Oilman at the Peak of Computers and Satellites to Numeri- Cal Predictions with Supercomputers

SPRING BOOKS COMMENT towards space observations and develop- ENERGY ing the use of computers in meteorology. From the findings of these three men, Fleming expertly weaves a tapestry of broader developments, from early uses Oilman at the peak of computers and satellites to numeri- cal predictions with supercomputers. He Gregor Macdonald applauds a biography of prescient explores intentional weather modification, geologist and energy theorist Marion King Hubbert. radioactive fallout, rocketry, air pollution and electromagnetism. For example, the air movements made apparent when scientist’s work does not always The Oracle of Oil: A researchers tracked the fallout from intersect neatly with the events of Maverick Geologist’s nuclear-bomb tests in the 1950s provided their time, but that was the good Quest for a Sustainable insight into atmospheric circulation. Afortune of US geologist and oilman Marion Future MASON INMAN The penultimate chapter covers what King Hubbert (1903–89). After labouring W. W. Norton: 2016. Fleming calls the birth of atmospheric for decades to perfect forecasting of the oil- science in the late 1950s, coinciding with production limit, he saw his efforts validated planning for the International Geophysical in the energy crises of the early 1970s. His Year in 1957–58. In 1956, Rossby proposed approach would later be known as Hubbert enlarging the definition of meteorology peak theory. shortage of ambition, Hubbert saw geology as to include elements such as atmospheric Journalist Mason Inman’s meticulous a wide-open field, and gate-crashed it. With chemistry and relevant biological pro- biography The Oracle of Oil follows Hub- precocious brilliance, he began to identify cesses. Much of what we regard as con- bert from his youth on the plains of Texas gaps and disorganization in its practices, and temporary developments, such as the through the Great Depression, the Second published his first paper, on fault classifica- understanding of atmospheric composi- World War and the rise of US President tions, as an undergraduate. In 1930, he was tion or geoengineering, were in the minds Ronald Reagan in 1981. But its scope is head-hunted by Columbia University in New of 1950s researchers, Fleming points out. much more expansive. In Hubbert’s story, York City to direct a new effort in geophysics. Modifying the reflectivity of the planet Inman has found a meditation on the Here, Inman’s biography reveals its to avoid harmful climate change was dis- booms and busts that marked thoughtful design, tracing the cussed by Wexler and others as early as twentieth-century economic youthful roots of Hubbert’s 1958. In a 1962 speech, Wexler said: “We growth. Hubbert’s icono- formidable achievements. are in weather control now whether we clastic career forms a The undergrad ponder- know it or not.” Fleming also focuses on perfect arc, from oil’s ing Earth’s folds one the importance of committees in plan- troubling oversupply summer later becomes a ning developments such as the creation of in the 1920s to its rela- breakthrough geologist, the US National Center for Atmospheric tive scarcity after the solving complex scal- Research in 1960, and the role of top peak of US produc- ing problems. The boy researchers in leading these committees. tion in 1971, when the surrounded by oil rigs A historical account has to have bound- US economy suffered becomes a Shell execu- aries, and Fleming barely hints at what oil shocks. tive, aggressively pursuing came after 1960. I found the discussion of As Inman shows, Hub- the hydrological and struc- Edward Lorenz’s work on chaos that led to bert’s impact extends beyond tural complexities of oilfield aspects of probabilistic forecasting dispro- oil: it is an early manifestation of exploration. The young man who portionately brief. ecological economics. At the end of questioned religious faith becomes a What shines through Inventing Atmos- his career, Hubbert remained concerned nonconformist US Geological Survey (USGS) pheric Science is the commitment of three about nuclear waste; was convinced that researcher, insisting that popular forecasts are men to applications of research to society, high rates of growth were environmentally built less on data than on optimism. and their desire to advance our under- destructive; and conjectured that solar Inman’s direct, explanatory style is well standing of weather. This is an inspira- power might be the most viable energy suited to describing the evolution of Hub- tional story, very well told. ■ solution. With regard to growth or sustain- bert’s thinking. At Columbia, Hubbert began ability, Hubbert’s work is an overlooked to ponder the S-curve of growth that has long Alan Thorpe is visiting professor of contribution to US economic history. fascinated observers of economies, biology meteorology at the University of Reading, UK. Arriving at the University of Chicago and natural-resource