Serbia

Policy Note No. 03/2020

What to make of the recent Grenell- facilitated agreements between Kosovo and Serbia

- April 2020

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Policy Note 03/2020

What to make of the recent Grenell-facilitated agreements between Kosovo and Serbia

Author: Barbara Matias*

April 2020

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*Affiliated International Research Fellow

WHAT TO MAKE OF THE RECENT GRENELL-FACILITATED AGREEMENTS BETWEEN KOSOVO AND SERBIA

BACKGROUND Since its launch in March 2011, the EU- questions by examining the agreements facilitated Dialogue on the normalization of reached between Kosovo and Serbia and relations between Kosovo and Serbia has helmed by the US, from their timing to the had achievements and losses, as well as not-so-transparent content, and from the moments of success and of tension. The political parties’ reactions to the ambiguous Dialogue’s volatility has been felt throughout way forward. - talks are often halted or even suspending given regional or domestic developments. A REVIVED US INVOLVEMENT CLOSES Most recently, the 100% tariff imposed by the OUT 2019: GRENELL’S BALKAN Kosovar government on Serbian goods as a PLAYGROUND reaction to its lobby against Kosovo’s Interpol Ever since the 1999 NATO intervention in membership led to strained diplomatic Yugoslavia which ended the Kosovo War, the relations between the two countries. The United States has been a reliable ally to the Dialogue has been suspended since the tariff Republic of Kosovo. Diplomatic relations and imposition in November 2018, and the light military support through the KFOR mandate at the end of the tunnel suddenly got dimmer. have been significant, as well as important In parallel and since then, talks on for Kosovo’s standing in the international territorial exchange between the two Balkan community. One of Kosovo’s main national neighbors persisted, government talks objectives is European integration, which bracing for a new coalition deal were necessarily passes through another key ally happening, and back in Brussels a new of the country, the European Union. As such, Commission was taking office and laying out the EU has been heavily invested in the its agenda. It was amidst this disheveled country and in achieving normalized relations context that the United States signaled with Serbia. The Dialogue on the renewed involvement in Kosovo-Serbia normalization of relations between Kosovo normalization of relations. US Ambassador to and Serbia was instituted by the EU in 2011, Germany, Richard Grenell, was appointed prompting initial talks on technical topics of Special Envoy to the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue regional cooperation (i.e. in October 2019 and has since reached two telecommunications, air traffic, customs, civil important, albeit not entirely transparent, records, freedom of movement) to trickier agreements between the two countries – political topics (i.e. Kosovar representation in firstly restoring air links, and secondly regional organisms, exchange of liaison restoring railways and building highways. This offices). The 15-point Brussels agreement of revived US engagement brewed a national 2013 formally signaled both countries political crisis in Kosovo, with Kurti’s short- agreed to undertake mutual efforts to lived governments ousted and the tariffs normalize relations under the auspices of the formally lifted in their entirety. What is to be EU. As follows, the EU-facilitated dialogue is said about this revived American not necessarily about reconciliation between engagement in the region? Why is it Kosovo and Serbia, but rather motivated by happening now and how has it, arguably the common goal of EU integration given the wickedly, played out at the national unequivocal normalized relations government level? And how has it been precondition. Motivated by a distant pursuit received by other stakeholders, namely the of EU membership and based on small EU? This Policy Note will tap into these agreements along a rocky road, the dialogue

4 is intrinsically volatile given the non-existent accepting such a power shift in mediating diplomatic relations and non-recognition of authority to the US, arguably conceding to the Kosovo by Serbia. Inevitably, mediated dialogue’s ineffectual standing point, and the negotiations have been paused and often US was assigning much more efforts to the suspended in reaction to damaging country. In turn, this power shift propelled developments. Most recently, the 27 EU reactions in the national government’s Ambassadors appointed a new special envoy differing coalition political parties, as well as to the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue1. Miroslav major changes in the country’s actual Lajčák, former Slovak foreign minister, s to political landscape, with Kurti’s government start his mandate on 2 April with view of becoming the shortest-lived in Kosovo reaching normalization of relations between history, only standing for 51 days before not the two neighboring countries, under a passing the no-confidence of 25 March legally-binding agreement supporting 2020. It can be argued that, in light of such a regional stability. major turn of events in the past two months Regardless of this fresh move from since the US revived its engagement, the EU Brussels, the outcome of which is still to be was more propelled to revive its own assessed, dialogue talks between Kosovo engagement and means of handling the and Serbia as mediated by the EU have been dialogue and tensions. Indeed, the quest for formally suspended since October 2019. regional stability took a turn in recent Serbia’s repeated blockage of Kosovo’s months, namely rooted in a quest for Interpol membership prompted the Kosovo’s sociopolitical stability, and is imposition of a 100% tariff on Serbian goods suddenly in a bigger need to be restored. imported into the neighboring country, a The transfer of negotiating or mediation move reprimanded by the EU and the US. authority started to come about in October Former Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj 2019. The United States decided to step up even stated back in November 2018 that the its game – President Trump appointed tariff shall not be lifted until negotiations are Richard Grenell, US Ambassador to Germany, held on principles of mutual recognition. as Special Presidential Envoy for Kosovo and Separately, the Kosovar population and Serbia Peace Negotiations2. It was a surprise government were also facing proposals of appointment and a clear signal that lands swaps between Serbia and Kosovo to Washington DC is committed and renewing ethnically homogenize their countries, a attention to the decades-long conflict at the proposal which also turned some heads in heart of the Balkan Peninsula. Moreover, this the EU and key Member States. The political move followed the August 2019 dialogue’s volatility had indeed reached a appointment of Matthew Palmer as the US tipping point and suspension of talks was Special Representative to the Western long-lasting. As a result of the stalled Balkans. In a speech in Prishtina on dialogue process, a transfer of negotiating November 1st, Palmer stated that ‘’My authority seemed to have emerged from the appointment as the Secretary of State’s EU to the newly-appointed US special envoy Special Representative for the Western to the Kosovo-Serbia. It therefore signaled Balkans and President Trump’s appointment two major turning points: the EU was of Ambassador Grenell as Special

2 White House, ‘’President Donald J. Trump Announces 1 EU Observer, ‘’Former Slovak minister to become EU Intent to Appoint Individual to a Key Administration envoy on Kosovo-Serbia’’, 1 April 2020, via Post’’, 3 October 2019, via: https://euobserver.com/tickers/147936 https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential- actions/president-donald-j-trump-announces-intent- appoint-individual-key-administration-post-6/

Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo ‘’was in the best interest of Kosovo and its Dialogue underscores – if there was any economy, and the desire to attract new doubt – the United States is present, businesses’’5, argued Grenell to national focused, and ready to help. (…) Resolving authorities. once and for all the relationship between Indeed, while the EU has a direct stake Kosovo and Serbia through full normalization and real interest in normalized relations - for remains a U.S. strategic priority’’3. Building both are hopeful candidate countries located on Palmer’s role and stated representation of amongst EU Member States and geo- US commitment to the Western Balkans, the strategically important for European security appointment of Richard Grenell as special - the US is arguably a more neutral external envoy to the dialogue came with a bang. partner in the region. Notwithstanding its Known as a Trump loyalist, Grenell was evident ally role to Kosovo and proven high tasked with improving the normalization of commitment to the region ever since the relations between Kosovo and Serbia. His Yugoslav wars in the 1990s, the US does not message was clear: both Kosovo and Serbia look to integrate Kosovo or Serbia into its should focus on economic development, Union or programmes like the EU; neither prospects of new jobs and improved does it have external borders at the mercy of prosperity as the incentive to normalize the Balkans' tense ethnic divides. All of relations. Instead of dwelling on political sudden, a welcomed cooperation momentum obstacles and historic divides, priority should was brought to Kosovo-Serbia talks, one be given to economic dynamism of both firstly motivated by economic growth and, countries to enable growth – ‘’We are coming secondly or in collateral, motivated by to connect you. I have no agenda, I will not prospects of EU integration. This new put pressure on you, I want to connect you so momentum triggered by US involvement has that your economies grow, so that more realized two letters of intent and/or opportunities are created for young people to agreements between Kosovo and Serbia so stay here and to have hope. I am trying to far - their occurrence, content and way focus on creating a dynamic in the economy forward are examined next. while leaving the politics to you”4, declared Grenell in a joint press conference with TWO AGREEMENTS AND A WHOLE LOT Presidents Thaci and Vucic. Grenell has OF UNCERTAINTY avidly encouraged both countries to focus on Insofar Grenell’s short appointment has, the potential for economic growth instead of objectively, incited the stalled dialogue fueling obstacles to constructive talks. Key between the Republic of Kosovo and the examples here are: on the one hand Kosovo’s Republic of Serbia. It has also incited major 100% tariff on Serbian imports, and on the tensions in Kosovo’s political scene, which other hand Serbia’s campaigning for will be explored in-depth later. Through recognition-withdrawal by sovereign states Grenell, mutually-beneficial agreements have worldwide. Dropping the tariffs, for instance, been reached regardless of stark political