extraction. He perfected e-mail: [email protected] in Illinois in 1924 with little money but no his technique over decades, from rough The Upright Thinkers Why Information Grows Leonard Mlodinow (Vintage, 2016) César A. Hidalgo (Penguin, 2016) Carrier pigeons once toted stock prices. Today, Economies are computers and information is at instant messaging manages the job. Theoretical war with entropy, claims statistical physicist César physicist Leonard Mlodinow explores how the Hidalgo. He shows how the scientific imagination most human of desires, a thirst for knowledge, needs knowledge and resources to grow, such as grew from Neanderthal hunger pangs to the Chilean copper that ‘feeds’ electronics (see measuring our planet’s orbit around the Sun. Philip Ball’s review: Nature 521, 420–421; 2015). 7 APRIL 2016 | VOL 532 | NATURE | 31 © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved COMMENT SPRING BOOKS estimates of ultimately recoverable US oil NEUROSCIENCE reserves to his eventual winning model: an advanced calculation that incorporated past production, yield per foot of exploration and the tricky variable of reserve growth. Listening in Inman does not, however, cite the work of UK economist William Stanley Jevons, whose 1865 warning about the economy’s over- reliance on coal prefigures the Hubbert story. on yourself Jevons died in 1882, so never saw his predic- tion come true: British coal output peaked in 1913. Hubbert, by contrast, was feted with Douwe Draaisma is intrigued by a study examining both numerous awards, including the Rockefeller ‘the voice within’ and verbal auditory hallucinations. Service Award in 1977, and broad coverage in The New York Times when his previous reports for the government and the USGS hinking about thinking is a curious The Voices Within: were acknowledged for their accuracy. exercise. Most of us probably agree The History and Hubbert’s forecast was not the end of the that much of our own thought pro- Science of How We US oil story. After his death, production con- Tcess takes the form of inner speech. But Talk to Ourselves CHARLES FERNYHOUGH tinued to languish, in accordance with his would we also agree that we hear an inner Profile: 2016. forecast. But with fracking, the United States voice? If not, why would we call it talk- lifted oil production as recently as last year ing at all? Can we experience and observe to levels close to the 1970 peak. Oil produc- inner speech simultaneously, or would this tion is now falling again owing to a price bust be like “trying to turn up the gas quickly — global supply capabilities were created for enough to see how the darkness looks”, in Gustave Flaubert’s 1856 novel Madame demand that failed to materialize. Inman does as US psychologist William James asked Bovary and reports of self-talk by profes- a fine job of handling this recent history. himself in 1890? Each of these questions sional cricketers. He mentions physicist The Oracle of Oil offers valuable insights may lead one into a philosophical forest, Richard Feynman having an argument beyond energy. In the demand-side bust of dense and dark. with himself, and Joan of Arc insisting the 1930s, it shows Hubbert thinking deeply Side-stepping such conceptual intrica- that God talked to her in French, not Latin. about the surplus of labour created partly, in cies, psychologist Charles Fernyhough Today, Fernyhough directs Hearing the his view, by the effects of powerful oil mar- convincingly explores Voice, a research project ried to the newest machines: cars, construc- inner speech from a at Durham University, tion equipment and aircraft. Hubbert was practical perspective. UK, funded by biomedi- co-founder of Technocracy, a group of New In The Voices Within, SILENT SELF-TALK cal charity the Wellcome York intellectuals aiming to prevent future he discusses how people TURNS OUT TO BE A Trust. economic dislocations. Two publications by with aphasia (a speech When I’m invited to keen observers of the low-growth problem — and language disorder write a review, I know Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First that stems from brain ROBUST from experience that it is Century (Seuil, 2013) and Robert Gordon’s damage) may lose their PART OF wise to switch my inner 2012 paper ‘Is US Economic Growth Over?’ sense of inner speech; speech from Dutch, my (see go.nature.com/wblxig) — also explore how deaf people ‘talk MEMORY. native language, to Eng- this territory of limits and sustainability. to themselves’ (mostly lish, which I routinely use In Inman’s work, the oilman emerges as a in sign language, some for scientific communi- restless and prescient figure concerned with by lipreading); how more than 60% of cation. Most bilingual people have no trou- the environment. In writing the first biogra- children have had silent conversations with ble identifying the language that they are phy of Hubbert, Inman has retrieved, if not imaginary friends; and whether people thinking in.

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