3 US Embassy in Prishtina, ‘’Special Representative for the 4 Euractiv, ‘’US envoy tells Serbia, Kosovo to make Western Balkans Matthew Palmer – Speech in Pristina’’, concessions, cooperate’’, 24 January 2020, via: 1 November 2019, via: https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/ https://xk.usembassy.gov/special-representative-for- us-envoy-tells-serbia-kosovo-to-make-concessions- the-western-balkans-matthew-palmer/ cooperate/. 5 AP News, ‘’Trump’s envoy urges Kosovo to drop taxes on Serbian goods’’, 4 February 2020, via: https://apnews.com/a9e21c6a6e2040358ae26715dd04 7225.

6 obstacles at play. Details and political debate ‘’is leaving us behind’’8 and implementation timelines for either one of should be left to local actors with the the agreements remain to be known, a fact appropriate knowhow. His aim is to stimulate only made worse given the fact that the the region’s economy and provide job original letters were not immediately opportunities for young people - much in line released. Notwithstanding, the signed letters with President Trump’s American domestic of intent already positively reveal that agenda as well. communication ties between the two The agreement determines that no countries are not entirely closed off even if added taxes, fees or charges will be applied the EU-facilitated dialogue is currently to the new operating direct flights between suspended. the two capitals, and also that the ‘’responsibility for implementing the 1. Restoring air traffic between flight and ensuring its safe operation Kosovo and Serbia (20 January lies with the Kosovo Civil Aviation 2020, US Embassy in Berlin). Authority and KFOR’’9. The Kosovar Direct flights between Kosovo and Serbia representative at the signing ceremony, were stopped when the war broke out in Berisha, disclosed that several meetings with 1998. An achievement was reached on all relevant actors were held at the US Monday 20 January 2020, when Serbia and Embassy in Berlin to broker the deal. Berisha Kosovo signed a letter of intent with German further explained that Kosovo’s agreement airline Lufthansa on the resumption of direct was green lit ‘’by the outgoing Minister of commercial flights between Prishtina and Transport a member of the AAK, party of Belgrade6. The US Embassy in Berlin hosted outgoing Prime Minister Haradinaj’’10. KFOR the signing ceremony, with the Director as a singing party to the agreement can be General of the Civil Aviation Authority of tied to the KFOR-Thaci agreement on Kosovo, East Berisha, the State Secretary of Northern Kosovo, which only recently came to the Ministry of Economy of Serbia, Milun light by currently-interim Prime Minister Albin Trivunac, the Managing Director of Kurti. According to the latter, the 2013 Eurowings, Michael Knitter, and finally Robert agreement halts activities and missions by C. O'Brien, United States National Security the Kosovo Security Force in the northern Advisor. It was a tri-partite signed agreement part of the country and gives control of it to under the US wing. Host Grenell, US KFOR. The agreement is said to be signed by Ambassador to Germany, reiterated that ‘’the Thaci and the former NATO Secretary-General key to reaching the agreement signed on Rasmussen. Kurti’s criticism does not go to Monday was ignoring the longstanding the agreement in itself, with the politician political conflicts between the two countries even stating he deeply understands the and focusing instead on the potential for importance of ‘’NATO in ensuring the full economic ties’’7. The US diplomat argues that territorial integrity of the Republic and its

6 Prishtina Insight, ‘’Grenell visits Kosovo and Serbia’’, 24 9 Prishtina Insight, ‘’BIRN secures documents relating to January 2020, via: https://prishtinainsight.com/grenell- air, road and rail connections with Serbia’’, 4 March 2020, visits-kosovo-and-serbia/. via: https://prishtinainsight.com/birn-secures- 7 New York Times, ‘’Serbia-Kosovo Flights to Resume documents-relating-to-air-road-and-rail-connections- Under U.S.-Brokered Deal’’, 20 January 2020, via: with-serbia/?fbclid=IwAR0jIHuoqL_HpGfFq- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/20/world/europe/s bUuqiyygVrkllBo7lXrRdTytm2gDETBegu28TBfFU. erbia-kosovo-flights-resume.html 10 Prishtina Insight, ‘’Details of Kosovo-Serbia flight deal 8 Ibid. revealed’’, 20 January 2020, via: https://prishtinainsight.com/details-of-kosovo-serbia- flight-deal-revealed/.

7 citizens’’11. His criticism rather goes to achievement. To begin with, the letters of Thaci’s abuse of power in signing such a deal, intent were not immediately disclosed until alleging that he ‘’violated three articles the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network concerning, allegedly, "the transfer of (BIRN) recently was able to get a hold of them sovereignty, ratification of international from President Thaci’s office, six weeks after agreements and an article pertaining to the the first agreement on airspace was signed, removal of the Kosovo President’’12. On a in early March - ''After seeking the documents more logistical front, Berisha also explained for almost two months, on Wednesday BIRN that passengers on the forthcoming direct obtained two ‘Statements of Intent’ signed by flights between Prishtina and Belgrade would officials from Kosovo’s Ministry of use national IDs, as agreed by both countries Infrastructure and one ‘Letter of Intent’ in EU-facilitated talks on Integrated Border signed by the Kosovo Civil Aviation Management and use of documentation for Authority''16. As such, the public or civil travel. society organizations were not able to Reactions from the international properly oversee or monitor the content of community followed suite. NATO Secretary the agreement signed. Transparency has General Jens Stoltenberg hailed the deal ‘’as definitely not ruled the negotiating process. an important step which will make the Secondly, some expert point out, Berisha circulation of people and goods easier and noted, that the agreement can be perceived faster within the Western Balkans region"13. as signed with Lufthansa as a facilitator NATO’s KFOR, as the letter of intent reads, organization, rather than between Kosovo ‘’retains the authority in the airspace over and Serbia. The agreement does not, Kosovo, pursuant to internationally necessarily carry a bilateral nature. Lastly, recognized agreements on NATO’s Mission in and most strikingly, there is distrust on Kosovo’’14. O'Brien, present at the signing, Serbia’s willingness to live up to the boasted the deal as “historic’’ and Grenell agreement. Marko Djuric, head of the himself praised the President’s role in the Serbian government office for Kosovo, achievement, tweeting that "President publicly stated that the deal on direct Donald Trump once again led us to an historic commercial flights would only be operational victory"15. after the 100% tariff on Serbian goods is Although there is a seemingly widespread dropped, to which Kosovar representative in consensus on the constructive nature of his the signing ceremony in Berlin responded “Its agreement, especially negotiated when EU- senseless to sign a deal that will not be facilitated talks are suspended, there is implemented. (…) I don’t know for what plenty of uncertainty clouding the reason they signed then”17. Serbia’s lack of

11 Exit News, ‘’Kurti Hints at Impeachment of Thaçi Over 14 Prishtina Insight, ‘’BIRN secures documents relating to Secret NATO Deal’’, 26 February 2020, via air, road and rail connections with Serbia’’, 4 March 2020. 15 https://exit.al/en/2020/02/26/kurti-hints-at- Twitter, 20 January 2020, available via: impeachment-of-thaci-over-secret-nato-deal/. https://twitter.com/richardgrenell/status/12192422536 12 B92, ‘’Kurti reveals details of a secret agreement 31283202?lang=en. 16 between Thaci and the NATO Alliance’’, 26 February Prishtina Insight, ‘’BIRN secures documents relating to air, road and rail connections with Serbia’’, 4 March 2020. 2020, via 17 Prishtina Insight, ‘’Details of Kosovo-Serbia flight deal https://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2020 revealed’’, 20 January 2020. &mm=02&dd=26&nav_id=108019. 13 NATO, ‘’Statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on direct flights between Belgrade and Pristina’’, 20 January 2020, via: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_172807.ht m.

8 transparency going into the US-brokered a year’’18. Indeed both country leaders deals is a cautioning issue for those analyzing praised the letters of intent on the nature and success of the new, transportation, with Thaci labelling it unexpected developments. ‘’another milestone’’ and “great step” toward reaching a final mutually-agreed deal on 2. Restoring railway and developing normalizing relations and regional peace19. highway connections between With an emphasis on the improved flow of Kosovo and Serbia (14 February goods and people, Grenell thanked ‘’good 2020, Munich Security friends President Vucic and President Thaci Conference) for their continued engagement and The second agreement recently brokered by commitment to progress in the region’’20. US officials was that of letters of intent However, once again, transparency has produced on restoring railway links and not been a forte in the handling of the building road links between Kosovo and negotiating process. Upon getting the letters Serbia. This deal builds on the first and once of intent from the President’s Office at the more put high-level Serbian and Kosovar beginning of March, BIRN noted that the representatives side by side in a US- railway agreement lacked an official facilitated setting. As with flights, there is no government stamp or letterhead, and ‘’no Belgrade-Pristina train line and roads are details regarding financing or dates for poorly maintained. completion’’21 were laid out in the text. It Grenell had mentioned in late January, definitely renders Kosovo’s political when the first agreement happened, that commitment a bit blurry. Such absence of expert-level talks were also taking place on transparency was particularly noted and rail links between the two neighboring condemned by Kosovo’s new, and indeed countries. No further details were released recently toppled, Prime Minister, Albin Kurti. until an agreement was announced in mid- Kurti - officially appointed in early February February. Present at the signing ceremony on and officially ousted and occupying the role the sidelines of the Munich Security as interim PM since 25 March - complained Conference were a delegation from the that those representing Kosovo for both Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport of agreements were under the wing of the Kosovo, and Marko Djuric, head of the former government, and therefore not linked Kosovo office of the Serbian government. or green lit by the, at the time, current Also in attendance were Presidents Thaci and incumbent, himself. This authority gap is Vucic and Philip Kosnett, US Ambassador to especially remarkable given that Kurti also Kosovo. International media noted that had also been in attendance at the Munich ‘’While the deals are mostly symbolic at this Security Conference, yet wasn’t presented stage, the signing ceremony on Friday with the content of the agreement or marked a rare moment of cooperation authorized to sign despite his official role as between two leaders who have refused Prime Minister of one of the contracting state return to the negotiation table for more than parties. He noted that, while he certainly

18 Al Jazeera, ‘’'Another milestone': Kosovo and Serbia 20 US Embassy in Serbia, ‘’Special Presidential Envoy sign rail, road deals’’, 15 February 2020, via: Grenell on Serbia-Kosovo Rail and Highway Agreements’’, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/milestone- 14 February 2020, via: https://rs.usembassy.gov/special- kosovo-serbia-sign-rail-road-deals- presidential-envoy-grenell-statement-on-serbia-kosovo- 200215021536359.html. rail-and-highway-agreements/ 19 Twitter, 14 February 2020, available via: 21 Prishtina Insight, ‘’BIRN secures documents relating to https://twitter.com/HashimThaciRKS/status/122824472 air, road and rail connections with Serbia’’, 4 March 2020. 0796815366.

9 supports efforts to upgrade infrastructures Kurti's coalition partner, the Democratic and advance good neighborly relations, League of Kosovo (LDK), who wanted to especially in rail connectivity being useful for abolish the tariffs ‘’immediately, his qualitative education plans, "it is completely’’24. LDK did not bulge for they are nevertheless very important that the process eager to keep good relations with the be transparent, resulting from genuine government in Washington DC, which was negotiations, and in full compliance with the clear in stating the need to abolish the tariffs sovereignty and laws of the country, as soon as possible, rather than gradually. As economic priorities"22. For this reason, such, the government was unable to appease former PM and current interim PM Albin Kurti the US’ request and sanctions ensued - on always showed a cynical posture to the March 13 2020 an American foreign aid recently-brokered talks and signed agency tied to the US Congress announced it agreements. would be suspending two of its standing For instance, Prime Minister Kurti’s agenda programs with the Republic of Kosovo, until clearly laid out fighting corruption through the tariff issue was finally resolved. The local actors and domestic issues (i.e. rule of Millennium Challenge Corporation stated law, attracting investments) as priorities, that “The United States’ position regarding rather than channeling all resources and Kosovo’s tariffs against goods from Serbia is energy into the dialogue with Serbia. When it clear. Lifting these tariffs will improve came to the ongoing US-propelled talks with Kosovo’s economy and help reduce poverty Serbia, Kurti had very limited contact during through economic growth. Until Kosovo’s his tenure ship as head of Kosovo’s cabinet. tariff issue is resolved, MCC will pause The topic of the Kosovo-imposed tariffs implementation of the threshold on Serbia has proven to be the most divisive program and development of the proposed and most important one for the recent compact program in Kosovo”25. In the United political developments in Kosovo. States being a main, arguably the most Back in January, upon his appointment, important, state ally to Kosovo, the tariff Grenell publicly stated at a press conference issue was early on expected to impact Kurti’s that ‘’business leaders in both countries governmental priorities and political agreed that the tariff must be dropped’’ in gambles. efforts to improve connectivity23. In fact, how As a result of this escalated war of words the tariff issue evolved under Kurti shaped up and economic retaliations matched with the to the key challenge for his leadership and differing opinions between Kurti’s agenda. Since March 2020, the US started to Vetevendosje and his junior party in exert more pressure on Kosovo to remove the governing coalition LDK, the latter proposed tariffs imposed in late 2018, considering a no-confidence vote. The government was them a fundamental obstacle to the country’s successfully toppled with 82 votes in favour, economic prosperity as well as not fueling 34 against, and 1 abstention26. The vote and good neighborly relations. Prime Minister eventual fall of the government in a time of Kurti proposed a government plan to particular national and global strife caused gradually remove the tariffs with some partial by the COVID-19 pandemic was met with conditions, yet this was not supported by deep mistrust by citizens, institutions and

22 Al Jazeera, ‘’'Another milestone': Kosovo and Serbia https://prishtinainsight.com/kurti-apologises-for-failure- sign rail, road deals’’, 15 February 2020. to-implement-tariff-plans/. 23 Prishtina Insight, ‘’Grenell visits Kosovo and Serbia’’, 24 25 Ibid. January 2020. 26 Balkan Insight, ‘’No-Confidence Vote Topples Kurti 24 Prishtina Insight, ‘’Kurti apologizes for failure to Govt in Kosovo’’, 25 March 2020, via https://balkaninsight.com/2020/03/25/no-confidence- implement tariff plans’’, 15 March 2020, via: vote-topples-kurti-govt-in-kosovo/.

10 international actors. In fact, protests had Richard Grenell’s persona in particular. As US ensued against the motion for a week, from Ambassador in Germany and formerly posted citizens locked inside their homes because of to the US Mission to the United Nations, the Coronavirus restrictive measures in Grenell materializes the transatlantic bind place. On 1 April, all tariffs on goods from and showcases mediation experience. His Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina were high-level standing and added impetus officially lifted27. This had been announced by certainly revived Kosovo-Serbia talks in their Kurti in March as a plan to gradually abolish ultimate goal of Euro-Atlantic integration. In the ever-mentioned tariffs, when he started contrast, some have condemned the choice by lifting the tax off raw materials. The final in view of his controversial nature, already abolishment move was praised by having experienced several gaffes in international actors, in particular by the EU’s European soil29. Similarly, what is to be made High Representative Josef Borrell who stated out of this sudden more active US that ‘’Regional cooperation is key as is participation in finding a lasting resolution to maintaining flow of goods, in particular in the Kosovo-Serbia conundrum? times of crisis COVID19’’28. Notwithstanding Grenell’s assertion that he Outgoing and incoming governments has no agenda, geopolitics is a power game aside, when will the letters of intent signed and agendas are a given. In point of fact, I start to be implemented? How will the talks argue that the lack of transparency to the materialize in practice in addition to in abovementioned process, on the recent paper? The way forward is more unclear and agreements signed and the respective vague by the day. available documents, pertains three layers: the domestic level of Kosovo, the UNCLEAR WAY FORWARD: WHAT TO international level of the US and the EU, and MAKE OF THE SUDDEN HIGH-LEVEL US the neighboring level of Serbia. ENGAGEMENT? Firstly, on the lack of transparency it can As promising as letters of intent and be argued that the wrong people were subsequent agreements are for economic involved in the US-brokered process and dynamism and cooperation, implemented agreement completion, particularly on the deals are lined up to be even more promising. Kosovo side. In addition, very little was As things stand, there is no real clarity on publicly disclosed about the content, let when commercial direct flights between alone the negotiating chips on the table for Prishtina and Belgrade would start running, the agreements. Only after civil society or when the railway and highway consecutively pressured the President’s infrastructures would see improvements. office for the original copies of the signed Amid the agreement fury and lack of agreements was the public made (more) transparency, many questions remain and aware of the conditions set and parties at many more arise. What is to be made out of stake. This signals extremely low Grenell’s appointment? Some have praised accountability to the citizens and low the move, not only for signaling a revamped confidence in the normalization of US engagement in the stalled dialogue and relations30. The main and only contact civil tense neighborly relations, but also for society and Kosovar citizens alike have with

27 Deutsche Welle, ‘’Kosovo lifts all tariffs from Serbian, 29 New York Magazine – Intelligencer, ‘’The Scariest Part Bosnian goods’’, 1 April 2020, via of Richard Grenell’s Appointment’’, 20 February 2020, via: https://www.dw.com/en/kosovo-lifts-all-tariffs-on- https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/richard- serbian-bosnian-goods/a-52975561. grenell-director-national-intelligence.html. 28 Ibid. 30 Balkan Insight, ‘’Buckle Up: Serbia-Kosovo Flight Deal a Wake-up Call for All’’, 22 January 2020

11 the letters of intent and/or agreements are prompted LDK to act faster with its motion of the accolade tweets by President Thaci and no-confidence as a means to salvage the President Vucic, former Prime Minister partnership. Haradinaj, and other country representatives Notwithstanding the government that will from the relevant Ministries. As follows, the be appointed after Kurti’s interim turn is over, role of the Presidential figure as commander a clearer way forward must definitely include of the process of normalizations of relations the new government. Kosovo’s cabinet is between Kosovo and Serbia is reinforced, equipped with a democratically-elected and despite Kosovo being a parliamentary is able to should inject a breath of fresh air democracy and MPs’ oversight over the into the Dialogue with Serbia, and therein Executive being a chief accountability enable progress on the path to normalized measure. When it comes to a potential final relations. deal, those poising themselves to be helming Secondly, there is a lack of transparency negotiating talks, mediated or not by from the two strategically invested international actors, are the two Presidents. international actors, the EU and the US. On In turn, Albin Kurti’s voice as elected Prime the EU’s side, the EU-facilitated dialogue Minister at the time of the agreements, was lacks clarity and real strategy underpinning cancelled out. This is particularly important in its progression. The EU may have integrated light of Kurti’s recent unveiling of the secret the requirement for normalizing relations into agreement between former NATO Secretary the accession negotiations with Serbia and General Rasmussen and then-Prime Minister into the Stabilization and Association Thaci, back in 201331. As noted in the Agreement (SAA) with Kosovo, yet a previous chapter, such an agreement is deficiency remains in the intended scope and argued by Kurti to go against national aims of a Dialogue final solution. sovereignty and should have been made Furthermore, the Dialogue has been stalled public. since 2018 and only now, in April 2020, did Kurti kept insisting and raising the EU seek to formally revive its engagement awareness on this lack of transparency by by appointing a new special envoy. The timing mentioning a secret land swap plan, devised of this move in light of the ongoing US- by the Kosovar and Serbian presidents. He dominance of the topic, could be grilled. argued such a plan and clear bilateral nature Nevertheless, revived engagement from the of talks could explain the hostilities his EU as a strategic partner in the region and to government is receiving. However, top US Kosovo as a hopeful member state, has diplomats engaged were quick to react with a cross-party support in the newborn Republic. joint statement dismissing this claim - ‘’The On the US’ side, President Trump is statement was signed by US Special Envoy bringing his business impetus to the Kosovo- for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, Richard Serbia peace process. As laid out by US Grenell, the US Ambassador to Kosovo, Philip Special Representative to the Western Kosnett, and the US Special Representative Balkans, Matthew Palmer, ‘’improved for the Western Balkans, Matthew Palmer’’32. relations and progress in talks with Serbia Adding the tariff issue to the mix, indeed open potentially lucrative and job-creating relations between Kurti and the US were investments all of Kosovo’s citizens can sorely deteriorating, which definitely

31 Balkan Insight, ‘’Kurti Seeks Kosovo President’s Sacking 32 Prishtina Insight, ‘’Secret land swap plan dismissed by Over ‘Secret’ NATO Deal’’, 26 February 2020, via: US’’, 27 March 2020, via https://balkaninsight.com/2020/02/26/kurti-seeks- https://prishtinainsight.com/secret-land-swap-plan- kosovo-presidents-sacking-over-secret-nato-deal/. dismissed-by-us/.

12 benefit from’’33. Regional, Kosovar and normalized relations and mutual recognition Serbian interests aside, what is the real and Kosovar recognition, but more so for intention for the revived US diplomatic President Trump to boast another efforts, especially out of the blue? The back- international win. to-back appointments of two Special Envoys Lastly, the lack of procedural indicate President Trump is looking for transparency in Serbia’s engagement in the another presidential win to prove his global process. While letters of intent have been soft power influence and successful run as produced, agreements signed and President. At a time when the EU is shuffling accompanying photo-ops delivered, Serbian its agenda and enlargement methodology authorities remain ambiguous as to their along with the newly-appointed von der Leyen commitment to compromising with Kosovo. Commission, the US might have seen a power Seeing the dialogue unblocked is certainly vacuum opportunity. As such, strategic positive for Serbia’s growth and economic moves were made to cover the vacuum with dynamism yet it does imply indulging a state a blanket of American leverage, and impede they do not recognize. For this reason, they dialogue talks between the two neighbors to seem to go back and forth along an awkward decay any further. Trump would certainly like road of complying with talks yet reiterating to be the one facilitating mutual recognition their non-recognition of Kosovo – ‘’We have a of the two countries. Looking back, President different stance on the recognition of Kosovo Trump has sought out flashy than America and Pristina. They want that accomplishments which impress the independence to be recognized, we don’t’’36. electorate and show real results – some Most pressingly, the 100% tariff imposed by examples include holding talks with North Kosovo is absolutely dismissed as foul-play Korean leader Kim Jong-un for the first time by Serbia, and certainly not accepted as in US history, ordering drone strikes on bargaining chip to Kosovo’s wishes that they Iranian major general Soliemani, and will only lift the tariff when Serbia recognizes proposing an Israel-Palestine plan pushing Kosovo’s independence or stops its lobby for for a two-state solution. As a matter of fact, in UN Member States to revoke recognition. the aftermath of the first Grenell-facilitated Furthermore, President Vucic did not agreement signed by Kosovo and Serbia, acknowledge Kosovo when addressing the Trump labelled it ‘’another win’’34, therein public after signing the agreement on showcasing the power of his administration’s restoring railway and highway links. He diplomacy. Grenell has already hinted that instead praised the agreement as objectively ‘’There are more announcements coming “important for the freedom of movement of soon because both sides are eager to move people, goods, capital, and service’’ and forward” 35, which implies US diplomatic thanked President Trump and US efforts under President Trump won’t be stalling anytime soon. For this reason, Grenell’s appointment could be construed as a push, not so much for Kosovo-Serbia

33 US Embassy in Prishtina, ‘’Special Representative for 35 European Western Balkans, ‘’Grenell urges new Kosovo the Western Balkans Matthew Palmer – Speech in government to abolish tariffs as soon as possible’’, 4 February Pristina’’, 1 November 2019. 2020, via: 34 Twitter, 21 January 2020, available via: https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2020/02/04/gren https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/12194336 ell-urges-new-kosovo-government-to-abolish-tariffs-as- 12753289216. soon-as-possible/. 36Euractiv, ‘’US envoy tells Serbia, Kosovo to make concessions, cooperate’’, 24 January 2020.

Ambassador Grenell for their facilitating normalization of relations process is certainly role37. welcomed. Nevertheless, it is important to flag ambiguities and make clear what is at CONCLUDING REMARKS stake. As things stand, there are (too) many All things added, the legality of the questions related to the sudden appointment agreements and talks themselves can be of Matthew Palmer and, especially, Richard contested. The US entered into historic talks Grenell, to facilitate a constructive with the two Presidents of each signing state, progression of good neighborly relations and seemingly discarded the Cabinet´s role. between the two sovereign states. The actors Not only that but the final texts of the signed involved are not being transparent and the agreements concerning air links and railways newly-elected Kosovar leadership is not connections were not immediately or easily being involved as it should be – transparency made public. Moreover, Albin Kurti was and accountability should lay down the law in adamant in his campaign against corruption the process. Civil society and citizens alike and secrecy of past leadership in Kosovo, should be aware of this and raise their voices from a potential land swap agreement to a to anything going against this democratic NATO-deal by the hands of Hashim Thaci. principle. The agreements are promising and a positive sign, not only for their ambition but in spanning from a more-engaged US ally - yet such positive developments mustn’t be taken blindly. It will be the task of the new government to-be to keep scrutiny high and ensure citizens’ trust is restored in the process, let alone the government. A revived United States engagement in the region and in the Kosovo-Serbia

37 Balkan Insight, ‘’Serbia, Kosovo Leaders Welcome Deal https://balkaninsight.com/2020/02/14/serbia-kosovo- to Restore Rail Link’’, 14 February 2020, via: leaders-welcome-deal-to-restore-rail-link/.

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